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Understanding and Communicating Pressures on Future Food Security through
Development of Quantified Scenarios – West Africa Case Study
Graham Burr CPSI Cohort 2 Dissertation 2103 Update: June 2014
Mopti, Mali, 2007

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The issue
Multiple, competing pressures on food security for the world’s poor…
How to create food security without crashing the environment
Global
resource
shortages
Increased
domestic
calorie
demand
More Land conversion
Intensification (More inputs:
water, fertilizer, Infrastructure,)
Food security
=
increased local
calorie output
Increased
pressure on land
Reduced
eco-system
services
Feedback: Risks of Overgrazing and
land degradation and water shortage“Land Grabs”
(exports/biofuels)
Imports less
affordable
& reliable
Climate Change
(yield impacts)
Population
Growth and
economic
development
Environmental
degradation

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Case Study approach
Why West Africa….Big, poor, growing, with huge food security challenge
Key Facts
300 million people ( 60% EU27)
605 million hectares (140% EU27)
Major rivers: Niger, Volga, Senegal
Three reasons to choose West Africa:
1. One of the poorest regions, with big food
security issues
2. International interest: Role in key export
commodities, de-forestation and land grabs
3. Region is largely self-contained
geographically and economically – and big!

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West Africa
Young Region with some of the world’s highest population growth forecast
Today’s Population
2010
300304
2030
543
496
2050
841
743
population
total calories
Sierra Leone: 2011
Will More than Double by 2050
2050
Index on 2010
Population: 2.4
Calories: 2.8
Calories/
head/day: 1.1
Sources: FAO databases Threefold increase in calorie consumption

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West Africa
Has the Full Range of Land Types – and lots of it still in its “natural state”
Examples of different land types:
 Grassland and woodland)
 Sparsely vegetated and barren
 Tropical Forests

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West Africa
Has the Full Range of Land Types – and lots of it still in its “natural state”
Examples of different land types:
 Grassland and woodland)
 Sparsely vegetated and barren
 Tropical Forests

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West Africa
Has the Full Range of Land Types – and lots of it still in its “natural state”
Examples of different land types:
 Grassland and woodland)
 Sparsely vegetated and barren
 Tropical Forests

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West Africa
Has the Full Range of Land Types – but only about 15% is high yield land
Tropical Forests Grassland and woodland Sparsely vegetated & barren
% of total 15% 44% 42% = 100%
Of which:
“prime & good“ 25% 25% n.a.
(High Yield)
% of total “prime & good“ 4% - = 15%
Why Important? Huge impact on potential calorie output

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Scenario development
Dramatic differences in 2050 calorie output with different farming regimes
2010yields
2050trend
yields
2050Mixed
inputyields
3.9 4.9 12.4
1.9 2.4 1.9
3.9 4.9 12.4
1.9 2.4 1.9
3.4 4.2 6.3130 162 162
86 108
346
382
477
477255
318
1018
852 Bn Cal. p.a. 1066 Bn Cal. p.a. 2090 Bn Cal. p.a.
Forest areaM andVM Forest area prime & good
Grass andwoodlandM and VM Grass andwoodlandprime & good
PotentialCalorie
Output2010 Yields
PotentialCalorie
Output2050 Trend
Yields
PotentialCalorie
Output2050 Mix Input
Yields
“Prime and
good” land
Approx. Four
times today’s
yield
Intensive farming on “Prime and Good” Land drives
80% of potential increase in calorie output

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West Africa
Two development paths considered to meet 2050 calorie needs
Scenario 1:
Low development
(Business as usual)
Scenario 2
High development
(Major investment in
agriculture)
• Rain fed cultivation,
• Historical rates of yield
improvement continue
• High input farming
(irrigation, increased
fertilisers and crop
selection)
• Factor of 4 Yield
increase on suitable
land

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Scenario development
Land use Evolution from Natural state to today – strong starting point
84% of land still in its “natural” state

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Land use evolution
Scenario 1: Low development – “Business as usual”
Only 23% of potentially cultivatable land remains by 2050

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Land use evolution
Scenario 2: High development – “high investment” scenario
51% of potentially cultivatable land remains by 2050 with significant exports crops

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Scenario comparison
Key Metrics: Land conversion, Food security, Ecosystem services, Water usage
0 20 40 60 80
2050
scenario 1
scenario 2
19
43
2030
48
63
2010
65
65
Neither scenario is both resilient and feasible
0
10
20
30
40
2010
3 3
2030
6
18
2050
Scenario
1
Scenario2
9
35
Withdrawalsasa%ofIRWS
0
50
100
150
200
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500
0
72
0
Billion KCal / year
EcosystemServiceValue($B)
94
122
38
92
180
0 50 100 150 200
Scenario 1 -
total
20502030 176
Scenario 2 -
total
79
Scenario 1 -
Domestic
171
Scenario 2 -
Domestic
39
Land conversion vs. today (million Ha)
Land Conversion for Agriculture in 2030 and 2050 Food Security: % of Max. Theoretical Output Left
Indicative Impact on Ecosystem service value Water Impact: Withdrawals as % of “Supply”
Today
2030
2050

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Scenario Implications
Key measures to reduce eco-system services damage and resource depletion
Drive Sustainable Intensification
Build
expertise
- Fund agricultural R&D
- Develop eco-agricultural
approach
- Smallholder education/ training
- Knowledge transfer
Yield focus - optimal crop selection
- high yield/resilient seed varieties
- fertiliser management
- Close yield gaps on cash crops
- Renovation of old plantations
- Mixed plantations
Integrate
water
management
- Irrigation infrastructure
- improve irrigation efficiency
- rain water harvesting
Smallholder
support
- Fairtrade/ floor prices
- Market access infrastructure
Minimise impact of land conversion
Land use
prioritisation
- Natural capital costing by land type
- Identify prime and good land
- Long and short term plan
- Domestic calorie focus
Land use change
governance
- optimal crop selection
- high yield/resilient seed varieties
- fertiliser management
- Close yield gaps on cash crops
- Renovation of old plantations
- Mixed plantations
Total system
approach
- reduce post-harvest losses
(infrastructure)
- design adequate, varied nutrition
- infrastructure (water supply,
transport)
- population planning (key lever,
beyond scope of this paper)
Action required now

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The Toolkit
We need tools to understand and communicate trade-offs
1. Natural land state evolution: Plan land use
changes over time
2. Land Conversion pathway: Ecosystem services
vs. Calorie production
3. Water security: Impacts on supply and withdrawal
(to be developed)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 1000 2000
Calories per day
2010 2030 2050
Make the right decisions

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Thank You!

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Thank You!

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Thank You!