Presentation of Celso Manzato for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle" Apresentação de Celso Manzato realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle" Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/ 11 e 12 de novembro de 2009 Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5

1. Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning for Ethanol and
Sugar production in Brazil
Ministry of Agriculture/
EMBRAPA
Ministry of Environment
Ministry Agrarian Development/
Ministry of Energy
Celso Vainer Manzatto
Embrapa Environment
www.cnpma.embrapa.br
Brasília, november 2009

2. Environment Changes and Agroenergy
 Reduction of emissions and
Carbon sequestrations;
 Regulatory frameworks on the
environmental benefits
associated with renewable
energy;
 Sustainability of production
and non-tariff barriers;
 Expansion of sugarcane
production and risk to food
production or to food safety;
 Expansion of the agricultural
frontier. IPCC

3. GUIDELINES
to guide the expansion of production
1. Agricultural Policy
 Indication of areas with agricultural suitability (soil and climate) for the
sugar cane cultivation, without full irrigation;
 Indication of areas with land surface slope less than 12%, allowing
environmentally sound production (mechanical harvest);
2. Environmental Sustainability
 Exclusion of areas with native vegetation (indication of areas currently
under agricultural use);
 Exclusion of areas for tillage in the Amazon, Pantanal (and the Upper
Paraguay River Basin);
3. Food Security
 Decrease in direct competition with areas of food production;

4. Areas without
Environmental Areas with slope
restrictions <12%
Soil Maps Climate Data
Criteria for land Criteria for Climate
evaluation evaluation
Land suitability Climate Potential
Sugar cane climate/ Evaluation of Additional Constrains Validation by
soil potential Current State
Agricultural Use

5. Areas with low climate risk - Without full irrigation:

6. Knowledge
Agricultural
suitability
for crops
palm sugar cane
Soil Mapping
Climate Risk
Culture
• EMDS - Ecosystem
Management
Requirements soy Castor beans
Decision Support
• Netweaver
• ArcGis

7. LANDS UNDER AGRICULTURAL USAGE
• Country Total Areas => 851 Million ha.
• Agricultural suitability lands => 789 Million ha - 65% of total
• Land Use in 2002 => 232 Million ha - 27% of total

8. Area
Mapped Areas with Forest/ Biome/ Park / Indian Zoning Areas
BIOME PROBIO Water Cover Res/ Alt Parag Basin Considered
(M ha) (M ha) % (M( ha) % (M ha) %
AMAZONIA 423,50 382,86 90,51 423,05 100,00 - -
CAATINGA 82,58 52,61 63,72 5,05 5,98 29,96 36,28
CERRADO 204,72 124,92 61,02 57,46 28,07 43,65 21,31
MATA ATLÂNTICA 105,90 30,77 29,05 7,07 6,32 75,14 70,95
PAMPA 17,82 9,15 51,30 0,06 3,51 8,68 48,67
PANTANAL 15,12 13,38 88,46 15,12 100,00 - -
TOTAL 849,18 * 613,68 72,27 508,36 59,86 157,40 18,54**
SOURCE: Adapted from PROBIO, 2006. (*) Area considered in the study. (**) Relative to the area of the country
Areas considered in the zoning: 18,5%

9. BRAZIL: ZAE - SUGARCANE

10. Lands with agricultural suitability for
sugarcane production under diverse
agricultural usage
Potential areas in Brazil for suitability and type of use
Suitability
Brazil Classes Areas suitable for type of land use (ha)
Ap Ag Ac Ap + Ag Ap + Ag + Ac
11.302.342,95 600.766,55 7.360.310,26 11.903.109,50 19.263.419,76
High (H)
22.863.866,09 2.015.247,91 16.344.644,29 24.879.114,00 41.223.758,29
Medium (M)
3.041.122,07 483.326,14 731.076,97 3.524.448,21 4.255.525,18
Low (L)
34.166.209,05 2.616.014,46 23.704.954,55 36.782.223,51 60.487.178,05
H+M
37.207.331,12 3.099.340,60 24.436.031,52 40.306.671,72 64.742.703,23
Total
Areas considered suitable: 7,6 %

