The national rate of driver turnover in the long-haul segment has remained near or exceeded 100% annually for several decades now. The ATRI and IHS both agree that significant impact on the trucking industry arising from autonomous trucks within the U.S. is likely decades away. Motor carriers stand to benefit in a number of ways by acknowledging that there are accessible measures that should be taken in the interim in order to improve operations. They can take advantage of the appeal surrounding the development of autonomous truck technology, improve the work-life experience at their firm, and become more profitable.

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Driver Turnover & the Advent of Autonomous Vehicles in Trucking
A Look at What’s Coming & What to Do about It
By: Christopher Ferrell
January 30th, 2016
“IHS Automotive1 states that ‘autonomous truck sales could reach 60,000 annually by
2035 [or] 15 percent of sales for trucks in the big Class 8 weight segment.’ There are
currently 3.46 million Class 8 trucks in the U.S.; if hypothetically 60,000 autonomous
trucks were added annually starting today (instead of 20 years from now), it would be
more than five years before autonomous trucks made up 10 percent of the total fleet.
Thus, the IHS prediction does not see rapid adoption in the shorter term.”2
The above quote was taken from a November 2016 report issued by the American
Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) entitled Identifying Autonomous Vehicle Technology
Impacts on the Trucking Industry. I mention it here to address immediate concerns for motor
carriers eager to adopt the new technology in the face of the current driver shortage and
ongoing high driver turnover. The trucking industry demands continuously engaged attention
across an array of economic, technological, and political domains. Significant attention is also
warranted for human factors related to the organization and conduct of labor, especially the
labor of long-haul truck drivers. Oceans of ink are spilled daily in the process of disseminating
economic, technological and political developments as they apply to the logistics industry.
However, significantly less attention is given to better understanding ongoing labor issues, save
for the continuous reaffirmation that high driver turnover among long-haul motor carriers
1 IHS Automotive is partof the London based Information HandlingServices firmand offers research and analysis
to supportdecision makingtools for businesses and governments in various industries to includedefense,
technology, and trade.
2 http://atri-online.org/2016/11/15/identifying-autonomous-vehicle-technology-impacts-on-the-trucking-industry/

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remains an intractable issue. The national rate of driver turnover in this segment has remained
near or exceeded 100% annually for several decades now. The ATRI and IHS both agree that
significant impact on the trucking industry arising from autonomous trucks within the U.S. is
likely decades away. Motor carriers stand to benefit in a number of ways by acknowledging that
there are accessible measures that should be taken in the interim in order to improve
operations. They can take advantage of the appeal surrounding the development of
autonomous truck technology, improve the work-life experience at their firm, and become
more profitable, as I will explain.
The buzz generated from the proliferation of research in autonomous vehicle
technology (AVT) over the past few years has been exciting. Several automotive manufacturers
and technology firms have created partnerships to allow for enhanced integration during AVT
development. Large truck manufacturers have been no exception to this practice. The Otto and
Uber partnership referred to in this article3 from Wired is the latest example of an AVT
development effort paired with a delivery service, Uber Freight, and any automotive original
equipment manufacturer (OEM) for further developing the application of AVT. Otto’s AVT is
intended to retrofit existing vehicles with fully autonomous capability, which could both
broaden and accelerate AVT adoption. I was personally involved with a project created
between an auto manufacturer and academia when Nissan Labs North America partnered with
my alma mater at the University of North Texas (UNT). The joint project entitled The Social Life
3 https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubers-self-driving-truck-makes-first-delivery-50000-beers/

3. 3
of the Car was an effort geared toward better understanding the human factors associated with
AVT development.
As exhilarating as these concepts are for the motoring public, even more excitement is
generated among logistics industry professionals eager to do more than seize upon the safety
and convenience promised by such automation. In the most mature scenario, provided AVT is
able to deliver on all of its promises, the removal of humans from commercial motor vehicles
would likely lift a number of federal restrictions as described in the ATRI report. Doing so would
permit near perpetual commerce and asset utilization for trucking companies enabling them to
maximize their earnings potential. I am excited about the potential AVT has to offer. The grim
task of arranging spreadsheets to track trends related truck crashes and resultant fatalities on
an annual basis really drives home a desire to see AVT succeed. However, it’s simply too early
for motor carriers to pin their hopes of overcoming the issues related to the driver shortage
and high driver turnover on the admittedly promising future of AVT.
The Numbers
The current cost estimate of a fully autonomous, or ‘Level 5’ Class 8 truck is around
$200,000 assuming a $30,000 to $50,000 markup for the autonomous tech.4 Compared to a
conventional Class 8 truck of around $140,0005 paired with an average annual driver wage of
$45,000, it appears that no real cost-barrier is presented by adopting the technology as soon it
becomes commercially available. Add in other factors like the cost of driver benefits, bonuses,
4 https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubers-self-driving-truck-makes-first-delivery-50000-beers/
5 http://www.topspeed.com/trucks/truck-reviews/daimler/2015-freightliner-inspiration-truck-
ar169226.html#main

