The CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, with the Environmental Change Institute, gave this presentation on enhancing climate resilience of food production in the Greater Mekong.

1. Greater
Mekong
Forum
on
Water,
Food
and
Energy
21-­‐23
October
2015
Phnom
Penh
-­‐
Cambodia

2. Session
19.
Enhancing
Climate
Resilience
of
Food
Produc7on
in
the
Greater
Mekong

3. ●
What
frightens,
concerns
or
otherwise
worries
you
about
the
future
of
the
Greater
Mekong
region?
●
What
is
the
most
important
driver
of
changes?
●
What
is
the
most
uncertain
factors
about
the
future
of
this
region?

4. Scenarios
for
Climate
Change
and
Agriculture
• The
largest
socio-­‐
economic
and
climate
scenarios
Program
in
the
world!
• Stakeholder-­‐driven;
quanHfied
through
agricultural
economic
models;
linked
to
IPCC
community’s
Shared
Socio-­‐
economic
Pathways
• With
240
partner
organisaJons

5. 1.
A
Understanding
the
Big
Picture

6. 1.B
Understanding
the
big
picture
• Increasing
climaHc
unpredictability
exacerbates
all
pressures
on
the
agricultural
producHon
systems
of
countries
in
the
Greater
Mekong.
• Together
with
populaHon
growth,
tensions
over
fresh
water,
energy
challenges,
land
uses
changes,
urbanizaHon,
diversificaHon
of
livelihoods;
the
greater
Mekong
region
is
facing
major
and
unprecedented
challenges.
• There
are
serious
concerns
about
the
capacity
to
ensure
food
security
to
all,
provide
affordable
food
without
hampering
natural
resources
in
the
context
of
populaHon
growth
and
under
climate
change.

7. Adapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships
and policies for:
1. Adaptation to Progressive
Climate Change
2. Adaptation through Managing
Climate Risk
3. Pro-poor Climate Change
Mitigation
Improved
Environmental
Health Improved
Rural
Livelihoods Improved
Food Security
Enhanced adaptive capacity
in agricultural, natural
resource management, and
food systems
Trade-offs and Synergies
4. Integration for Decision Making
• Linking Knowledge with Action
• Assembling Data and Tools for
Analysis and Planning
• Refining Frameworks for Policy
Analysis
2.
The
CCAFS
Framework
CCAFS
Scenarios

8. 3. What are scenarios?
• Scenarios
are
mulHple,
“what
if?”
stories
about
the
future,
expressed
in
words,
through
simulaHon
models,
in
visuals
–
originally
from
the
private
sector
&
military
• Scenarios
can
be
used
to
explore
different
direcJons
of
change
–
in
climate,
markets,
governance
and
other
key
factors
• Scenarios
are
not
predicHons
• Scenarios
are
a
tool
for
tesJng
strategies,
they
are
not
strategies
themselves
–
they
represent
contexts
• TesHng
plans
at
local,
district,
naHonal
levels

9. 4. Scenarios: why useful?
• Work
with
future
uncertainHes
in
concrete
and
engaging
manner
(Vervoort
et
al.
2012)
• IdenHfy
and
frame
contextual
challenges
• IdenHfy
insHtuHonal
vulnerabiliJes
• Test
and
develop
policies
• Test
innovaJons
• Build
networks
• Public
engagement
and
awareness
raising

10. A
B
C
D
A1
B1
C1
D1
A2
B2
C2
D2
A3
B3
C3
D3
FACTORS,
STATES
COMPATIBILITY
B1
B2
B3
A1
2
0
1
A2
1
1
1
A3
2
0
2
SCENARIOS
(A2,B2,C2,D1)
(A1,B3,C1,D3)
(A3,B3,C2,D3)
100’s
REPRESENTATIVE
SCENARIOS
(A2,B2,C2,D1)
(A1,B3,C1,D3)
(A3,B3,C2,D3)
10000’s
of
ways,
diverse
set
of
4
(A2,B1,C2,D1)
4
regional
Scenarios
MATLAB
program
(OLDFAR)
5.
Methods

