Automobile insurance: Paradigm Shift and Disruption

Automobile Insurance: Paradigm Shift and Disruption
AUGUST 2018
ARJUN BARDHAN

Automobile Insurance: Paradigm Shift and Disruption Arjun Bardhan
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Introduction
The auto insurance industry is going through a phase of disruption that could potentially
revolutionize the traditional model of insurance operations. There are multiple factors of the
changing society that contribute to this paradigm shift. This white paper elaborates four such
changes.
1. Millennials & the changing market
2. Telematics and Usage Based Insurance
3. Autonomous Vehicles
4. Technology in automobile claims
1. Millennials & the changing market
The generation commonly known as millennials, who are born between 1981 and 1996 and make
up nearly 35 percent of the U.S. labor force, (Fry, 2018) is presenting new challenges and
opportunities for the auto insurance industry. (Reiman, 2018)
There have been a few conflicting reports regarding the trend of car purchases among
millennials. According to a study, from 2007 to 2011, millennial car purchases declined 30
percent. (Ross, 2015) However, other studies backed by statistical data confirm that, contrary to the
popular belief, millennials are in fact buying cars. (Silvestri, 2017) According to the data from J.D.
Power and Associates’ Power Information Network, 29% of the new vehicles are bought by
millennials, and by 2020, millennials will be responsible for 40% of the new car sales. (Kurylko,
2017) (JD Power, 2017) A recent study conducted by Transunion substantiates this claim further,
where it has been reported that 80% of the millennials own or lease a car. (Transunion, 2017)
While the fact that millennials make up a significant share of the car buying population might
mitigate the danger of shrinkage of the auto insurance industry, it is also worthwhile to note that
millennials, unlike the earlier generations are significantly different in their wants and needs of
the auto insurance. (Cuscino, 2017) This poses a challenge for the auto insurance industry.

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1.1 Influence in auto insurance
Earlier, traditional insurance meant a trusted relationship between the insured and the local
agent, which often involved detailed in-person or telephonic discussion on cover and protection
options. But, millennials have a preference for buying insurance online, like any other product.
(Harman, 2017) What matters most to millennials is enhanced customer experience – easy
accessibility, fast response, and personalized offerings.(Agababa, 2018) Millennials have lived in the
era of instant gratification from personalized digital service providers, such as Amazon, Netflix
and Uber, who have tremendously shaped and influenced consumer expectations and
preferences. With consumers empowered like never before, the expectation is no different when
it comes to purchasing insurance.
Millennials prefer products that are easy to buy and customized to address their requirements.
Lemonade, an insurance-tech startup based in New York City, has been successful to bring many
millennials in by making their insurance easier to buy. (Superior Access, 2018)
Research shows that millennials in the UK are heavily influenced by their peer group and are
often guided more by friends’ recommendations and reviews than by the trust they would place
in a brand’s claims about itself. A survey conducted by IBM shows that this is the case for
roughly 89% to 93% of all millennials in the UK. In addition to this, the IBM survey showed that
more than half of all UK millennials are also influenced by price comparison sites, allowing
them to easily aggregate offers from multiple different companies. (Kesterson-Townes, 2016)
Marketing promotions, especially in social media and other digital platforms, has played a
key role ever since millennials came to the market. According to a study conducted by JD Power,
marketing expenditure has seen a rise of 62% over a period of 10 years, (Cairns, Super, 2018)
compared to the consumer price index for the US showing that prices increased by 17% during
the same period. (CPI Inflation, 2018) With less differentiation in the market, insurers are investing
more in advertising to build their brands and in new digital capabilities to offer personalized
insurance products and improve customer interactions. (JD Power, 2018)

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1.2 Impact on insurers
Gallup conducted a study (Portera, Yu, 2015) identifying the key factors that help insurers
improve customer engagement among millennials. The study shows that, when engaging with an
insurance carrier, millennial customers most value features that enable ease of payment and
allow them to keep their account & personal information secure.
Seizing the opportunity of a blooming millennial insurance business and the shift in
customer expectations, insurtech start-ups arrived in the market with more digital, customer-
centric and personalized offerings. This led to a significant capital investment and the growth of
insurtechs. TechCrunch reports that the insurtech industry has seen more than $2 billion in
venture capital since 2010. (Ramanand, 2015) These investors are betting big money that the tech
oriented start-ups are here to dominate because this may be partly driven by their ability to
provide a personalized experience, explore new products and improve customer satisfaction
through digital offerings.
Not just the tech firms, traditional insurance companies also have taken initiatives to
improve customer engagement through personalization of their core offerings, digital marketing
campaigns, and continuous engagement with millennials on digital platforms. (Zielonko, 2018)
Incumbents such as Geico, Progressive, and Allianz are using digital marketing techniques to
attract millennials. (Hua, 2015) (Anderson, 2017)
Almost all the traditional insurance companies are investing heavily on technology and
data analytics to understand and predict customer behavior and strengthen their underwriting and
claims operations. Instead of competing, they see an opportunity in partnering with the
innovative startups to capitalize on connectivity, reinvent the traditional operating and
distribution models, accelerate globalization, and enhance customer engagement. (Hochburger, 2018)
Tackling how to tap into this market is causing a major disruption to the industry but in
the long run could lead to substantial growth for those who are able to re-invent and adapt to the
changing needs of the customers.

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2. Telematics & Usage based Insurance (UBI)
2.1 What is Telematics?
A telematics device is an in-vehicle telecommunication device in the form of a dongle or a
black box installed into a special vehicle port or already integrated in original equipment
installed by car manufacturers or a mobile application. Telematics is not a new concept in the
insurance industry. The basic idea of telematics in auto insurance is to accurately monitor the
driver’s behavior in real time and use that data in rating and underwriting decision making.
Research conducted by the SMA group (Welch, Breading, 2013) (Gordon, 2013) shows the percentage of
insurers considering different telematics data for pricing and rating.
(Welch, Breading, 2013)
The data collected by insurance companies or third party data analytics companies, who
have advanced data collection technology and security standards, is further refined to derive and
interpret meaningful information about the driving record of the insured.

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2.2 Rating using Telematics
Traditionally, an auto insurance policy is rated based on a series of factors such as
demography (age, sex, marital status, and geographic location), accident history, credit report,
coverage limit etc., but most of them are not obtained in real time. For example, if an insured
was in an accident 3 years ago, and had a safe driving record and lower usage of car since then, it
might not make much difference to the premium. But now, the concept of rating can change with
the advent of Big Data and shift slowly from fixed cost to variable cost model. (NAIC, 2018) Using
efficient predictive analytics tools, rating algorithms can be developed more accurately. (Chapman,
2016)
Using telematics devices, the system records basic driving habits such as the numbers of
miles driven, speed, hard braking habit, location where the vehicle is driven, time of commute –
all collected in real time. This allows the insurer to get an accurate picture of the policyholder’s
risk profile and deep insights into their driving behavior. The primary reason most insurers are
opting for telematics and UBI is the significant improvement in pricing accuracy. (Willis Tower
Watson, 2017)
2.3 Usage based Insurance (UBI)
Usage based insurance, which started as an experiment in the early 2000, is currently
being offered by most insurance carriers in Europe and North America. A recent study by Frost
& Sullivan suggests that the total number of UBI policies, in Italy, the UK and the US, will reach
approximately 100 million drivers by 2020. (Frost & Sullivan, 2017)
This model of insurance puts the customer in charge of controlling insurance premiums
by adopting safer driving habits and driving fewer miles. Based on a set of parameters, which are
tracked by the telematics device, this model uses real time data to offer a more personalized
pricing to the customers. There are primarily two types of usage based insurance: (Metromile, 2017)
 Pay as you drive (PAYD): where premium is charged from the odometer reading based
on how much a vehicle is driven and when it is driven (lower premiums are charged
during off-peak hours (Gupta, Jones, 2016)). The lower the vehicle usage, the lower the
premium charged.

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 Pay how you drive (PHYD): where a fixed amount of premium is charged based on
driving habits and the premium can change every month depending on the quality of
driving.
In addition to rewarding the drivers who follow safe driving techniques, this model can
also provide assistance with route optimization when a vehicle is stuck in traffic. (Gupta, Jones, 2016)
Linking the insurance premiums with miles driven and driving record may reduce the number of
accidents, pollution and traffic congestion as well. (Litman, 2017) So, there is potentially a larger
benefit to the society that is connected with this insurance model.
Almost every large insurance carrier provides usage based insurance options.
Progressive’s usage-based option is called Snapshot, where the rate change is applied at renewal
based on the driving record of the previous policy term. Liberty Mutual’s usage based program is
called Right Track and has a similar concept. (Hunt, 2018)
2.4 The future of Usage based Insurance
Berg Insight estimates that the total number of insurance telematics policies will reach
28.1 million in Europe and 32.5 million in North America in 2019 showing a compound annual
growth rate of 50.6 percent. (Andersson, 2015)

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2.5 Data Sharing, Data Security and Regulatory concerns
In order to enroll in the UBI program, the policyholder needs to give permission to the
insurance company and third party providers to access their personal information related to
driving record and lifestyle. The younger generations do not mind sharing such data as much as
the earlier generations and hence telematics have found more acceptance among them. (Gupta,
Jones, 2016)
The insurance providers, however, are responsible to establish the highest standards of
security to protect sensitive customer information. This could be quite a challenging task
considering the volume of customer data insurance companies have to collect. In an interview
with Telematics Wire, Progressive’s General Manager Dave L. Pratt mentioned that Progressive
has collected over 10 billion miles of driving data over a period of 15 years. (Telematics Wire, 2014)
While the incumbents might have the resources to partner with data analytics companies and
capital to invest in relatively expensive data protection and storage costs, it remains to be seen
how the smaller and mid-sized carriers manage the data security and embrace the changes that
UBI is bringing to the market.
The insurance industry, unlike e-commerce and others, is a highly regulated industry. It is
a daunting task for the providers to work with the concerned department in every state, where
there are different regulatory standards to develop a usage based insurance model. Many states
might require insurers to obtain approval before using any new rating plans. Rate filings usually
require statistical data to support the proposed rating structure. These challenges can make
adopting UBI more difficult for an insurer without any UBI experience.
While UBI is gaining popularity and attracting more policyholders, it remains to be seen
how the privacy and data protection laws, data breach incidents in recent times and the
regulatory requirements impact the model in the long term.

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3. Autonomous Vehicles
With the inception of autonomous vehicles and as self-driving cars become a norm, they could
potentially disrupt the auto insurance industry.
Self-driving cars are approaching fast, in fact faster than initially predicted. (Moukanas,
Thibault, 2018) Tesla, Uber and Alphabet (Waymo) are some of the companies who have launched
and are continuously testing self-driving cars which are fully autonomous. (Miller, 2018) The
estimate is that fully autonomous vehicles from major car manufacturers will hit the road from
2020. (Walker, 2018) A study conducted by Accenture in collaboration with the Stevens Institute of
Technology indicates, by 2035, there will be about 23 million fully autonomous vehicles on US
Highways. (Karp, Kim, 2017)
3.1 How Autonomous vehicles impact the insurance industry
The major change that could happen in this scenario is the shift of risk from the driver to
the car manufacturer. The common perception is that since it is a fully autonomous vehicle, in
event of an incident, the automaker should be responsible to assume the risk, and the liability
should shift from the driver to the vehicle. The car manufacturer would be expected to purchase
liability insurance. (Tyson, Schultz, 2018)
However, there could also be situations where the driver could have intervened and taken
control of the situation prior to an accident, but didn’t. Although, it can be monitored and
interpreted who is at fault – the vehicle or the driver, since every action can be monitored in an
autonomous vehicle, but there is no specific rule in place yet (Gonzalez, 2018) and it remains unclear
whether both will be eventually responsible to purchase liability insurance. (Tyson, Schultz, 2018)
According to a study conducted by KPMG on the impact of autonomous vehicles on the
insurance industry, (KPMG, 2016) the findings are alarming. To summarize, here are the major
outcomes KPMG expects:
 In the next 25 years, the auto insurance market is expected to reduce by 40%

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 By 2040, the average number of accidents per vehicle will be approximately 0.009,
signifying a total of 80% reduction in accident frequency. Fewer accidents imply a
reduced need for insurance and the carriers will need to lower the premiums substantially.
 A 60% reduction in overall personal auto loss cost. By 2040, the personal auto insurance
industry is estimated to cover less than $50 billion in overall auto loss cost, which is a big
departure from the current amount of $125 billion.
 Even though the overall loss cost is expected to decrease, the severity however, is
expected to increase by 150% by 2040, from almost $14,000 to approximately $35,000.
 About 75% of insurance carriers believe that their organization is currently unprepared to
handle these changes
3.2 The future for the auto insurance industry
There could be a significant change in the way the auto insurance industry operated to
date and how it will shape up in the next 25 years. Here is how driverless vehicles will impact
the insurance industry over the next 10 years, according to the survey (KPMG, 2016) conducted by
KPMG:
John Cusano (Senior Managing Director, Financial Services Management Consulting for
Accenture.) and Michael Costonis (Global Insurance Practice Lead for Accenture) shared their
thoughts in a piece on Harvard Business Review and discussed how self-driving cars would

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affect the auto insurance industry, how insurers should react, and also mentioned the alternate
revenue streams (Cusano, Costonis, 2017) such as:
 Cyber insurance: It is considered to be a whole new industry by itself and a big chunk
of alternate revenue. A self-driving car will be more susceptible to cyber-attacks and
hence it is very likely that the car manufacturers will purchase cyber-insurance from the
insurers.
 Comprehensive coverage by drivers: The drivers of the vehicles will need to purchase
comprehensive coverage to protect the vehicles against theft, storm, etc.
 Liability insurance by car manufacturers: The car manufacturers will probably
purchase the major part of the liability insurance since, in most cases, the onus would be
upon them rather than the driver.
 Liability insurance for products: Since an autonomous vehicle will have expensive
parts, it is very likely that the manufacturers will insure these parts.
The bottom line is that the insurance companies who can anticipate and prepare for the
change, reinvent operational, actuarial, and claims models, innovate through technology,
implement sound risk management and cost management strategies, and find alternate revenue
streams will survive and might continue to be profitable.

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4. Technology in Automobile Claims
Technology, primarily Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Robotic Process Automation
(RPA), is revolutionizing the way claims are processed and paid, and helping the insurance
companies to enhance customer satisfaction and reduce operational costs. (Makhluf, 2018)
Machine learning techniques and modern predictive analytics tools have been effective so
far to fight fraudulent claims, reduce the need for human intervention, and create an automated
workflow that speed up the loss reporting and customer support. (Marr, 2017)
RPA, on the other hand, has especially helped the traditional carriers with legacy systems, to
automate the manual tasks involved in entry and verification of claims data, interaction across
different systems and databases, reducing the manual labor of the claims adjuster and saving
money for the insurance carriers. (The Lab, 2018) The advantage of RPA is that it helps to improve
the back-office efficiency without the need of any redesign of the system. (Verma, 2018) A study
conducted by Accenture has shown that using RPA can increase the overall operational capacity
by up to 30 percent and also minimize the operational risk and improve the customer experience.
(Whatling, Johnson, 2016)
4.1 Automated Claims Processing
Different insurers employ different techniques to handle claims. This white paper will use two
companies as examples and explain how they help the insurers in claims processing, powered by
artificial intelligence.
1. Tractable:
Tractable is a UK based start-up company that works with insurers to automate claims
processing. They have developed an artificial intelligence model by feeding in hundreds upon
thousands of insurance industry estimates and photos of damaged vehicles. There are currently
two programs developed by Tractable: (Tractable, 2018)

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 AI Review: In this program, the collision repairer uploads an estimate and pictures to the
company’s claims management system. AI Review compares the pictures and the
estimate, and accurately judges the cost of repair, preventing/minimizing claims leakage.
 AI Estimate: In this program, the policy holder sends the pictures of the damages to the
insurance company. AI Estimate understands the damage and predicts the cost of repair
in real time and helps the claims handler to make an instant decision, backed by strong
data and without the need of doing the initial analysis.
2. Claims Genius
Claims Genius is a US based AI Technology Company that provides help to insurers to
automate their claims process in different ways: (Claim Genius, 2018)
 Instantly and accurately assess the damage severity, determine whether it is a total loss or
a repairable one, and facilitate the rapid processing of damage claims
 Provides real time recommended salvage bids that salvage yards can submit to insurance
companies for consideration.
 If the vehicle can be repaired, the Claims Genius (CGI) platform can provide the
insurance companies a fully customized repair estimate by understanding severity of the
damage from images of the vehicle. CGI’s platform uses various techniques to recognize
the fingerprint of the photograph to detect frauds.
There are also other methods employed by different companies such as connected car
product that detects an impact and immediately alerts an insurer to a loss before the insured had
time to provide notification. The carrier has a chance to reach out to a customer and provide
support instantly. There is also a concept of “video chat” offered by a company named DropIn
where the startup offers insurers a first notice of loss through video. (Huetter, 2017)

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4.2 Future of Auto Claims
Companies, who have already automated some aspects of their claims processing system,
have seen a significant reduction in processing times and quality. AI-powered claims could also
fight against one of the most costly elements of the insurance industry: fraudulent claims, which
cost more than $40 billion a year. AI algorithms can be especially beneficial here to identify
patterns in the data and recognize when something is fraudulent. (Vartak, 2017)
By utilizing AI capabilities, an insurer can achieve improved services, increased
productivity and enriched customer experience. AI is helping insurers to improve efficiency and
optimize insurance claims processing. (Detlefs, 2017)
Ultimately, any measure taken by an insurer has to have one end goal: Attract new
customers and retain existing customers by delighting them with world-class service across all
customer touchpoints. AI-supported claims processing can enable insurers achieve this goal.
Conclusion
It is important to embrace the changes that are on the way and can act as potential disruptors.
Some of them are already here and for the rest it is a matter of time before the traditional
insurance model is disrupted. The auto insurance industry will survive, but what remains to be
seen is how the large insurance firms with old legacy systems and the medium and small
insurance companies with substantially lower capital react to the change. Technology is the
future and insurtech is here to stay and dominate.

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