Presented at the 3rd ICOS Science Conference in Prague, Czech Republic, 11-13 Sep 2018.

1. C 3 S
C o p e r n i c u s
C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
CopernicusEU
CopernicusEU
CopernicusECMWF
www.copernicus.eu
climate.copernicus.eu
atmosphere.copernicus.eu
Copernicus EU
CopernicusECMWF
C A M S
C o p e r n i c u s
A t m o s p h e r e M o n i t o r i n g
S e r v i c e
Towards an anthropogenic CO2 emissions
monitoring system

2. C O P E R N I C U S A N D E C M W F
Sentinels
User-driven with free and unrestricted data access
Atmosphere
Climate
Land
Marine
Emergency
Security
Observations
feeding into
value-added
Services
Service is implemented by ECMWF
ECMWF is contributing to the Service

3. Climate
Change
C3S: ACCESS TO PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE INFORMATION
Earthsystemmodels
Observations and climate reanalyses
Seasonal forecast data and products
http://climate.copernicus.eu
Climate model simulations
Sectoral climate impact indicators

4. Atmosphere
Monitoring
CAMS: ACCESS TO PAST AND PRESENT COMPORISTION INFORMATION
Solar radiation
and UV index
Ozone layer
Bottom-up
emissions and
surface fluxes of
greenhouse gases
Global analyses, forecasts and
reanalyses (2003-...)
NO2
European Air
Quality and
products in
support of
policy users
http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu
Radiative forcings

5. Atmosphere
Monitoring
W H Y A R E S E RV I C E S N E E D E D O N TO P O F D ATA?
ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY
METOP-A/IASI
GOSAT/TANSO
CH4

6. Atmosphere
Monitoring
CAMS SERVICE CHAIN
Space Agencies
In-situ observations
15
C A M S O P E R AT I O N A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)
Regional multi-model
ensemble (7 soon 9
models)
Users:
Env. Agencies
Academia
SMEs
Citizens
...
~75 different data streams
(about 15 for atmospheric
composition variables)
EEA, GAW, EMEP,
IAGOS, NDACC, ICOS,
ACTRIS, EAN...
Global System
Regional System

7. Atmosphere
Monitoring
I F S : A V E RY G O O D N W P A N D D A S Y S T E M
IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) is the tool behind ECMWF’s successful NWP
As part of ECMWF’s strategy, IFS is increasingly becoming an
Earth-System Model, i.e. even more Integrated: surface,
cryosphere… and composition

8. Atmosphere
Monitoring
C A N I T R U S T C A M S P R O D U C T S ? A N E X A M P L E .
CAMS AOD forecasts initialized on 13 October 2017. Storm Ophelia
transported a mixture of smoke, dust and sea salt aerosol across
Europe leading to the sun appearing red and to yellow skies.

9. Atmosphere
Monitoring
H U R R I C A N E O P H E L I A A N D C A M S A E R O S O L F O R E C A S T S
IASI observations
Dust
NH3
CAMS AOD contributions
Dust
Biomass burning
15 October - pm 16 October - am 16 October - pm 17 October - am
• Ophelia winds advected Saharan dust closely followed by smoke from fires in
Portugal and NW Spain across northern Europe over several days from 16 October.
• Near-real time monitoring of the event by CAMS showed excellent agreement with
NRT IASI observations of dust and ammonia.
Figure c/o L. Clarisse (ULB) from Clerbaux et al.

10. Climate
Change
C3S: Reanalysis based Essential Climate Variables (30km global ERA5)
Builds upon IFS modelling and Data Assimilation
Reflects variations in:
• ingested observing system
• flow-dependent sensitivity
Spread in Surface Pressure (hPa)
January 1979
July 2014
Uncertainty estimate
Hourly data and increased number of parameters
Credit: H. Hersbach, ECMWF
Courtesy: Philip Brohan

11. Climate
Change
C 3 S : E O b a s e d E s s e n t i a l C l i m a t e V a r i a b l e s
Science Operations
• Large uptake by Copernicus of Science
in Europe (e.g. ESA Climate Change
Initiative, EUMETSAT SAFs, etc.)
• Copernicus is a resource to WMO State
of Climate, GCOS climate indicators,
contributes to CEOS-CGMS Climate data
records inventory

12. Climate
Change
Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014.
Climate indicators Trend
Surface temperature
Greenhouse gases
Rain
Sea Ice
Glaciers
Sea Level
Soil Moisture
C 3 S : O p e r a t i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n o f c l i m a t e i n d i c a t o r s ( w i t h C A M S
a n d C M E M S )
https://climate.copernicus.eu/CopernicusESC

