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Future of Mobility: Reinvention of the Car

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At Finpro's ITS and MaaS seminar on May 4, Martyn Briggs from Frost & Sullivan discussed the converging trends that are leading to shift away from private cars, the new mobility business models that are becoming well established, and the potential impacts these services can realise in our cities now and in the future.

Veröffentlicht in: Technologie

Future of Mobility: Reinvention of the Car

  1. 1. Future of Mobility: Reinvention of the Car Introducing the Trends & Disruptive Business Models Revolutionising Urban Mobility Finpro ITS and MaaS Seminar, May 2016
  2. 2. 2 Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage We are moving very quickly from public and private transport being separate businesses, to a more Integrated Multi Modal Mobility Network, due to changing demographics, preferences, and technology Converging Trends will lead to a Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage Transport = Private Vehicle  Freedom  Convenience  Status – Progress  No Real Alternative Transport = Door-to-door Mobility  Door-to-door Mobility  New Vehicles: BRT, EV, High Speed Rail  New Business Models: Car Sharing/Pooling  Urban Planning: Reallocation of Space  Integrated Mobility: New technology enabled multi modal integration Gen Y Connectivity Population Growth Urbanization Social Responsibility Air Quality Pollution Congestion Globalization Natural Resources
  3. 3. 3 Integrated Mobility: A User-Centric Approach to Mobility-as-a-Service Technology enabled, any device delivery of real-time, door-to-door, multi-modal travel encompassing pre-trip, in- trip and post-trip services bringing Convenience, Time & Cost Savings to the Mobility User DEMAND RESPONSIVE TRANSPORT (TAXI, BRT) CONNECTED LIVING (including car) INTERCITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT CAR RENTAL & LEASING CAR RENTAL CAR SHARING & POOLING INTRACITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT PHYD INSURANCE DYNAMIC PARKING CONCIERGE SERVICES ENERGY MANAGEMENT MICRO- MOBILITY SOLUTIONS TRAIN/FLIGHT INTEGRATION APPS, JOURNEY PLANNING, BIG DATA
  4. 4. 4 Mega Trends Leading to a Convergence in Mobility New Business Models will continue to grow as part of the convergence towards Electric, Connected, Shared, and eventually Autonomous Mobility Electric Mega Trends Influence on Drivetrain Autonomous Influence of Self- Driving Features on Vehicle Interior / Exterior Connectivity In Vehicle, Infrastructure, Grid Mobility Convergence Exciting New Business Models • Shared Mobility • Carsharing • Ridesharing • Ride hailing / taxis • Parking • Bikesharing • Dynamic minibuses • Integrated Mobility Enabling Layers • Data Security • Safety • “Real-Time” Maps, Images & interpretation • L1-5 Automation
  5. 5. 5 Future of Mobility Headline Discussions The last car you'll ever buy may already be in your driveway (Autoblog) “Most Millennials Won't Own A Car In 5 Years” -Lyft Co-Founder John Zimmer (July 2015) “There’s a lot of people that want access to a car, but they don’t want to buy one” -Moovel CFO Marcus Spickermann “We are moving from Car enabled, to car related, and car independent premium mobility services” BMW Mobility Services “If we start losing powertrain we will be unable to hang on to any proprietary knowledge or business control” -Sergio Marchionne, CEO FCA “We took the commodity part of the business and let others make the innovation' Scott Keogh” -Audi Americas President “Staggered to see how much capital is tied up in car manufacturing” Andrew Brenner, Android Auto GM plans $5.5B in cost cuts to help finance new mobility (Oct 2015)… GM is investing $500m in Lyft to develop self-driving cars; GM raids what’s left of Sidecar to support Lyft (Jan 2016) “It's not for others to disrupt us, it's for us to disrupt ourselves” – Ford CEO Mark Fields
  6. 6. 6 Market Potential in Sharing Economy The Sharing Economy is projected to grow from $15bn to $335bn by 2025* Global Market for Sharing Economy 25.0 9.3 8.4 8.0 4.8 Airbnb Wyndam Hotel Hyatt Intercontinental Extended Stay AirBnB is bigger than Hyatt Uber is bigger than Hertz and Car Companies Valuation, 2014, $ billion $15 billion $335 billionCAGR = 30% 2013 2025 Growthrates *) Source: Forbes & PWC + 63% Money Lending + 37% Staffing + 31% Accommodation + 23% Car Sharing + 17% Music Streaming + 5% Equipment rental 12.4 6.3 12.9 10.4 Uber Hertz Avis Fiat Mitsibushi Valuation, 2014, $ billion 62.5
  7. 7. 7 The world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles The world’s most popular media owner, creates no content The world’s most valuable retailer, has no inventory The world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate What could this mean for Mobility?  The world’s largest rail company, owns no trains  The world largest parking company, owns no parking  The world largest mobility company, owns no asset  The world largest car company, manufacturers no vehicles  . . . Source: Tom Goodwin (Tech Crunch) The Growing Trend of Asset Light Business Models Started in accommodation, content and retail – aggregators, integrators and third parties will revolutionise mobility without owning or operating the assets