12. Aging
popula7on
start
to
be
a
major
problem
2015
2030
2050
SEA
Central
bank
Common
Labor
policy
for
free
movement
High
producHon
and
product
quality
Sustainable
Crops
producHon
Becer
health
system
MigraHon
of
low
income
country/
young
labor
force
Educated
and
environmental
consciousness
Major
posiHve
poliHcal
changes
in
Viet
Nam
and
Laos
PosiHve
PoliHcal
changes
in
Cambodia
More
recreaHonal
faciliHes
in
urban
and
rural
areas
Landscape
planning
Strong
collaboraHon
with
internaHonal
universiHes
Common
currency
Agriculture
represents
less
than
10%of
the
GDP
Lower
rural
populaJon
with
higher
living
standard
Top
local
universiJes-­‐
internaJonal
standard
lead
Full
DemocraJc
governments
Improved
and
balanced
landscape
with
more
forests
Cleaner
and
sustainable
ciJes
All
people
have
affordable
access
to
adequate
supplies
of
safe
water
and
food
Adequate
energy
policy
Cleaner
and
safer
water
Regional
Agreement
on
hydropower
power/
dams
management
Laws
on
protecHon
for
river
banks
Improved
and
enforced
land
protecHon
law
Increased
new
technology,
adaptaHon
towards
soil
improvement
ConservaHon
agriculture
pracHces
increased
Land
consolidaHon
and
mechanized
agriculture
Open
Market
Higher
educaHon
demand
EliminaHon
of
trade
barriers
Improved
educaHon
policies
AdaptaHon
innovaHon
driven
by
the
farmers
Fragmented
land,
low
quality
Public,
Private
investment
in
educaHon
Lower
level
of
poverty
absolute
Sustainable
farming
systems
in
sloping
lands
Investment
in
new
products
organic
agriculture
Increased
naHonal
remicance
No
travel
restricHon
Increased
law
enforcement
SEA
Common
cerHfied
quality
product
Social
conflicts
massive
natural
disasters
in
the
region
Regional
bio-­‐security
standard
20%
reducHon
of
agriculture
land
Middle
class
empowered
and
educated
Becer
access
to
finance
to
rural
populaHon
agriculture
pracHces
changes
Increased
Infrastructure
investment
ReforestaH
on
of
mountains
areas
Becer
roads,
irrigaHon
systems
in
the
rural
areas

13. 6. Scenarios for socio-economic and climate futures:
Regional and National scales

14. Factors
Markets
Enforcement
capacity
and
regional
collaboraJon
Agricultural
investment
Land
degradaJon
through
land
use
change
Land
of
the
Golden
Mekong
Common
regulated
market
Strong
enforcement
and
strong
regional
collaboraHon
High
public
and
private
Low
Buffalo,
Buffalo
Unregulated
Weak
enforcement
and
weak
regional
collaboraHon
Unbalanced:
high
private
investment
in
business
and
research
High
The
Doreki
Dragon
Common
regulated
market
Strong
enforcement
and
strong
regional
collaboraHon
Unbalanced:
high
private
investment
in
business
and
research
High
Tigers
on
the
Train
ProtecHonism
and
closed
market
Strong
enforcement
and
strong
regional
collaboraHon
Low
public
and
private
Low
Four
scenarios
for
Southeast
Asia

15. In
this
scenario,
the
ASEAN-­‐facilitated
development
of
a
regional
market
and
the
increasingly
effec7ve
poli7cal
focus
on
big
business
in
all
sectors,
including
agriculture,
drives
significant
change.
GMOs
become
the
norm
and
are
no
longer
excepNonal
–
it’s
all
just
“food”.
Agricultural
industrialisaNon
develops
to
the
degree
that
agriculture,
while
a
massive
source
of
growth,
is
almost
no
longer
recognizable
as
such.
Smallholder
famers
struggle
more
than
ever,
and
very
oWen
fail,
to
maintain
a
livelihood
–
many
become
workers
on
highly
industrial
farms.
UrbanisaNon
is
high.
Environmental
degradaNon
and
natural
land
conversion
are
extreme.
Food
security
for
the
poor
is
very
low,
though
food
safety
is
stringent.
The
different
societal
classes
are
more
divided
than
ever
in
terms
of
climate
resilience
with
climate
impacts
being
made
significantly
worse
due
to
large-­‐scale
manipula7on
of
the
natural

