A Summary of the US Economy through Corporate Finance
1. Macro through (Corporate) Micro
Third Quarter 2015
Technology enables access to data in ways that were not possible prior.
Calcbench is designed to help finance leaders collect and analyze hard to find competitor,
customer, and supplier financial data in near real time to help them make more informed
decisions.
What can our data tell you about the greater US economic engine and
associated trends?
Below is a chart that shows a very small sample of metrics that Calcbench maintains. The bars
represent Year over Year aggregate changes in Revenues, Capital Expenditures, Cost Of
Revenue (aka Cost of Goods Sold), SG&A, Operating Expenses, Dividends paid to shareholders
and Cash.1,2
Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request 1
1. Over 3500 firms in sample. Financial firms excluded. Calcbench to publish financials services report (forthcoming)
2. Calcbench DB normalizes over 300+ metrics. These are 11 of the more commonly used.
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
3rd Quarter 2015 Year over Year Change by Metric
2. App.
Mat,
(9%)
AMD
(4%)
Revenue Drop
Revenues at the corporate level are down by 6.25% year over year. In
dollar terms, that reflects over $180 billion dollars in sales that did not
happen in Q3 2015 as opposed to Q3 2014.
Why?
Let’s start with the commodities complex, specifically energy and more
specifically oil. Close to 90% of the drop in sales is from 3 industry
groups. Petroleum Refining, Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas.
Petroleum Refiners, were the biggest contributors and shown in the table
below contributing to more than 50% of the total drop! (Note : All values
in $ mm):
2
1 Calcbench uses “net” capex. Small firms increase is over lower base.
Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request
Revenue PY_Revenue Rev Diff
Exxon Mobil Corp 65,679.00$ 103,566.00$ 37,887.00-$
Chevron Corp 32,767.00$ 51,822.00$ 19,055.00-$
Phillips 66 25,792.00$ 40,417.00$ 14,625.00-$
Valero Energy Corp/TX 22,579.00$ 34,408.00$ 11,829.00-$
Marathon Petroleum Corp 18,716.00$ 25,438.00$ 6,722.00-$
Conocophillips 7,262.00$ 12,080.00$ 4,818.00-$
Total 172,795.00$ 267,731.00$ 94,936.00-$
3. Top 50 companies control 39.3% of all US Revenue in Q3 2015
versus 38.9% of all US Revenue in Q3 2015!*
3Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request
Top 50 Revenue Firms with % of Revenue
Top 50 Firms % Revenue The Rest
*At time of publication, Wal-Mart had not published it’s revenue in the form of a 10-Q. WMT was not included in prior
years results either.
Exxon Mobil Corp 2.4% Johnson & Johnson 0.6%
Apple Inc 1.9% Archer Daniels Midland Co 0.6%
Mckesson Corp 1.8% PROCTER & GAMBLE Co 0.6%
At&T Inc. 1.4% Pepsico Inc 0.6%
General Motors Co 1.4% Intel Corp 0.5%
CVS HEALTH Corp 1.4% United Parcel Service Inc 0.5%
Ford Motor Co 1.4% United Technologies Corp 0.5%
Costco Wholesale Corp 1.3% Cisco Systems, Inc. 0.5%
Verizon Communications Inc 1.2% Sysco Corp 0.5%
Chevron Corp 1.2% Fedex Corp 0.4%
General Electric Co 1.2% Pfizer Inc 0.4%
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. 1.0% Dow Chemical Co /DE/ 0.4%
