8. 3. Integrate agro-hydrological modeling and remote sensing at irrigation scheme level a. Land cover and crop dynamics Crop dynamics and the impact on hydrology are far more significant than land use change Irrigated area of the third main canal (ha): Design: 68, 000 Gov. statistics: 29,000 ZIS: 16,000 Remote sensing: 21,000 RS provides objective and accurate information on area and distribution “ ” “ ” NDVI (Cai and Cui, 2009b) Single crop (cotton, wheat) Water Settlement Forest Rice – wheat Rice – rapeseed Double crop Legend
9. 3. Integrate agro-hydrological modeling and remote sensing at irrigation scheme level b. ET estimate (Cai and Cui, 2009a) SSEB: Land use map ET a map from RS IU boundary ET values of each land use in each simulation unit Model calibration
10. 3. Integrate agro-hydrological modeling and remote sensing at irrigation scheme level c. Crop growth conditions and yields (1) In ZIS, Doorenbos – Kasam model: (2) In Central Asia, biophysical modeling: (Cai et al., 2008; Cai et al., 2009) Cotton yield Yield cotton = 5.156*IRS NDVI - 0.964 R 2 = 0.753 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 IRS-NDVI (Sept 4, 2007) 2007 Cotton biomass WBM cotton = 71.18*(IRS TBVI32) 3.96 R 2 = 0.834 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 IRS TBVI32 2006 2007 Cotton Leaf Area Index LAI cotton = 10.37*(IRS TBVI31) 1.915 R 2 = 0.725 0 1 2 3 4 5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 IRS TBVI31 2006 2007
11. 3. Integrate agro-hydrological modeling and remote sensing at irrigation scheme level d. Small storages spatial hydrological modeling Irrigation canal Average connection : 4.75 Number: 2795 Capacity (million m 3 ): 4.47 (Cai et al., 2007; Roost et al., 2008a) Tuanlin Pond ID return ratio Pond efficiency % % 1 26.2 54.4 2 16.7 50.5 3 13.0 32.0 Average 18.6 45.6
SEBAL complicated Clarification and validation impossible without remote sensing.
Conditions monitoring and yield forecast Spatial details
Only about two key messages: in a low inflow situation, storage provides supply by effective reuses
Not only about crops but also livestock, fisheries, agroforestry. And reduce vulnerability to risks. Surface water includes river, reservior, and farm ponds
Model: processes and senario analysis Remote sensing: calibration and validation, spatial extroplation