The climatology researchers in Mendoza, Argentina gathered data on the Mendoza River watershed to develop a hydrological model of the region and simulate impacts of climate change on water resources. They used the SWAT model, which accurately simulated river flows. The model projected decreases in river flows of 3.5-11.8% under scenarios of increased temperature and decreased precipitation. This would severely impact the region's viticulture and agriculture industries, as grape and crop yields would decline with less water availability. To prevent worse outcomes, the researchers recommended transitioning to renewable energy and developing drought-resistant grape varieties through genome sequencing.

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Climate Change Effect on Viniculture Industry in Mendoza, Argentina
The U.S. is burning coals for electricity, gasoline and diesel for transportation, and natural gas
for heating. These activities release greenhouse gases which contain CO2, Nitrous oxide, sulfur
hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and methane. These molecules build up
in the atmosphere and reflect some infrared radiation back to Earth. This phenomenon is called
the greenhouse effect. (DanielTom, 2014) The reflected infrared radiation melts glaciers and
increases sea levels. Sea water level was increased 3.2 mm in 2013. Climate scientists predict
that the sea level will be 7 feet higher by 2100 (NOAA, 2014). Without taking actions on
Greenhouse gases, some coastal cities will be flooded. Fourteen of the world's seventeen
largest cities are located along coasts. (CreelLiz, 2003) Approximately, 40% of U.S.
population is living in coastal areas. (NOAA, 2014) Flood can kill or traumatize living organisms
by drowning. Also, it can increase water-borne (Typhoid fever, Cholera, Leptospirosis, Hepatitis
A) or vector-borne (Malaria, dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever, yellow fever, and West
Nile Fever) communicable disease infection by spreading escherichia bacteria in rodents’ urine
from the flooded area’s soil, contaminating drinking water facilities, and serving breeding sites
for mosquitos. (WHO) Major component of the greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide. About 84% of
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emission was carbon dioxide in 2011. (DanielTom, 2014) In 2013, U.S.
Industry emitted 6,673 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. It was 77% of the total carbon
emission. (EPA, 2015) When CO2 is released to atmosphere, some of them are absorbed into
the ocean dissolves aquatic organisms’ shells and skeletons which are composed of calcium
carbonate and other substances. When acidification level surpasses aquatic organisms’ range of
tolerance, aquatic organisms will die because their shells and skeletons cannot sustain their
internal organs anymore. (SharpJonathan, 2007) The reflected infrared radiation also can dry
up the watersheds and cause water and food scarcity.
Does the government need to risk economic harm to prevent the disaster which might or might
not occur in the future? Iran government did not risk economic harm to prevent its lake. Now,
Iran’s Lake Uremia has only 5% of its original water amount due to lack of the watershed
monitoring and regulation on agriculture. Local Iranian farmers around Lake Uremia don’t have
enough water to drink and grow crops. (ERDBRINKTHOMAS, 2014) Argentina government took
the risk and spent money on climatology researchers. But, does this investment prevent
Argentina government ration its water source? The climatologist cannot change the weather
and greenhouse gases, but they can make future weather scenarios and prepare the region at
least. Let’s find out what they did in order to make that possible.
To monitor the watershed and prevent the watershed area from drought, they used the
hydrological models which reproduce physical processes of watersheds on hydrological
outputs. The models estimated the impacts of natural and anthropogenic processes on water
resources. Particularly, the hydrological model ‘Soil & Water Assessment Tool’ (SWAT) had a
crucial role of assessing the impact of natural and human changes on water resources.
However, it was still difficult to make detailed simulation model with all the great tools and
models because the watershed they had to monitor and simulate was the Mendoza river
catchment which is located in the Central Andes region, in western Argentina. This region was
lack of data because it is the longest continental mountain range in the world. It is 7,000 km

