The document discusses the urgent need to focus on priorities and impact for a sustainable future. It notes that time is running out to put the world on track for a quality life for children. Several key issues are addressed, including climate change and biodiversity loss. Charts show various environmental impacts exceeding planetary boundaries and population growth outpacing reductions in consumption. Sustainable development goals aim to address connections between the economy, society and biosphere. Real plans exist to transition to renewable energy and circular economies by 2050, but rich countries must make the hardest changes. The discussion focuses on how to better prioritize and maximize impact for a sustainable future.

1. Time is running out:
Focus on Priorities and Impact
for Our Sustainable Future
Impact School 2017
Humboldt Institute
for Internet & Society
30.11.2017, Berlin
Dr. Gregor Hagedorn
Twitter de: @Wozukunft
Twitter en: @BiodivMatters

2. FIRST A BRIEF SURVEY:

3. A quality life for our children:
1. Who believes, we are on track?
2. Who knows how to get on track?
3. Who simply does not know enough?
4. Who thinks it is hopeless?

4. Please Comment at:
@BiodivMatters
#ImpactSchool2017

5. Impact: We discussed …

6. Impact: Dissemination and Uptake
Researchers consider their results interesting.
Do other people agree? How to know?
Do other people see the results?
Does the researcher know who should?
(Audience-specific communication vs. Spam!)
Are they being informed? (Dissemination!)
Can they? (Open Access, Open Data!)
→ Uptake! Success!

7. → Uptake! Success!

8. … but earlier …

9. Impact: Research selection
Is the research Nice or Necessary?
(Not same as: Curiosity-Driven
vs. Problem-Driven research)
Are researchers aware of Societal Challenges?
Which Timeframes do they consider?
Which Personal Background and Experiences?
Plus: Competences, motivation, lab, equipment …

10. Impact review is standard for EU,
but mostly absent in Germany!

11. OUR PLANET

12. Our Spaceship …

13. RAUMSCHIFF
Spaceship Management:
Stored Goods and Energy
Available Waste Storage
Recycling Productivity
Management, Repair, &
Innovation Capacity of Crew

14. How does our command bridge look?

15. Command bridge - a bit dated?, 1968

16. On the Radar:
The Status of our
Planetary Boundaries

17. Planetary Boundaries w. Legend (Print)
GraphrecreatedG.HagedornCCBY-SA4.0,afterSteffen,Richardson,Rockström,etal.2015.Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet(CLOSEDCONTENT)
Beyond
boundary
(HIGH RISK)
Zone of
Uncertainty
Safe Zone
Unknown
boundary,
not yet
quantified
GraphrecreatedG.HagedornCCBY-SA4.0,afterSteffen,Richardson,Rockström,etal.2015.Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet(CLOSEDCONTENT)
Stratospheric
Ozone
Depletion
Ocean
acidification
Atmo-
spheric
Aerosol
Loading
Novel Entities
(chem./radioactive
/biological)
Climate Change
Biosphere
integrity
Land-
System
Change
Freshwater
Use
Functional
diversity
Genetic
diversity
Biogeochemical Flows
Phosphorus
Nitrogen

18. BIODIVERSITY

19. Aichi-Goals for 2020:
No More Biodiversity Loss

20. Biodiversity Loss
(Living Planet Index, WWF 2016)

21. Skylark
-38%
Black-
tailed
Godwit
-61%
Whin-
chat
-65 % Lapwing
-76%
Partridge
-84%
Grafik:G.Hagedorn,2017.Quelle:DDA,Bestandsabnahme1990bis2015(Uferschn.2013).©Bilder,linksn.rechts:Kathy2408CCBY-SA4.0
;AndreasTrepteCCBY-SA2.5;MarekSzczepanekCCBY-SA3.0;HansHillewaertCCBY-SA3.0;MarekSzczepanekCCBY-SA3.0
Bird Population Reductions in 25 years

22. Insects
BY-SA 4.0, Sandipoutsider

23. Biomass
Hallmannetal.2017,PLOSONEhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0185809
Flying Insects:
Biomass ca. -75%
in 25 years!

