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OTT Services
Colour to the Internet
Research brief July 2017
Dr. René Arnold
Dr. Anna Schneider
2
Imprint
Authors of this study:
Dr. René Arnold
Head of Department Markets and Perspectives
Contact:
r.arnold@wik.org
+49 (0)2224 92 25 25
Contact details of the scientific institutes:
WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für
Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH
Rhöndorfer Str. 68
53604 Bad Honnef, Germany
Tel.: +49 2224 9225-0
Fax: +49 2224 9225-63
eMail: info(at)wik.org
www.wik.org
General Manager and Director: Dr. Iris Henseler-Unger
Chairman of the Supervisory Board: Winfried Ulmen
Registered: Amtsgericht Siegburg, HRB 7225
Tax No.: 222/5751/0722
VAT No.: DE 123 383 795
Pictures:
Alex Blajan, Alice Moore, Anna Demianenko, Crew, Freestocks, Kaboompics,
Scott Webb, Tina Rataj Berard, Rawpixel, Roman Kraft, Matthew Kane, Freemagebank
Dr. Anna Schneider
Lecturer in Business Psychology
Contact:
anna.schneider@hs-fresenius.de
+49 (0)221 97 31 99 715
Hochschule Fresenius – Fachbereich Wirtschaft & Medien
Business School · Media School · Psychology School
Im Mediapark 4c
50670 Köln, Germany
http://www.hs-fresenius.de
General Manager: Prof. Dr. Marcus Pradel (Chairman),
Prof. Dr. Tobias Engelsleben, Prof. Dr. Stefan Wiedmann
Registered: Amtsgericht Wiesbaden HRB 19044
3
Foreword
Innovative digital services add value for consumers
Almost no industry can withdraw from digitisation today. Indeed, a fundamental structural transformation
of our economy and society is happening. The present study focuses on communications and audio-visual
services. Both types of services are particularly prone to digitisation with over-the-top services taking up
increasing market shares.
Applications like WhatsApp, iMessage or LINE offer various completely new functions compared to SMS
and traditional telephony. In fact, consumers often use these apps to perform almost all actions typically
done on the internet using more traditional websites. With WhatsApp and the like becoming more similar
to the full internet experience, their economic impact is likely to converge too. WIK estimates that for each
10% increase in application use, global GDP will increase by US$1 billion a day.
Music and video streaming give consumers access to virtually endless content libraries at the click of a
button. As consumers turn away from advertising-funded streaming options to subscription-based ones,
musicians and others in the value chain can profit from increasing revenue. Also, there is a trend to
contract local actors and producers to create local content.
Fast broadband everywhere is absolutely necessary for Germany to reap the full potential of the digital
transformation. Smart actions by policy makers to manage the digital transformation will, however, be just
as important for sustainable economic success. Innovative services ought not be impeded by unnecessary
legal or regulatory intervention. When in doubt, policy makers should reduce the level of regulation to
achieve a level playing field for traditional and new actors.
Dr. Iris Henseler-Unger
4
billion US$
additional GDP
for every 10%
increase in use of
WhatsApp & Co.
globally
1 million
more Spotify users
in Germany in 2016
than in 2015
32 4 5thirds
of 18- to 24-year-olds
rarely watch linear
TV any more
of German
smartphone and
video-on-demand
users watches
more than 10 hours
of video on their
smartphones weekly
1
out of 10
Germans send
more than 80%
of their mobile
messages using
applications like
WhatsApp
>
5
Introduction
Over-the-Top (OTT) services use the public internet to create added value for consumers. A prominent
example of these services are applications that enable rich interactions between consumers by sending
pictures and videos, facilitating group chats and offering other innovative functions such as mobile
payment or ordering a taxi. Also, consumers can use OTT services to stream their favourite media
anywhere and anytime.1
Surprisingly, there are limited consistent insights across two or more years for market development of
OTT services in Germany. Consequently, the present study extends two studies2 published by WIK and
Fresenius University of Applied Sciences in 2016 with new data. To achieve comparability over time, this
study revolves around the same research questions as the previous studies. Additionally, the study
provides consumer insights to inform current public debate about algorithms and data privacy.
To gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behaviour, the present study uses a mixed-methods
approach. We surveyed a representative sample of more than 1,000 German consumers. To aid
interpretation of the quantitative results, we also conducted 20 semi-structured interviews with consumers
in Germany.
