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Ian Miles Manchester Institute of Innovation Research [email_address] 5 December 2008 Nanotechnology Foresight in the UK   NANOTECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL FORUM  4-5 December 2008
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
UK Foresight Programme  I ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Focusing on Nano … . Special Report at outset of 2 nd  cycle: Opportunities for Industry in the Application of Nanotechnology
A Transformed Website The Second Cycle 2000-2002      TF          CP CP    sectoral   thematic,  Many   Tas k Forces
UK Foresight Programme  II ,[object Object],Construction:  “Biomimetics… will provide new materials, including some with biological self-repairing properties. Continuing miniaturisation of computing, communications and artificial intelligence devices, in particular enabled through nanotechnology, will provide ‘intelligent’ materials and ‘smart’ coatings.  Nanotechnology will also enable sensors to be ‘embedded’ into buildings to remotely monitor building performance.” Energy and Natural Resources:  Consultation survey  - “the majority … put  forward areas in which the UK was well  Advanced…  biosciences; pharmaceuticals…. Nanotechnology…” Finance:   one mini-scenario involved an entrepreneur with nanoelectronic product 2000-2
UK Foresight Programme  II ,[object Object],Health:  “high throughput screening for drug discovery …. Nano-bioreactors have been developed for diagnostics allowing thousands of assay wells to be incorporated into centimetre scale platforms... We recommend the establishment of a Health Engineering Consortium (the NHS, Research Councils, industry and other relevant interests ….)…given the remit of developing… a national strategy for health engineering…, including the identification of new interdisciplinary opportunities for scientists, engineers and doctors.” Crime:  Detection and intelligence New crimes (drug production) Defence/Aerospace:   one of 6 key technology areas Much mention in passing; but also more detailed examination 2000-2
UK Foresight Programme  II ,[object Object],“ Nanotechnology has been described as the driver of the next industrial revolution….”  (one page only discussion, on last page of 27pp text) (brief discussion of strengths) “ Recommendations A programme to inform and enthuse industry about the opportunities, which will arise from nanotechnology, should be started. The government should identify a nanotechnology strategy that matches the UK’s scientific and technological strength, and provide opportunities for the chemical industry.” 2000-2
UK Foresight Programme  II ,[object Object],ITEC Nanoscience and nanotechnology forms one of three Basic Technologies “ Nanoscience and nanotechnology are important both in the continuing miniaturisation of semiconductor devices, and for the more speculative commercial applications of the technologies. Much attention, but the detailed Task Force analysis draws heavily on SIA roadmap.  Own work – mainly workshop and literature-based. 2000-2
2nd Cycle: Materials Panel ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Specific work on packaging, etc. 2000-2
2nd Cycle: Materials Panel  Nano Taskforce ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Again, emphasis on young people’s attitudes 2000-2
Third Cycle of UK Foresight Projects Much earlier work still available here http://www.foresight.gov.uk 2002 –  onwards
UK Foresight Programme  III ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Nanotechnology is almost always mentioned, but often just in passing – or as an option but not necessity Nanotechnology “normalised”?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],UK Foresight Programme  III Nanotechnology “normalised” – or enormous?
Beyond the Foresight Programme ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Success Scenario Workshop - 2001, Nanotechnology (for DGRC) Actions and responsible parties Aspirational SUCCESS SCENARIO workshop Indicators of realisation and progress Credible, optimistic Expert consensus if possible Informed by benchmarking and other inputs “ Stretch target”; Sharing visions, improving understanding; Better indicators of progress; Action points Specification of  feasible + desirable  future Background inputs (inc framework scenarios, SWOT, etc)
Focus on 6 Application Areas for Nanotechnology Informatics Drug Delivery Systems Tissue Engineering, medical implants & devices Novel Materials Sensors and actuators Instrumentation, tooling and metrology N
Basic Roadmaps –  e.g.  Informatics For each area, UK  bench-marked against  other  countries, and a basic vision of future produced
Mixture of Plenaries and 6 working groups ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mixture of Plenaries and 6 working groups ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],All of these points for discussion were “seeded” with suggested classifications, lists of examples,  etc.  Information collected via flip charts, powerpoints, even cameras - but no use of groupware (this was 2001!)
