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© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Covid-19
Playbook for
Financial Services
May, 2020
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
The novel coronavirus, COVID-19 has turned into a global crisis,
evolving at an unprecedented speed and scale. As governments
take immediate actions to cope with the outbreak, businesses are
rapidly adapting to the changing needs of people, consumers and
suppliers while also trying to overcome the financial and
operational challenges.
The outbreak has severe impacts on consumer behaviour as well
as the world economy. GDP is taking a currently having a serious
beating. The size of the impact in different parts of the world will
depend mainly on how long the present situation lasts.
As the pandemic continues, more and more industries are feeling
the strain. The financial industry is certainly one of them. Whilst,
the current situation is challenging for the industry, if well-
handled it can also bring opportunities for innovation and long-
term customer loyalty.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Now, more than ever, financial industry must focus on areas that
can thrive in a post-COVID-19 world. The financial industry can
open up opportunities by taking some critical key actions during
this crisis.
This report aims to give an overview of the shifting landscape
across many industries but mainly focuses on the implications of
COVID-19 on financial industry, and how banks can enhance their
capabilities to survive during these rough times.
Foreword
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Executive Summary
• The novel coronavirus outbreak, which originated in China, continues to expand rapidly affecting approximately 3.6 million people
globally. The infection has caused more than 245k deaths in the last 5 months with the USA having the highest death ratio.
• The Covid-19 health crisis will continue to have a severe economic impact across the world in 2020. According to IMF, the global
economy is projected to contract by 3% in 2020 with a “partial recovery” in 2021. The U.S. economy shrank at a 4.8% annual rate in the
first three months of the year — the first quarterly contraction since 2014 and the largest since the Great Recession.
• Due to the current crisis, reduced economic activity and consumer demand has a severe impact on certain industries - mainly on
airlines, tourism, entertainment & sports, food services, oil & gas, transportation and retail.
• While the banking system is better prepared to absorb the impact of crisis with a higher capital ratio compared to 2007, the large
declines in bank equity prices since mid-January suggest that investors are concerned about bank profitability and resilience, and
banks have significant exposures due to existing loan commitments and lending to commercial real estate debt.
• According to the Retail Banking Radar 2020, revenue for retail banks will fall by an average of 20% by the end of 2020 resulting from
mixed impact of payment holidays on credit cards and loans, interest-free offers, low base interest rates and reduced revenue from
management fees.
• We have identified 7 critical areas in which banks and other financial services players should take action over the course of Covid-19
crisis: Employee safety & business continuity, Proactive & personal communication, Digital adoption, Financial support & guidance,
Tools for social distancing, Banking for senior citizens, SMB programs and support
• While most banks are taking short-term precautions to deal with COVID-19 related crisis, business models and customer behaviors
continue shifting and create a new "normal" for banks and its customers. To survive the current crisis and thrive in a new world, banks
need to invest in digital and key critical capabilities now more than ever.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Global
Overview
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda | Global Overview
• Covid-19 Around the Globe
• Economic Impact of Covid-19
• Impact on Financial Services
The impact of
Covid-19:
Africa
Total cases > 42,500
Total deaths > 26,800
Europe
Total cases >1,200,000
Total deaths > 118,000
South America
Total cases > 200,000
Total deaths > 10,000
North America
Total cases > 1,260,000
Total deaths > 73,800
China
Total cases > 82,800
Total deaths > 4,600
Oceania
Total cases > 8,200
Total deaths > 100
Nordic countries
Total cases > 46,700
Total deaths >3500
Asia (w/o China)
Total cases >163,300
Total deaths >4,600
Middle East
Total cases > 317,900
Total deaths > 10,700
The global
outbreak
map
Countries with more than 10,000
reported cases
New York City region is now the
epicenter of the coronavirus w/ more
than 310.000 cases higher than any other
single country.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Source: World Health Organization (WHO) Database
*As of May 3rd
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
The Covid-19 health crisis will continue to have a severe economic
impact across all regions in 2020
2.9
-3.0
5.8
2019 20212020
World
Growth Projections
Real GDP Growth, %
change
2.3
-5.9
4.7
0.1
-5.2
3.4
1.2
-7.5
4.7
1.2
-2.8
4.0
5.5
1.0
8.5
3.1
-1.6
4.1
United States
Euro Area
Emerging &
Developing Asia
Middle East &
Central Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Latin America &
The Caribbean
2019 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2020
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-5.0
-7.0
-2.0
-6.0
-4.0
-3.0
-1.0
0.0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Alternative scenarios estimate a minimum -3% deviation in global real
GDP growth in 2020 as well as significant decrease in commodity and oil
prices
World Real GDP
(% deviation from baseline)
Longer outbreak in 2020
New outbreak in 2021
Longer outbreak in 2020
plus new outbreak in
2021
Alternative Scenarios in
the Fight Against Covid-19
Real Oil Price
(% deviation from baseline)
Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, G-20 Simulations , April 2020
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
EUUSA JPN GBR KOR SWE CAN
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
MEXPOLCHN BRATURIND RUS
While US dollar has been gaining strength, most countries has been
impacted by the changes in exchange rates
Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes,
September 2019-April 2020 (%)
Latest versus December 31, 2019
December 2019 versus September 2019
Advanced Economies Emerging Market Economies
Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, G-20 Simulations , April 2020
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
The current crisis unfolding globally changes consumer behaviors…
How consumer behavior is changing globally
Stockpiling food & medical supplies Shift from stores to e-commerce Increased need for staying connected
• Grocery sales through all channels jumped
nearly 26% in March, the highest rate in at least
25 years.
• Grocery sales in the UK are now at an all-time
high in the 4 weeks ending March 22 - $13.24
billion was spent at supermarkets across the
country which is 20% more than the previous
period.
• In Italy and France, the increase in the sales of
medical supplies outpace even food products.
(286% and 600% increase respectively
compared to previous month.)
• Sales for health and personal care merchants
grew 5.5% year over year in March
• The German discounters Aldi and Lidl’s sales
has risen by 11% and 18% respectively during
the past 12 weeks.
• Egg sales increased 44% for the week ending
on March 14 compared with a year ago due to
stockpiling.
• Most of the supermarkets limit the number of
the same product, shoppers can buy in a single
transaction.
• As consumers stay home during the crisis, e-
commerce sales in general are in surge, but
grocery sales are where the biggest long-term
impact could occur.
• In the US, e-commerce spending is up more than
40% year-over-year on March 13 through March
24.
• In Italy, e-commerce transactions have risen 81%
since the end of February.
• Downloads of Instacart and Walmart’s grocery
app increased 218% and 160% respectively
compared with a year prior
• Amazon hired 100,000 people to meet with
increasing demand. Now it's hiring another
75,000.
• Online grocer Ocado has acquired 133,000 new
shoppers boosting its sales by 13 percent.
• 41% of online grocery users are buying groceries
online for the first time.
• In the US, online home furnishing sales stay still
high with the rise of remote working, while
online transactions in fashion and luxury remain
above the same period last year.
Increasing internet traffic:
• Internet traffic is up 18 % in the US in the first 3
months of this year
• Vodafone is experiencing a 30% rise in internet
traffic across its UK fixed-line and mobile
networks
Rising demand for news, content and mobile games
• Americans’ TV viewing jumped nearly 60% during
past crisis
• Viewing of cable news networks increased 73%
vs. the same week in 2019
• Disney+ is posting impressive growth doubling its
subscriber base since the start of 2020 while
Netflix attracting 16 million new paying
subscribers to its service
• In total, more than 13 billion games has been
downloaded by mobile users during the first 3
months of this year
Need for Online Conferencing and Messaging
• Zoom has surpasses 300 million daily meeting
participants – a huge jump from the 10 million
back in December
• Whatsapp has enjoyed a 40% increase in usage
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
…and has been impacting certain industries drastically
Airlines
Most Impacted Industries from Covid-19 Crisis
The aviation industry
deals with the most
unprecedented
occurrence it has ever
faced.
IATA* projected that the
U.S. and Canadian airline
industry could lose as
much as $21.1 billion in
revenue.
Airlines all around the
world have been
experiencing a serious
liquidity crisis. 75 percent
of them are not having
enough to cover more
than three months of
fixed costs.
Tourism
The tourism industry
accounts for 10% of the
world’s GDP and jobs.
The coronavirus
epidemic is putting up to
50 million jobs in the
global travel and tourism
sector at risk.
Once the outbreak is
under control, it could
take 10 months for the
tourism sector to return
back to normal levels.
Entertainment
& Sports
Film, TV and music
industries have been
hugely impacted as most
of the productions are
halted and events are
cancelled.