1 For more information see also: Arnold, René, Christian Hildebrandt, & Martin Waldburger. 2016. "Der Markt für Over-The-Top
Dienste in Deutschland.“ WIK-Diskussionsbeitrag Nr. 409, Bad Honnef.
2 Arnold, René, & Anna Schneider. 2016. OTT Services and Consumers’ Communication Behaviour in Germany. Bad Honnef/Köln:
WIK/HS-Fresenius; Arnold, René, & Anna Schneider. 2016. OTT Streaming Services in Germany. Bad Honnef/Köln: WIK/HS-Fresenius.
6
TV is not broken yet
F-1
F-2
F-3
2015
2016
Some suggest that the final nail is ready to
be hammered into linear TV’s coffin. Our data from
2015 and 2016 may show an increase in use of streaming
services; however, it is also obvious that linear TV is not dead
just yet. On the one hand, for those aged 55 and over as well as
the youngest age group, the share of consumers who solely rely on
linear TV actually increased from 2015 to 2016. Apparently, some consumers
who occasionally tried streaming returned to the experience that they are used to.
On the other hand, the share of consumers who watch all their TV content online
has sharply increased in the same period. The strongest increase is found for
25- to 34-year-olds. In this age group, 22% only watch TV online. That is
almost the same figure as 18- to 24-year-olds, the group with the
highest share of online-only TV consumers in 2015 (21%).
In 2016, this figure increased to 28%.
More than
two-thirdsof 18- to 24-year-olds rarely watch
linear TV any more
F-1: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations.
F-2: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations.
F-3: Trade publications and official communications by Netflix.
7
F-4 F-5
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
22%
25%
16%
23%
14%
12%
12%
10%
Share of video streaming users by age groups
in Germany
7%
25%
62%
16%
36%
38%
2015
2016
“I have done that […]
during the summer on
the terrace with my tablet
watching a video or
Formula One is on in the
background .” (Kai, 51)
“Normal TV I watch on my
TV set. For streaming, I
use my laptop and tablet
and smartphone.”
(Matthias, 31)
The identified increase in video-streaming users in Germany is also met by
changes in viewing habits and usage intensity of video streaming. This is most
obvious with 35- to 44-year-olds who significantly increased their time watching
TV content online from 2015 to 2016. In sum, almost a quarter of consumers
in this age group watches 11 or more hours of video on the internet weekly.
Within this, smartphones play an increasingly important role as a viewing
device. In 2015, the most common usage pattern was to watch less than one
hour per week on a smartphone. In 2016, only 38% of those who watch videos
on smartphones limited their viewing to less than one hour per week. Around
10% of Germans watching videos on their smartphones use a it 21 or more
hours per week to watch online videos.
.
6% 10%
F-4: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations; reference: video on demand users in Germany.
F-5: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations; reference: video on demand / smartphone users
in Germany.
18-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55+ years
27%
28%
Share of video streaming
use on smartphones
Less than 1 hour use per week
1 to 10 hours use per week
11 to 20 hours use per week
21+ hours use per week
8
Share of users
in Germany
Share of regular
users in %1
Das Erste Mediathek
10.3 million
Amazon Instant Video
9.7 million
YouTube
8.9 million
Netflix
4.9 million
Maxdome
2.4 million
73%
74%
73%
79%
51%
71%
76%
82%
88%
62%
74%
71%
66%
70%
47%
Women are the most
loyal viewers
Women use
streaming services
on average in parallel
Men typically use
2
3
“Sometimes I watch series on my
laptop. Like some weeks ago, I did
that all the time. I watch series
constantly.” (Anne, 19)
“So, watching Game of Thrones four
days in a row – no problem.”
(Cathrine, 38)
“When I watch a [video] stream, I
have time […] But it is really about
not being tied to any specific
schedule. I can do what I want
whenever I want.” (Catrin, 34)
Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations; reference: video on demand users in Germany.
1 Number of users (weekly)/number of users (last 30 days) in percent.
9
Finding the right match
ignites the spark
with consumers
Music streaming servicesVideo streaming servicesSearch engines
completely
disagree
completely
agree
Data collection by the service
Data collection and analysis for personalised
advertisements by the service
Data collection and sharing with third parties for personalised advertisements
Germans tend to be more sensitive about data privacy than
consumers in other countries. Interestingly, across all countries,
actual consumer behaviour does not reflect their stated privacy
concerns.1 Asked about their attitudes towards data collection,
analysis and sharing by various OTT services with the aim of
personalising advertisements, consumers were sceptical of these
practices in general. In fact, consumers by and large disagree with
these practices regardless of the service they use.
