Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SCHUSTER
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SCHUSTER
- 1. Seite 1 Integrated Financial Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience Session 28: Risk Transfer Mechanisms in DRR Davos, Wednesday 31 August 2016 (2-3:30pm) Dr. Sandra Schuster About Climate Risk Insurance +
- 2. Seite 2 Overview 1) Natural catastrophes and climate change in China 2) The challenge 3) Our approach 4) Integrated Climate Risk Management
- 3. Seite 3 Recent Events: Typhoon Nida, August 3rd 2016 • Strongest tropical cyclone in 30 years with wind speeds up to 100 km/h (Typhoon Signal No. 8) hit Guangdong province • Impacted over 495,000 people in 5 provinces of mainland China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, and Yunnan) • 37,000 people were required to evacuate • 300 homes and 2,700 hectares of crops were completely destroyed while 2,400 homes and 16,900 hectares of crops were damaged • Economic losses totaled around US$76.9 million Source: CNN (2016) Source: english.gov.cn (2016) Source: Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs (2016)
- 4. Seite 4 Recent Events: Rainfall in China - Floods July 2016 • China has experiences its worst flooding in 20 years due to 21% higher than average rainfall1 • 28 provinces affected • 60 million people impacted (over 500,000 evacuated and 300 killed) • The damage is estimated at US$44.7 billion • Roughly 50% of China’s cities don’t meet national flood prevention safety standards. 1http://africa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2016-07/27/content_26235521.htm 2China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Monthly Precipitation Anomaly for July 2016 Source: IRI Columbia The area around Beijing has experienced up to +300mm/month compared to the average from 1979- 2000
- 5. Seite 5 Associated insured losses Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission and China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/documents/20160804-ab- analytics-if-july-global-recap.pdf • Claims payouts for the floods represented less than 2% of the economic cost, with most of the claims from lost agriculture • An estimated 18 million acres of cropland damaged by floodwater Source: Forbes (2016)
- 6. Seite 6 Source: Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE Convection storm events* in China 1980 - 2015 Number of relevant events In June, a tornado hit Yancheng in coastal Jiangsu province, killing at least 98 people and injuring more than 800
- 7. Seite 7 The challenge - global: • Extreme weather events are increasing in their frequency and intensity • Economic losses from weather-related disasters in developing countries amounted to USD 8.1 billion over the past decade • Non-economic losses such as the loss of lives, livelihoods or ecosystems further aggravate the situation Source: BMZ (2015) © 2016 Münchner Rückversicherungs- Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE Source: Swiss Re (2016) Insured vs. Uninsured Losses (USD bn)
- 8. Seite 8 … and in China: Source: Swiss Re (2016). Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting, sigma catastrophe database; Statistical Yearbooks 1950–2013 Catastrophe insurance payout ratios China’s direct economic losses from meteorological disasters 1950–2013 as a percentage of GDP
- 9. Seite 9 • Residual risks (after risk reduction) call for risk transfer approaches to build resilience • Risk transfer is one way of dealing with these residual risks: • Climate risk insurance schemes thus form an important part of a comprehensive climate risk management approach. Our approach: Disaster risk management, including risk transfer Source: BMZ
- 10. Seite 10 Our approach: “Integrated Risk Management Approach” • Risk mitigation can be improved, losses and costs for reconstruction can be reduced, the payment of premiums quickened by availability and transparency of information
- 11. Seite 11 For example, climate risk insurance solutions can: • Incentivize climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction (e.g., risk mapping, EWS, building codes) • Safeguard local risk management approaches • Facilitate risk management and risk reduction policies (which reduce premiums) • Facilitate contingency planning (e.g., the Africa Risk Capacity (ARC) requires member states to develop such contingency plans to guarantee immediate action after the pay-outs). Source: tripadvisor.uk
- 12. Seite 12 Theme/Sector/Country Theme/Sector/Country Theme/Sector/Country Knowledge Management Political Dialoge BMUB Advisory ICRM (Integrated Climate Risk Management with a focus on Transfer) lessons learnt, best practises and other publications in at least 3 sectors are comprehensively available, offering reliable solutions for selected context / countries Public authorities develop context-specific ICRM concepts, including implementation plans, in selected partner countries of the project ICRM concepts and implementation experience is made available to the international debate (i.e. delegate meetings, side events, bilateral talks, international events) on climate risk management for replication and scaling-up purposes ICRM is on the agenda of the BMUB Work packages ACRI+ Integrated Climate Risk Management (ICRM)
- 13. Seite 13 Our implementing partners in China: International Reinsurance companies • Support policy making processes by providing technical expertise. • Implement projects to gather results and feed back lessons into policy processes. • To cluster German expertise and strengthen the German contribution to improved disaster risk management worldwide. • Commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
- 14. Seite 14 Harbour Authority has a perception that their Port infrastructure is resilient and provides sufficient protection against risk Ports For example: Port Infrastructure （基础设施、铁路、高速、港口） Railway Natural Gas Electricity Waste Water Treatment Water Heat Hazardous Waste Treatment Pipe Rack However, they are not considering: Clients complex and varied business and interactions/connectivity Surrounding environment (e.g nearby Nuclear PP) Increased hazards due to nature of business (waste, energy etc.)