The postponement or
suspension of sports
leagues have created a
huge vacuum for the
wide ecosystem that has
cropped up around them.
NBA is expected to lose
$350 million-$450 million
from ticket sales alone.
Food
services &
delivery
Delivery companies have
responded to the
evolving situation with
new hygiene
regulations to maintain
the continued use of the
platforms.
Logistics have been a
growing challenge with
regards to staffing and
managing real-time
inventory, besides wait
times for grocery
delivery continue to
increase, and workers
have voiced concern
over their own safety.
Oil & Gas
The price of crude oil has
fallen significantly hitting
18-year low due to the
cut backs in production
and huge decrease in all
means of transport.
The price war between
Saudi Arabia and Russia
has also affected the
down streaming of the
industry.
Transportation
Public transportation has
almost come to a halt.
The usage of public
transport systems
decreased more than
80% in European and US
cities since Jan. 15.
Safety is a top priority for
everyone still working in,
and using, public
transport. Until now,
more than 20 percent of
UK public transport staff
are either sick or self-
isolated.
Retail
UK retail industry is
forecasted to see a loss
of £12.6bn in 2020 and
with stores accounting
for 75% of sales for most
retailers, a massive
earning per share
declines are expected in
the USA.
The U.S. online grocery
sales for all of March
were up 233% compared
with August 2019.
Though there is an
increased demand in
online grocery healthy &
personal care products,
fashion and luxury-goods
sales are in downturn.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Compared to 2007, banks are better prepared to absorb the losses with a
higher capital. However, their equity prices have been decreasing since
mid-January suggesting that investors are concerned about profitability.
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
CHN
BRA
TUR
JPN
ITA
SGP
USA
SWE
RUS
POL
DEU
GBR
BEL ESP FRA
NDL
IRL
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
GBR CHNIRL TURHKGSWE NOR NLD POLDEU BEL ESPFRA SGP JPN ITA BRA USA RUS
Banking System Tier 1 Capital Ratios (%)
2007 2019
At least 1,000 cases of Covid-19 per million of population
Less than 1,000 cases of Covid-19 per million of population
Change in Bank Equity Prices
(% Change since January 17)
Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
60
20
40
80
100
DEUJPNUSA GBR FRA CAN ITA
24,3
14,2
North America 53,9 14,3 6,6
6,36,769,4
70,1
Europe
10,0Asia Pacific 19,2
100%Commercial banks
CMBS
Covered bonds Nonbank financial institutions
Bad banks
Property company bonds
Loan Commitments: Sample of Banks, End-2019 Commercial Real Estate Debt Holding, 2018
(% of Total)
Percentofrisk-weightedassets
TrillionsofUSdollars
Percent of risk-weighted assets
Trillions of US dollars
Banks have significant exposures due to existing loan commitments and
lending to commercial real estate debt
Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
According to the Retail Banking Radar 2020, revenue for retail banks will
fall by an average of 20% in 2020
Source: AT Kearney, The Retail Banking Radar 2020
20%Decline in retail banking
revenues
1 in 8Banks will face losses this
financial year
~60%
Profitability per customer will
be reduced by
According to the Retail Banking Radar published by AT Kearney, the analysis has
found that revenue for retail banks will fall by an average of 20% over the course
of 2020 and that profitability per customer will reduce by approximately 60%.
While the base scenario estimates 20 percent decrease, it is estimated that
revenues could drop by 35 to 40 percent, depending on the starting point and
revenues mix between different products, and impacts of:
• Payment holidays on credit cards, loans and other products
• Interest-free offers and overdrafts
• Low base interest rates
• Reduced economic activity
• Reduced revenue from management fees of financial assets under
management
The Retail Banking Radar tracks 92 retail banks in 22 European markets,
compromised of 50 banks in Western Europe and 42 banks in Eastern Europe.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda | Covid-19 Playbook
• Global Case Studies
• Key Initiatives
• Recommendations
Covid-19
Playbook
How banks should
face the crisis:
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
We have identified 7 critical areas in which banks and other financial
services players should take action over the course of Covid-19 crisis
Employee Safety
& Business
Continuity
Covid-19
Playbook Proactive &
Personal
Communication
Digital Adoption
(even for non-
digitals)
Financial Support
& Guidance
Tools for Social
Distancing
Banking for
Senior Citizens
SMB Programs &
Support
Initiatives
powered by digital
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Employee Safety &
Business Continuity
To provide their services as usual, banks need to
minimize disruption caused by the pandemic and
take actions regarding to business continuity.
Global Case Studies
Bank of America has announced that they won’t be doing any
layoffs or job reduction in 2020. Also, they claimed that they
hired more than 2000 new employees in March alone and
raised their US minimum hourly wage to $20.
Chase has temporarily closed about 20% of its branches.
Chase customers are able to use the locator to check if their
branch has been closed.
ING Bank has announced that around 75% of its total workforce
is working from home and they are working on increasing that
number.
ING’s global Senior Crisis Management team in Amsterdam
constantly monitors the operations of the businesses in over 40
countries through daily updates from local teams on spread of
the virus in countries, the percentage of staff working from
home and the measures they are taking to safeguard their
employees and ensure business continuity.
TD Bank in Canada is to shift most of its 9,500 call center
employees to work from home. The bank is moving about 350
Canadian and 150 U.S. workers a day into remote capability
and should complete the transition by the end of April 2020.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Initiatives
powered by digital
Employee Safety &
Business Continuity
Action Plan
• Establish a central task force which
works with each function to identify
precautionary actions, tracks daily
implementation and results
• Ensure employee safety by taking
actions such as:
• Restricting travel
• Emphasizing workplace hygiene
and ensuring cleanliness of all
branches and customer
interaction locations
• Offering alternative ways of
working / remote working options
• Identify functions which cannot easily
executed remotely due to
compliance and technology
requirements and segregate team
members as a back up plan
Monitor closely the demand for
customer service and reduce
operations if possible or take actions
to redirect customers to use online
channels
• Modify existing policies, controls and
practices according to the new
“normal”
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Proactive & Personal
Communication
Now more than ever, constant communication plays a
crucial role to engage with customers, and banks
should be proactive in providing critical information
to their customers.
Global Case Studies
Deutsche Bank has been publishing daily newsletter called
“Corona Crisis Daily” which shows the latest global new case
and mortality numbers alongside the rate of growth in each
of the last five days.
It also highlights the main news on the virus over the last day,
the key company statements seen regarding the impact of
the outbreak as well as the latest policy announcements
combatting it.
Besides the customer care specialists supporting its
customers 24 hours, 7 days a week, ING Bank Australia has
created a help center which includes detailed FAQ regarding
to general and product specific enquiries.
CaixaBank encourages senior citizens to use online channels
and avoid any non-essential travel by identifying with senior
customers who regularly receive their pension in cash and
proactively contacting through call center.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Action Plan
• Reach out to the customers to
understand and solve their problems -
not for marketing purposes
Create a digital hub dedicated to COVID-
19 to share all related updates such as
financial support packages and
resources to guide them, i.e. apply for
loan extension
Provide real-time updates on changing
service availability (such as branch
working hours) through push
notifications and other engagement
channels
• Inform about financial benefits and
flexibilities
Personalize communication through 1:1
marketing at scale by using digital
analytics and engagement tools
Proactive & Personal
Communication
Initiatives
powered by digital
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Digital Adoption
(even for non-digitals)
To keep their customers out of branches for their
health and safety, banks should encourage the use of
digital channels whenever possible. By introducing
functionalities enabling customers to perform key
transactions online, they can limit face-to-face
support needed.
Citi enables its users by making it easier for cardholders to
dispute pending charges through mobile app. Citi customers
with travel and event cancellations can track their pending
charges.
Ant Financial is planning to open up Alipay to third parties
enabling millions of service providers to offer “contactless”
services across China, including grocery deliveries, legal and
medical advice, logistics and public services. Within a week,
more than 1200 developers responded and created 181 mini
programs.
Hang Seng Bank has introduced a new chat contact for
WhatsApp users in Hong Kong, providing a direct connection
to its retail virtual assistant Haro. With ability to process
natural language, Haro shares the most up-to-date
information and sends regular foreign exchange or market
outlook updates to customers.
