The presentation is based on a conference article by Aleksi Neuvonen and professor Peter Ache (Radboud University Nijmegen) and it was held at Urban Futures - Squaring Circles 2050: Europe, China and the World conference in Lisbon on October 11th 2014. It revisits the Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 process in 2006-2009 and evaluates it from the perspectives of backcasting scenarios and strategic learning.

1. Metropolitan vision making – using
backcasting as strategic learning process to
shape metropolitan futures
Urban Futures Squaring the Circles 2050 – Europe, China and the Rest of the World
October 10th -11th
Aleksi Neuvonen
Demos Helsinki/Radboud University Nijmegen
aleksi.neuvonen@demoshelsinki.fi
Twitter: @leksis
Prof Peter Ache
Radboud University Nijmegen
p.ache@fm.ru.nl

2. 1.The challenge: Entering the era of metropolitan spaces
2.The context: Helsinki metropolitan region
3.Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 ideas competition & follow-up process
4.Backcasting method
5.GHV2050 as a backcasting process
6.Conclusions

3. Need for tools apt for managing metropolitan futures
Urban mega-structures
Coalitions around ‘visionary field’
Competitiveness
Wicked problems
Incrementalism with perspective
Engaging visioning
Urban structures
Clear governance structures
Social cohesion
Limited, simple problems
Rational, incremental approach
Top-down processes

4. Helsinki metropolitan region
(Europe - Nordic countries - Finland)
14 municipalities, no formal
governance structure

5. Population: 1 400 000 (Finland: 5 410 000)
Expected population 2030: 1 650 000
GDP per capita: 48 682 €
% of pop. with Academic Degree: 45.7

6. Jury protocol:
http://www.safa.fi/document.php?DOC_ID=477&SEC=3b7e84702d5cd67f9d9cc253bb456b30&SID=1
The case

7. 7 These entries
were awarded
P_EMP /

8. 2050 2050
Goals,
Boundary
conditions,
‘perspective’
Future 1
Future 2
Future 3
Future 4
Unexpected
events
Decisions
Scenarios
Drivers
Long-term
trends
Promising
practices
Incremental steps
Slow implementation
processes
2014 2020 2030 2050
Method: Backcasting scenario process

9. Method: Backcasting timeline technique
(counting backwards)

10. Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 and its follow-up process were not
scenario exercises. However, we tried to analyze the process as an
exercise of backcasting scenario approach that included a notion on
acceptable futures and description on step-by-step change.

11. Backcasting 1: soft space initiatives and timelines
(ideas competition)

12. Backcasting 2: learning through evaluation of
radical ideas distilled from competition entries
(follow-up process)

13. Backcasting 3: platform for a coalition,
vision and a new plan (the current 14 municipality planning process)
Long-term
structural plan Implementation
plan
Vision for
implementation
Metropolitan
council elections
(National government
decision in 2014)
2014 2017
2025 2040 2050
Helsinki region cooperation process: http://www.helsinginseutu.fi/hki/HS/The+Region+of+Helsinki/Cooperation+in+the+region

14. Conclusions
1. The need to expand the problem solving capacity beyond existing
governance structures and its incumbent experts is there.
2. Open processes are needed; ‘vision’ and ‘backcasting’ are tools for
searching out-of-the-box solutions
3. ‘Emancipatory backcasting’ can bring about strategic learning on
new constraints and emerging opportunities.
4. Planning processes in metropolitan contexts are complex and
require engaging different levels of institutions and stakeholders.
Vision can help in coordinating this action and creating ownership
to implementation.
5. Incrementalism with perspective approach should be considered as
an alternative to naive utopian blue-printing and cynical, vision-less
muddling through.