11. Summary: ZAE - SUGARCANE
Territory or Area Estimate Millions Percentage in Relation
(ha) to the National Territory
Brazilian territory (IBGE) 851,5 100,00%
Lands with agricultural suitability 553,5 65,00%
Lands in use 2002 (Probio Estimate) 235,5 27,70%
Lands with environmental restrictions (including 694,1 81,50%
the Amazon biome, Pantanal and Paraguay River
Basin)
Lands considered to the zoning without contrains 157,4 18,50%
Lands with agricultural suitability for sugarcane 64,7 7,6%
tillage under diverse agricultural usage
Lands suitable for tillage / expansion used for 34,2 4,02%
pasture (high and medium suitability)
Land with sugarcane production - 20081 7,1 0,90%
Expansion foreseen until 2017 for the sugarcane 7,5 0,91%
production²
1 – Source Conab, 2009.
2 – Adapted from the estimates of Energetic Research Enterprise – EPE, 2008

13. Public Policy Proposal
Union implements two initiatives:
1) AEZ binds credit and establishes guidelines for states and
municipalities
• Decree establishing the AEZ;
• Ordinance of the MAPA and MMA;
• Vote of the CMN;
2) AEZ – Policy that guides the sugarcane production expansion
• Bill with restrictions to the licensing of new ethanol/sugar plants
and new tasks to the MAPA.

14. Public Policy Proposal
1) Decree establishing the AEZ and decree of MAPA and MMA
• Binds the public and private credit
• Sugarcane production: land suitability, limits the credit for areas with environmental
constrains;
• Investment: expansion of ethanol plants, new ethanol plants, co-generation.
2) Guidance for licensing in UF.
3) Bill
• Environmental constrains
• Expansion of planting and installation of ethanol/sugar plants in the Amazon and
Pantanal Biome and Upper Paraguay River Basin
• Suppression throughout the national territory of native vegetation to expand the planting
of sugar cane for ethanol/sugar productions
• Constrains on the replacement of food crops
• MAPA authorizes the establishment or expansion of ethanol plants.
• Install or expand when there is injury or threat to food production or food security
will not be allowed.

15. BILL – SCOPE OF APPLICATION
 Restrictive measures provided by the Bill, reach only
the expansion of sugar cane for the production of
sugar and alcohol
 Areas currently planted with sugar cane are not
affected
 Expansion of the area of sugar cane for the
production of “cachaça”, brown sugar, animal feed,
and other products than sugar and alcohol are not
included in the constrains
 Suppression in all the national territory of native
vegetation to expand the planting of sugar cane,
even with the planting of crops after deforestation.

17. AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal
• Exclusion of areas with native vegetation
With the validity of the act, it is prohibited the native vegetation suppression for the
sugarcane culture expansion in all Brazilian territory. Areas with the predomination of
native original vegetation will be protected, being part of restricted areas, where
sugarcane cannot be cultivated.
• Exclusion of areas for the cultivation at the biomes Amazônia, Pantanal and
at the High Paraguay Basin
The ZAE Cana prohibits the sugarcane production expansion at the biomes Amazônia,
Pantanal and at the High Paraguay Basin. To protect the environment, to conserve the
biodiversity and to use all the natural resources in a rational manner, new ethanol
production units will not be able to be installed in these areas.
• Indication of areas with agricultural potential without full irrigation
The ZAE Cana has considered the climate, soil conditions and varieties of sugarcane
to select areas where the sugarcane production uses the least quantity of water
possible.

18. AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal
• Indication of areas with slope inferior to 12%
Areas with surface slope up to 12% allow the use of machines at the tilling. This way it is
guaranteed an adequate environmental production expansion, avoiding new clearances
of ground by fire and the emission of CO2. With the mechanical harvesting the expansion
will happen without sugarcane manual cut.
• Respect to the safe nourishing
The Bill foresees that the Ministry of Agriculture guides the sugarcane production
expansion. This will avoid any risk to food production or for the safe nourishing.
(
• Prioritize degraded or pasture areas
The ZAE Cana is an important instrument to guide public policies and credit to prioritize
the sugarcane expansion to areas already used for pasture. More than 34 million
hectares of land, which today are underused or occupied by cattle breeding and
degraded pasture, are identified at the ZAE as fit for sugarcane production. The increase
in the cattle breeding productivity in Brazil (relation of bovine per hectare), today
considered low, can provide new spaces for sugarcane production.

19. Elimination of Burning
Proposal
YEAR AREA MECANIZATION
2012 20% of harvest area
2014 40% of harvest area
2017 100% of harvest area
Schedule similar to the one established by law in SP
These measures will allow the reduction of greenhouse gases effects in a
measurement that corresponds to the emission of 6 million tons of CO2
equivalent in relation to the year of 2008.

21. Prioritization of Land for Expansion:
Spontaneous Expansion
 414 ethanol/sugar plants in
operation, 47 power plants being
implanted and 23 under study;
 Ethanol Plants in production and
deployment meet demand by 2010;
 Expansion Planning with
reflections from 2010;

22. Ethanol Plants: Spontaneous Expansion
Ethanol Plants:
 Planning
 Deployment
 Operating

23. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure
 South Central Region:
currently single
integrated multimodal
system of highways,
railroads, pipelines and
terminals for the sale of
ethanol.
FONTE: EPE, 2008

24. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure
 Infrastructure outlets for
export / domestic supply more
concentrated in the Center-
South States;
 Spontaneous expansion of
ethanol plants attached to the
main location of existing
infrastructure / projected (SP,
MS, PR, GO, MG, MT);
 Possibility to export the
Project Northeast: future
expansion (MA, PI, TO);
 For other regions of the
country, the possibility of
expansion in order to regional
suplement.
FONTE: EPE, 2008

25. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure
 Possibility to export the
Project Northeast: future
expansion (MA, PI, TO);
 Integrating North-South
Railway and Carajás to the
Port of Itaqui;
 Asia Market Access through
the Panama Canal;
 For other regions of the
country, the possibility of
expansion in order to
regional supplement.

26. Prioritization of Land for Expansion:
SOURCE: EPE, 2008
Projections of Demand for Ethanol

27. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Projections of
Demand for Ethanol and Sugar
YEAR Producti Sugar Cane Cultivated Planted Planted
on of Productio Productio area (M area area
Alcohol n (M ton) n (M ton) ha) alcohol sugar
(B (2) (M ha) (M ha)  Projected demand of
Liters)
(1)
63.91 billion liters of
2008 25,6 31,8 553 7,9 4,2 3,8 ethanol by 2017;
2009 29,2 33,2 609 8,7 4,7 3,9
 7.5 million hectares of
2010 33,5 34,6 677 9,6 5,5 4,1
additional land are
necessary to achieve the
2011 37,6 36,0 734 10,3 6,1 4,2
future demands of
2012 42,3 37,4 800 11,2 6,8 4,4
ethanol and sugar until
2013 47,3 38,8 871 12,1 7,6 4,5
2017;
2014 51,5 40,1 929 12,8 8,2 4,6
2015 55,7 41,5 985 13,5 8,8 4,8
2016 59,8 42,9 1.029 14,1 9,2 4,8
2017 63,9 44,3 1.075 14,6 9,7 4,9
Source : Adapted from EPE, 2008. Estimates of demand: (1) EPE, (2) MAPA.

28. Thank you!
Embrapa Environment
cmanzatto@cnpma.embrapa.br
www.cnpma.embrapa.br