Global Case Studies
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Action Plan
• Identify customers that are enrolled into
mobile and internet banking channels
and share content to guide them to
adapt these channels
Provide an effective tutorial for digital
onboarding for the first time users
• Identify non-digital customers (mostly
elder people which may have difficulty to
adapt) and reach out through call center
or home visits
• Identify customers visiting call center
and branches to perform the transactions
which can be done through digital
channels and redirect them
Help merchants to open their digital
business by providing merchant
enrollment for payment services online
Digital Adoption
(even for non-digitals)
Initiatives
powered by digital
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Financial Support &
Guidance
Most banks have already started to waive loan
payments, interest charges and fees to relieve their
customers facing financial stress. Besides providing
financial support, they also guide individuals and
businesses in terms of their financial queries.
In addition to direct helplines for the ones that are in
need most, they provide or direct customers to online
tools and platforms to help them create budgets,
understand pros and cons of financial options.
Global Case Studies
Bank of America has been the first major lender to get its web
portal for the Paycheck Protection Program up and running to
enable customers’ online application.
In addition to €35 million donation, BBVA launched the
campaign “Your contribution is worth double” among its
employees. The bank will contribute another euro for every
euro donated by an employee.
Revolut adds in-app donation button for The Trussel Trust
Foodbank, the UK’s largest food bank network, for its
customers in the UK to help those most in need.
Starling offers arranged overdraft interest holidays to personal
account holders who are struggling financially as a result of the
outbreak. Starling will also waive all interest charges during 3-
month interest holiday and the interest will not be added on at the
end of the holiday period.
Finturi, a new player in invoive financing, has recently received
approval for launch of its invoice finance platform in the
Netherlands. Through the platform, Finturi aims to provide
solutions for SMBs' working capital problem.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Action Plan
• Skip payments for mortgages and loans
without penalty
• Offer a dedicated helpline to provide
financial advice
• Support savings customers with penalty
free access to fixed rate products
• Suspense fees to merchants and
individuals
• Extend credit card limits
Provide solutions for small and medium-
sized businesses to survive their
operations during the crisis
Financial Support &
Guidance
Initiatives
powered by digital
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Tools for Social
Distancing
Banks should provide and encourage services which
limit physical interaction and help their customers to
sustain social distancing.
With the functionalities such as contactless payment,
QR-based solutions that minimize contact, banks can
help their customers to keep their distance and less
contact with contaminated surfaces.
Global Case Studies
Safaricom, the provider of popular M-Pesa mobile money
service, is waiving fees in an effort to encourage people to use
digital platforms instead of cash during the pandemic.
China aims to launch the world’s first official digital currency.
China’s digital currency plans are gathering pace with trials
taking place across four cities and reports emerging that well-
known players such as Starbucks and McDonald’s are se to
take part in testing. The People’s Bank of China stresses that
the currency is still at the test phase.
OCBC in Singapore introduces Google Pay’s peer-to-peer (P2P)
funds transfer option to fuel cashless society. It will allow
OCBC customers to pay directly from their bank accounts to
anyone registered to PayNow using the Google Pay app. The
Google Pay P2P service has a daily transfer limit of $1,000.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Action Plan
• Discourage the use of cash and checks
by providing and promoting contactless
(card or wallet based) payments
Make money withdrawals without touch
by enabling NFC or QR-based solutions
Introduce P2P payments to ease money
transfer among people and between
customers and small businesses
Minimize branch visits through digital
functionalities such as depositing checks
using mobile app
Tools for Social
Distancing
Initiatives
powered by digital
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Banking for Senior
Citizens
Global Case Studies
Banco Santander has launched a new program "Here and Now"
in Portugal, targeting its 145,000 customers over 65 to help them
with their banking related needs, proactively solve their
problems and assist them to adapt and use digital channels.
Nationwide is to open 100 branches at 8am, rather than 9am,
to provide dedicated services to elderly and vulnerable
customers with underlying health conditions to self-isolate
and reduce social contact.
Starling has introduced a connected second debit card to existing
bank account to support customers in self-isolation. The card is
ideally designed to be provided to trusted people who may be
shopping for food or other essential items on behalf of the bank
customer. Card features include payment restrictions for use in
physical shops only.
Lloyds Banking Group is to equip up to 2000 customers over
the age of 70 with free tablet devices and set up a dedicated
phone line to provide training and support to help vulnerable
people access online banking.
With more customers staying in, there has been
significant growth in digital wealth and uptake of
digital banking products and services.
Especially among senior citizens, the demand and
adoption of digital channels has been increasing with
the help of special programs.
Digital
Adoption in
Singapore
(in banking)
20%
YoY increase in
60 to 80-year-
old segment
7%
YoY increase
in other
segments
vs
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Action Plan
• Identify active customers who are over a
certain age at a high-risk group and have
been affected by coronavirus-related
precautions
• Better understand their needs and pain
points by creating their personas and
journeys which has been affected by
coronavirus crisis
• Analyze digital usage and adoption of
mobile and internet banking platforms
• Launch programs to increase their
adoption and us of digital channels as
well as services and products enabling
them to keep their social distance
• Proactively communicate to identify
difficulties they face during the crisis and
concerns
• Provide dedicated support through call
center, branches and other customer
interaction points
Banking for Senior
Citizens
Initiatives
powered by digital
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
SMB Programs &
Support
Global Case Studies
DBS has engaged with startups and enabled its payment platform
to provide F&B establishments with the ability to set up an online
food ordering site in just 3 business days. DBS absorbs the set-up
costs and waives fees for the first six months.
NatWest is waiving monthly hire fees for POS terminals from its
payment product Tyl until the end of 2020. Tyl aims to ensure
businesses who sign up for its service that have received terminals
and are ready to accept payments within 24 hours.
Wirecard introduced a new initiative, an assistance package for
merchants including discounted or free use of digital payment
solutions and a rapid product integration to enable them create
their own online shops, send payment links and receive payments.
iZettle and logistics platform Stuart have announced a partnership
to offer SMEs remote payment and delivery services during the
lockdown. SMEs can now accept customer orders over the phone,
on social media or online, and then use Stuart’s platform to
arrange for delivery.
iZettle then completes the sales by allowing users to invoice
customers remotely using its online payment portal, Payment
Links, which allows merchants to create a one-time link to send to
their customers.
Why is it important to support small businesses during
the crisis?
• There are more than 30 million small businesses in
the US, and 25 million SMEs in Europe.
• In the US, small businesses accounted for over half of
net job creation in 2014.
• Most small businesses lack the cash reserves to
weather a month-long interruption.
• 176 thousand businesses marked closed on Yelp by
April 19th.
• 48 million small business jobs are at risk from a small
business collapse.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Action Plan
• Assess the vulnerability of your existing
merchant segment in the face of
coronavirus crisis and identify needs to
survive their business
• Offer assistance packages including
financial benefits such as free use of
solutions or products or waiving the fee
for a certain period of time
Review existing processes and identify
the processes which need face-to-face
interaction in branches and digitalize the
processes based on criticality
Partner with other solution providers such
as payment solution providers, delivery
service providers, e-commerce solution
providers to enable merchants to move
their businesses and accept payments
online
Increase the easiness to open a merchant
account with your bank by adopting an
online application process
SMB Programs &
Support
Initiatives
powered by digital
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda | Digital Roadmap
• Critical Consideration Areas for Digital
Investments
• Priorities in Digital Banking
• Critical Capabilities for Post-crisis
market
Digital
Roadmap
How to invest in
digital capabilities:
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Planning for Digital Banking Roadmap
As customers need banks to provide their
services as usual during the Covid-19 crisis,
banks should invest more into their mobile and
internet banking channels not only for 7/24
services, but also support their customers in
terms of health and social distancing.
Covid-19 Checklist for Digital Banking Investments
Increase customer adoption and usage of digital channels
Make services available 7/24 for customers
Help bank to optimize demand for call center and branches
Enable customers to reach financial support and advice
Create value for the personas / segments that are most affected by Covid-19 crisis
Help customers to keep their social distance and preserve their health in public places
Help customers better engage with the bank and increase satisfaction
Enables customers to complete their transactions fast

© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Which functionalities
should banks
prioritize in their
digital platforms
during Covid-19 crisis?
