Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice - Presentation by Ariella Helfgott. This presentation was given as part of the 'Metrics of Sustainable Diets and Food Systems Symposium, co-organized by Bioversity International and CIHEAM-IAMM, November 4th -5th 2014, Agropolis International, Montpellier Visit 'Metrics of Sustainable Diets and Food Systems' Symposium webpage. http://www.bioversityinternational.org/metrics-sustainable-diets-symposium/

1. Systems Approach to Modelling Food
Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice
?
Ariella Helfgott
Food Systems Research Group
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford

2. Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic
and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)
… is universally applicable
… is more than food production
… is underpinned by food systems

3. Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

4. … all of which contribute to crossing
Planetary Boundaries.

5. Agriculture as a driver of Land-cover Change
‘Extensification’
•• Biodiversity loss
• Soil degradation
• Altered hydrology
• Altered biogeochemical cycling
• GHG emissions
• … all PBs?

6. Species’ threats attributable to agriculture …
“Among the drivers of habitat loss for mammals,
agriculture and pastoralism are the most important,
together affecting 40% of terrestrial mammals”
IUCN, Red List of threatened species, 2010

7. Contribution of capture fisheries to
biodiversity loss

8. Agriculture as a source of GHG emissions
Mt CO2-e, 2010
Worldwatch Institute’s Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org)

9. But Food Systems
involve more than ‘agriculture’ …

10. UK’s food industry “costs”
(post- farmgate)
• 14% of energy consumption
defra, 2006
by UK businesses and 7
million tonnes of carbon
emissions per year
• 10% of all industrial use of the
public water supply
• 10% of the industrial and
commercial waste stream
• 25% of all HGV vehicle
kilometres in the UK

11. Processing Food: water use and effluent
• 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply
• Effluent significantly affects aquatic habitats
• large amounts of organic materials such as proteins,
carbohydrates, and lipids
• high biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or
chemical oxygen demand (COD)
• high N and P concentration
• high suspended oil or grease contents
• high variations in pH
Defra, 2006; Kroyer, 1995; Prasad et al. 2010

12. Packaging Food
• Use of raw materials for packaging
• Real and virtual energy content
• Litter
• Adverse consequences of careless disposal
of packaging, esp. marine biodiversity

13. Packaging Food
• Litter
• Adverse consequences of careless
disposal of packaging, esp. marine
• Use of raw materials for packaging
• Real and virtual energy content
• 7% GHG emissions from UK food
system (Garnett, 2008)

14. Guardian 1 February 2009
Refrigerant
leakage
accounts for
30% of
super-markets’
direct GHG
emissions
(Environment
Investigation
Agency, 2010)
Retailing food

15. GHG emissions across Food Systems
UK USA India
Producing
Processing
Distributing
Consuming
Waste
disposing
Garnett, FCRN, 2009 Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009 Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys & Env, 2010

16. Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
food
Climate
change
GHGs,
albedo
Energy Emissions from
transport and
cold chain
GHGs from
cooking
N cycle Eutrophicn,
GHGs
Effluent NOx from
transport
Waste
P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste
Fresh water
Irrigation Washing,
use
heating, cooling
Cleaning food Cooking,
cleaning
Land use
change
Intensificn,
soil degdn
Paper/card Transport &
retail
infrastructure
Forest to edible
oils plantation
Biodiversity
loss
Deforestation,
soils, fishing
[Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer
choices
Atmos.
aerosols
Dust Shipping Smoke from
cooking
Chemical
pollution
Pesticides Effluent Transport
emissions
Cooking,
cleaning

17. How do Climate Change and drivers of crossing
Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
•Affordability
•Allocation
•Preference
•Nutritional Value
•Social Value
•Food Safety
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
•Distribution
•Exchange

18. Extreme weather affects affordability…
Poor people tend to spend relatively more of
their income on food, therefore suffer more
when food prices go up
Cost of wheat is 10% of cost of loaf of bread
in the US, but 90% cost of chapatti in India

19. … and food storage …

20. … and food distribution …

21. … and aspects of food safety.
• Mycotoxins formed on plant products
in the field or during storage
• Residues of pesticides in plant
products affected by changes in
managing increased pest pressure
• Marine biotoxins in seafood following
production of phycotoxins by harmful
algal blooms
• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during
heat waves.
Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

22. … and food availability ...
• UK normally exports ca. 2.5 Mt wheat / yr
• Wettest 2012 autumn since records began
• Coldest 2013 spring in 50 yr
=> UK expects to import 2.5 Mt in 2013

23. … and hence food price.