Making it happen ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some Summary Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact - a new policy
Impact muted? In our view, the Taylor Report provided a comprehensive, ambitious, affordable and achievable strategy for the development of UK nanotechnology capability: it provided a … blueprint which the DTI could have taken forward and implemented in full. …We question the need for the industrial survey commissioned by the DTI three months after the Taylor Report had been published: it did not add significantly to the body of knowledge … necessary to inform the framework of future funding. The DTI could have responded to the Taylor Report without this unnecessary delay. … In our view, whilst the Taylor Report has not been completely rejected, there is no doubt that its central thrust has been lost: it is not being implemented in the manner recommended. Instead of the immediate focus being on the establishment of at least two nanofabrication facilities, the available money is being disseminated widely between supporting applied research and the further development of a number of existing small micro and nanotechnology facilities. Select Committee on Science and Technology Fifth Report 2004 DTI strategy was to form  a  Micro  and  Nano  Technology Network, despite explicit proposal to develop UK strategy & facilities for  nanotechnology
Nano Now ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NIA Model Complexity NIA Forecast of Emerging Nanotechnologies Paul Reip & Steffi Friedrichs June 2007
NIA Model Complexity Autonomous Motive Sensing Physical Chemical
NIA Model “futurised”
NIA Model Populated
Royal Society report Reviewed Science and applications:  Nanomaterials: Nanometrology; Electronics, optoelectronics, and ICT; Bio-nanotechnology and nanomedicine;  Nanomanufacturing and industrial application of nanotechnologies  incl. Fabrication techniques; Bottom-up manufacturing; Top-down manufacturing; Precision Engineering; The chemicals industry; The ICT industry; Resource management and environmental issues Health and Safety, Social and Ethical Issues And stressed  Public Consultation and Dialogue  and  Regulatory Responses Extensive government response
Final Thoughts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
End of Presentation thanks to our hosts!

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Nanotechnology Foresight in the UK

  • 1. Ian Miles Manchester Institute of Innovation Research [email_address] 5 December 2008 Nanotechnology Foresight in the UK NANOTECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL FORUM 4-5 December 2008
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  • 4. Focusing on Nano … . Special Report at outset of 2 nd cycle: Opportunities for Industry in the Application of Nanotechnology
  • 5. A Transformed Website The Second Cycle 2000-2002      TF          CP CP  sectoral  thematic, Many Tas k Forces
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  • 12. Third Cycle of UK Foresight Projects Much earlier work still available here http://www.foresight.gov.uk 2002 – onwards
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  • 16. Success Scenario Workshop - 2001, Nanotechnology (for DGRC) Actions and responsible parties Aspirational SUCCESS SCENARIO workshop Indicators of realisation and progress Credible, optimistic Expert consensus if possible Informed by benchmarking and other inputs “ Stretch target”; Sharing visions, improving understanding; Better indicators of progress; Action points Specification of feasible + desirable future Background inputs (inc framework scenarios, SWOT, etc)
  • 17. Focus on 6 Application Areas for Nanotechnology Informatics Drug Delivery Systems Tissue Engineering, medical implants & devices Novel Materials Sensors and actuators Instrumentation, tooling and metrology N
  • 18. Basic Roadmaps – e.g. Informatics For each area, UK bench-marked against other countries, and a basic vision of future produced
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  • 24. Impact - a new policy
  • 25. Impact muted? In our view, the Taylor Report provided a comprehensive, ambitious, affordable and achievable strategy for the development of UK nanotechnology capability: it provided a … blueprint which the DTI could have taken forward and implemented in full. …We question the need for the industrial survey commissioned by the DTI three months after the Taylor Report had been published: it did not add significantly to the body of knowledge … necessary to inform the framework of future funding. The DTI could have responded to the Taylor Report without this unnecessary delay. … In our view, whilst the Taylor Report has not been completely rejected, there is no doubt that its central thrust has been lost: it is not being implemented in the manner recommended. Instead of the immediate focus being on the establishment of at least two nanofabrication facilities, the available money is being disseminated widely between supporting applied research and the further development of a number of existing small micro and nanotechnology facilities. Select Committee on Science and Technology Fifth Report 2004 DTI strategy was to form a Micro and Nano Technology Network, despite explicit proposal to develop UK strategy & facilities for nanotechnology
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  • 27. NIA Model Complexity NIA Forecast of Emerging Nanotechnologies Paul Reip & Steffi Friedrichs June 2007
  • 28. NIA Model Complexity Autonomous Motive Sensing Physical Chemical
  • 31. Royal Society report Reviewed Science and applications: Nanomaterials: Nanometrology; Electronics, optoelectronics, and ICT; Bio-nanotechnology and nanomedicine; Nanomanufacturing and industrial application of nanotechnologies incl. Fabrication techniques; Bottom-up manufacturing; Top-down manufacturing; Precision Engineering; The chemicals industry; The ICT industry; Resource management and environmental issues Health and Safety, Social and Ethical Issues And stressed Public Consultation and Dialogue and Regulatory Responses Extensive government response
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  • 33. End of Presentation thanks to our hosts!