Prelogin
Login
Dashboard
Accounts Transfer Money
Pay Bill
P2P
Payment
Mortgages & Loans
Checks
Investments
Debit / Credit Cards
Engage
Become a New
Customer
Locate ATMs &
Branches
Book Appointment
View Market &
Product Information
Easy Application
Quick Access:
Payment & Money
Withdrawal
Sign Up
for First Time User
Login with Passcode OTP Authentication Login with Biometrics Forgot Passcode
Chatbot Onboarding Tutorial Dashboard Quick Access
Checking
Account
Savings
Account
Open /
Close
Account
View /
Send
Statements
Make /
Schedule
Manage
Beneficiaries
Direct
Debit
Card
Controls
Limits
Apply /
Activate
Lock /
Unlock
Lost /
Stolen
Pay /
Postpone
Disputes
RewardsBuy/Sell
FX
Trade
Order Deposit
Get a
quote
Apply
ViewDelay
Alert Rules
Push
Notification
Message
Center
Make /
Schedule
Manage
Payees
Recurring
Payments
Send
Money
Request
Money
Split Bill
Support
Direct
Access
Account
Info &
Security
Personal
Info
Update
Preferences
PFM
View
Spending
Cash to
ATM
Wallets
Tax
Payments
QR/NFC
Enabled
View
Virtual
Cards
Set Budget
Set Saving
Goal
Track
Progress
In-app
Message
Critical Must-Have
Functionalities
Functionalities with Higher
Importance due to Covid-
19 Pandemic
Nice to Have or Strategic
Functionalities for Longer
Term Investment
User functionalities
in terms of critically:
Personaliza
tion
Commencis Digital Banking Framework
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Critical Must-Have Functionalities
Functionalities with Higher Importance
due to Covid-19 Pandemic
Nice to Have or Strategic Functionalities for
Longer Term Investment
• Signup and login for mobile / internet banking
• Perform all user account related transactions
• Manage checking & savings accounts
• View and manage debit and credit card
• Report a lost / stolen card
• Become a new customer view videoconference or
online ID verification
• Tutorial for first time users guiding through app
• Update personal information online
• Apply a merchant dispute and track online
• Lock / Unlock cards temporarily
• Chatbot or personal assistant
• Simpler login with biometrics or facial recognition
• Get a quote for mortgage or loan application
• Apply for a loan or mortgage online
• View mortgage or loan details and make payment
• Deposit checks online
• Request for payment delay or restructuring in loan or
mortgage payment
• Set saving goals and track spending with Personal
Finance Management features
• Increase credit card limit
• Apply and activate credit card online
• Open a trade account
• Make trade (buy/ sell) bonds, stocks and other
financial instruments
• Make money transfers online
• Pay bills
• Pay taxes
• Set recurring payments
• QR or NFC based mobile payment
• Wallet integration
• Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Payment (send/request money)
• QR or NFC based money withdrawal from ATM
• Book an appointment for branches
• Order checks online
• Create virtual card for online transactions
• Split bill
• Set and send alerts
• Send informative messages & notifications
• Locate ATMs & Branches with working hours
• Send personalized messages & notifications
• Message center for direct communication with
customer service
• View and share market information
• Set communication preferences
Review your digital banking roadmap for Covid-19
Benefit
Priority
Digital
Adoption
Financial
Support &
Advice
Social
Distancing
Communication
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
The Post-crisis World: How to prepare for it
While most banks are taking short-
term precautions to deal with
COVID-19 related crisis, business
models and customer behaviors
continue shifting and creating a new
"normal" for banks and its
customers.
Banks need to extend beyond and
plan across different time horizons
to adapt for this new "normal" that
has been redefining at the moment.
Key Capabilities for Post-Crisis Survival
Customer First:
Human-centered
Design
Agile and Continuous
Delivery: Build a MVP
and iterate from there
Data & Analytics:
Invest for Maximum
Value
With the crisis, a certain group of
banking customers will carry a
heavier burden and have challenges
to perform their routine financial
transactions.
Banks should reimagine their target
personas and how they are affected
by coronavirus crisis to develop new
services and reshape existing ones.
Banks need to shorten time to
market for new services to fulfill
consumer needs within the shortest
time.
To fasten time to market, banks
should adopt an agile and iterative
approach to product development
and software delivery. With faster
cycle times, digital teams can
continuously improve their apps
while showing flexibility to adapt
urgent market needs.
To increase effectiveness of
communication, banks need to
excel their skills to realize 1:1
marketing at scale by using big data
and analytics capabilities.
Using behavioral data from digital
channels, banks can generate deep
user insights for product
development and innovation while
creating personalized experiences.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Customer First:
Human-centered Design
• Define new personas under new
circumstances considering their current
needs and expectations such as:
• Senior citizens which are not able to
use digital services
• Senior citizens which will be first time
users of digital channels
• Corporate customers in F&B business
with financial distress
• Gather customer insight from branch
employees and call center
representatives to pinpoint the real need
• Arrange "quick and dirty"
brainstorming and ideation sessions to
generate ideas on how to solve pain
points of these personas. Leverage
industry best practices on
brainstorming.
• Leverage techniques such as rapid
prototyping and guerilla testing to
understand value it will bring for
customers
• Assess easiness to implement and
value to prioritize scarce resources
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Agile and Continuous
Delivery: Build a MVP and
iterate from there
• Establish a "war room" specific for digital
platform development that coordinates
all efforts related to software
development and prioritize requirements
in terms of urgency and value for
customers
• Adopt an agile approach to improve time
to market with fast cycle times and
incremental manner
• Review existing requirements and refine
your roadmap for crisis period while not
losing long-term strategic approach for
the new "normal"
• Reach out to your vendors and other
supporting teams to inform them
about a new way of working and
aligning
• Adapt new platforms and tools
enabling agile and remote working
effectively such as Zoom, Jira, Slack,
GitHub, InVision, Zeplin and more.
• Replace meetings with daily standups,
quick online chats and polls while
creating “quiet hours” to increase
effectiveness
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Data & Analytics:
Invest for Maximum
Value
• Use the persona and journey mapping
that you have defined for coronavirus
crisis
• Analyse each personas' digital behavior
to understand which services are being
used most or where they are having
trouble
• Define communication plan with the
target group in mind
• Personalize each engagement by
defining audience group with different
criteria using engagement tools (such
as Airship, Adobe or Dataroid)
• Visualize how your users navigate
through your apps by using analytics
reports such as user paths and funnel
reporting and understand pain points
• Trigger your messages and
notification based on the events that
your users perform (e.g. remind that
you will charge no fee during the
outbreak to the users who intend to
make a money transfer)
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
How we can help
Digital Banking
Commencis works with leading banks and
financial services players around the globe
to accelerate their innovation and enhance
their digital customer experience by building
award-winning solutions and products.
Digital Analytics &
Engagement
Dataroid is a digital analytics and
customer engagement platform that
empowers banks and leading enterprises
to better understand every individual
customer experience and take real-time
actions.
• Out of the box behavioral and geo-
targeting improving click-through
rates by 5-6 times
• Dynamic user path and funnel
analytics visualizing real-time
customer journeys
• Easy integration with digital channels
using SDKs without backend
dependency
50+million customers
are using our digital
banking products
designed and built by
Commencis.
30+leading banks in
digital banking
solutions
We have collaborated
with
Unified Customer
Data Platform
Digital Experience
Analytics
Omnichannel
Customer Engagement
AI & Predictive Analytics
39© Commencis 2019. All Rights Reserved.
Disclaimer
This document is intended for general
informational purposes only and does
not take into account the reader’s
specific circumstances, and may not
reflect the most current developments.
Commencis disclaims, to fullest
extended permitted by applicable law,
any and all liability for the accuracy and
completeness of the information in the
report and for any acts or omissions
made based on such information.
Readers are responsible for obtaining
such advice from their own legal counsel
or other licensed professionals.
References
Aero Telegraph, ‘How long will the liquidity of European airlines last?, Mar 30, 2020.
AT Kearney, ‘Retail Banking Radar 2020’, April 2020
RBain & Company, ‘Tracking the Global Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak’, Apr 7, 2020
BBC News, ‘Coronavirus: Oil price collapses to lowest level for 18 years’, Mar 30, 2020.
Econsultancy, ‘Stats roundup: coronavirus impact on marketing, ecommerce & advertising’, April, 9, 2020.
International Air Transport Association, ‘Covid-19 Airlines’ Liquidity Crisis Report’, Mar 17, 2020.
Nielsen, ‘Key Consumer Behavior Thresholds Identified as the Coronavirus Outbreak Evolves’, Mar 10, 2020
IMF, ‘Global Financial Stability Report’, April 2020
SimilarWeb, ‘Whitepaper: Global Coronavirus Impact’, Mar 30, 2020
Quartz, ‘Coronavirus has killed off public transportation across the Western world’, Mar 24, 2020
USA Today, ‘Industries hit hardest by coronavirus in the US include retail, transportation, and travel’, Mar 21, 2020.
World Economic Forum, ‘This is how coronavirus could affect the travel and tourism industry’, Mar 17, 2020
World Health Organization, ‘Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 80’, Apr 9, 2020
Worldometer, ‘Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic’, Apr 10, 2020.
© Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
40© Commencis 2019. All Rights Reserved.
About Commencis
Commencis is an award-winning technology
company helping leading brands grow and
scale in digital by providing end-to-end
software development solutions covering the
entire product lifecycle.
With its offices in London, Istanbul and Berlin,
Commencis provides digital strategy, high-
quality design and development services to
build high-performant, scalable products that
are used by millions.
Using cutting-edge technologies and software
development best practices, Commencis
supports its clients to innovate and differentiate
with its digital platforms for more than 15 years.
Copyright © Commencis 2020.
All rights reserved. Commencis and its logo are registered trademarks.
Commencis works with leading banks and
financial services players around the globe to
accelerate their innovation and enhance their
digital customer experience by building award-
winning solutions and products.
With its solutions in digital banking, Commencis
has helped more than 30 banks and changed the
digital banking experience for 50+ million banking
customers.
Contact Information
Hello@commencis.com
Offices
London
184 Shepherds Bush Rd,
Hammersmith
W6 7NL
Istanbul
Buyukdere Cad.
No: 223 B Park Plaza
34396 Maslak
Berlin
Hardenbergstraße 32,
10623

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Commencis Covid-19 Playbook for Financial Services

  • 1. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Covid-19 Playbook for Financial Services May, 2020
  • 2. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. The novel coronavirus, COVID-19 has turned into a global crisis, evolving at an unprecedented speed and scale. As governments take immediate actions to cope with the outbreak, businesses are rapidly adapting to the changing needs of people, consumers and suppliers while also trying to overcome the financial and operational challenges. The outbreak has severe impacts on consumer behaviour as well as the world economy. GDP is taking a currently having a serious beating. The size of the impact in different parts of the world will depend mainly on how long the present situation lasts. As the pandemic continues, more and more industries are feeling the strain. The financial industry is certainly one of them. Whilst, the current situation is challenging for the industry, if well- handled it can also bring opportunities for innovation and long- term customer loyalty. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Now, more than ever, financial industry must focus on areas that can thrive in a post-COVID-19 world. The financial industry can open up opportunities by taking some critical key actions during this crisis. This report aims to give an overview of the shifting landscape across many industries but mainly focuses on the implications of COVID-19 on financial industry, and how banks can enhance their capabilities to survive during these rough times. Foreword
  • 3. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Executive Summary • The novel coronavirus outbreak, which originated in China, continues to expand rapidly affecting approximately 3.6 million people globally. The infection has caused more than 245k deaths in the last 5 months with the USA having the highest death ratio. • The Covid-19 health crisis will continue to have a severe economic impact across the world in 2020. According to IMF, the global economy is projected to contract by 3% in 2020 with a “partial recovery” in 2021. The U.S. economy shrank at a 4.8% annual rate in the first three months of the year — the first quarterly contraction since 2014 and the largest since the Great Recession. • Due to the current crisis, reduced economic activity and consumer demand has a severe impact on certain industries - mainly on airlines, tourism, entertainment & sports, food services, oil & gas, transportation and retail. • While the banking system is better prepared to absorb the impact of crisis with a higher capital ratio compared to 2007, the large declines in bank equity prices since mid-January suggest that investors are concerned about bank profitability and resilience, and banks have significant exposures due to existing loan commitments and lending to commercial real estate debt. • According to the Retail Banking Radar 2020, revenue for retail banks will fall by an average of 20% by the end of 2020 resulting from mixed impact of payment holidays on credit cards and loans, interest-free offers, low base interest rates and reduced revenue from management fees. • We have identified 7 critical areas in which banks and other financial services players should take action over the course of Covid-19 crisis: Employee safety & business continuity, Proactive & personal communication, Digital adoption, Financial support & guidance, Tools for social distancing, Banking for senior citizens, SMB programs and support • While most banks are taking short-term precautions to deal with COVID-19 related crisis, business models and customer behaviors continue shifting and create a new "normal" for banks and its customers. To survive the current crisis and thrive in a new world, banks need to invest in digital and key critical capabilities now more than ever.
  • 4. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Global Overview © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Agenda | Global Overview • Covid-19 Around the Globe • Economic Impact of Covid-19 • Impact on Financial Services The impact of Covid-19:
  • 5. Africa Total cases > 42,500 Total deaths > 26,800 Europe Total cases >1,200,000 Total deaths > 118,000 South America Total cases > 200,000 Total deaths > 10,000 North America Total cases > 1,260,000 Total deaths > 73,800 China Total cases > 82,800 Total deaths > 4,600 Oceania Total cases > 8,200 Total deaths > 100 Nordic countries Total cases > 46,700 Total deaths >3500 Asia (w/o China) Total cases >163,300 Total deaths >4,600 Middle East Total cases > 317,900 Total deaths > 10,700 The global outbreak map Countries with more than 10,000 reported cases New York City region is now the epicenter of the coronavirus w/ more than 310.000 cases higher than any other single country. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Source: World Health Organization (WHO) Database *As of May 3rd
  • 6. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. The Covid-19 health crisis will continue to have a severe economic impact across all regions in 2020 2.9 -3.0 5.8 2019 20212020 World Growth Projections Real GDP Growth, % change 2.3 -5.9 4.7 0.1 -5.2 3.4 1.2 -7.5 4.7 1.2 -2.8 4.0 5.5 1.0 8.5 3.1 -1.6 4.1 United States Euro Area Emerging & Developing Asia Middle East & Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & The Caribbean 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2020
  • 7. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 -5.0 -7.0 -2.0 -6.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Alternative scenarios estimate a minimum -3% deviation in global real GDP growth in 2020 as well as significant decrease in commodity and oil prices World Real GDP (% deviation from baseline) Longer outbreak in 2020 New outbreak in 2021 Longer outbreak in 2020 plus new outbreak in 2021 Alternative Scenarios in the Fight Against Covid-19 Real Oil Price (% deviation from baseline) Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, G-20 Simulations , April 2020
  • 8. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 EUUSA JPN GBR KOR SWE CAN -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 MEXPOLCHN BRATURIND RUS While US dollar has been gaining strength, most countries has been impacted by the changes in exchange rates Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, September 2019-April 2020 (%) Latest versus December 31, 2019 December 2019 versus September 2019 Advanced Economies Emerging Market Economies Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, G-20 Simulations , April 2020
  • 9. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. The current crisis unfolding globally changes consumer behaviors… How consumer behavior is changing globally Stockpiling food & medical supplies Shift from stores to e-commerce Increased need for staying connected • Grocery sales through all channels jumped nearly 26% in March, the highest rate in at least 25 years. • Grocery sales in the UK are now at an all-time high in the 4 weeks ending March 22 - $13.24 billion was spent at supermarkets across the country which is 20% more than the previous period. • In Italy and France, the increase in the sales of medical supplies outpace even food products. (286% and 600% increase respectively compared to previous month.) • Sales for health and personal care merchants grew 5.5% year over year in March • The German discounters Aldi and Lidl’s sales has risen by 11% and 18% respectively during the past 12 weeks. • Egg sales increased 44% for the week ending on March 14 compared with a year ago due to stockpiling. • Most of the supermarkets limit the number of the same product, shoppers can buy in a single transaction. • As consumers stay home during the crisis, e- commerce sales in general are in surge, but grocery sales are where the biggest long-term impact could occur. • In the US, e-commerce spending is up more than 40% year-over-year on March 13 through March 24. • In Italy, e-commerce transactions have risen 81% since the end of February. • Downloads of Instacart and Walmart’s grocery app increased 218% and 160% respectively compared with a year prior • Amazon hired 100,000 people to meet with increasing demand. Now it's hiring another 75,000. • Online grocer Ocado has acquired 133,000 new shoppers boosting its sales by 13 percent. • 41% of online grocery users are buying groceries online for the first time. • In the US, online home furnishing sales stay still high with the rise of remote working, while online transactions in fashion and luxury remain above the same period last year. Increasing internet traffic: • Internet traffic is up 18 % in the US in the first 3 months of this year • Vodafone is experiencing a 30% rise in internet traffic across its UK fixed-line and mobile networks Rising demand for news, content and mobile games • Americans’ TV viewing jumped nearly 60% during past crisis • Viewing of cable news networks increased 73% vs. the same week in 2019 • Disney+ is posting impressive growth doubling its subscriber base since the start of 2020 while Netflix attracting 16 million new paying subscribers to its service • In total, more than 13 billion games has been downloaded by mobile users during the first 3 months of this year Need for Online Conferencing and Messaging • Zoom has surpasses 300 million daily meeting participants – a huge jump from the 10 million back in December • Whatsapp has enjoyed a 40% increase in usage
  • 10. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. …and has been impacting certain industries drastically Airlines Most Impacted Industries from Covid-19 Crisis The aviation industry deals with the most unprecedented occurrence it has ever faced. IATA* projected that the U.S. and Canadian airline industry could lose as much as $21.1 billion in revenue. Airlines all around the world have been experiencing a serious liquidity crisis. 75 percent of them are not having enough to cover more than three months of fixed costs. Tourism The tourism industry accounts for 10% of the world’s GDP and jobs. The coronavirus epidemic is putting up to 50 million jobs in the global travel and tourism sector at risk. Once the outbreak is under control, it could take 10 months for the tourism sector to return back to normal levels. Entertainment & Sports Film, TV and music industries have been hugely impacted as most of the productions are halted and events are cancelled. The postponement or suspension of sports leagues have created a huge vacuum for the wide ecosystem that has cropped up around them. NBA is expected to lose $350 million-$450 million from ticket sales alone. Food services & delivery Delivery companies have responded to the evolving situation with new hygiene regulations to maintain the continued use of the platforms. Logistics have been a growing challenge with regards to staffing and managing real-time inventory, besides wait times for grocery delivery continue to increase, and workers have voiced concern over their own safety. Oil & Gas The price of crude oil has fallen significantly hitting 18-year low due to the cut backs in production and huge decrease in all means of transport. The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has also affected the down streaming of the industry. Transportation Public transportation has almost come to a halt. The usage of public transport systems decreased more than 80% in European and US cities since Jan. 15. Safety is a top priority for everyone still working in, and using, public transport. Until now, more than 20 percent of UK public transport staff are either sick or self- isolated. Retail UK retail industry is forecasted to see a loss of £12.6bn in 2020 and with stores accounting for 75% of sales for most retailers, a massive earning per share declines are expected in the USA. The U.S. online grocery sales for all of March were up 233% compared with August 2019. Though there is an increased demand in online grocery healthy & personal care products, fashion and luxury-goods sales are in downturn.