More detailed analysis reveals statistically significant differences
for music and video streaming compared to using search engines.
Consumers are more willing to have their data collected and
analysed by the streaming services than by search engines. The
interviews illustrate that consumers recognise an added value with
streaming services’ personalised recommendations which may
explain their increased willingness to accept data collection with
these services. Having these services share their data is, however,
similarly unacceptable for consumers as with other services.
“If the selection fits 100% – well, that’s great. I still have the chance to say that I don’t
want this and just switch the whole thing off.” (Mia, 52)
“Data collection for advertisements relating to stuff that I bought or recommending
videos that I might like based on similar users is all right with me; anything beyond
that, like profiling, I find quite a lot more dangerous.” (Hannes, 23)
“Often I simply lack ideas and drive. If that can be done by the machine […] and I
really like that, I have sort of a set of recommendations and make my personal choice
based on them. That compensates for my lack of ideas.” (Matthias, 31)
10
Music streaming more popular
Music streaming continues its march
through the age groups. The greatest
increase in regular music-streaming users
can be found in the 25- to 34-year-old group.
For 14% of them, online music streaming is the only
source they use to listen to music.
Spotify is very successful at gaining new paying subscribers. From 2015 to 2016
alone, they doubled the share of paying subscribers. Today, every second Spotify
user has a premium subscription.
.
F-6
F-6: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations.
F-7: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations.
F-8: Trade publications and official communications by Spotify.
2015
2016
F-7
F-8
11
Spotify gains
million new users
in 2016
3 In total,1018
24
-
25
34
-
35
44
-
45
54
-
55
+
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
million Germans
use the service
39%
46%
13%
30%
11%
13%
7%
12%
6%
6%
Spotify has increased its user base, particularly with
25- to 34-year-olds. Competitors like Apple Music and
Amazon Prime Music cannot quite keep up with this rapid
growth: in Germany, Apple Music has increased its user base from
1.9 to 2.6 million, and Amazon has remained constant at around 7 million users.
F-9: Share of Spotify users by age in Germany
F-9: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations.
12
Music is always on
The guitar can stay at home. Music streaming and mobile broadband
mean favourite songs can be played on smartphones, tablets or other
mobile devices anywhere and anytime. Quick mobile broadband is
essential for this to be a fun experience. Indeed, users of streaming
services are more likely to have an 4G mobile plan
than the average consumer in Germany.
This is especially true for users of
Tidal, a particularly data-intensive
service for high-resolution
music files.
Average share of LTE contracts
= 43.1%
75.3%
68.6%68.2%67.3%
57.1%
53.0%
Tidal
AppleMusic
GooglePlay
Music
Deezer
Amazon
PrimeMusic
Spotify
F-10: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations.
F-10
13
More consumers
are willing to pay for
streaming services
Share of
consumers
willing to pay for
video streaming
Share of
consumers
willing to pay for
music streaming
Downloading music and films illegally is a thing
of the past for many. As the figures shown on
the preceding pages illustrate, legal streaming
services are becoming more and more popular.
While many video-streaming services count
on subscription-only payment models, music
streaming can be used for free as long as users
listen to advertisements in-between songs.
However, consumers’ willingness to accept
their favourite songs being interrupted appears
to be dwindling. The share of consumers who
are willing to pay for music streaming increased
from 2015 to 2016 by almost a third.
That’s good news for Spotify and others. Also,
this finding underscores Tim Cook’s strategic
decision not to offer a freemium version of Apple
Music. Notably, 15% of German Apple users
have opted for a subscription to Apple Music.
.
F-11: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations.
F-11
31%
32%
30%
22%
2015 2016 2015 2016
14
From 2015 to 2016, there was little
change in the share of consumers who
rarely or never use WhatsApp and similar applications.
However, heavy users of OTT services tended to increase
their usage during the same time period. Thus, the share of consumers
who use only OTT services for sending and receiving messages has grown,
in particular with young consumer segments.
Farewell to the SMS?
F-12
F-13
F-14
2015
2016
F-12: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations.
F-13: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations.