24. Earth’s Land Mammals by Weight
BY-NC 2.5, Randall Munroe, mod. G. Hagedorn. Data on right side average of Munroe/Smil 2003 and Smil 2010

25. Our Biodiversity
Heritage Disappears
Quickly

26. CLIMATE

27. HansJoachimSchellnhuber,StefanRahmstorf,RicardaWinkelmann,NatureClimateChange,simplified
Is the Paris Climate Goal Arbitrary?
2017-10 000 Jahre
Paris Range (1.5–2°C)
Temperature
Anomaly (°C)

28. HansJoachimSchellnhuber,StefanRahmstorf,RicardaWinkelmann,NatureClimateChange,simplified
Temperature
Anomaly (°C)
Tipping Elements
possibly switched
within Paris
Range
Paris Range (1.5–2°C)

29. Tipping points are
unpredictable!
2° is not safe!

30. Budget for
remaining
Emissions
ModifiedafterChristianaFigueres,H.J.-Schellnhuber,G.Whiteman,JohanRockström,A.Hobley&St.Rahmstorf:Nature2017
Blue Area
= 600 Gt CO2eq

31. Figueres Carbon Crunch 2017
CO2-Emissions
ModifiedafterChristianaFigueres,H.J.-Schellnhuber,G.Whiteman,JohanRockström,A.Hobley&St.Rahmstorf:Nature2017
2040November
2017

32. Was heißt das für unsere Kinder?
My son Magnus is …
6 Years 28 Years
2017 2040
Our generation must do
most of the work!

33. CHALLENGES

34. Graphiken modifiziert durch G. Hagedorn, nach WWF Living Planet Report Deutsche Kurzfassung (2016). Quelle: IGBP, 2016. basierend auf Analysen von Steffen et al., 2015b.
Fertilizer
Fresh water
consumption
Fishery
Loss of
tropical forests
CO2
Population Transport
The Big Acceleration

35. Environmental Impact ≈
Population
BY 2.0 © James Cridland

36. … × Affluence / Life style
BY-SA 2.0 © Lyzadanger & Diliff

37. (… umweltschonend = gutes Leben)
BY-SA 2.0 © Michael SternCC BY-SA 3.0 © Joxemai

38. (…
umweltsch
onend =
gutes
Leben)

39. … × Technological EfficiencyBY 2.0 Kārlis Dambrāns BY 3.0 M Paździora
BY 3.0 Stodtmeister

40. Population Growth
or Affluence?

41. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
(Billion)
Population Growth

42. If Area were Proportional to Ecological Footprint …
(www.worldmapper.org CC BY-NC-ND 3.0; Data: Living Planet Report 2006)

43. 10%
50%
Poorest 50%
cause only
10% of emissions
from individual
consumption
40%
49%RICH
↑
↓
POOR
41%
10%
Emissions from Consumption
(Derivative of Oxfam Briefing 2015, G. Hagedorn 2017)

44. Interactions
−
Environm.
Impact
+
+
Population
Affluence

45. Stopping Population Growth
by Improving Affluence?

46. RICH
↑
↓
POOR
Western Consumption Patterns
(CC BY-SA 4.0 © G. Hagedorn 2017)
Worse than
unsustainable:
Unachievable!
(on a limited planet)

47. Sustainable
Development
Goals

48. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

49. SDG Orga circles
Economy Economy
Society
Society
Biosphere
Biosphere
(CC BY-SA 4.0 © Stockholm resilience centre, Gregor Hagedorn)

50. The SDGs address
the connections,
helping to achieve
The Future we Want

51. Deserted w. Text
The Future is our responsibility!
It won‘t be a thrilling, sexy
„Apocalypse-and-worries-gone“
But it may be an incredible
hard time for our children,
who have to pay back our debts!

52. Act Now!

53. M.Z. Jacobson (2017)
Real
Plans

54. 2050 (in 33 years):
Energy: −50%, 100% RE
Economy & Agriculture:
95% Circular/Recycling
CO2-Emissions: Negative

55. Rich Countries
Have the Hardest
Task!

56. 1. Scope
2. Psychology

57. GenerationenManifest
Germany: Sign the GenerationenManifest.de!

58. Discussion:
How can we better Focus on
Priorities and Impact
for Our Sustainable Future?
Impact School 2017
Humboldt Institute
for Internet & Society
30.11.2017, Berlin
Dr. Gregor Hagedorn
Twitter de: @Wozukunft
Twitter en: @BiodivMatters