  • 11. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Compared to 2007, banks are better prepared to absorb the losses with a higher capital. However, their equity prices have been decreasing since mid-January suggesting that investors are concerned about profitability. -60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 CHN BRA TUR JPN ITA SGP USA SWE RUS POL DEU GBR BEL ESP FRA NDL IRL 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 GBR CHNIRL TURHKGSWE NOR NLD POLDEU BEL ESPFRA SGP JPN ITA BRA USA RUS Banking System Tier 1 Capital Ratios (%) 2007 2019 At least 1,000 cases of Covid-19 per million of population Less than 1,000 cases of Covid-19 per million of population Change in Bank Equity Prices (% Change since January 17) Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020
  • 12. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0 60 20 40 80 100 DEUJPNUSA GBR FRA CAN ITA 24,3 14,2 North America 53,9 14,3 6,6 6,36,769,4 70,1 Europe 10,0Asia Pacific 19,2 100%Commercial banks CMBS Covered bonds Nonbank financial institutions Bad banks Property company bonds Loan Commitments: Sample of Banks, End-2019 Commercial Real Estate Debt Holding, 2018 (% of Total) Percentofrisk-weightedassets TrillionsofUSdollars Percent of risk-weighted assets Trillions of US dollars Banks have significant exposures due to existing loan commitments and lending to commercial real estate debt Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020
  • 13. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. According to the Retail Banking Radar 2020, revenue for retail banks will fall by an average of 20% in 2020 Source: AT Kearney, The Retail Banking Radar 2020 20%Decline in retail banking revenues 1 in 8Banks will face losses this financial year ~60% Profitability per customer will be reduced by According to the Retail Banking Radar published by AT Kearney, the analysis has found that revenue for retail banks will fall by an average of 20% over the course of 2020 and that profitability per customer will reduce by approximately 60%. While the base scenario estimates 20 percent decrease, it is estimated that revenues could drop by 35 to 40 percent, depending on the starting point and revenues mix between different products, and impacts of: • Payment holidays on credit cards, loans and other products • Interest-free offers and overdrafts • Low base interest rates • Reduced economic activity • Reduced revenue from management fees of financial assets under management The Retail Banking Radar tracks 92 retail banks in 22 European markets, compromised of 50 banks in Western Europe and 42 banks in Eastern Europe.
  • 14. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Agenda | Covid-19 Playbook • Global Case Studies • Key Initiatives • Recommendations Covid-19 Playbook How banks should face the crisis:
  • 15. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. We have identified 7 critical areas in which banks and other financial services players should take action over the course of Covid-19 crisis Employee Safety & Business Continuity Covid-19 Playbook Proactive & Personal Communication Digital Adoption (even for non- digitals) Financial Support & Guidance Tools for Social Distancing Banking for Senior Citizens SMB Programs & Support Initiatives powered by digital
  • 16. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Employee Safety & Business Continuity To provide their services as usual, banks need to minimize disruption caused by the pandemic and take actions regarding to business continuity. Global Case Studies Bank of America has announced that they won’t be doing any layoffs or job reduction in 2020. Also, they claimed that they hired more than 2000 new employees in March alone and raised their US minimum hourly wage to $20. Chase has temporarily closed about 20% of its branches. Chase customers are able to use the locator to check if their branch has been closed. ING Bank has announced that around 75% of its total workforce is working from home and they are working on increasing that number. ING’s global Senior Crisis Management team in Amsterdam constantly monitors the operations of the businesses in over 40 countries through daily updates from local teams on spread of the virus in countries, the percentage of staff working from home and the measures they are taking to safeguard their employees and ensure business continuity. TD Bank in Canada is to shift most of its 9,500 call center employees to work from home. The bank is moving about 350 Canadian and 150 U.S. workers a day into remote capability and should complete the transition by the end of April 2020.
  • 17. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Initiatives powered by digital Employee Safety & Business Continuity Action Plan • Establish a central task force which works with each function to identify precautionary actions, tracks daily implementation and results • Ensure employee safety by taking actions such as: • Restricting travel • Emphasizing workplace hygiene and ensuring cleanliness of all branches and customer interaction locations • Offering alternative ways of working / remote working options • Identify functions which cannot easily executed remotely due to compliance and technology requirements and segregate team members as a back up plan Monitor closely the demand for customer service and reduce operations if possible or take actions to redirect customers to use online channels • Modify existing policies, controls and practices according to the new “normal”
  • 18. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Proactive & Personal Communication Now more than ever, constant communication plays a crucial role to engage with customers, and banks should be proactive in providing critical information to their customers. Global Case Studies Deutsche Bank has been publishing daily newsletter called “Corona Crisis Daily” which shows the latest global new case and mortality numbers alongside the rate of growth in each of the last five days. It also highlights the main news on the virus over the last day, the key company statements seen regarding the impact of the outbreak as well as the latest policy announcements combatting it. Besides the customer care specialists supporting its customers 24 hours, 7 days a week, ING Bank Australia has created a help center which includes detailed FAQ regarding to general and product specific enquiries. CaixaBank encourages senior citizens to use online channels and avoid any non-essential travel by identifying with senior customers who regularly receive their pension in cash and proactively contacting through call center.