F-14: Trade publications and official communications by WhatsApp.
15
Even though WhatsApp springs to mind immediately when one thinks of OTT services and
communication, many other interaction applications are popular in Germany and worldwide.
They range from well-known general applications such as iMessage, KakaoTalk, LINE, Signal,
Skype, Snapchat, Threema, Viber and WeChat, to applications that focus on specific target
groups like Disney Mix or Care Messenger, to applications popular locally like Hike (India),
Jongla (Nigeria) and 2go (South Africa). In total, WIK analysed 139 of the most popular
applications worldwide.1
One common trait for all these applications is that they innovate constantly. They keep adding
new functions such as mobile payment, ordering a taxi, or even sending messages without a
broadband connection. This constant development means their economic impact is getting
closer to that of the full internet experience. WIK estimates that a 10% increase in the use of
these apps will lead to a GDP increase of approximately US$1 billion daily, based on analysis
of 164 countries over 16 years (2000 to 2015) using an econometric model.
A lot more than just WhatsApp
1 Arnold, René, Christian Hildebrandt, Peter Kroon, & Serpil Tas. 2017. The economic
and societal value of Rich Interaction Applications. Bad Honnef: WIK.
2 We collate online applications whose core function is to enable rich interaction via text,
voice, pictures, videos, etc. under the banner of Rich Interaction Applications (RIAs).
Furthermore, a look into the
origins of OTT services that
focus on enabling rich inter-
action shows that they follow
an evolutionary path that is
completely different from that
of SMS. In fact, SMS only
became really popular when
consumers were already
sending messages with
pictures and videos on AIM,
ICQ and Live. Consumers
took the wealth of function
they were used to with them
when many other online activities migrated to the smartphone.
16
Telephony services in Germany
F-15
2015
2016
F-16
2015
2016
Comparing consumer preferences for traditional telephony services
and VoIP as well as video call services in 2015 and 2016, we find only
minor changes. Notably, young consumers’ preference for FaceTime
and WhatsApp calls appears to have increased. For international calls,
the share of those who use only traditional telephony has increased for
those aged 35 and over. New tariffs that have already abolished
roaming fees within the EU may be the reason for this development.
F-15, F-16: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations.
F-17, F-18: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations.
F-17 F-18
17
The present study underscores the significance of OTT services for consumers in Germany.
The content and services they offer make the internet valuable and even indispensable for
them.
The music industry and most TV stations have aligned to new online consumer preferences.
Music-streaming services list almost all artists in their libraries nowadays. Equally, commercial
and non-commercial video content is easily available online. Indeed, digitisation is in fast-
forward mode, even with traditional players in the media industry.
With communications services, the evolutionary trajectories of traditional channels such as
telephony and SMS do not appear to converge as much with OTT services. Instead, it is often
argued that VoIP and in particular messenger applications that offer functions like sending
pictures and videos substitute traditional services. First and foremost, our study shows that
these rich interaction applications predate the SMS. Furthermore, our survey cannot confirm
the alleged substitution.
.
Outlook
Only conventional
communications
services
Conventional
communications
and OTT services
Only OTT services
22% 19%
77% 79%
1% 2%
Use of different types of
communications services in Germany
2015
2016
F-19: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and in 2016; WIK calculations.
F-19
In fact, very few German consumers rely
solely on OTT services to communicate:
only around 2% of German consumers
did so in 2016, representing less than a
1% increase from 2015. The vast
majority of German consumers use the
various communication channels side
by side. Depending on how close a
specific acquaintance is and the aim
and urgency of the matter, consumers
will deliberately select a corresponding
communication channel.
18
About this study:
The online survey for this study was conducted with two representative samples of 1,027
consumers between 30th November 2015 and 7th December 2015 and 1.003 consumers
between 30th November 2016 and 5th December 2016 respectively by the international market
research institute YouGov. The results were weighted to draw representative conclusions for the
German population (age 18+). Additionally, 20 qualitative interviews were conducted in November
and December 2016.
About WIK:
Founded in 1982, WIK (Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste)
in Bad Honnef, Germany offers consultancy for public and private clients around the world. Its
focus is on the telecommunication, Internet, post and energy sectors giving advice on policy,
regulatory and strategic issues.
More information is available at: www.wik.org.
.