13. Climate
Change
Copernicu
s
W h a t ’ s n e x t :
B r o a d i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g e n d a
• “Transforming our world: the 2030
Agenda for Sustainable Development” -
17 Sustainable Development Goals
with 169 associated targets
• Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction 2015–2030 with seven
global targets
• Paris Agreement adopted by
conference of parties to United
Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (COP-21)
• The New Urban Agenda adopted at
Habitat III
Credit: WMO

14. 30 November 2017
Copernicus
30 November 2017
Establishment of User Needs / Requirements for Copernicus
evolution
• The EC conducted in 2016-17 a wide initiative to identify long term, “user-driven”
requirements for evolution of Copernicus services and space segment => user
consultations, workshops, etc.
• Copernicus will continue to be a public service, driven by the needs of policy and public
administrations, and fostering economic development in Europe
• Stability of the programme and long term commitment
– (Enhanced) continuity of current data and services;
– Continuity of full, open and free data policy
• Emerging needs
– Climate change and sustainable development;
– Monitoring CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions;
– Land use and forestry;
– Changes in the Arctic;
– Security and Defence: Improving the EU's capacity (border control, maritime
surveillance);

15. 30 November 2017
Copernicus
30 November 2017
Space Segment, observation requirements preliminary conclusions
• The (enhanced) continuity of existing observation capacity is the overarching priority;
• Conclusions on major gaps :
– CO2 measurements to estimate anthropogenic emissions (highest priority)
– High-Resolution Thermal observations
– SAR L-band observations
– Monitoring of sea ice and ice sheets in the polar region (various measurements
and instruments)
– Hyper-spectral measurements
• Very ambitious plans being put forward by the EC/ESA for the future generation of
Copernicus satellites (Sentinels 1 to 6 deployment completion, Next Gen S1 to S6, and
further missions)

16. C O 2 A N T H R O P O G E N I C E M I S S I O N M O N I TO R I N G S Y S T E M
Approach based on
CAMS and C3S, with 3
complementary
components:
• ECMWF/IFS @5-
10km, 100+
satellite data
streams
• Regional zooms
@1-2km
• Hot spots

17. 30 November 2017
Copernicus
I C O S & C o p e r n i c u s f u t u r e C O 2 s e r v i c e
A future Copernicus CO2 Monitoring & Verification
Support (MVS) capacity critically depends on
sustained access to high-quality in-situ observations
of CO2 concentrations and fluxes.
In situ observations are required for calibration and
validation of the space component, for assimilation
in models at the core of the system, and for
evaluating the output generated by the system for
its end users.
The ICOS Research Infrastructure, supported by many European countries, can
therefore play a critical role in a future CO2 MVS capacity.

18. TOWARDS AN OPERATIONAL CO2 EMISSION MONITORING SERVICE
20252018 20202019 2021 2022 2023 2024
Prototype
system(s) for
hot spot
emissions and
country-region
scale
emissions
Pre-operational
system
OCO-2/-3
GOSAT/-2
MicroCarb
Sentinel
TANSAT/-2
CHE
VERIFY
SPACE-5-EO-2019
Definition of
system
components,
spatial
temporal
scales
Early
Prototype,
country /
region
emissions
In-situ network
design
Copernicus
CO2 service
Operational
system
FY-3D
Chinese operational
missions
Space component
Modelling/information system component
GF-5
System performance
analysis

19. CO2 HUMAN EMISSIONS
CHE Structure and Work Package Breakdown
CO2 Emissions: from a system input to a
system output...
WP1 Coordinating Efforts on reconciling top-down
and bottom-up estimates
WP2 Coordinating efforts on library of simulations
for emissions and atmospheric transport
WP3 Coordinating efforts on uncertainty trade-off for
fossil fuel emissions
WP4 Coordinating Efforts on attributing CO2
emissions from in-situ measurements
WP5 Towards a prototype of a European
anthropogenic emission monitoring system
WP6 International Stakeholder Coordination and
liaison
WP7 Project Management, Dissemination and
Communication
Co-ordinator: G. Balsamo (ECMWF)

20. CO2 HUMAN EMISSIONS
CHE Integration & capacity building
TASK FORCES
VERIFY
project

21. CO2 HUMAN EMISSIONS
C 3 S
climate.copernicus.eu
Climate Change
CopernicusEU
CopernicusEU
CopernicusECMWF
www.copernicus.eu
climate.copernicus.eu
atmosphere.copernicus.eu
Copernicus EU
CopernicusECMWF
C A M S
a t m o s p h e r e . c o p e r n i c u s . e u
Thank You!