24. Consequences of the
2008 Food Price Crisis

25. Agricultural intensification
leads to declines in pollinators …
“… a widespread pattern of loss of pollinator richness and abundance as a
result of agricultural intensification and habitat loss.” [since 1980]
Potts et al., 2010, Trends in Ecol & Evol

26. … and tropospheric O3 pollution reduces yields.
Mills et al, NERC-CEH, 2011

27. Background
So why the need to change things?
1. Planetary Boundary concerns are clear
• climate change
• biodiversity loss
• other PBs
• Complex interactions between the food
system and the environment
2. Food Security a major concern
• ~ 1b hungry
• ~ 2b insufficient nutrients
• > 2.5b overweight or obese

28. Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Excess cals (incl. some
with insufficient nutrs)
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
currently >2.5 billion
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 1 billion
CONSUMERS
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Nutrient Quantity and Price
Local, Regional & Global Production Activities
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price
PRODUCERS
Productivity Diversity & Quality

29. 2025
2000
Looking ahead ...
The biodiversity and other environmental consequences of meeting
this demand with current food systems are dire
The potential health care costs from obesity-related
The economic costs of diagnosed diabetes in
Too much ---- Appropriate ---- -- Too little --
1
2200
the US alone in 2012 is $245 billion
- Too much - ----- Appropriate amount -----
-- Too little --
Billions of people
(indicative; not to scale)
NCDs are massive
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2050
2014
kcal/person/day
consumed
------ Too much ------ ---- Appropriate amount ---- --- Too little ---
----------- Too much ------------ --- Appropriate amount --- ----- Too little -----

30. Resilience: common threads…
• Response of a system to disturbance or
change
• All definitions describe one or more of these
three types of behaviour:
• Absorbing/withstanding
• Recovering
• Adapting beneficially

35. Summary
Resilience is a property of a system that
describes the nature of the response of the
system to a particular disturbance, of a
particular magnitude, from the perspective
of a particular observer over a specified
timescale
We need to know OF WHAT, TO WHAT, FROM
WHOSE PERSPECTIVE, OVER WHAT TIME
FRAME

36. Framing resilience involves specifying…

40. Modelling the food system
• Define system boundaries
• Variables of interest
• Changes and shocks of interest
• Interventions of interest
• Measures of success or improvement
• Timeframe
• These decisions will effect the results and
conclusions drawn from any model
• Many participatory approaches available for
framing and modelling the food system

41. Modelling the Food System
• Different perspectives
– Actors, activities, outcomes
– Social, environmental, economic, political
• Types of models
– Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
– System Dynamics
– Stochastic Models

43. Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Excess cals (incl. some
with insufficient nutrs)
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
currently >2.5 billion
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 1 billion
CONSUMERS
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Nutrient Quantity and Price
Local, Regional & Global Production Activities
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price
PRODUCERS
Productivity Diversity & Quality

44. So what do we do about it?
✓ Adapt to inevitable change
✓ Mitigate further change
=> Do the “doing things” differently …

45. Improve agriculture, livestock, horticulture,
aquaculture, fisheries, …
• More varied crops
• Stress-tolerant
varieties
• Novel food producing
systems
• Improve water mgmt
• Insurance for
producers
• Wider range of food
stuffs

46. … consider insect protein for better land-use …
Range in land use (m2) per kg of edible protein
De Vries and De Boer 2010; Oonincx and De Boer 2012.

47. … consider wholly novel foods …

48. … reduce food losses and waste …
~ 30% worldwide
FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011

49. … and reduce over-consumption.

50. Thank you