About Fresenius University of Applied Sciences:
Founded in 1848 by Carl Remigius Fresenius, and with its roots in the Fresenius Chemical
Laboratory, the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences can look back on over 168 years of
privately funded educational tradition in Germany. True to the intent of its founder, it combines
teaching, research, and practical application.
More information is available at: http://www.hs-fresenius.de/en.

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OTT Services - Colour to the internet

  • 1. OTT Services Colour to the Internet Research brief July 2017 Dr. René Arnold Dr. Anna Schneider
  • 2. 2 Imprint Authors of this study: Dr. René Arnold Head of Department Markets and Perspectives Contact: r.arnold@wik.org +49 (0)2224 92 25 25 Contact details of the scientific institutes: WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH Rhöndorfer Str. 68 53604 Bad Honnef, Germany Tel.: +49 2224 9225-0 Fax: +49 2224 9225-63 eMail: info(at)wik.org www.wik.org General Manager and Director: Dr. Iris Henseler-Unger Chairman of the Supervisory Board: Winfried Ulmen Registered: Amtsgericht Siegburg, HRB 7225 Tax No.: 222/5751/0722 VAT No.: DE 123 383 795 Pictures: Alex Blajan, Alice Moore, Anna Demianenko, Crew, Freestocks, Kaboompics, Scott Webb, Tina Rataj Berard, Rawpixel, Roman Kraft, Matthew Kane, Freemagebank Dr. Anna Schneider Lecturer in Business Psychology Contact: anna.schneider@hs-fresenius.de +49 (0)221 97 31 99 715 Hochschule Fresenius – Fachbereich Wirtschaft & Medien Business School · Media School · Psychology School Im Mediapark 4c 50670 Köln, Germany http://www.hs-fresenius.de General Manager: Prof. Dr. Marcus Pradel (Chairman), Prof. Dr. Tobias Engelsleben, Prof. Dr. Stefan Wiedmann Registered: Amtsgericht Wiesbaden HRB 19044
  • 3. 3 Foreword Innovative digital services add value for consumers Almost no industry can withdraw from digitisation today. Indeed, a fundamental structural transformation of our economy and society is happening. The present study focuses on communications and audio-visual services. Both types of services are particularly prone to digitisation with over-the-top services taking up increasing market shares. Applications like WhatsApp, iMessage or LINE offer various completely new functions compared to SMS and traditional telephony. In fact, consumers often use these apps to perform almost all actions typically done on the internet using more traditional websites. With WhatsApp and the like becoming more similar to the full internet experience, their economic impact is likely to converge too. WIK estimates that for each 10% increase in application use, global GDP will increase by US$1 billion a day. Music and video streaming give consumers access to virtually endless content libraries at the click of a button. As consumers turn away from advertising-funded streaming options to subscription-based ones, musicians and others in the value chain can profit from increasing revenue. Also, there is a trend to contract local actors and producers to create local content. Fast broadband everywhere is absolutely necessary for Germany to reap the full potential of the digital transformation. Smart actions by policy makers to manage the digital transformation will, however, be just as important for sustainable economic success. Innovative services ought not be impeded by unnecessary legal or regulatory intervention. When in doubt, policy makers should reduce the level of regulation to achieve a level playing field for traditional and new actors. Dr. Iris Henseler-Unger
  • 4. 4 billion US$ additional GDP for every 10% increase in use of WhatsApp & Co. globally 1 million more Spotify users in Germany in 2016 than in 2015 32 4 5thirds of 18- to 24-year-olds rarely watch linear TV any more of German smartphone and video-on-demand users watches more than 10 hours of video on their smartphones weekly 1 out of 10 Germans send more than 80% of their mobile messages using applications like WhatsApp >
  • 5. 5 Introduction Over-the-Top (OTT) services use the public internet to create added value for consumers. A prominent example of these services are applications that enable rich interactions between consumers by sending pictures and videos, facilitating group chats and offering other innovative functions such as mobile payment or ordering a taxi. Also, consumers can use OTT services to stream their favourite media anywhere and anytime.1 Surprisingly, there are limited consistent insights across two or more years for market development of OTT services in Germany. Consequently, the present study extends two studies2 published by WIK and Fresenius University of Applied Sciences in 2016 with new data. To achieve comparability over time, this study revolves around the same research questions as the previous studies. Additionally, the study provides consumer insights to inform current public debate about algorithms and data privacy. To gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behaviour, the present study uses a mixed-methods approach. We surveyed a representative sample of more than 1,000 German consumers. To aid interpretation of the quantitative results, we also conducted 20 semi-structured interviews with consumers in Germany. 1 For more information see also: Arnold, René, Christian Hildebrandt, & Martin Waldburger. 2016. "Der Markt für Over-The-Top Dienste in Deutschland.“ WIK-Diskussionsbeitrag Nr. 409, Bad Honnef. 2 Arnold, René, & Anna Schneider. 2016. OTT Services and Consumers’ Communication Behaviour in Germany. Bad Honnef/Köln: WIK/HS-Fresenius; Arnold, René, & Anna Schneider. 2016. OTT Streaming Services in Germany. Bad Honnef/Köln: WIK/HS-Fresenius.