  • 19. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Action Plan • Reach out to the customers to understand and solve their problems - not for marketing purposes Create a digital hub dedicated to COVID- 19 to share all related updates such as financial support packages and resources to guide them, i.e. apply for loan extension Provide real-time updates on changing service availability (such as branch working hours) through push notifications and other engagement channels • Inform about financial benefits and flexibilities Personalize communication through 1:1 marketing at scale by using digital analytics and engagement tools Proactive & Personal Communication Initiatives powered by digital
  • 20. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Digital Adoption (even for non-digitals) To keep their customers out of branches for their health and safety, banks should encourage the use of digital channels whenever possible. By introducing functionalities enabling customers to perform key transactions online, they can limit face-to-face support needed. Citi enables its users by making it easier for cardholders to dispute pending charges through mobile app. Citi customers with travel and event cancellations can track their pending charges. Ant Financial is planning to open up Alipay to third parties enabling millions of service providers to offer “contactless” services across China, including grocery deliveries, legal and medical advice, logistics and public services. Within a week, more than 1200 developers responded and created 181 mini programs. Hang Seng Bank has introduced a new chat contact for WhatsApp users in Hong Kong, providing a direct connection to its retail virtual assistant Haro. With ability to process natural language, Haro shares the most up-to-date information and sends regular foreign exchange or market outlook updates to customers. Global Case Studies
  • 21. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Action Plan • Identify customers that are enrolled into mobile and internet banking channels and share content to guide them to adapt these channels Provide an effective tutorial for digital onboarding for the first time users • Identify non-digital customers (mostly elder people which may have difficulty to adapt) and reach out through call center or home visits • Identify customers visiting call center and branches to perform the transactions which can be done through digital channels and redirect them Help merchants to open their digital business by providing merchant enrollment for payment services online Digital Adoption (even for non-digitals) Initiatives powered by digital
  • 22. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Financial Support & Guidance Most banks have already started to waive loan payments, interest charges and fees to relieve their customers facing financial stress. Besides providing financial support, they also guide individuals and businesses in terms of their financial queries. In addition to direct helplines for the ones that are in need most, they provide or direct customers to online tools and platforms to help them create budgets, understand pros and cons of financial options. Global Case Studies Bank of America has been the first major lender to get its web portal for the Paycheck Protection Program up and running to enable customers’ online application. In addition to €35 million donation, BBVA launched the campaign “Your contribution is worth double” among its employees. The bank will contribute another euro for every euro donated by an employee. Revolut adds in-app donation button for The Trussel Trust Foodbank, the UK’s largest food bank network, for its customers in the UK to help those most in need. Starling offers arranged overdraft interest holidays to personal account holders who are struggling financially as a result of the outbreak. Starling will also waive all interest charges during 3- month interest holiday and the interest will not be added on at the end of the holiday period. Finturi, a new player in invoive financing, has recently received approval for launch of its invoice finance platform in the Netherlands. Through the platform, Finturi aims to provide solutions for SMBs' working capital problem.
  • 23. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Action Plan • Skip payments for mortgages and loans without penalty • Offer a dedicated helpline to provide financial advice • Support savings customers with penalty free access to fixed rate products • Suspense fees to merchants and individuals • Extend credit card limits Provide solutions for small and medium- sized businesses to survive their operations during the crisis Financial Support & Guidance Initiatives powered by digital
  • 24. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Tools for Social Distancing Banks should provide and encourage services which limit physical interaction and help their customers to sustain social distancing. With the functionalities such as contactless payment, QR-based solutions that minimize contact, banks can help their customers to keep their distance and less contact with contaminated surfaces. Global Case Studies Safaricom, the provider of popular M-Pesa mobile money service, is waiving fees in an effort to encourage people to use digital platforms instead of cash during the pandemic. China aims to launch the world’s first official digital currency. China’s digital currency plans are gathering pace with trials taking place across four cities and reports emerging that well- known players such as Starbucks and McDonald’s are se to take part in testing. The People’s Bank of China stresses that the currency is still at the test phase. OCBC in Singapore introduces Google Pay’s peer-to-peer (P2P) funds transfer option to fuel cashless society. It will allow OCBC customers to pay directly from their bank accounts to anyone registered to PayNow using the Google Pay app. The Google Pay P2P service has a daily transfer limit of $1,000.
  • 25. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Action Plan • Discourage the use of cash and checks by providing and promoting contactless (card or wallet based) payments Make money withdrawals without touch by enabling NFC or QR-based solutions Introduce P2P payments to ease money transfer among people and between customers and small businesses Minimize branch visits through digital functionalities such as depositing checks using mobile app Tools for Social Distancing Initiatives powered by digital
  • 26. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Banking for Senior Citizens Global Case Studies Banco Santander has launched a new program "Here and Now" in Portugal, targeting its 145,000 customers over 65 to help them with their banking related needs, proactively solve their problems and assist them to adapt and use digital channels. Nationwide is to open 100 branches at 8am, rather than 9am, to provide dedicated services to elderly and vulnerable customers with underlying health conditions to self-isolate and reduce social contact. Starling has introduced a connected second debit card to existing bank account to support customers in self-isolation. The card is ideally designed to be provided to trusted people who may be shopping for food or other essential items on behalf of the bank customer. Card features include payment restrictions for use in physical shops only. Lloyds Banking Group is to equip up to 2000 customers over the age of 70 with free tablet devices and set up a dedicated phone line to provide training and support to help vulnerable people access online banking. With more customers staying in, there has been significant growth in digital wealth and uptake of digital banking products and services. Especially among senior citizens, the demand and adoption of digital channels has been increasing with the help of special programs. Digital Adoption in Singapore (in banking) 20% YoY increase in 60 to 80-year- old segment 7% YoY increase in other segments vs
  • 27. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Action Plan • Identify active customers who are over a certain age at a high-risk group and have been affected by coronavirus-related precautions • Better understand their needs and pain points by creating their personas and journeys which has been affected by coronavirus crisis • Analyze digital usage and adoption of mobile and internet banking platforms • Launch programs to increase their adoption and us of digital channels as well as services and products enabling them to keep their social distance • Proactively communicate to identify difficulties they face during the crisis and concerns • Provide dedicated support through call center, branches and other customer interaction points Banking for Senior Citizens Initiatives powered by digital
  • 28. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. SMB Programs & Support Global Case Studies DBS has engaged with startups and enabled its payment platform to provide F&B establishments with the ability to set up an online food ordering site in just 3 business days. DBS absorbs the set-up costs and waives fees for the first six months. NatWest is waiving monthly hire fees for POS terminals from its payment product Tyl until the end of 2020. Tyl aims to ensure businesses who sign up for its service that have received terminals and are ready to accept payments within 24 hours. Wirecard introduced a new initiative, an assistance package for merchants including discounted or free use of digital payment solutions and a rapid product integration to enable them create their own online shops, send payment links and receive payments. iZettle and logistics platform Stuart have announced a partnership to offer SMEs remote payment and delivery services during the lockdown. SMEs can now accept customer orders over the phone, on social media or online, and then use Stuart’s platform to arrange for delivery. iZettle then completes the sales by allowing users to invoice customers remotely using its online payment portal, Payment Links, which allows merchants to create a one-time link to send to their customers. Why is it important to support small businesses during the crisis? • There are more than 30 million small businesses in the US, and 25 million SMEs in Europe. • In the US, small businesses accounted for over half of net job creation in 2014. • Most small businesses lack the cash reserves to weather a month-long interruption. • 176 thousand businesses marked closed on Yelp by April 19th. • 48 million small business jobs are at risk from a small business collapse.
  • 29. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Action Plan • Assess the vulnerability of your existing merchant segment in the face of coronavirus crisis and identify needs to survive their business • Offer assistance packages including financial benefits such as free use of solutions or products or waiving the fee for a certain period of time Review existing processes and identify the processes which need face-to-face interaction in branches and digitalize the processes based on criticality Partner with other solution providers such as payment solution providers, delivery service providers, e-commerce solution providers to enable merchants to move their businesses and accept payments online Increase the easiness to open a merchant account with your bank by adopting an online application process SMB Programs & Support Initiatives powered by digital
  • 30. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Agenda | Digital Roadmap • Critical Consideration Areas for Digital Investments • Priorities in Digital Banking • Critical Capabilities for Post-crisis market Digital Roadmap How to invest in digital capabilities:
  • 31. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Planning for Digital Banking Roadmap As customers need banks to provide their services as usual during the Covid-19 crisis, banks should invest more into their mobile and internet banking channels not only for 7/24 services, but also support their customers in terms of health and social distancing. Covid-19 Checklist for Digital Banking Investments Increase customer adoption and usage of digital channels Make services available 7/24 for customers Help bank to optimize demand for call center and branches Enable customers to reach financial support and advice Create value for the personas / segments that are most affected by Covid-19 crisis Help customers to keep their social distance and preserve their health in public places Help customers better engage with the bank and increase satisfaction Enables customers to complete their transactions fast 
  • 32. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Which functionalities should banks prioritize in their digital platforms during Covid-19 crisis? Prelogin Login Dashboard Accounts Transfer Money Pay Bill P2P Payment Mortgages & Loans Checks Investments Debit / Credit Cards Engage Become a New Customer Locate ATMs & Branches Book Appointment View Market & Product Information Easy Application Quick Access: Payment & Money Withdrawal Sign Up for First Time User Login with Passcode OTP Authentication Login with Biometrics Forgot Passcode Chatbot Onboarding Tutorial Dashboard Quick Access Checking Account Savings Account Open / Close Account View / Send Statements Make / Schedule Manage Beneficiaries Direct Debit Card Controls Limits Apply / Activate Lock / Unlock Lost / Stolen Pay / Postpone Disputes RewardsBuy/Sell FX Trade Order Deposit Get a quote Apply ViewDelay Alert Rules Push Notification Message Center Make / Schedule Manage Payees Recurring Payments Send Money Request Money Split Bill Support Direct Access Account Info & Security Personal Info Update Preferences PFM View Spending Cash to ATM Wallets Tax Payments QR/NFC Enabled View Virtual Cards Set Budget Set Saving Goal Track Progress In-app Message Critical Must-Have Functionalities Functionalities with Higher Importance due to Covid- 19 Pandemic Nice to Have or Strategic Functionalities for Longer Term Investment User functionalities in terms of critically: Personaliza tion Commencis Digital Banking Framework
  • 33. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Critical Must-Have Functionalities Functionalities with Higher Importance due to Covid-19 Pandemic Nice to Have or Strategic Functionalities for Longer Term Investment • Signup and login for mobile / internet banking • Perform all user account related transactions • Manage checking & savings accounts • View and manage debit and credit card • Report a lost / stolen card • Become a new customer view videoconference or online ID verification • Tutorial for first time users guiding through app • Update personal information online • Apply a merchant dispute and track online • Lock / Unlock cards temporarily • Chatbot or personal assistant • Simpler login with biometrics or facial recognition • Get a quote for mortgage or loan application • Apply for a loan or mortgage online • View mortgage or loan details and make payment • Deposit checks online • Request for payment delay or restructuring in loan or mortgage payment • Set saving goals and track spending with Personal Finance Management features • Increase credit card limit • Apply and activate credit card online • Open a trade account • Make trade (buy/ sell) bonds, stocks and other financial instruments • Make money transfers online • Pay bills • Pay taxes • Set recurring payments • QR or NFC based mobile payment • Wallet integration • Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Payment (send/request money) • QR or NFC based money withdrawal from ATM • Book an appointment for branches • Order checks online • Create virtual card for online transactions • Split bill • Set and send alerts • Send informative messages & notifications • Locate ATMs & Branches with working hours • Send personalized messages & notifications • Message center for direct communication with customer service • View and share market information • Set communication preferences Review your digital banking roadmap for Covid-19 Benefit Priority Digital Adoption Financial Support & Advice Social Distancing Communication
  • 34. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. The Post-crisis World: How to prepare for it While most banks are taking short- term precautions to deal with COVID-19 related crisis, business models and customer behaviors continue shifting and creating a new "normal" for banks and its customers. Banks need to extend beyond and plan across different time horizons to adapt for this new "normal" that has been redefining at the moment. Key Capabilities for Post-Crisis Survival Customer First: Human-centered Design Agile and Continuous Delivery: Build a MVP and iterate from there Data & Analytics: Invest for Maximum Value With the crisis, a certain group of banking customers will carry a heavier burden and have challenges to perform their routine financial transactions. Banks should reimagine their target personas and how they are affected by coronavirus crisis to develop new services and reshape existing ones. Banks need to shorten time to market for new services to fulfill consumer needs within the shortest time. To fasten time to market, banks should adopt an agile and iterative approach to product development and software delivery. With faster cycle times, digital teams can continuously improve their apps while showing flexibility to adapt urgent market needs. To increase effectiveness of communication, banks need to excel their skills to realize 1:1 marketing at scale by using big data and analytics capabilities. Using behavioral data from digital channels, banks can generate deep user insights for product development and innovation while creating personalized experiences.
  • 35. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Customer First: Human-centered Design • Define new personas under new circumstances considering their current needs and expectations such as: • Senior citizens which are not able to use digital services • Senior citizens which will be first time users of digital channels • Corporate customers in F&B business with financial distress • Gather customer insight from branch employees and call center representatives to pinpoint the real need • Arrange "quick and dirty" brainstorming and ideation sessions to generate ideas on how to solve pain points of these personas. Leverage industry best practices on brainstorming. • Leverage techniques such as rapid prototyping and guerilla testing to understand value it will bring for customers • Assess easiness to implement and value to prioritize scarce resources
  • 36. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Agile and Continuous Delivery: Build a MVP and iterate from there • Establish a "war room" specific for digital platform development that coordinates all efforts related to software development and prioritize requirements in terms of urgency and value for customers • Adopt an agile approach to improve time to market with fast cycle times and incremental manner • Review existing requirements and refine your roadmap for crisis period while not losing long-term strategic approach for the new "normal" • Reach out to your vendors and other supporting teams to inform them about a new way of working and aligning • Adapt new platforms and tools enabling agile and remote working effectively such as Zoom, Jira, Slack, GitHub, InVision, Zeplin and more. • Replace meetings with daily standups, quick online chats and polls while creating “quiet hours” to increase effectiveness
  • 37. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. Data & Analytics: Invest for Maximum Value • Use the persona and journey mapping that you have defined for coronavirus crisis • Analyse each personas' digital behavior to understand which services are being used most or where they are having trouble • Define communication plan with the target group in mind • Personalize each engagement by defining audience group with different criteria using engagement tools (such as Airship, Adobe or Dataroid) • Visualize how your users navigate through your apps by using analytics reports such as user paths and funnel reporting and understand pain points • Trigger your messages and notification based on the events that your users perform (e.g. remind that you will charge no fee during the outbreak to the users who intend to make a money transfer)
  • 38. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved. How we can help Digital Banking Commencis works with leading banks and financial services players around the globe to accelerate their innovation and enhance their digital customer experience by building award-winning solutions and products. Digital Analytics & Engagement Dataroid is a digital analytics and customer engagement platform that empowers banks and leading enterprises to better understand every individual customer experience and take real-time actions. • Out of the box behavioral and geo- targeting improving click-through rates by 5-6 times • Dynamic user path and funnel analytics visualizing real-time customer journeys • Easy integration with digital channels using SDKs without backend dependency 50+million customers are using our digital banking products designed and built by Commencis. 30+leading banks in digital banking solutions We have collaborated with Unified Customer Data Platform Digital Experience Analytics Omnichannel Customer Engagement AI & Predictive Analytics
  • 39. 39© Commencis 2019. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer This document is intended for general informational purposes only and does not take into account the reader’s specific circumstances, and may not reflect the most current developments. Commencis disclaims, to fullest extended permitted by applicable law, any and all liability for the accuracy and completeness of the information in the report and for any acts or omissions made based on such information. Readers are responsible for obtaining such advice from their own legal counsel or other licensed professionals. References Aero Telegraph, ‘How long will the liquidity of European airlines last?, Mar 30, 2020. AT Kearney, ‘Retail Banking Radar 2020’, April 2020 RBain & Company, ‘Tracking the Global Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak’, Apr 7, 2020 BBC News, ‘Coronavirus: Oil price collapses to lowest level for 18 years’, Mar 30, 2020. Econsultancy, ‘Stats roundup: coronavirus impact on marketing, ecommerce & advertising’, April, 9, 2020. International Air Transport Association, ‘Covid-19 Airlines’ Liquidity Crisis Report’, Mar 17, 2020. Nielsen, ‘Key Consumer Behavior Thresholds Identified as the Coronavirus Outbreak Evolves’, Mar 10, 2020 IMF, ‘Global Financial Stability Report’, April 2020 SimilarWeb, ‘Whitepaper: Global Coronavirus Impact’, Mar 30, 2020 Quartz, ‘Coronavirus has killed off public transportation across the Western world’, Mar 24, 2020 USA Today, ‘Industries hit hardest by coronavirus in the US include retail, transportation, and travel’, Mar 21, 2020. World Economic Forum, ‘This is how coronavirus could affect the travel and tourism industry’, Mar 17, 2020 World Health Organization, ‘Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 80’, Apr 9, 2020 Worldometer, ‘Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic’, Apr 10, 2020. © Commencis 2020. All Rights Reserved.
  • 40. 40© Commencis 2019. All Rights Reserved. About Commencis Commencis is an award-winning technology company helping leading brands grow and scale in digital by providing end-to-end software development solutions covering the entire product lifecycle. With its offices in London, Istanbul and Berlin, Commencis provides digital strategy, high- quality design and development services to build high-performant, scalable products that are used by millions. Using cutting-edge technologies and software development best practices, Commencis supports its clients to innovate and differentiate with its digital platforms for more than 15 years. Copyright © Commencis 2020. All rights reserved. Commencis and its logo are registered trademarks. Commencis works with leading banks and financial services players around the globe to accelerate their innovation and enhance their digital customer experience by building award- winning solutions and products. With its solutions in digital banking, Commencis has helped more than 30 banks and changed the digital banking experience for 50+ million banking customers. Contact Information Hello@commencis.com Offices London 184 Shepherds Bush Rd, Hammersmith W6 7NL Istanbul Buyukdere Cad. No: 223 B Park Plaza 34396 Maslak Berlin Hardenbergstraße 32, 10623