  8. 8. 8 Wheels when you want them more social less media Everyone’s private driver Your ride, On Demand your friend with a car a ride whenever you need one Parkatmyhouse.com the online parking marketplace Relayrides: make money renting your car Rent the car – own the adventure the best way from A to B moovel brings you everywhere All transportation options, one app Search, discover, explore Moving your way Simply. Always. Everywhere. OurCar. YourCar. WeCar ready, set, freedom find parking near…. parking made easy Premium carsharing with BMW find it drive it drop it Ideas. Focus. Solutions Innovating Fleet since 1965 Mobility Messaging – How do the key players position? In this increasingly competitive market – branding is key to understanding and adoption of new mobility business models, reflected by the continuous dynamic nature of their messaging Before After
  9. 9. 9 The rise of Uber and more is yet to come… Disruptors such as Tesla and Uber are evolving the automotive landscape. Why? The vision is much wider than the product/service that they operate in now – valuation confirms this Telco Navigation ehail Logistics Fleet Insurance Payment Finance Lifestyle OEMs DATA MonetizationAUTOMATION Uber Uber Uber – super premium Uber advertising – geomarketing Uber Public Transport – Bus, Coach, Train Autonomous Fleet Extension of transportation value chain ??? IPO Intelligent Mobility Uber Alternate – bikes, motorbikes Influx of funding will spur hyper growth Shift from asset light to asset heavy Control cities' transportation network. Intelligent infrastructure – V2V V2X Integrated mobility solutions
  10. 10. 10 Key Trends & Outlook for the Mobility Market With considerable business model innovation, investment, and public sector support, the mobility ecosystem is set to become more integrated with existing transit networks Integrated Mobility-as-a- service Increasing peer to peer (for parking, cars, rides, taxis) Investment & Partnerships from OEMs Dynamic Pricing Increased Tenders from Cities & Public Support Parking Reservation, valet/automated parking “Car on Demand” analytics & Big Data Automated Driving Source: Frost & Sullivan
  11. 11. 11 Intelligent Mobility 2015 Video (…join us in London June 28/29th) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HakdWTPAUvQ
  12. 12. 12 The Emerging Urban Mobility Landscape Many innovations and mobility services are blurring the lines between public transport and private car ownership, creating several opportunities for new shared mobility services Distance Travelled Cost&Convenience Source: Frost & Sullivan Car Rental Micro-mobility eHailing Taxi (On- Demand) Bikesharing Carpooling (Fixed) P2P Carsharing Integrated Mobility: Plan, Book, Pay Dynamic Shuttle (On- Demand) • Integrated Mobility Offers vast potential to offer multiple modes and services, and segment customer types using the same platform. • An ecosystem of partnerships is required to deliver this in multiple cities/countries Parking Financial Services Round Trip Carsharing One Way Carsharing Public Transit Carpooling (Dynamic.Corporate) Supporting Services Private Car
  13. 13. 13 From Shared to Business Mobility in Europe New Shared Mobility models are increasingly becoming corporate, creating new use cases & partnership potential. This is creating high growth opportunities for OEMs and commercial fleet sectors Bike Sharing Taxi ApplicationsSmart Parking Carpooling / Ridesharing Car Club Models Implications to Mobility • Increased threat from new segments • Agility & scalability - risk of falling behind • Heavy technology use & increasing platforms (Asset Light) • Cross sector partnerships & aggregation • Increased utilisation & business potential Actions from the Industry • Integration of P2P, B2B, B2C to cross sell • Partnerships for value added services • Short term sharing/rental merging with leasing business models • Continued investments & consolidation €2.7bn Revenues 23m Members 1m Taxi / FHVs 139k Bikes, 430 Cities Europe Stats >5m Members Combined
  14. 14. 14 Frost & Sullivan’s Vision for the Future of Corporate Mobility New Mobility Business Models & digitalisation are set to innovate and disrupt the B2B World Integrated Multi Modal Platforms (for business) Changing working locations/patterns change mobility requirements Multiple sectors increasing footprint – OEMs, Leasing, Rental Rise of Internet Aggregators (smartphone enabled) Growth of “sharing” reducing need to own / sole use (e.g. company car) Mobility Auditing & Mobility Budgets
  15. 15. 15 Shaping Society Building Ecosystem 1st Commercial Operators Case Study: Helsinki Mobility-As-A-Service (MAAS) Concept Integration of public and private forms of mobility under the same platform will give rise to a new type of mobility business model – a monthly subscription for Mobility Partners 3 Phases in Enabling MAAS Finland’s MAAS integrates all forms of shared and public transport in a single payment network could essentially render private cars obsolete; the key differentiator will be commercial agreements, and user experience Source: Frost & Sullivan
  16. 16. 16 Level4Level3Level2 Tesla Level5 2030202520202016 Mercedes Audi Cadillac Volvo Nissan Ford Tesla Tesla Audi Tesla GM Apple* Mercedes BMW Volvo Volvo Ford GM Hyundai Hyundai Nissan Ford GMJLR VW VW Hyundai VW JLR Commercialization of Level 2 Commercialization of Level 4 Google Faraday Future Early Adopter Curve Zone of Disruption Audi BMW BMW Autonomous Driving Market: Introduction to Market Roadmap, Global, 2016–2030 Mercedes Autonomous Driving: Introduction to Market Roadmap Approximately 30–40 vehicles (from various OEMs) featuring LIDAR for active safety and automated capabilities (standard or optional) will enter the market in the next 10 years; E and F segments will comprise the majority.