  • 6. 6 TV is not broken yet F-1 F-2 F-3 2015 2016 Some suggest that the final nail is ready to be hammered into linear TV’s coffin. Our data from 2015 and 2016 may show an increase in use of streaming services; however, it is also obvious that linear TV is not dead just yet. On the one hand, for those aged 55 and over as well as the youngest age group, the share of consumers who solely rely on linear TV actually increased from 2015 to 2016. Apparently, some consumers who occasionally tried streaming returned to the experience that they are used to. On the other hand, the share of consumers who watch all their TV content online has sharply increased in the same period. The strongest increase is found for 25- to 34-year-olds. In this age group, 22% only watch TV online. That is almost the same figure as 18- to 24-year-olds, the group with the highest share of online-only TV consumers in 2015 (21%). In 2016, this figure increased to 28%. More than two-thirdsof 18- to 24-year-olds rarely watch linear TV any more F-1: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations. F-2: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations. F-3: Trade publications and official communications by Netflix.
  • 7. 7 F-4 F-5 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 22% 25% 16% 23% 14% 12% 12% 10% Share of video streaming users by age groups in Germany 7% 25% 62% 16% 36% 38% 2015 2016 “I have done that […] during the summer on the terrace with my tablet watching a video or Formula One is on in the background .” (Kai, 51) “Normal TV I watch on my TV set. For streaming, I use my laptop and tablet and smartphone.” (Matthias, 31) The identified increase in video-streaming users in Germany is also met by changes in viewing habits and usage intensity of video streaming. This is most obvious with 35- to 44-year-olds who significantly increased their time watching TV content online from 2015 to 2016. In sum, almost a quarter of consumers in this age group watches 11 or more hours of video on the internet weekly. Within this, smartphones play an increasingly important role as a viewing device. In 2015, the most common usage pattern was to watch less than one hour per week on a smartphone. In 2016, only 38% of those who watch videos on smartphones limited their viewing to less than one hour per week. Around 10% of Germans watching videos on their smartphones use a it 21 or more hours per week to watch online videos. . 6% 10% F-4: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations; reference: video on demand users in Germany. F-5: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations; reference: video on demand / smartphone users in Germany. 18-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55+ years 27% 28% Share of video streaming use on smartphones Less than 1 hour use per week 1 to 10 hours use per week 11 to 20 hours use per week 21+ hours use per week
  • 8. 8 Share of users in Germany Share of regular users in %1 Das Erste Mediathek 10.3 million Amazon Instant Video 9.7 million YouTube 8.9 million Netflix 4.9 million Maxdome 2.4 million 73% 74% 73% 79% 51% 71% 76% 82% 88% 62% 74% 71% 66% 70% 47% Women are the most loyal viewers Women use streaming services on average in parallel Men typically use 2 3 “Sometimes I watch series on my laptop. Like some weeks ago, I did that all the time. I watch series constantly.” (Anne, 19) “So, watching Game of Thrones four days in a row – no problem.” (Cathrine, 38) “When I watch a [video] stream, I have time […] But it is really about not being tied to any specific schedule. I can do what I want whenever I want.” (Catrin, 34) Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations; reference: video on demand users in Germany. 1 Number of users (weekly)/number of users (last 30 days) in percent.