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(4,300 mi) long and approximately 200 km (120 mi) to 700 km (430 mi) wide. (Onno
OnckenGuillermo, 2006) Anyway, they didn’t give up and gathered data of the Mendoza river
catchment. It is made up of 85% seasonal snowmelt of the river’s flow (41.68 m3/s) and the
15% glaciers and rain (7.36 m3/s). It also contains the largest irrigated area and forms the North
Oasis which is the important area for river discharge. 3.4% of Mendoza province is irrigated,
and it is 25% of the total irrigated area in Argentina. Apples, pears, tomatoes, onions, plums,
olives, cherries, peaches, grasps, and quinces were being produced from this irrigated area. This
agriculture and viticulture takes 84% of Mendoza province’s water usage. Drinking water takes
15% and industries take only 1%. However, water demand for drinking and industries is
increasing due to its 1% annual population growth. However, it seemed impossible to decrease
water amount for agriculture and viticulture because this region economy was heavily
depended on viticulture. 75% of Argentina’s national wine which is approximately 1.5 billion
liters was being produced in this site. (Julia SchwankRocío, 2014) The arid climate and low
precipitation rate required prudent managing of scarce water resources and 1,738,929
Mendoza citizens’ future residency and this region’s tourism (approximately 700,000) were
depend on this. (RobinsonJancis, 1994) The climatology researchers finished gathering basic
data and then they hunt for numeric data and models from satellites. The researchers obtained
the Digital Elevation Model from the shuttle Radar Topography mission of NASA, the land cover
data from the resolution global dataset GlobCover, soil classes fromthe global database of the
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, climatic data from Sub-Secretary for
National Water Resources, National Meteorological data was received from the river network
of the National Geographic institute and the global database Hydro SHEDS. (Julia
SchwankRocío, 2014) After gathering all the numeric data from satellites, they could compare
the data and corrected some inconsistencies based on the creation of reference series and
linear regressions between the candidate series and the reference series. They adjusted glacier
data and simulated the snow and glacier processes in the mountainous catchment and applied
climatic data on the mountainous catchment and divided snows and glaciers on sub-basins by
elevation levels to see the spatial variations in snow accumulation. This mixture of data created
a model that simulated the past 8 years on sub-basins in the headwaters and stream gauges of
the rivers Cuevas, Mendoza and Tupungato. Finally, the researchers divided this model by three
sub-periods: the warm-up period (2002), the calibration period (2003-2005), and the validation
period. (2006-2009)
Figure 1- Mendoza downstream model performance on calibration and validation periods

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This shows measured and simulated seasonal behavior of the Mendoza River. It
represents the accuracy of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The measured data line
and simulated data line almost coincide with each other. The researchers agreed that SWAT is
pretty accurate and reliable. Therefore, they established three decreasing precipitation and
increasing temperature scenarios and 15 situations based on the levels of precipitation and
temperature intensity with SWAT. The first scenario has 10% precipitation decreasing and 1.8 C
temperature increasing. The second scenario has 20% precipitation decreasing and 2.8 C
temperature increasing, and the third scenario has 30% precipitation decreasing and 4 C
temperature increasing. (Julia SchwankRocío, 2014)
Figure 2- Three decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature scenarios based on the levels of intensity
Situation 1 through 3, the magnitude of decreased river flows coincides with the amount of
decreased precipitation. Annual river flow decreases about 3.5%, 6.6%, and 9.7% in S1, S2, and
S3. However, the timing of river flow stays the same. So, the river will have its annual max
volume between spring and summer. (Julia SchwankRocío, 2014)

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Figure 3- Climate changescenario simulations(Each cell matcheswith Figure2 cells exceptS15)
Snow melting starts to change the timing of river flows from situation 4. Without decreased
precipitation, approximately 1.5% of annual river flow will be decreased because of
evapotranspiration. Some of the river flows will be vapors. With the same reason, S5, S6, and S7
lose 4.5%, 7.5% and 10% of river flows annually. (Julia SchwankRocío, 2014) When the
temperature raises 2.8 C, the glacier on Aconcagua Mountain (located nearby in Mendoza
province) melts so dramatically that river flows increase 2.1% until all the glaciers are melted
out, but still river flows decrease as precipitation decreases. S10 and S11 lose 3.7% and 6.1% of
river flows due to less precipitation even though the glacier melting adds water to river flows.
Finally, when all the glaciers have melted out and temperature increases 4 C due to the climate
change, the Mendoza River loses 11.8% of its volume and it will reach its annual max volume 50
days earlier than usual. (Julia SchwankRocío, 2014) This situation will affect Mendoza province’s
viticulture and agriculture severely. Grape and crop outcomes will be decreased because of less
water availability. Hot temperature and shifted harvesting time will increase sugar and alcohol
concentrations and decrease acidities and modification of varietal aroma compounds by
inhibiting vine metabolism and reducing metabolite accumulations. Colors and Aroma of wine
will be changed. (OrduñaRamón, 2010) Then, Argentina government needs to ration the
specific drinking water amount per person like India to maintain its main economic activity,
viticulture.
They looked up the fifteen situations and if Mendoza Province wants to lower the possibility of
disaster simulations like S14 and S15, there are two possible solutions. First one is reducing the
region’s greenhouse gases. The researchers found that this province has coal power plants.
Since this province does not have many heavy manufacturing factories. It is possible to change

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power plants that use renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydro power plants. Even
though its capital cost is expensive, environmental management costs will be low, so Mendoza
province can be economically beneficial from converting power plants if Mendoza province
charges fair amount of electricity fees to its residences. Second solution is investing on
genotype sequencing. If Mendoza province find out the genomic nature of traits that is
important in grape breeding by distinguishing the small differences in the genomes of grapes,
this region might be able to produce hot temperature and drought resilient grape vines. (A
Gannet Company, 2013)
It is difficult to completely resolve wicked problems, but when we work hard on them like
climatology researchers, we can resolve them together without facing severe disasters.
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