Future Cities Africa Future proofing to climate, environment and natural resource challenges Supporting inclusive, resilient low carbon development Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA March 24th 2015

1. Future Cities Africa
Future proofing to climate, environment and natural resource
challenges
Supporting inclusive, resilient low carbon development
Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA
March 24th 2015
@peterheadCBE

2. __Climate, environment and natural
resource challenges
Contents
Section 1
Section 2 __ Global -Local Action to support
inclusive, resilient low carbon
development
Section 3 __ From observatory to collaboratory
__ Innovation in financing of inclusive,
resilient development
Section 4
Section 5 __ Demonstration regions and
knowledge sharing

3. 1. Climate, environment, natural
resource challenges

5. Our Shrinking Earth
population growing at 80m per year
1900
7.91
1950
5.15
1987
2.60
2005
2.02
2030
1.69
2050
1.44
YEAR
Hectares of Land Per Capita
USA 9.5 UK 5.8 China 2.3 India 1.3

6. ENTERING THE ECOLOGICAL AGE: Sustainable economic growth through a new paradigm of urban and rural development
Accra
Human development and ecological footprint

7. ENTERING THE ECOLOGICAL AGE: Sustainable economic growth through a new paradigm of urban and rural development
Low to middle income countries
Transition from agricultural to ecological age
A new paradigm of urban and rural development
with integrated urban-rural resource flows

8. 2. Global-local action to support
inclusive, resilient, low carbon
development

9. Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction 2015-2030
Promote the mainstreaming of disaster risk
assessments into land-use policy development
and implementation, including urban planning,
land degradation assessments and informal and
non-permanent housing, and the use of
guidelines and follow-up tools informed by
anticipated demographic and environmental
changes

10. Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction 2015-2030
Promote the mainstreaming of disaster risk
assessment, mapping and management into
rural development planning and management of
mountains, rivers, coastal flood plain areas,
drylands, wetlands and all other areas prone to
droughts and flooding

11. ACCRA CITY RESILIENCE 100 RESILIENT CITIES
The capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses,
and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what
kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience
AGING INFRASTRUCTURE
DISEASE OUTBREAK
FLOODING (COASTAL AND RAINFALL)
INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE
LACK OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING
POLLUTION OR ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGREDATION
SOCIAL INEQUITY

12. ENERGY WATER
FOOD RAW MATERIALS
ENERGY
Resource Efficiency
WATER
By 2030 world needs 30% more water, 40% more energy & 50% more food

13. 1. A Regional Approach
2. Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated
regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act
3. Uniting economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape
interventions with a common/credible economic analyses
Approach to Sustainable Regions-The Greater Metropolitan Area
Greenhouse
gases
Greenhouse
gases
Greenhouse
gases
Solid waste
Degraded waters
Manufactured goods
HINTERLAND
Manufactured goods
Fuels and
Raw materials
Water
Food
Housing

14. 3. From observatory to
collaboratory

15. Public
Sector
Geographies
Private
Sector
Research
NGO
&
Philanthropy
Silos
Sectors
TEST
The Decision
to
Create TEST

16. Earth
Simulator
Region Simulator
www.icesfoundation.orgwww.ecosequestrust.org

17. OASIS
Global ICES ESA
Insurance
Catastrophic Risk
Modelling

18. Licence Form
Region
Application name
Organisation
Partnership agreement
Technical support service

20. In the last twenty years, the world has
• Deployed a global, high-bandwidth network
• Created a population of over 1 billion Internet users
• And another population of some 6 billion mobile
telephones
• Embedded some billions of sensors in our
environment and infrastructure
• Invented globally-integrated business processes

21. Citizen science and smart communities
Observatory Collaboratory
Citizen sensing
Earth
observation
Awareness
Mapping
Design capability
Collaborative intelligence
Action for systems change
Investment and insurance
Adaptation & risk
mitigation
Improved quality of life
Support for R&D
EU- JRC
Data Common
Framework
Agreements and
Interoperability
Standards
Data repository

22. Data brokering framework linked to Systems Model Engine
Observatory Collaboratory

23. The system of community life

24. Syn City City resources IIER Economics
EFI Forestry PROFILE Soil-agriculture

25. Climate model
data

26. Earth observation and ground sensors
for land use data
Soil and
geology
PROFILE

27. Government data eg demographics, employment
Crowd-sourced agent Data – mobility 4G 5G 6G

28. Resource flows Sankey Diagrams

29. Integrated Sustainable
Infrastructure
transport
logistics and
waste
management
sewerage, potable
and non-potable
water energy
agriculture,

30. Economic Region
Social, Env,
Economic
Targets
Data Processor
Boundaries

31. Economic Region
Social, Env,
Economic
TargetsPower
Water Treatment
Industry
Mining
Building
cluster
Railway
BIM
IIMProcessor
Boundaries
Agriculture,
grassland
Forest
Data Processor
Boundaries
Energy
Water
Mass
goods
&minerals
Agents

32. Governance?
Managed by a social enterprise
Funded from the regional investment fund
Fund management by a community regional bank
Used free by public, private sectors, communities and NGO’s

33. Regional
collaborative
intelligence
Urban
Planning

34. Samartex Apartments, AccraOOA
World Bank / IFC Head office Accra
World Bank Head office, AccraCo-Arc -OOA- Arup
Samartex Apartments Accra
Samartex Apartments, AccraOOA
Standards for energy efficient higher quality
buildings and training to
design and build them
Samartex Apartments Accra
Samartex Apartments, AccraOOA

35. Transformation of a city economy through replacing
traffic with walking, cycling -Seoul

36. Investing 1% GDP per year ($40m) in
public transport rather than just building roads
including dedicated walking and cycling routes

37. 37
Education
On-line science, engineering, maths,
economics, social science,
politics, humanities
MOOCSline
Gaming
for school
children
Capacity building
and training

38. Ecology Health
Air Water Soil
Quality
Human Health
well-being nutrition,
life-span, healthcare
costs
Labour- skill, job
availability, salary,
productivity
Training & Education-
skill and knowledge
through learning and
education
Human agents
and their well-being
Economy
Asset
Value
Goods
High quality
Inclusive
resilient
growth
“Green, circular,
Knowledge
economy”

39. 4. Innovation in financing of
inclusive, resilient development

40. The Open-Source, Agent-based Urban-Rural
Resource and Economics Systems Platform Model

41. Output
Successful
improvement in
energy-water-food
security and quality of
life
“Project
portfolio”
Evidence-
based ‘trusted’
independent
model
Urban Development Fund for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’
‘Social Impact Bonds’
Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth
Funds
Return Investment
Assurance
“High quality inclusive
resilient growth”

42. 42
 Water management strategies including treatment of waste,
capture and recycling, swales and alternative land and flood
management. Also development of storage lakes and wetlands.
All aimed to create new jobs and improve water quality and
health and create leisure areas.
.

43. • Energy efficiency retrofit including lighting, appliances, building services,
industrial plant, water management to lower living costs and reduce fuel
poverty
• New ecological and affordable low carbon, resource efficient housing and
commercial mixed use developments which aim to improve urban and rural
economy and human health and quality of life.
Samartex Apartments, AccraOOA

44. 44
 Linking improved sanitation, water supply and energy needs.
Integrated utility systems including renewable energy, anaerobic
digestion of biomass (biogas and fertiliser), water treatment and
water re-use. Biogas for cooking and energy generation.

45. 45
Urban farming development including rooftops

46. • Forestry and rural biomass production for energy generation to reduce
dependency on fossil fuel power. Also local biofuel production for new
generations of farm and construction machinery. Overall demonstration of
carbon sinks in natural ecosystems

47. Waste management to reduce landfill and using all biomass from
urban- rural-forestry for energy and composting. Up-cycling of
waste for new products and the eco-fashion industry creating many
new jobs, also linked to community-led development

48. - Smart grid regional demonstration project linked to smart appliances,
electric car and vehicle use and renewable energy installations of PV and
wind.
Industrial symbiosis and remanufacturing
and re-use clusters in new industrial parks
with integrated utility systems.

49. 49
Introduction of consolidation centres and low carbon delivery methods
Consolidation
centres
Direct Deliveries
to Tenants/
Businesses
City
Consolidation
Centres
Drop off
Station if
Tenant is out
Tenants and
Businesses
Delivery vehicles
Inefficient
deliveries
Efficient
deliveries
Access control
•Low Emission Zone,
•Congestion Charge, etc
Electric Trucks
Electric Bikes

50. 5. Demonstration regions
and knowledge sharing

51. Target Trust Demonstrator Network
CHINA
NDRC
MOHURD
APEC
2 Eco Demo Regions
International Centre
Chongqing University
UK
Dorset LEP
IFS
DFID
Cities Alliance
Future Cities Africa
Accra
African Centre for
Cities
African Urban Research
Initiative
Mainland Europe
Denmark,
ICLEI GIZ Climate KIC-IFS
Global
UNEP
UN Habitat
UNDP
UNSDSN
UCCRN
Americas
Demo regions
Rio de Janeiro
USA city
Mongolia
2 Demo regions
UlaanBaatar
Gobi Region
UN ADB FCO

52. Knowledge sharing
Capacity building organisations, Universities, Research Institutes will play a
key role in supporting this research, development and education
opportunity locally and in EU and worldwide. Knowledge sharing in
demonstration regions and across Africa can be facilitated by Africa Urban
Research Initiative (ACC) and globally by UN University /Future Earth.

53. Prototype demonstration - scope

54. Future Cities Africa
World’s first demonstration of the functionality of the
resilience.io prototype model through a sector application in
Accra. The outputs highlight relevant resilient solutions and
inform policy and/or planning decision-making, investment
and links to SDGs.
Cities in Africa to become future proofed to climate,
environment and natural resource challenges, so that they
are inclusive and resilient, and have growing economies.
Output 3

55. Questions..