About 30 million people work in the agricultural sector in Tanzania, and as irrigation schemes are fairly underdeveloped, most of them are highly vulnerable to weather-related yield losses. This vulnerability might accelerate under climate change conditions, and the financial uncertainty of the farmers inhibits implementation of improved and resilient farming systems, endangering food security. Our methodology, tested at the plot, county and national scale, has the potential to hugely support agricultural development and can be a means to adapt to climate variability and change.

1. Links between science and insurance –
WP 2.2.2. Micro-Insurance Model East Africa
May 7th, 2019
PIK, TU Delft, GAF AG

2. Stabilizing
farmers’
incomes to
cope with
climate perils

3. 3
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
• Stabilizing farmers’ incomes to cope with climate perils
• Most vulnerable people are smallholder farmers in Sub Saharan Africa
• Insurances to enhance food security and indemnify livelihoods
Examples
• Promising solutions in Tanzania and neighboring countries
Challenges
• Insurance company must cope systematic risk
• Subsidies to make insurances affordable
• Coverage of the weather-related risks
• Management-related risks are uncovered
Crop insurance solutions
WP 2.2.2. Micro-Insurance Model East Africa

4. 4
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
1. Progress of work package
2. Broad progress on the work package
3. Data creation and management
4. Interactions/ meetings with end-users and stakeholders
5. Communications conducted and planned
Overview
Agricultural insurance demonstrator

5. 5
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
1. Progress of work package
2. Broad progress on the work package
3. Data creation and management
4. Interactions/ meetings with end-users and stakeholders
5. Communications conducted and planned
Overview
Agricultural insurance demonstrator

6. 6
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
Deliverables & Milestones Overview
Deliverables D2.2.2.1 Report on the viability of the methodology for the Tanzanian cropping
conditions (M 12)
D2.2.2.2 Insurance design workshop (WS) (M 18)
D2.2.2.3 Development of a micro crop insurance scheme designed for the farming conditions
in Tanzania (M 24)
D2.2.2.4 Integrated yield model for yield loss validation and yield risk map available in the
eMarket (M 30)
Milestones M2 2.2.1 Model readily implemented including new data sets (M 18)
M2 2.2.2 Mapping of climate risk for agriculture ready (M 24)
M2 2.2.3 Micro-insurance scheme ready (M 30)
All deliverables and milestones are fulfilled in time and we intend to continue in this way
WP 2.2.2. Micro-Insurance Model East Africa

7. 7
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
1. Progress of work package
2. Broad progress on the work package
3. Data creation and management
4. Interactions/ meetings with end-users and stakeholders
5. Communications conducted and planned
Overview
Agricultural insurance demonstrator

8. 8
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
Towards high resolution rainfall data for Tanzania, Stage-1:
Satellite-based cloud-top temperature time series for rainfall regime classification
Motivation
• Evaluation of 6 rainfall products shows poor performance at daily scale over Tanzania.
• Their detection of extreme weather conditions is problematic.
• Rain gauge data calibrated parameters/model cannot be translated to an arbitrary location over
gauge-scarce regions.
Solution
• Cluster the stations into different rainfall regimes by a rainfall proxy with global coverage.
• Classify the grid cells to the resulted rainfall regimes by the rainfall proxy.
• Next step: calibrate rainfall model based on CTT-rainfall relations, and extend the calibrated
parameters to ungauged locations.
• The clustering and classification are conducted based on dynamic time warping method of time
series dissimilarity measure.
S. Lu et al.

9. 9
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
Clusters on 10-daily CTT TS Clusters on 10-daily Precipitation TS
The two clustering results match 100%!
CTT: cloud-top temperature
PP: precipitation
TS: time series
Towards high resolution rainfall data for Tanzania, Stage-1:
Satellite-based cloud-top temperature time series for rainfall regime classification
Dynamic Time Warping
x ,y: both PP time series
or both CTT time series
S. Lu et al.

10. 10
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
1. Progress of work package
2. Broad progress on the work package
3. Data creation and management
4. Interactions/ meetings with end-users and stakeholders
5. Communications conducted and planned
Overview
Agricultural insurance demonstrator

11. 11
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
New data sources for Tanzania
Agricultural insurance demonstrator
Station data of agricultural stations in Tanzania
- Provided by: Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI)
- crops: maize, millet, sorghum, rice, sunflower
- Coverage of different agro-ecological zones
- Crop production under optimal conditions and farmer’s conditions
- Variables: yield, harvested area, sowing and harvesting date, applied
management practices
Official statistics on crop production in Tanzania
- Provided by: Ministry of Agriculture (MoA)
- Food crops
- On regional level
- Variables: yield, harvested area

12. 12
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
1. Progress of work package
2. Broad progress on the work package
3. Data creation and management
4. Interactions/ meetings with end-users and stakeholders
5. Communications conducted and planned
Overview
Agricultural insurance demonstrator

13. 13
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
Arbitrator/ Intermediary
Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise Ltd.
• Insures > 1 million farmers
• Operate in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda
• Connect with: aggregators, insures, re-insurers, farmers
• Current means of assessment: Precipitation Index
Re-insurance
Munich Re
• Business partner
• Interested in re-insurance in East Africa
• Insurance systems’ design
• Advise and feedback to local insurance providers and banks
Key activities & highlights
Micro-Insurance Business Model Development

14. 14
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
Stakeholder engagement
Agricultural insurance demonstrator
Division of Food Security of Ministry of
Agriculture (MoA)
 Exchange on data
Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute
(TARI)
 Exchange on data
CARE International Tanzania
 Exchange on experiences with crop
insurances in 4 pilot studies
AfriGuard – Insurance Solutions
 Exchange on insurance design of 3 local crop insurances
Bilateral meetings from 29 April to 3 May 2019 in
Tanzania (Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, Hodomo)

15. 15
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
1. Progress of work package
2. Broad progress on the work package
3. Data creation and management
4. Interactions/ meetings with end-users and stakeholders
5. Communications conducted and planned
Overview
Agricultural insurance demonstrator

16. 16
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance .oasishub.co
Stakeholder engagement and
dissemination
Communication
Shamba Shape Up
• Special episode on insurances and
climate change on television
agricultural extension episode for
smallholder farmers
• Broadcasted in Kenya, Tanzania and
Uganda
• 8 million weekly viewers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0msZX4g4ZI