  17. 17. 17 Current Motor Insurance Model Future Motor Insurance Model Assess Risk Individual’s driving behaviour is given higher weight Vehicle owner pays premium based on the risk factors Liability is on the insured, as stated in the policy clause System capabilities to be key factors OEMs and other stakeholders to pay premium* Liability to be primarily on vehicle manufacturer *Vehicle owner pays premium to cover some excesses such as theft, fire, and vandalism. >80% <20% Liability Collect Premium Assess Risk Liability Collect Premium Driver-centricevaluation Considers value-added features such as increased comfort and option to take manual control Risk Assessment Approaches 3. System-centric evaluation Type of vehicle such as pods and group rapid transit vehicles to be considered 2. Product-centric evaluation Evaluated for critical parameters such as crash prevention, crash worthiness, and algorithm 1. Brand-centric evaluation Or Or Motor Insurance Business Model With the driver no longer responsible for controlling the vehicle, driver-related parameters lose their weight; thus, the onus of paying premiums is likely to shift from the vehicle owner to the OEM. Source: Frost & Sullivan
  18. 18. 18 Changing Role of Public Sector in Mobility As consumer habits change and technology allows innovative services, the role of the public sector is also adapting and partnering to enable, facilitate, or restrict some of the emerging mobility business models New Regulations for Mobility services Automated Driving Carsharing Tenders, Operations, SLA’s Flexible scheduling & on-demand transit Bikesharing Tenders Parking Supply & Monetisation Open Data Integrated Mobility- As-A-Service Source: Frost & Sullivan
  19. 19. 19 Corporate Car-Sharing Bike Sharing Parking Car Rental Integrated Mobility E-Mobility Micro-mobility Public Transport Car Sharing Ridesharing Taxi Services New Mobility Business Models & Partnerships Enable First/Last Mile In both B2C and B2B environments customers are demanding intuitive services; many players investing significantly to deliver a seamless proposition & user experience for Integrated Mobility Travel Management Companies OEMs Car Rental Companies Public Transport Operators Fleet & Leasing Companies Software Platform Providers Integrated Solution Providers Insurance Providers Integrated Mobility What is needed for mobility solutions to become “mainstream”? Policy, Investment & Behaviour Change
  20. 20. 20 Evolution of OEMs Mobility Services Car companies are evolving from the business of manufacturing & selling just cars, to providing related services, and multi-modal mobility solutions to target new customers, and future proof their business Evolution&ExpansionofOEMServices Car Independent Car Ownership Car Services Integrated Mobility: Journey Planning, Booking & Payment City Planners & Lifestyle Energy creation & storage Finance Maintenance Connected Services Carsharing Parking & Charging Ride- sharing Taxi & Limousine Automated Driving
  21. 21. 21 Conclusions & Outlook for Mobility If we shift from ownership to access of mobility services, what business models, regulation, and partnerships are required, and how will the value chain evolve? Mobility is becoming far more connected, asset light, and integrated – Customer expectations are shifting from ownership to tech-enabled mobility The lines between B2B, B2C and P2P, and public/private transport are blurring and creating space for new players & services What is needed for mobility services to become mainstream? A combination of Policy, Investment, and Behaviour Change The pace of change is accelerating – technology providers are crucial to mobility services and can shape the evolution of MaaS Is Finland ready to adopt Mobility-as-a-Service instead of private vehicle ownership? Technology enables the shift from ownership to access & usage
  22. 22. 22 Future of Mobility Video Martyn Briggs Industry Principal, Mobility, Direct: (+44) 2079157830 Mobile: +44 (0) 753 428 2371 martyn.briggs@frost.com Join our discussions on LinkedIn and connect with us on @FS_automotive @BriggsMartyn Watch our latest Video on the Future of Mobility, filmed live at Frost & Sullivan’s Annual Mobility Workshop Thank You & Keep in Touch! #IntelligentMobility Join us in London, June 2016!