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turnover expenses including recruitment, training and lost opportunity costs, and the prospect
of AVT becomes even more striking. Additionally, a solo truck driver is typically required by
federal law to stop for 10 hours each workday. This can be overcome with team drivers on a
single truck, but team drivers generally command higher wages than do solo drivers. In either
case, a fully autonomous truck would have no driver wage, nor any need for extended breaks.
However, it should be noted that the vast majority of AVT development is currently centered
on the Level-1 through Level-46 autonomy as discussed in the ATRI report. These levels of AVT
still require human operators as the features at these levels are considered “conditional.” Only
Level-5 AVT is considered fully autonomous, and does not require a human operator.
Widespread adoption of this level of autonomous technology will likely not occur until much
further into the future.
There are some important details about the costs, and by extension, savings potential
related to old-fashioned human truck drivers and non-AVT Class 8 trucks. In 1998 a study7 was
conducted by the Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute in order to create a
comprehensive cost-analysis on driver turnover. Given the relative lack of substantial change in
the industry regarding the categories discussed within the report, it continues to offer valuable
insight. The data collected from 15 participating motor carriers of various sizes and modalities
was distilled into categories that assess costs associated with driver exit, recruitment, training,
6 An example of Level 1 autonomous vehicletechnology would be adaptivecruisecontrol (ACC). Level 2 AVT occurs
when two or more Level 1 functions areworking simultaneously;such as ACC and any form of collision avoidance
systems. Level 3 and 4 AVT get to where the vehiclecan actually driveitself provided certain conditionsaremet
with respect to specific drivingparameters,but require a human operator be present duringa “handoff” where the
AVT may need to return control of the vehicleto a human operator.
7 http://www.ugpti.org/pubs/pdf/SP146.pdf

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hiring and orientation. Items such as the cost of idle equipment, lost business opportunities,
and driver applicant drug screening among several other cost-item categories are estimated.
While the report makes clear the shortcomings of incompletely submitted data and explains
why the cost estimates provided by the study are considered conservative, it has been referred
to so consistently over time within the industry and throughout related studies, that it could be
regarded as the de facto authoritative model detailing many of the costs associated with
replacing a truck driver. The average, conservative estimate provided in the report for the cost
per driver replaced was about $8,000. Adjusted for inflation, at the rate given by the Bureau of
Labor and Statistics with a targeted average of 2% annually, the $8,000 figure becomes $11,000
per driver replaced today, again, conservatively.
Further, it is within large truckload motor carriers that driver turnover is the highest. For
instance, a single, large motor carrier with 2,300 drivers, such as the client carrier for my own
study, USA Truck, Inc., can potentially face a 100% driver turnover rate or higher within a single
year. That carrier would spend an estimated $25 million on driver turnover alone. To put that
figure into context, the Transport Topics Top 1008 list for 2015, showed USA Truck, Inc.’s
reported net revenue for the same year was $11 million; over two times less than what was
possibly spent on reseating trucks. Such figures, regarded as conservative estimates, illustrate
the ceaseless concern and necessity for ongoing research among large, long-haul motor carriers
to identify the causes of and provide effective solutions for the problem of high truck driver
turnover.
8 http://www.ttnews.com/top100/companies/profile.aspx?co=usatruck