- 15. Seite 15 Hazard Analysis Exposure Analysis Direct Impact Risk Reduction Assessment Risk Preparedness Assessment Insurance Modelling for different integrated intervention levels Contingency Assessment Identify risk / hazard exposures which require re-planning / re- structuring of lay-out / technical update Indirect Impact Recommendations for immediate actions (high risk / hazard exposures ) Vulnerabilty Analysis Risk Report Hazard Analysis Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
- 16. Seite 16 Thank you for your attention! 谢谢
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Many thanks for the opportunity to present here today. My presentation will provide an overview and update on recent developments: InsuResilience – the Climate Risk Insurance Initiative launched by the G7 in Elmau, Germany last year. Powerpoint presentation upload Powerpoint presentations can either be uploaded through the conference management system (-> edit contribution details -> final upload -> 2nd file) or directly at the Presentation Upload Station at the registration desk upon your arrival at the Davos Congress Centre. Presentation time: 12 min incl. Q&A Session 28: Risk Transfer Mechanisms in DRR Time: Wednesday, 31/Aug/2016: 2:00pm - 3:30pm EMAIL VON BARTHELS Dear Panellists of the "Risk Transfer Mechanisms in DRR" Session at the IDRC, Chloe Demrovsky (in cc) and I have the pleasure to be your facilitators during this session. We would like to check a view things with you in advance. - We have 7 speakers and max. 90 minutes for the whole session. - Please try to make it short and plan with 10 minutes for your presentation. - It would be great, if you are at the room approx. 10 minutes before the session starts. - Please tell us in advance if you can’t make it and if you will not present. - We suggest to keep the order as in the programme: BACANI, Butch | SCHUSTER, Sandra | GEORGIADIS, Alexandros | MUIR-WOOD, Robert | ZHANG, Jing | MI, Hong | YING, Zhuorong And we kindly ask for two favours: - Please provide the following information about yourself: position, organisation, country (for the introduction of the speakers). - Please explain in one sentence (!) the main gaps or obstacles in your project/research which needs to be addressed by the DRM community. It would be great if you could forward the information asap, and by Friday 26 August the latest. If you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to ask. Best regards, Christian Christian Barthelt Project Manager Munich Re Foundation From Knowledge to Action Königinstraße 107 80802 München Phone: +49 (0)89 3891 4229 cbarthelt@munichre-foundation.org www.munichre-foundation.org
- Source: English website for the Chinese government - http://english.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/08/03/content_281475408119692.htm According to the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA), the strongest tropical cyclone in 30 years with wind speeds were up to 100 km per hour hit Guangdong, China on August 3rd, 2016 Impacted over 495,000 people in 5 provinces of mainland China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, and Yunnan) 37,000 people were required to evacuate 300 homes and 2,700 hectares of crops were completely destroyed while 2,400 homes and 16,900 hectares of crops were damaged Economic losses totaled around US$76.9 million
- According to Forbes, China is currently experiencing its worst flooding in 20 years due to 21% higher than average rainfall 28 provinces have been affected, 60 million people have been impacted, over 500,000 have been evacuated, and 300 have died The damage has been estimated at US$44.7 Billion According to China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, roughly 50% of China’s cities don’t meet national flood prevention safety standards. http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/07/28/historic-flooding-costs-china-44-7-billion-so-far-this-year-ruthless-urbanization-takes-its-toll/#77345eff513b Bejing 1960 to 1990 july monthly average is 110 mm (Source UEA)
- According to Aon Benfield, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission said claims payouts for the floods represented less than 2.0 percent of the economic cost, with most of the claims from lost agriculture Nearly 20 provincial regions were impacted by floods that have been ongoing in some areas since May. Among the hardest-hit areas came in Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Beijing, and Hebei provinces Considerable damage to the agricultural sector was also prevalent with an estimated 18 million acres of cropland damaged by floodwater. Total combined economic losses were estimated at USD33 billion, with at least USD28 billion occurring in the Yangtze River Basin. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission cited claims payouts representing less than 2.0 percent of the economic cost, with most of the claims from lost agriculture. http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/documents/20160804-ab-analytics-if-july-global-recap.pdf Much of China endured substantial seasonal “Mei-Yu” rainfall during the month of July that led to a dramatic worsening of flooding along the Yangtze River Basin and in the country’s northeast. Nearly 20 provincial regions were impacted by floods that have been ongoing in some areas since May. Among the hardest-hit areas came in Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Beijing, and Hebei provinces. Data from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs indicated that a combined 764 people were left dead or missing, and that more than 800,000 homes and other structures were damaged or destroyed. Considerable damage to the agricultural sector was also prevalent with an estimated 18 million acres of cropland damaged by floodwater. Total combined economic losses were estimated at USD33 billion, with at least USD28 billion occurring in the Yangtze River Basin. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission cited claims payouts representing less than 2.0 percent of the economic cost, with most of the claims from lost agriculture.
