The behind the scenes of today’s satellite imagery technology and what it can do for your farm. Leander Campbell, AAFC Ottawa, Chris Olbach, Corteva Agriscience and Alex Whitley, Taranis
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18. Satellite, Yields and Management - Leander Campbell
1. Forecasting Canadian Crop Yields
…with Satellites!
Forecasting Canadian Crop Yields
…with Satellites!
@LeanderCampbell (AAFC-Ottawa)
#EOCC19
@LeanderCampbell (AAFC-Ottawa)
#EOCC19
2. Internal AAFC system that produces regional & national crop
yield forecasts during & shortly after the growing season.
Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF)
@LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
• Starting in the 2013, an experimental outlook report was
delivered to a group of selected “beta” users for evaluation.
• Outlook reports are released around the middle of July, August,
September & October (for soybean & corn only).
2018 Forecasted Crops: Spring Wheat, Durum, Canola, Barley, Oats,
Flaxseed, Lentils, Soybean, Corn for Grain
3. @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
Current CCYF Operational Scale and Input Data
Climate Data: Tmax, Tmin and Precip.
EO Data: AVHRR NDVI (1987- present)
Historical Yield: Census Agricultural Region (CAR)
Crop Mask: By crop
Soil Information: By station
Current CCYF Operational Scale & Input Data
4. • Process based Versatile Soil Moisture Budget (VSMB)
model: to generate agroclimate indices from climate,
crop and soil data
• Statistical algorithms for predictor selection, model
building, data generation and probability forecast.
A Simplified Look at the CCYF Methodology
@LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
Cdn Water Resource Journal Vol. 35(2): 187–208 (2010) Hayashi et al
5. Example Output of the CCYF – Wheat
Predicted
80%
confidence
interval
range:
19.7 - 23.8
million/t
or
724 – 875
million/bu
@LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
13. • Demands for early season yield and production
estimates from producers, commodity brokers, grain
transporters and government policy makers.
• Statistics Canada (STC), desire to address some
issues associated with traditional survey-based yield
estimates:
Heavy questionnaire burden on farmers
Human-related biases
Short lead time
MOTIVATION – Why do this?
@LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
14. Comparison of National Yield Estimates (AAFC & STC)
2018 Growing Season
(Yields are in bushels/acre except for Lentils which are in 10 X pounds/acre)
Spring
Wheat
Canola
Oats
Durum
Wheat
Soybeans
Barley
Corn for Grain
Flax
Lentils
@LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
15. Who Looks at this Information?
Groups that are currently on the CCYF Beta Distribution List
@LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
AAFC Science &
Technology Branch
Strategic Policy Branch
Market & Industry
Services Branch
Programs Branch
STC
University Scientists
Provincial Govt At least 1 provincial recipient in each province except BC, NL
GoC Departments
Private Industry
International Orgs
Scientific research; Operations
International trade
Risk Management; Innovation
Policy development
All beta users provide feedback
to aid in creating a more robust
product in the future
16. What’s Next for the CCYF?
@LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
• Further investigate results at provincial and CAR levels to
find regional patterns in model performance.
• Test other combinations of the datasets to find the best
option for each crop.
• Work out a near real time data acquisition and
processing flow to meet operational needs.
