Our Market Intelligence Reports offer a unique and in-depth perspective on the workforce solutions industry. In this edition, we will be covering UK employee trends, comprehensive sector analysis and reporting on why 2013 is predicted to be a year of low growth. Visit http://www.carlislems.co.uk to find out more.
2. Summary
2013 is predicted to be a year of low growth at best
Contingent staffing numbers have reached an 11 year high
Unemployment is steadily improving with 500,000 net
permanent jobs created in 2012
Accommodation/Food Services sectors are showing the
strongest growth, with some small gains also in the public
sector
The largest decline, again, came from Information &
Communication
3. Contents
Labour market headlines
Economic & political backdrop
Job vacancy data
Job vacancies by industry with Q1 versus Q2 changes
Contingent worker numbers
UK employment trends
Sector analysis
Data sources
4. Labour Market Headlines – Dec 2012
The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 71.2%, up 0.1% on May to July 2012
and up 0.9% on a year earlier. There were 29.6m people in employment aged 16+, up 40,000
on May to July 2012 and up 499,000 on a year earlier.
The unemployment rate was 7.8% of the economically active population, down 0.2% on May
to July 2012 and down 0.5% on a year earlier. There were 2.51m unemployed people, down
82,000 on May to July 2012 and down 128,000 on a year earlier.
The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 22.6%, up 0.1% on May to July 2012 but
down 0.6% on a year earlier. There were 9.07m economically inactive people aged from 16 to
64, up 60,000 on May to July 2012 but down 249,000 on a year earlier.
Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 1.8% compared with August to October 2011. Regular
pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 1.7% compared with August to October 2011.
5. Economic Backdrop
Recovery is sluggish with a forecasted decline of 0.1% for 2012 and a rise of just 1.2% in 2013 and 2% in 2014.
Chancellor warns of austerity measures into 2018, beyond the original timetable.
Consensus forecasts for GDP are -0.3% for 2012 and +1.1% for 2013.
Looking ahead, unemployment is improving with around 500,000 net jobs created in 2012, business investment is trending
upwards and Services Sector output is showing some growth.
On the plus side: Negative or still in the balance:
Claimant count fell by 3,000 on the month – another reversal. GDP decline of -0.3% over the past year.
Employment rose by 40,000 on the quarter to 29.6m. Growth came Manufacturing output fell by 1.3% in October 2012 and by 1.8%
from full time jobs, with part time employees flat and self employed in on the year.
decline.
Temporary employees fell slightly to stand 97,000 up on the year, still
close to recent Olympics-boosted peak.
CPI Inflation rate stands at 2.7%, unchanged from October, but 0.5%
ahead of September.
Services Sector output shows an annual rise of 1.7% and +1.1% versus
prior Q.
Retail sales volume rose by 0.9% versus prior year but flat versus prior
month.
Job vacancies rose by 8,000 in November, but again with all the growth
from very large or very small companies. Vacancies are now 30,000 or
6.4% up on the year.
6. Job Vacancy Data
Vacancies are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to recruit outside
their business or organisation.
There were 489,000 job vacancies for September to November 2012, up 8,000 from June to
August 2012 and up 30,000 on a year earlier.
There were 1.8 vacancies per 100 employee jobs for September to November 2012,
unchanged from June to August 2012 but up 0.1 on a year earlier.
Thousands Vacancies, seasonally adjusted
500
490
480
470
460
450
440
Source: Vacancy Survey – Office For National Statistics
7. Job Vacancies by Industry
Sept - Nov 2012 with Q on Q change
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-1.9% +13.8% -10.2% +5.6% -1.6% +20.4%
-5.4% +4.4%
+6.3%
0
8. Contingent Worker Numbers (000’s)
Contingent workers are those who say their main job is non-permanent (defined as a fixed term contract,
agency work, seasonal work or casual work).
The number of contingent workers (temporary workers and contractors) fell by 0.5% or 8,000 in the 3 months
ending October 2012, consolidating recent gains but still near an eleven year high. Annual numbers gained
97,000 or 6.3% on prior year.
6.4% of all employees in the UK are currently deemed temporary. Two thirds are female workers.
Contingent Workers
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
Aug-Oct 11 Nov-Jan 12 Feb-Apr 12 May-Jul 12 Aug-Oct 12
9. UK Employee Trends
UK EMPLOYEE TRENDS ALL EMPLOYEES CONTINGENT WORKERS
Change on year Change on year
Change % Change %
(000’s) (000’s)
Managers & senior officials 240 5.2 -3 -3.5
Professional occupations 105 2.7 5 1.9
Associate professional & technical 113 2.6 7 3.5
Admin & secretarial -33 -1.1 4 4
Skilled trades -95 -3.1 9 12.3
Personal services -49 -1.9 9 5
Sales and customer services 81 3.8 22 20.2
Process, plant & machine operatives 8 0.4 20 18.2
Elementary occupations 42 1.2 79 25.6
Managerial/Senior Professionals - a solid rise in the permanent market but a decline in the temporary market.
Professional Occupations - dipped across both markets over the previous quarter but improved year on year.
Associate Professional & Technical - steady increases across both markets.
Office Support - a decline in the permanent market and an increase in the temporary market, perhaps indicating that some of these roles
are being filled on a temporary basis.
Skilled Trades - a decline year on year but an increase over the prior quarter in the permanent market. There has been a significant upturn
in the temporary market.
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives - a small increase in the permanent market and a
sharp decline in the temporary market.
Elementary Occupations - a small annual increase in the permanent market and a large
increase in the temporary market.
10. Sector Analysis
Which sectors are likely to see the greatest demand for agency and permanent staff over
the next 12 months?
The sector scores are based on employers’ hiring expectations over the short and medium term. The scores are calculated from the net increase or decrease, averaged over 3
months. Individual responses are scored proportionate to the amount of expected change and aggregated to give a net value for each Sector.
Industrial and Accounting/Financial were noted as the growth areas for permanent staffing by employers in October 2012. Industrial was the only sector to look forward to
improvement for temporary staffing.
TEMPORARY & CONTRACT STAFFING
Accounting & Medical,
Engineering & Sales & Professional Office
Industrial Technology Financial Hospitality Nursing & Education
Technical Retail Managerial Professionals
Services Social Care
0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12
mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths
Trend 43 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 43 6 6 6 5 43 6 6 6 6 5 5
Nov +95 +70 +55 +15 +135 +90 +20 -10 -5 +10 +45 +15 +35 +5 +30 +10 +20 0 +15 +15
Oct +95 +75 +60 +10 +90 +50 +55 +10 -5 +20 +70 +25 +30 +5 +40 +25 +25 +5 +10 -5
PERMANENT STAFFING
Accounting & Medical,
Engineering & Sales & Professional Office
Industrial Technology Financial Hospitality Nursing & Education
Technical Retail Managerial Professionals
Services Social Care
0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12 0-3 4- 12
mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths mths
Trend 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 43
Nov +240 +210 +200 +210 +320 +305 +165 +115 +85 +75 +180 +150 +125 +105 +140 +165 +145 +155 +100 +90
Oct +215 +185 +240 +230 +245 +220 +170 +125 +90 +70 +160 +130 +100 +100 +165 +155 +160 +160 +80 +90
