3. Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
Sydney is the most
important load in the
country and it is growing
TransGrid and Ausgrid’s
electricity networks are
critical to support this growth
3
4. High load areas
• CBD
• Inner suburbs
• Transport corridors
Key customers
• Sydney CBD
• Sydney Airport
• Port Botany
• Major rail and road links.
Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
5. Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
Complex network built in the 60s and 70s
Networks’ abilities to meet growing need is
degrading
Timing is critical. To have a solution in
place to meet the need we have to act
now
TransGrid and Ausgrid are committed to
an open and open-minded process to find a
reliable and efficient solution
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6. Powering Sydney’s Future – 2014 consultation
• 400 stakeholders representing the public, researchers, industry, government and
regulators participated in a workshop.
• TransGrid and Ausgrid committed to:
o Developing responsive network options – in the PSCR
o Grow demand management using non-network options - in the PSCR and EOI
o Playing active roles in the refinement of standards for a reliable supply at an
efficient cost - engaged with IPART
o Continue to engage and collaborate – we have and continue to do so today
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8. • Approx. 200MW load
from new large
customers
• Estimated 150 ~250MW
from future large scale
redevelopment
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Sydney – growth and additional loads
9. Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Sydney – growth
Forecast demand
growth peak
• Return to demand
forecast growth seen
in 2015 and 2016
• New large customer
loads driving future
growth
• Ausgrid base forecast
is consistent with BIS
Shrapnel forecast
10. Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Deteriorating fluid filled cables
• Ausgrid’s 132kV fluid filled
cables mostly installed in
1960’s and 1970’s
• Ausgrid has approx. 350km
• Repairs are complex and
time consuming
• Ausgrid has an MOU with
the EPA for reducing fluid
leaks over time
11. Failure
history
Leaks
Test
Results
Predictive unavailability model
- History of cable failures with repair times getting longer
- Consistent leaks and poor test results requiring repairs
- All contributing to poor cable availability
Repair
Times
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Deteriorating fluid filled cables
12. • Total cable unavailability
over past 4 years of
approximately 17%
• Cable fluid loss from leaks
has been significant
• Maintenance
requirements continue to
increase
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Deteriorating fluid filled cables
13. Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Planning based on community benefit
• Network energy delivery
capacity is declining
• Customer demand for
energy is increasing
• Shortfall is expected
unserved energy (EUE)
• Trigger point - where
accumulated value of
EUE is greater than cost
of project
Project Trigger Point
15. Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
• Not operating to its full capacity
o Cable 42 CMS showed higher TR (2000s)
o Backfill sampling (to 2009)
o 1st derating - Anders & Orton review (2011)
o Full backfill sampling program (to 2016)
o 2nd derating – Anders (2016)
o Cable and joint sampling (now)
15
Driver 3: Cable 41
• One of two 330kV cables, 20 km long,
built in 1970s, 40 year nominal life
16. Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Proposed new reliability standard
• About fine-tuning price/service level balance
• IPART: ‘Modified n-2 + 0.6 minutes EUSE per year at average demand’
• EUSE equivalent of 20MW (UNSW or Kensington) one hour per year
• An important, evolutionary change but…
• Capacity reductions and load growth put us in deficit from 2017
• Challenge to supply energy, major challenge to supply appropriate capacity
• Key message: we need to know what non-network solutions can deliver
16
17. Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Project trigger point
Energy shortfall (MWh)
18. Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Capacity shortfall (MW)
19. Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Process
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
RIT-T process
Environmental planning process
Implementation phase
Design phase
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• PSCR subs due 13 Jan 2017
• PADR Mar/April 2017
• PADR subs due May/June 2017 (6 weeks)
• PACR July/Aug 2017
21. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
The planning process considers:
Reliability
Cost
Environment
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22. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
In situ replacement of cables
330 kV cable replacement:
• Cable Outage – up to 2-5 years
• High costs – similar to new cable
development
• Access issues
• 4 x the capacity of 132 kV cable
132 kV cable replacement:
• Environmental risk – crossing harbour
• High costs – similar to new cable
development
• Limited improvement to network capability
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23. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
23
New Cables – 330 kV Vs 132 kV
• Limited Capability enhancement from
132 kV option
load growth
Network Development flexibility
• 132 kV = higher costs ($/MW)
• 132 kV = higher community &
environmental impact
132 kV Option
330 kV Option
24. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
New cables – 330 kV vs 132 kV
• Limited Capability enhancement from
132 kV option:
o Load growth
o Network development flexibility
• High costs ($/MW)
• Community and environmental impact
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25. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s East
• 3 out of 6 possible route options were
considered feasible (approx. 26km)
• Environmental impact on national parks
and harbour crossing
• Significant high costs due to the
geography of the area.
• Network limitations: overloading
Sydney’s North to East via 330 kV lines
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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26. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s North
• 4 out of 7 possible route options
were considered feasible (tunnels,
overhead lines, combinations)
• Environmental impact on national
parks and harbour crossing
• Significant costs due to the
geography of the area and the
length of the route
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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27. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s South
• 3 out of 9 possible route options were
considered feasible (tunnels, overhead
lines, combinations)
• Diversity issue:
o Concentrate of 330 kV supply to
CBD from one location
o Part of route is along existing 330kV
cables
• Environmental and community impact on
Georges River National Park and high
density residential area
• Similar costs to Rookwood Road option
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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28. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Rookwood Road
• 13 possible route options were considered
feasible (tunnels, overhead lines,
combinations)
• Provided diversity to supply CBD area
• Utilised existing 330 kV supply capacity from
Sydney’s West to Rookwood Road
• Low costs compared with the Sydney North
and East options
• Relatively low community and environmental
impact
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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29. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Rookwood
Road
Options
Options
2 x 330kV
cables in
stages
2 x 330kV
cables at
once
Remediate
Cable 41
Retire
Cable 41
Operate
Cable 41
at 132kV
Decommission
Ausgrid cables
– 2 stages
Decommission
Ausgrid cables
– 1 stage
1
2
3
4
5
6
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30. Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Storage Curtailment of load
Embedded
generation
Alternatives to network augmentation which address a potential shortage in electricity supply
Network Solution
Non-Network Solutions
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31. The possiblity of non-network
David Bones
Service Group Manager – Power Strategy and Economics
GHD
31
32. Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Non-network comprises of:
• Generation
• Storage
• Demand Management
Non-network components are
1. Unserved energy at risk
2. Project deferral
3. Part of the integrated project solution
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33. Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Inner Sydney’s daily
demand profile
33
34. Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Expected
unserved energy
in 2020-23
without Powering
Sydney’s Future
project
34
36. Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
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Non-network case study – 60MW, 12 Hr, 8 week options
Existing Standby Generation Central Battery Central Power Station