- Convection storm evens in China over the past 30 years show a have slowly increased to 2013 and have since skyrocketed -Convective storm events include severe storm, hail, tornado, lightning, flash flood -Accounted events have caused at least one fatality and/or produced normalized losses > US$ 1m -münchener rückversicherungs-gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NATCAT Service
- Extreme weather events are increasing in their frequency and intensity Economic losses from weather-related disasters in developing countries amounted to USD 8.1 billion over the past decade - Non-economic losses such as the loss of lives, livelihoods or ecosystems further aggravate the situation - The poor and vulnerable suffer the most: 310 million people in developing countries suffered from impacts of climate-related disasters in the last 4 years
- Extreme weather events are increasing in their frequency and intensity Economic losses from weather-related disasters in developing countries amounted to USD 8.1 billion over the past decade - Non-economic losses such as the loss of lives, livelihoods or ecosystems further aggravate the situation - The poor and vulnerable suffer the most: 310 million people in developing countries suffered from impacts of climate-related disasters in the last 4 years
- The diagram illustrates the link between the stages of disaster risk management. The stages include: Risk analysis, prevention & mitigation, preparedness, risk transfer, disaster, response, resilient recovery, response, as well as linking relief, rehabilitation and development. These are all encompassed by resilience
- Risk mitigation can be improved, losses and costs for reconstruction can be reduced, the payment of premiums quickened by availability and transparency of information The approach seeks to promote sustainable development by reducing the vulnerability associated with climate risk. CRM involves strategies aimed at maximizing positive and minimizing negative outcomes for communities in fields such as agriculture, food security, water resources, and health
- Incentivize climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction (e.g., risk mapping, EWS, building codes) Safeguard local risk management approaches Facilitate risk management and risk reduction policies (which reduce premiums ) Facilitate contingency planning (e.g., the Africa Risk Capacity (ARC) requires member states to develop such contingency plans to guarantee immediate action after the pay-outs).
- Integrated Climate Risk Management (ICRM) concepts are currently being developed for four countries by GIZ across urban, agriculture, energy and sustainable tourism sectors. This project is funded through the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Ministry of Environment (BMUB). This presentation will outline integrated approaches for climate risk management and transfer and will highlight GIZ’s urban resilience work in China where an ICRM concept is being developed.
- GI DRM Main Objective: To cluster German expertise and strengthen the German contribution to improved disaster risk management worldwide Approach: A cross-regional, multi-stakeholder cooperation mechanism focusing on emerging economies as regional development drivers Linking of German and regional experts from the public and private sector, academia and civil society to develop innovative solutions enhancing resilience and contribute to (climate change related) disaster risks reduction Priority areas: Strengthening Disaster Response Preparedness and Civil Protection Critical Infrastructure and Economic Cycles Effective Early Warning Systems Advisory board: - Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) (Chair) - Federal Foreign Office (AA) - Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) - Federal Ministry of the Interior (BMI) - Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) - Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) Collaborating countries: Asia: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam Latin America and the Caribbean: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru What is MCII? Non-profit, leading innovation lab on climate change & insurance. Hosted at UNU-EHS (Bonn) Mission: provide a forum for insurance-related expertise on climate change impacts and explore ways how to develop sustainable approaches that create incentive structures for risk- and poverty reduction. Launched by Munich Re (2005) based on UNFCCC (Article 4), Kyoto Protocol (Article 3): Insurance plays a role in adaptation to climate change!