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Warning!
Given the tremendous potential benefit of AVT for long-haul trucking, why should there
be any warning at all? The answer lies between the apparent industry-wide fatigue regarding
the perennially high driver turnover rates, and the refreshing excitement surrounding
autonomous vehicles. Driver turnover, especially churn9, is a known value. Even as turnover
appears to be an intractable problem, its size and impact are well understood. Autonomous
vehicles, as exciting as they are, still have many unknown variables, including:
 total cost of operation
 modifications to, and funding for the autonomous vehicle operating environments
 legal concerns
 security concerns
 the coming period of more heavily mixed human and autonomous vehicles operating
simultaneously and in the same areas
To be clear, AVT appears to be very promising for cars and large trucks alike. That said,
maintaining a continued focus on the need to attract and retain quality truck drivers should
remain an industry imperative.
Addressing a real solution to high driver turnover must begin with a more
comprehensive understanding of turnover and why it has perpetuated nearly unabated for so
long. The good news is that my recently concluded research10 addresses this question directly,
and offers valuable insight for the entire logistics industry.
9 Whileturnover refers to the total ratio of driver replacements to account for retirees and drivers thataltogether
exit the industry, churn refers to the drivers that move from one carrier to another; often more frequently than an
annual rate,and accountingfor nearly two-thirds of total turnover.
10 High Driver Turnover Among Large Long-Haul Motor Carriers:Causes and Consequences - publication pending
via the University of North Texas. Currently availablehere: https://www.slideshare.net/ChrisFerrell7/high-driver-
turnover-among-large-longhaul-motor-carriers-causes-consequences

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A New Understanding of Driver Turnover
In order to better contextualize my own study, I thoroughly researched 21 prior studies
focused on driver turnover published between 1988 and 2015. I then created a synthesis matrix
to facilitate a comparative analysis and condensed the 450 pages of relevant material into a 19-
page table.11 One of the most striking conclusions following my own study based on long-
format interviews with drivers from USA Truck, Inc. was the emergence of language as a key,
relevant feature. The way in which language underlies better explanations about driver
reasoning and their turnover decisions is culturally situated, and rarely obvious. The language
used in the short answer surveys employed by nearly all of the prior driver turnover studies was
particularly useful. Perhaps unsurprisingly, when people are given a list of choices as they are in
surveys, they tend to choose from the lists they are given. Typically this approach is taken to
expedite analysis for the researcher, generally for the purpose of determining a numerical value
that can affect a statistical instrument. It is by definition, a confirmation of a preconceived
hypothesis; only a specific value or ratio is being learned. By contrast, the ethnographic
approach which employs long-format interviews and analysis can be a great deal more time-
consuming. However, the responses are not restricted to survey choices or pre-existing
hypotheses which can make the discovery of new categories of data possible and related
findings more productive. This approach allowed me to employ a more interpretive analysis,
11 https://www.slideshare.net/ChrisFerrell7/table-of-truck-driver-turnover-studies

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which was informed by my own 4 years as a long-haul commercial truck driver, 15 months as a
logistics industry researcher, and my formal training as an ethnographer and an anthropologist.
The central finding from my study is this: When drivers feel unable to effectively
communicate with their employing motor carrier or build a relationship based upon mutual
trust and respect with their assigned driver manager, they quit. As barriers to finding their next
job are low, drivers are able to accomplish a renegotiation of their working conditions through
the quit event. When drivers are ready to exercise their freedom, or their independence, and
defend their sense of dignity related to their work-life identity, they accomplish these things
through a quit event. A quit event for a truck driver is essentially the external manifestation of
internalized conflicts reaching a breaking point. The masculine characteristics that fall under the
umbrella of independence inform drivers (irrespective of gender) that if voicing their objections
is not sufficient to effect desired results, then complaining will be even less effective. What’s
more, complaining is not considered masculine, nor indicative of self-reliance, personal
responsibility, or professionalism. Quitting then, is an avenue for drivers to regain a sense of
control over their working conditions and reaffirm their work-life identity. These findings were
far from obvious, and required extensive study in order to tease out the paradox that often
exist between what people say, and what they actually do.
Once a driver is navigating the hiring process with a new carrier, they are effectively
renegotiating their working conditions, likely receiving one-on-one time from support
personnel, and probably not being made to feel like an interruption while doing it. Sign-on
bonuses such as those on offer for the past few years ranging from $500 to $5,000+ can make
this method of renegotiating working conditions especially attractive. Although the overall

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working schedule with respect to home time or even pay (aside from the sign-on bonus) will
likely differ very little, the reaffirmation of independence and personal pride from working out
their own employment or labor issues will improve a driver’s disposition about their work
dramatically. At least for a while. The reasoning behind quit events as described here, simply
could not have been revealed through short answer surveys.
What Can Be Done?
At least as import as a well-defined, and well understood problem is the execution of
specific and measurable actions geared toward effective change. One of the most frequent
complaints from drivers is an inability to maintain expedient or consistent contact with their
assigned driver managers. Study and experience have shown that driver managers can be
assigned as many as 60 drivers on a regular basis12. That also entails the management of 60
trucks, 60 trailers, and possibly 60 loads of freight. There may also be issues related to shippers,
receivers, or brokers in between. A lot can go wrong. Delays, weather, traffic, etc. Literally
anything under the sun. When driver managers are in this situation, they are only able to react
to issues as they develop, or when they are so informed. This precludes their ability to be
consistently proactive, and readily anticipate the needs of their assigned drivers. Intercepting
the accumulation of potential mishaps before they culminate into driver quit events would be a
more effective approach toward driver management. This would require that driver managers
be assigned fewer drivers to manage from the outset.
12 http://fleetowner.com/driver-management-resource-center/dispatchers-drivers-don-t-blame-us

