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Are You
Guessing or
 Learning?
 Zach Nies, Rally Software
Chaotic
   Times
Win
By Out Learning
Learning
 Environments
Create
 Success
Feedback
     Loops
Queuing
Theory
Software Development
Feedback Loops
                                      ROI & Adoption



                                        Requests


                                         Defects



 Business   Prioritize &   Define &                    Test &   Harden &   Deploy &
  Case       Schedule      Develop                     Accept   Release    Support

                                  Collaborative
                                  Development

                                  Agile Lifecycle
                                  Management
Don’t Make Me
Guess
Group Learning
            Collaboration




      AND
Kids Are
Built to Learn
Adults Require
Reflection to Learn
Group
Retrospectives
INDIVIDUALS
   INTERACTIONS
     AND




 (          PROCESSES
     OVER




            AND TOOLS
WORKING
    SOFTWARE

(                  )
       COMPREHENSIVE



OVER
       DOCUMENTATION
CUSTOMER
COLLABORATION


(          CONTRACT      )
    OVER




           NEGOTIATION
RESPONDING
     CHANGE
TO




          (                )
                     FOLLOWING


              OVER
                     A PLAN
Self-organizing
TEAMS

 Determine Team
 Agreements

 Make Commitments


 Check-in Daily
INSPECT
      ADAPT



AND
Respect

          For
People
Lean
Thinking and Tools
Five
Whys?
Fishbone, Pareto
A3 Process
PMO
                         Shall:
Create standards
Enforce standards through audits
Report on standards
Manage risk with governance
Reward conformance
Agile PMO
                            Focus


Create burning visibility
Facilitate up      across down
Evangelize Enterprise Agile
Guide Flow, Pull, and Innovate
MIT Beer
     Game
Players of the game each take on a different role in the supply chain:
Factory, Distributor, Wholesaler and Retailer

For each period of play, every participant follows the same cycle:
1. New orders and shipments are received, shipments enrouteare advanced, and
   inventory levels and backorder positions are calculated.
2. The player reviews current position.
3. A shipping decision is made according to new orders and backlog, subject to
   inventory availability.
4. An ordering decision is made for more beer.

There are only two costs involved in this simplified version:
Inventory holding cost ($1.00/case/period).
Back order costs ($2.00/case/period).

Goal is to minimizing the sum of these costs by balancing the cost of having
  inventory (inventory holding cost) with the cost of being out of inventory
  when a customer orders beer (back order cost).
The game begins with a fully-loaded quot;pipelinequot; of cases of beer:
16 cases of inventory in each position'scurrent inventory,
4 cases in each of theproduction delaypipeline,
4 cases in each of theshipping delaypipeline,
each position has an initial order for 4 cases of beer.

At the end of the game, the total game cost is the sum of the four individual
participants' total costs (retailer cost + wholesaler cost + distributor cost +
factory cost).

The goal is to minimize team costs.
CALL

                    TO
ACTION

Schedule a Retrospective
Create a Continuous Improvement
Backlog

Put You and Your Team in a
Position to Succeed

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Are You Guessing or Learning? Project Management in Chaotic Times

  • 1. Are You Guessing or Learning? Zach Nies, Rally Software
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Chaotic Times
  • 12. Feedback Loops
  • 14. Software Development Feedback Loops ROI & Adoption Requests Defects Business Prioritize & Define & Test & Harden & Deploy & Case Schedule Develop Accept Release Support Collaborative Development Agile Lifecycle Management
  • 16. Group Learning Collaboration AND
  • 20. INDIVIDUALS INTERACTIONS AND ( PROCESSES OVER AND TOOLS
  • 21. WORKING SOFTWARE ( ) COMPREHENSIVE OVER DOCUMENTATION
  • 22. CUSTOMER COLLABORATION ( CONTRACT ) OVER NEGOTIATION
  • 23. RESPONDING CHANGE TO ( ) FOLLOWING OVER A PLAN
  • 24. Self-organizing TEAMS Determine Team Agreements Make Commitments Check-in Daily
  • 25. INSPECT ADAPT AND
  • 26. Respect For People
  • 30. PMO Shall: Create standards Enforce standards through audits Report on standards Manage risk with governance Reward conformance
  • 31. Agile PMO Focus Create burning visibility Facilitate up across down Evangelize Enterprise Agile Guide Flow, Pull, and Innovate
  • 32. MIT Beer Game
  • 33. Players of the game each take on a different role in the supply chain: Factory, Distributor, Wholesaler and Retailer For each period of play, every participant follows the same cycle: 1. New orders and shipments are received, shipments enrouteare advanced, and inventory levels and backorder positions are calculated. 2. The player reviews current position. 3. A shipping decision is made according to new orders and backlog, subject to inventory availability. 4. An ordering decision is made for more beer. There are only two costs involved in this simplified version: Inventory holding cost ($1.00/case/period). Back order costs ($2.00/case/period). Goal is to minimizing the sum of these costs by balancing the cost of having inventory (inventory holding cost) with the cost of being out of inventory when a customer orders beer (back order cost).
  • 34.
  • 35. The game begins with a fully-loaded quot;pipelinequot; of cases of beer: 16 cases of inventory in each position'scurrent inventory, 4 cases in each of theproduction delaypipeline, 4 cases in each of theshipping delaypipeline, each position has an initial order for 4 cases of beer. At the end of the game, the total game cost is the sum of the four individual participants' total costs (retailer cost + wholesaler cost + distributor cost + factory cost). The goal is to minimize team costs.
  • 36. CALL TO ACTION Schedule a Retrospective Create a Continuous Improvement Backlog Put You and Your Team in a Position to Succeed

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Gaussian Copula
  2. Federal Reserve Act of December 23, 1913
  3. Finally, the team does a retrospective and discusses three questions:
  4. Finally, the team does a retrospective and discusses three questions:
  5. Finally, the team does a retrospective and discusses three questions:
  6. So we hold a daily scrum. It’s a simple meeting where we answer three basic questions:
  7. Finally, the team does a retrospective and discusses three questions:
  8. Finally, the team does a retrospective and discusses three questions: