Presentation hold by Jean-François Maystadt, Researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), as part of the second panel of the 30th edition of the Brussels Briefing on “Agricultural resilience in the face of crisis and shocks", organized by CTA in collaboration with the ACP Secretariat, the EC/DEVCO, Concord, and IFPRI on 4th March 2013. More on: http://brusselsbriefings.net/

1. Brussels Briefing n. 30
Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks
4th March 2013
http://brusselsbriefings.net
Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa
Jean-Francois Maystadt, Researcher, IFPRI

2. Enhancing Resilience in the Horn
of Africa
CTA Brussels Briefing
Brussels, March 4, 2013
Jean-François Maystadt
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Center for Institutions and Economic Performance (LICOS)

3. Lack of resilience in the Horn?
(+) Traditional coping strategies (e.g. mobility)
(+) Livestock sector is a source of current wealth and a sector with potential
added value (e.g. exports to the Middle East)
(-) More severe and frequent shocks and stress (on limited amount of water)
(-) Restricted mobility due to a mix of population growth, fragmentation of
grazing lands and insecurity
(-) Conflict, poor governance , price volatility and lack of long-term donor
commitment
(-) Pastoralist populations in ASAL regions often politically and economically
neglected in terms of public investment
2011 drought: Relief efforts have saved lifes but have not sufficiently
increased the capacity to withstand future shocks and stresses
Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI
DP. Forthcoming in World Development.

4. Vicious cycle of violence?
Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009 Estimated food security conditions,
9/2011
Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012). Source: DFID(2012).

5. Vicious cycle in Somalia
Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does
Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.

6. Vicious cycle in Somalia (and Sudan)
TDI3 Cattle price Change in number
Scenario
change change of conflicts
Percent Percent Number Percent
Increase of TDI3 by one standard
32.6 –4.3 0.52 37.4
deviation
Increase of TDI3 by temperature rise
49.0 –6.8 0.80 58.3
according to IPCC A1B scenario
• Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia
• Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock
sector and resulting income changes
• Link between extreme weather shocks and violence also found in North
and South Sudan (work in progress)
• … Risk of violence is likely to magnify in the future …
• Unless urgent action to enhance resilience to shocks is taken
Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought
Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.

7. Enhancing resilience through a balanced development strategy
 Investment in pastoralist activities:
 Improved livestock resilience to drought: adoption of drought-resistant
animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and better access to
water but without disturbing the (well-functing) livestock value chain
 Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to markets,
insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes
 Support income diversification: Irrigation, Migration and Education
 Social Safety Net Program? What can we learn from Safety Net
Programmes to enhance resilience in the Horn of Africa?
Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP.
Forthcoming in World Development

8. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme
(PSNP)
• Between 1993 and 2004, the Government of Ethiopia launched near-
annual emergency appeals for food aid and other forms of emergency
assistance.
• These succeeded in averting mass starvation but:
– They did not banish the threat of further famine;
– They did not prevent asset depletion; and
– The ad hoc nature of these responses meant that the provision of emergency
assistance—often in the form of food-for-work programmes—was not
integrated into ongoing economic development activities.
• In other words, these responses did not build resilience

9. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme
(PSNP)
• PSNP began operating in 2005 (until 2014)
– Reaches approximately one million households; 7 million people annually
– EU is a major donor along with the USAID, World Bank, DfID, and a number of other
countries
• The PSNP “provides transfers to the food insecure population in
chronically food insecure woredas in a way that prevents asset depletion
at the household level and creates assets at the community level”
– It provides recipient with public works
– It also seeks to stimulate market development and rehabilitate the natural environment
• The PSNP is complemented by a program (now) called the “Household
Asset Building Programme” (HABP)
– Increased contact and coordination with agricultural extension services
– Improved access to credit

10. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:
Impact on food security
1
.2 .4 .6 .8
0
-.6 -.4 -.2
1 2 3 4 5
Years receiving payments for PSNP Public Works
Dose Response Low bound
Upper bound
Confidence Bounds at .95 % level
Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

11. Building resilience:
Change in food security for households experiencing 2+
droughts
Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

12. Building resilience:
Change in livestock for households experiencing 2+ droughts
Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

13. Building resilience at the household level
Change in food security Change in livestock
Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

14. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:
• Builds resilience at:
– Government and governance
– Natural resource management
– Household
• Impacts are larger when combined with the HABP. Why?
– Transfers provide both a safety net and working capital
– HABP provides technical expertise