  • 9. 9 Finding the right match ignites the spark with consumers Music streaming servicesVideo streaming servicesSearch engines completely disagree completely agree Data collection by the service Data collection and analysis for personalised advertisements by the service Data collection and sharing with third parties for personalised advertisements Germans tend to be more sensitive about data privacy than consumers in other countries. Interestingly, across all countries, actual consumer behaviour does not reflect their stated privacy concerns.1 Asked about their attitudes towards data collection, analysis and sharing by various OTT services with the aim of personalising advertisements, consumers were sceptical of these practices in general. In fact, consumers by and large disagree with these practices regardless of the service they use. More detailed analysis reveals statistically significant differences for music and video streaming compared to using search engines. Consumers are more willing to have their data collected and analysed by the streaming services than by search engines. The interviews illustrate that consumers recognise an added value with streaming services’ personalised recommendations which may explain their increased willingness to accept data collection with these services. Having these services share their data is, however, similarly unacceptable for consumers as with other services. “If the selection fits 100% – well, that’s great. I still have the chance to say that I don’t want this and just switch the whole thing off.” (Mia, 52) “Data collection for advertisements relating to stuff that I bought or recommending videos that I might like based on similar users is all right with me; anything beyond that, like profiling, I find quite a lot more dangerous.” (Hannes, 23) “Often I simply lack ideas and drive. If that can be done by the machine […] and I really like that, I have sort of a set of recommendations and make my personal choice based on them. That compensates for my lack of ideas.” (Matthias, 31)
  • 10. 10 Music streaming more popular Music streaming continues its march through the age groups. The greatest increase in regular music-streaming users can be found in the 25- to 34-year-old group. For 14% of them, online music streaming is the only source they use to listen to music. Spotify is very successful at gaining new paying subscribers. From 2015 to 2016 alone, they doubled the share of paying subscribers. Today, every second Spotify user has a premium subscription. . F-6 F-6: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations. F-7: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations. F-8: Trade publications and official communications by Spotify. 2015 2016 F-7 F-8
  • 11. 11 Spotify gains million new users in 2016 3 In total,1018 24 - 25 34 - 35 44 - 45 54 - 55 + 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 million Germans use the service 39% 46% 13% 30% 11% 13% 7% 12% 6% 6% Spotify has increased its user base, particularly with 25- to 34-year-olds. Competitors like Apple Music and Amazon Prime Music cannot quite keep up with this rapid growth: in Germany, Apple Music has increased its user base from 1.9 to 2.6 million, and Amazon has remained constant at around 7 million users. F-9: Share of Spotify users by age in Germany F-9: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations.
  • 12. 12 Music is always on The guitar can stay at home. Music streaming and mobile broadband mean favourite songs can be played on smartphones, tablets or other mobile devices anywhere and anytime. Quick mobile broadband is essential for this to be a fun experience. Indeed, users of streaming services are more likely to have an 4G mobile plan than the average consumer in Germany. This is especially true for users of Tidal, a particularly data-intensive service for high-resolution music files. Average share of LTE contracts = 43.1% 75.3% 68.6%68.2%67.3% 57.1% 53.0% Tidal AppleMusic GooglePlay Music Deezer Amazon PrimeMusic Spotify F-10: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations. F-10
  • 13. 13 More consumers are willing to pay for streaming services Share of consumers willing to pay for video streaming Share of consumers willing to pay for music streaming Downloading music and films illegally is a thing of the past for many. As the figures shown on the preceding pages illustrate, legal streaming services are becoming more and more popular. While many video-streaming services count on subscription-only payment models, music streaming can be used for free as long as users listen to advertisements in-between songs. However, consumers’ willingness to accept their favourite songs being interrupted appears to be dwindling. The share of consumers who are willing to pay for music streaming increased from 2015 to 2016 by almost a third. That’s good news for Spotify and others. Also, this finding underscores Tim Cook’s strategic decision not to offer a freemium version of Apple Music. Notably, 15% of German Apple users have opted for a subscription to Apple Music. . F-11: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015 and 2016; WIK calculations. F-11 31% 32% 30% 22% 2015 2016 2015 2016
  • 14. 14 From 2015 to 2016, there was little change in the share of consumers who rarely or never use WhatsApp and similar applications. However, heavy users of OTT services tended to increase their usage during the same time period. Thus, the share of consumers who use only OTT services for sending and receiving messages has grown, in particular with young consumer segments. Farewell to the SMS? F-12 F-13 F-14 2015 2016 F-12: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations. F-13: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations. F-14: Trade publications and official communications by WhatsApp.
  • 15. 15 Even though WhatsApp springs to mind immediately when one thinks of OTT services and communication, many other interaction applications are popular in Germany and worldwide. They range from well-known general applications such as iMessage, KakaoTalk, LINE, Signal, Skype, Snapchat, Threema, Viber and WeChat, to applications that focus on specific target groups like Disney Mix or Care Messenger, to applications popular locally like Hike (India), Jongla (Nigeria) and 2go (South Africa). In total, WIK analysed 139 of the most popular applications worldwide.1 One common trait for all these applications is that they innovate constantly. They keep adding new functions such as mobile payment, ordering a taxi, or even sending messages without a broadband connection. This constant development means their economic impact is getting closer to that of the full internet experience. WIK estimates that a 10% increase in the use of these apps will lead to a GDP increase of approximately US$1 billion daily, based on analysis of 164 countries over 16 years (2000 to 2015) using an econometric model. A lot more than just WhatsApp 1 Arnold, René, Christian Hildebrandt, Peter Kroon, & Serpil Tas. 2017. The economic and societal value of Rich Interaction Applications. Bad Honnef: WIK. 2 We collate online applications whose core function is to enable rich interaction via text, voice, pictures, videos, etc. under the banner of Rich Interaction Applications (RIAs). Furthermore, a look into the origins of OTT services that focus on enabling rich inter- action shows that they follow an evolutionary path that is completely different from that of SMS. In fact, SMS only became really popular when consumers were already sending messages with pictures and videos on AIM, ICQ and Live. Consumers took the wealth of function they were used to with them when many other online activities migrated to the smartphone.
  • 16. 16 Telephony services in Germany F-15 2015 2016 F-16 2015 2016 Comparing consumer preferences for traditional telephony services and VoIP as well as video call services in 2015 and 2016, we find only minor changes. Notably, young consumers’ preference for FaceTime and WhatsApp calls appears to have increased. For international calls, the share of those who use only traditional telephony has increased for those aged 35 and over. New tariffs that have already abolished roaming fees within the EU may be the reason for this development. F-15, F-16: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2015; WIK calculations. F-17, F-18: Representative survey n > 1,000 in 2016; WIK calculations. F-17 F-18
  • 17. 17 The present study underscores the significance of OTT services for consumers in Germany. The content and services they offer make the internet valuable and even indispensable for them. The music industry and most TV stations have aligned to new online consumer preferences. Music-streaming services list almost all artists in their libraries nowadays. Equally, commercial and non-commercial video content is easily available online. Indeed, digitisation is in fast- forward mode, even with traditional players in the media industry. With communications services, the evolutionary trajectories of traditional channels such as telephony and SMS do not appear to converge as much with OTT services. Instead, it is often argued that VoIP and in particular messenger applications that offer functions like sending pictures and videos substitute traditional services. First and foremost, our study shows that these rich interaction applications predate the SMS. Furthermore, our survey cannot confirm the alleged substitution. . Outlook Only conventional communications services Conventional communications and OTT services Only OTT services 22% 19% 77% 79% 1% 2% Use of different types of communications services in Germany 2015 2016 F-19: Representative surveys n > 1,000 in 2015 and in 2016; WIK calculations. F-19 In fact, very few German consumers rely solely on OTT services to communicate: only around 2% of German consumers did so in 2016, representing less than a 1% increase from 2015. The vast majority of German consumers use the various communication channels side by side. Depending on how close a specific acquaintance is and the aim and urgency of the matter, consumers will deliberately select a corresponding communication channel.
  • 18. 18 About this study: The online survey for this study was conducted with two representative samples of 1,027 consumers between 30th November 2015 and 7th December 2015 and 1.003 consumers between 30th November 2016 and 5th December 2016 respectively by the international market research institute YouGov. The results were weighted to draw representative conclusions for the German population (age 18+). Additionally, 20 qualitative interviews were conducted in November and December 2016. About WIK: Founded in 1982, WIK (Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste) in Bad Honnef, Germany offers consultancy for public and private clients around the world. Its focus is on the telecommunication, Internet, post and energy sectors giving advice on policy, regulatory and strategic issues. More information is available at: www.wik.org. . About Fresenius University of Applied Sciences: Founded in 1848 by Carl Remigius Fresenius, and with its roots in the Fresenius Chemical Laboratory, the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences can look back on over 168 years of privately funded educational tradition in Germany. True to the intent of its founder, it combines teaching, research, and practical application. More information is available at: http://www.hs-fresenius.de/en.