RIWC_PARA_A041 Impact of Early Retirement in Germany
1. Consequences of demographic
change on rehabilitation in German
Pension Insurance
Uwe Egner, Stephan Mäder, Nadine Vorsatz
German Federal Pension Insurance (Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund)
23rd
Rehabilitation International World Congress
25th
of October – 27nd
of October 2016, Edinburgh, Scotland
1
2. Agenda
1. German Federal Pension Insurance (GFPI) – the institution
2. Background
1. Population development
2. Routine data from GFPI
3. Study: WOMR-Management
1. Results
4. Conclusions
2
3. German Federal Pension Insurance
- the institution
Public service provider in the field of social security
More than 18,000,000 insured people
Tasks and benefits:
• Rehabilitation (medical and vocational)
• Pension payments (retirement pensions and pensions due to
reduced earning capacity)
Funded by contributions of employers and employees
Responsible for insured people all over Germany
3
5. Key figures
expenses for rehabilitation 2015
medical rehabilitation
vocational rehabilitation
benefits paid in place of salary
and social security fees
refunds and other
Total: 2,615 million euro *
1,740 million euro
279 million euro
602 million euro
Source: AL 8000* gross without refunds and allowances | expected annual earnings 2015 (02nd
of February 2016)
-6 million euro
5
6. Development of population 2013 - 2030
Source: Destatis Bevölkerungspyramide 13.koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung
6
7. Proportions of different age groups in the
population (in millions)
variant 1-W1
age group
total
AQ
<20 20-65 65+
2013 14.7 49.2 16.9 80.8 34.0
2030 13.8 43.6 21.8 79.2 50.0
Assumptions : birth rate approximately constant at 1.4 children per woman
Life expectancy at birth in 2060:
84.8 years for boys
88,8 years for girls
yearly migration balance (from 2021) + 100 000 persons
Source: Destatis Bevölkerungspyramide 13.koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung
7
8. 38.3
45.6
53.8
57 58
70.1
45.6
50.1
63.5 61.7 59.8
73.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
F EU-28 D DK GB S
2008 2013
Good news:
Employment rate 55 to 64 years in Germany
above the average of the EU
Source: Eurostat, 2015
proportion of older employees in percent
8
9. Average age of retirement due to old age
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
men women
averageage(years)
Source: ISRV Tab.: 102.00 Z RV
9
15. Approvals
Medical rehabilitation
- Approvals by age
Source: Infosys web
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
< 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 >65
age (years)
2009 2015
2009: n = 486,690, 2015: n = 475,003
15
16. Prediction of develoment of
medical rehabilitation
German Federal Pension Insurance (total)
Source: RSD, inkl. AHB, abgeschl. Reha, * hochgerechnet
2014: n = 1.008.050, 2018: n = 1.055.830
Rehabilitation
2007 – 2014*
Prediction
2015 - 2018
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
+ 4,7%
2014* - 2018
16
17. Needs for orientation
in medical rehabilitation
Source: Re-Analyse MBO-Studie (Streibelt 2009)
Patient survey before starting orthopedic rehabilitation:
What do you think will
help you most during
rehabilitation?
17
18. Needs for orientation
in medical rehabilitation
80%
10%
25%
23%
87%
11%
64%
41%
35%
69%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
gymnastics / sports
worktherapy /
ergotherapy
relaxation therapy
occupational
consultation
occupational
therapy
<=50 years n= 981
>50 years n= 630
Source: Re-Analyse MBO-Studie (Streibelt 2009) 18
19. Patient survey
Source: Re-Analyse MBO-Studie (Streibelt 2009)
Patient survey after finishing a somatic rehabilitation:
Did you receive
consultations and help in
the rehab-center to
facilitate the situation at
your workplace or to return
to work?
19
20. Item S50
Patient survey
Situation at workplace or return to work
59%
41%
69%
31%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
no
yes
>50 years n=11.088
<=50 years n=11.797
Source: Befragungszeitraum II/2007 + I/2008
20
21. 21
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Tage bis Rentenzugang
KumuliertesÜberleben
T-Wert bis 40
T-Wert größer 40 bis 60
T-Wert größer 60
Risk-Index for reduced earning capacity
pensions
Quelle: Bethge et al. 2011
Goal: Prediction of early retirement (ER)
Principle: Scale of 0 to 100 points, consisting of contributions of the last
3 years (amount and origin) and sociodemographic factors
Risk of ER:
30 times higher
Risk of ER:
6 times higher
Hit rate of ER:
74 %
Nearly 90% in ER
after 5 years!
VerbleibimErwerbsleben
22. 31%
0% 0%
8%
12%
0% 0%
19%
13%
32%
0%
5%
63%
0%
72%
0%
19%
13%
75%
1%
0%
12%
68%
11%
43%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
continous
Contributions to
pension insurance
temporary
contributions
early retirement retirement death
<= 29 years, n=4.705
30-39 years, n=13.537
40-49 years, n=37.737
50-59 years, n=44.095
> 60 years, n=7.349
Benefit of rehabilitation
Payment of contributions - two years follow up
Rehab caused by mental and behavioural disorders
Source: RSD 2005-2012
!
Compulsorily insured persons, who finished medical rehabilitation
in 2010
22
23. Conclusions
Ageing workforce leads to older clients in rehab-centers
Risk of reduced earning capacity must be main focus of Pension
Insurance and rehab-centers
Services for older patients must be focused strictly on return to work
Workplace orientated rehabilitation as a main focus for German
Pension Insurance
23
24. Impressum
23rd Rehabilitation International World Congress
25th of October – 27nd of October 2016, Edinburgh, Scotland
Consequences of demographic
change on rehabilitation in German
Pension Insurance
Uwe Egner
German Federal Pension Insurance
24
Hinweis der Redaktion
Wie das Beispiel der Orthopädie zeigt, ist das Durchschnittsalter der Rehabilitanden in den letzten Jahren schon leicht gestiegen. Zukünftig ist mit einem weiteren Anstieg zu rechnen.
Wie das Beispiel der Orthopädie zeigt, ist das Durchschnittsalter der Rehabilitanden in den letzten Jahren schon leicht gestiegen. Zukünftig ist mit einem weiteren Anstieg zu rechnen.
Der Risiko-Index Erwerbsminderungsrente (kurz: RI-EMR) nutzt die bei der DRV zur Verfügung stehenden Daten aus den Versichertenkonten – in erster Linie Höhe und Herkunft der Beitragszahlungen – um zu ermitteln, welches Risiko Versicherte haben, in den nächsten 5 Jahren in EM-Rente zu gehen.
Die relevanten Informationen werden anhand eines Algorithmus in eine Skala von 0 (kein EM-Risiko) bis 100 (extrem hohes EM-Risiko) Punkte transformiert.
Wie in der Grafik zu sehen, gehen z.B. aus der Gruppe der Versicherten mit mehr als 60 Punkten auf dem RI-EMR 90% in den nächsten 5 Jahren in EM-Rente oder anders: Es verbleiben nur 10% im aktiven Erwerbsleben! Damit ist deren EM-Risiko 30fach höher als das der Gruppe mit weniger als 40 Punkten.
Der RI-EMR hat eine Übereinstimmung (Trefferquote) mit dem EM-Rentenzugang in den nächsten 5 Jahren von 74%. Damit kann bei drei Viertel der Versicherten korrekt vorhergesagt werden, ob ein EM-Rentenzugang zu erwarten ist oder nicht.
Fazit: siehe blauer Balken!