Cardinal Health Inc 1.0% Lockheed Martin Corp 0.4%
Boeing Co 0.9% Coca Cola Co 0.4%
Phillips 66 0.9% Delta Air Lines Inc /DE/ 0.4%
Amazon Com Inc 0.9% Caterpillar Inc 0.4%
Express Scripts Holding Co. 0.9% Bunge LTD 0.4%
Valero Energy Corp/TX 0.8% American Airlines Group Inc. 0.4%
Fca Us Llc 0.8% Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. 0.4%
Microsoft Corp 0.7% Ingram Micro Inc 0.4%
Philip Morris Intl Inc. 0.7% Tyson Foods Inc 0.4%
IBM 0.7% United Continental Holdings 0.4%
Marathon Petroleum Corp 0.7% Merck & Co., Inc. 0.4%
Google Inc. 0.7% HCA Holdings, Inc. 0.4%
Comcast Corp 0.7% Honeywell International Inc 0.3%
4. App.
Mat,
(9%)
AMD
(4%)
Capital Expenditures may serve as an indicator of the confidence of a
firm. When taken as an aggregate, the confidence level of industry
becomes apparent. In Q3 2015 CAPEX shrunk by 9% over Q3 2014. The
trend holds across firm sizes as large and midsize firms are spending less
year over year. A silver lining is in the small space (third quartile) with a
2.1% increase.
4
1 Calcbench uses “net” capex.
Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request
$185,000
$190,000
$195,000
$200,000
$205,000
$210,000
$215,000
$220,000
$225,000
Q3 2014 Q3 2015
Capex ($ MM)
Large Mid Small Micro
Q3 2014 $206,223,723,221 $12,140,737,197 $1,289,512,519 $46,825,982
Q3 2015 $187,217,517,994 $11,100,609,364 $1,316,932,927 $45,727,058
Pct Chg. -9.2% -8.6% 2.1% -2.3%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
$-
$50,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$150,000,000,000
$200,000,000,000
$250,000,000,000
YoY Capital Expenditures By Firm Size
Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.
Capital Expenditures
5. Average cash on the balance sheet is down by 2.5% YoY. The chart below is
aggregated by Sector (based on 2 digit SIC Code). But some sectors (e.g. Misc
Retail) have increased their cash holdings.
5Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request
Increased CashDecreased Cash
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
YoY % Change in Cash
Change in Cash
Cash Pct Change YoY
Automative Dealers & Service Stations -23%
Printing & Publishing -24%
Communications -29%
Paper & Allied Products -34%
Coal Mining -42%
Cash Pct Change YoY
Miscellaneous Retail 45%
Nonmetallic Minerals, Except Fuels 28%
Wholesale Trade - Nondurable Goods 26%
Motion Pictures 25%
Water Transportation 20%
6. 6
Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request
Operating Expenses
Overall, Operating Expenses grew 7.7% Year over Year and SG&A
expenses were up 7.7% but Costs of Revenues were down by 7.45%,
indicating tighter input cost controls in the large firms.
Large Mid Small Micro
Q3 2014 $658,735,643,70 $59,462,948,858 $11,798,154,323 $1,044,837,195
Q3 2015 $707,647,382,84 $65,756,860,665 $12,782,973,841 $890,590,142
Pct Chg. 7.4% 10.6% 8.3% -14.8%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
$-
$200,000,000,000
$400,000,000,000
$600,000,000,000
$800,000,000,000
YoY Operating Expenses By Firm Size
Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.
Large Mid Small Micro
Q3 2014 $355,601,316,54 $37,928,525,580 $7,182,049,983 $758,241,196
Q3 2015 $363,523,685,92 $40,493,486,550 $7,712,932,376 $643,130,307
Pct Chg. 2.2% 6.8% 7.4% -15.2%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
$-
$100,000,000,000
$200,000,000,000
$300,000,000,000
$400,000,000,000
YoY SG&A By Firm Size
Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.
Large Mid Small Micro
Q3 2014 $1,677,789,847 $140,010,023,1 $14,323,783,31 $533,780,982
Q3 2015 $1,538,272,140 $143,607,610,6 $13,594,697,73 $572,914,536
Pct Chg. -8.3% 2.6% -5.1% 7.3%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
$-
$500,000,000,000
$1,000,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000,000
YoY Cost of Revenue By Firm Size
Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.
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7Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request