9. RIM – Semi Quantitative
Identification
Analysis
Performance
1
Risk Identification
3
Loss Scenario
Development
2
Risk Tolerance
Criteria
4
Initiating Event
Likelihood
5
Assessment
Exposure Profile
Monitoring
|
|
Layers of Protection
7
Risk Estimation and
comparison
8
6
Cost – Benefit
Analysis
25.10.2013
10. CBA
(Kz/ fpm - K fpm )´ Fi ´ Pc > K fpm
K z/ fpm
= cost of incident/event without measure
K fpm
= cost of incident with measure
Fi
Pc
K fpm
= frequency of incident occurance
= probability of control
= cost of measure (capex & opex)
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25.10.2013
13. Case XYZ (example)
General
• Total area + 30 000 m2
• Storage of high valuable goods
Layers of protection
• Prevention programme
• Automatic detection & alarm
• First response team
• Community fire service
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|
25.10.2013
14. Case Warehouse : Damage Exposure
Damage Exposure
Loss of Warehouse
5 000 k€
Loss of Content
50 000 k€
Business Loss
65 000 k€
Total Potential Loss
120 000 k€
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|
25.10.2013
21. Cost of improvement
Upgrade FRT
Cost/yr
Additional Trained Resource
75 k€
Improve Training Program of Team
25 k€
Improve Procedures
20 k€
Total per year
110 k€
Automatic Suppression
Capex
900 k€
55 k€
Opex
25 k€
Total Per Year
80 k€
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25.10.2013
24. Cause-and-effect
Cause
Materials
Checklist / Check Sheet
Effect
Task / Process Step
Consolidated
Count
Repe
at
Mon. Tues. Wed.
Thu.
Fri.
Sat.
Sun.
Process 1
Methods
1. Task Description
D
2. Task Description
D
3. Task Description
AN
4. Task Description
D
<Val
ue>
<Val
ue>
Process 2
1. Task Description
D
2. Task Description
Type of Error / Reason
AN
3. Task Description
D
Count
Mon.
Tues.
1. Description of Type
////
//
2. Description of Type
//
<Val
ue>
Total
Score
Wed.
Thu.
Fri.
//
//// //
//// /
22
//
…
///
///
//// /
16
…
3. Description of Type
Manpower
////
/
////
//// /
//// //
23
4. Description of Type
//// /
///
////
//
///
19
16
9
13
18
22
80
…
Machinery
…
…
Total Errors
Site A
Cause-and-effect
Cause-and-effect
Cause
Materials
Checklist / Check Sheet
Effect
Task / Process Step
Checklist / Check Sheet
Count
Repe
at
Mon. Tues. Wed.
Thu.
Fri.
Sat.
Sun.
Process 1
Methods
1. Task Description
D
2. Task Description
D
3. Task Description
AN
4. Task Description
D
<Val
ue>
<Val
ue>
Process 2
1. Task Description
Mon.
Tues.
D
<Val
ue>
Total
Score
Wed.
Thu.
Fri.
//
//// //
//// /
22
//
///
//// /
16
/
////
//// /
//// //
23
//// /
///
////
//
///
19
16
9
13
18
22
80
////
//
2. Description of Type
//
///
3. Description of Type
////
4. Description of Type
Machinery
AN
3. Task Description
Count
1. Description of Type
Manpower
D
2. Task Description
Type of Error / Reason
…
…
…
…
…
Total Errors
Site B
| 24 |
21.08.2012
25. Why FPC
• Independent –
+ 40 years of experience
FPC aims to find the optimal balance between
a company’s risk profile and the required level
of safety, backed up by periodic audit cycles to
monitor change.
• Specialised people –
engineered solutions
• International expertise –
local knowledge
• Pragmatic approach –
innovative methods
|
|
www.safetycentre.eu
www.fpc.be
Hinweis der Redaktion
An approach to regulatory decisionmaking, in which insights from probabilistic risk assessment are considered with other engineering insights. Purpose is to give you all an appetite for risk informed dm
Present a method & rationale to support costeffectivedecesion-making based on unique risk factors of a facility.The gods are stillsounkind as todenyusknowledge of what the futureholds but we have made twogiant steps :BetterunderstandlikelihoodLearning howto manage consequences
Depending on the companysactivitiesWhentalkingcompany’s have to deal with different kinds of risks. We focus
We have tobecause we have to. Compliance driven : completelyguidedby . Don’t have a safety culture embedded… Loss of life potententialWhy do we as a society and company invest in risk protection : tosafeguardloss of life, to picture risk : toprevent, reputation
Different element definecompanyies risk profile.Every companyand facility has unique risk factors based. Neardefine the risk unique : duetolocation , culture , etc… Every company, communty. Deal withanotherfire brigade. A large corperationwith multiple or even identical sites distributes
Today we will focus on mitigatie … but integrated approach Where do we invest /andhowmuch. Balancedexcersie..Prevention, security gates etc…Logisticfullyautomated
Youalways have to accept a certain risk – in otherwordsyoucannot design for zero risk. Ifnot we wouldall live in bunkers, wichwouldnotbemuch
Mc kinney. A cost benefit analysis. Probability of event occurence is set out Giveslimited Riks Up to C5 with off site concequences. It does notgiveusany information on the layers of protectionrequired .
Do we needtoconsider a security risk,what is tolerable ??? Risk identification, loss scenario event tree analysis. Allowstoprovide information, notonlyabout the potential risk exposure but alsoabout the layers of your . Whatif, hozop
Scientiifcformula . When is theimplementation of a safetymeasurecosteffective? What information
Risk identification, hazop or whatif analysis : loss scenario event tree analysis. Allowstoprovide information, notonlyabout the potential risk exposure but alsoabout the layers of your
Layer of protectionsOnly way to do cost benefit We look at scenario’s andcost, layers . The green path is a probabiliy of sc
Cases todemonstrate the use of the method
Notlooking at life safety.
Onceevery 15 years. Soporbabblytwice over the lifetime of the asset. No risk to life safety but property & bus con Half open struture, potetntial . Serious risk potenti
Score card FRT. We improve on training & resource
Canaloswork onreducingfrequency of fireoccurence
No organisation
Method answers the key questions about the number and strength of protectionlayersbyproviding rational, semiquantitative, risk-based answers,reducingemotionalism,providingclarityandconsistency,documenting the basis of the decision,facilitating understanding among plant personnel.