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Let’s not lose sight of the possibility of losing 2,300 drivers in a single year averages out
to 6 driver quits per day. With the estimated cost of each driver “quit” standing at $11,000,
that’s $66,000 per day walking out the door. A number that tends grab your attention. For a
comparison, a look at job postings for driver managers reveals that their salaries are fairly
similar to those of experienced truck drivers, ranging from $40-$60,000 annually. When so
much revenue is being lost through quit events on a daily basis, and given the salience of
increased driver manager contact, decreasing the driver-to-driver manager ratio by increasing
the total number of driver managers may be the most effective and immediate solution that
any motor carrier can employ beginning today. Even a pilot program to test the idea would be a
great start. Given the math, however, a doubling of the number of driver managers may be
warranted for some large motor carriers. If 2,300 drivers were being managed by driver
managers averaging 60 assigned drivers each, that would leave only 38 driver managers to
handle the entire fleet. The cost of doubling the size of the driver manager work force from 38
to 7613, or even tripling it to 114 pales in comparison to the estimated $25 million driver
turnover figure already being lost. Motor carriers must better understand how to listen to and
anticipate their driver’s needs. In order to spend more time with each driver, more and better
trained driver managers must be understood as the most effective and immediate solution.
There is a significant amount of social science and organizational behavior theory to
support this approach. Michèle Lamont and Lawrence Ouellet are two social science authors I
refer in in my own research for their excellent work offering extensive contextual examples of
13 At an average of $50,000 annual salary per driver manager, at 38, the estimated base salary number for all driver
managers in one company of similar sizewould be $1.9 million;a doublingwould be $3.8 million;a triplingwould
be $5.7 million.

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behaviors related to the formation and maintenance of work-life identities. Within the domain
of organizational behavior, Kevin Sheridan’s The Virtual Manager is particularly useful. Drivers
are similar to virtual employees in many ways. People that telecommute, especially in the tech
industry, present notoriously difficult challenges for their managers. This is even truer for long-
haul truck drivers. One key difference is that virtual employees are likely working from home;
obviously not an option for truck drivers. Even with this apparent advantage, virtual managers
must engage very proactively to manage their teams effectively.14 This is an often overlooked
detail within the trucking industry with respect to driver managers and their relationships with
their assigned drivers. I am not suggesting that increasing the number of driver managers alone
will solve all of the problems related to driver retention. However, increasing both the number
and level of training for driver managers will certainly have a significant and positive impact. As
this issue is addressed, and driver retention will likely increase, which should allow motor
carriers to be more selective with the truck drivers they hire from the outside. With greater
selectivity, real benefits can accumulate exponentially. From there, the next area of focus
becomes getting the motor carrier’s clients on board with driver retention efforts. There are
several motor carriers that have already begun to address issues related to the driver-to-driver
manager ratio, as well as scoring client facilities related to accommodations that support driver
well-being and productivity. It is my hope that the findings revealed through my study will help
reiterate the wisdom of this decision as well as add greater context for the reasoning behind it.
In Closing
14 The Virtual Manager by Kevin Sheridan 2012 ISBN 1601631855

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Attracting new drivers to the industry during the current driver shortage is another
challenge. To that end, offering late model equipment has become a staple of recruiting efforts
among several motor carriers for some time now. With the added allure of the development
related to autonomous vehicle technology, especially the Level-1 through Level-4 variety which
continue to require human operators, wider interest in the trucking industry may soon be
sparked among later generations. In the meantime, I contend that motor carriers not yet give
up on more immediately available means of affecting driver retention through improved
management practices and ensuring related resources are made readily available. Logistics
industry publications discussing autonomous trucks will continue to make headlines for the
foreseeable future with all the hype one can stand to read. To counter this, I recommend a
closer look at the more sobering ATRI report on the subject of AVT discussed above, and taking
action regarding the suggestions I have provided here.