16. In
this
scenario
we
start
out
in
2013
looking
up.
ASEAN
agreements
appear
to
be
going
ahead.
Myanmar
is
starNng
to
produce
more
and
be
more
economically
acNve.
Moving
to
2020
we
start
to
see
more
problems:
there
are
major
corrup7on
scandals
that
greatly
weaken
na7onal
governments.
High
oil
and
food
prices
due
to
global
as
well
as
local
situaNon
and
increased
demand
for
biofuels
increases
pressure
for
private
sector
to
acquire
land
–
increasing
pressure
on
populaNon
that
is
dependent
on
farming
for
their
living.
Logging
concessions
to
private
industry
lead
to
massive
deforesta7on.
Environmental
change
creates
incredible
regional
tensions.
ASEAN
closes
borders
and
coopera7on
between
countries
is
lost.
Food
producNon
is
significantly
decreased
–
migraNon
and
conflicts
increase.2050
sees
a
situaNon
of
unsustainable
agricultural
intensificaNon.
There
is
a
big
plantaNon
sector,
greater
emphasis
on
processed
foods,
but
only
the
rich
people
in
the
country
can
afford
it.
There
is
huge
environmental
degradaNon.
Social
conflict
is
rampant.
Local
governance
and
civil
society
at
Nmes
make
some
progress
in
solving
problems,
but
they
cannot
overcome
the
overall
declining
situaNon.

17. This
scenario
sees
Southeast
Asia
becoming
increasingly
collabora7ve
regionally
but
also
protec7onist
with
regard
to
outside
economic
influences
from
China
and
other
global
actors.
Riding
on
a
Nme
of
high
food
prices
in
the
first
decades
of
the
scenario,
the
region
manages
to
use
investments
in
agriculture
that
are
not
by
themselves
extremely
high
very
effecNvely.
The
highly
controlled
region
develops
its
focus
from
primary
produc7on
more
to
agricultural
processing,
and
eventually
away
from
agriculture
and
toward
industrialisa7on.
ProtecNonist
economic
policies
cause
tensions
with
China
and
the
need
for
conNnued
negoNaNons.
By
2050,
some
deep
issues
with
the
protecNonist
policies
threaten
to
cripple
the
regional
economy.
In
terms
of
climate
resilience,
this
increased
economic
fragility
threatens
food
security
for
the
poorest
who
have
felt
the
consequences
of
the
shiW
away
from
agricultural
development
in
recent
decades.

18. Land of the Golden Mekong
In
this
scenario,
unifica7on
of
Southeast
Asia
in
terms
of
poli7cal,
economic
and
environmental
concerns
slowly
becomes
a
reality.
Though
challenges
around
urbanisaNon
and
migraNon
iniNally
increase,
ulNmately
insNtuNons
become
effecNve
enough
to
enable
improved
development
and
environmental
management.
Aging
populaNons
and
the
lack
of
labour
due
to
egalitarianism
become
a
problem
–
migrants
from
poorer
countries
replace
the
regional
popula7on
in
the
working
class
but
are
shunned
and
abused.
Strength
and
inclusiveness
of
governance
(at
least
for
the
autochthonic
populaNon)
is
the
key
source
of
the
significant
change
in
food
security,
livelihoods
and
environments
that
can
be
observed.
Climate
resilience
is
strong
in
that
respect,
though
biophysical
vulnerabiliNes
remain
significant,
especially
in
the
form
of
extreme
events
that
sNll
someNmes
overwhelm
the
region’s
adapNve
capacity.
The
migrants
become
the
most
vulnerable
groups.

19. Land
of
the
Golden
Mekong
summary
of
quanJtaJve
results:
• As
incomes
increase,
demand
for
agricultural
commodiHes
goes
up.
• Investments
in
yield
increase
producHon
to
respond
to
regional
and
global
demand.
• There
are
strong
pressures
for
land
expansion
due
to
regional
and
global
demand,
so
this
has
to
be
moderated
by
policies
on
land
use.
• Prices
for
rice,
maize
and
beef
drop
due
to
increased
yields
and
agricultural
expansion.
• Calorie
availability
per
capita
increases
on
the
whole;
though
this
may
hide
inequaliHes
between
demographic
groups.

21. Biodiversity:
projected
change
in
suitable
habitat,
2005
-­‐ 2050
Ecosystem
Functions:
projected
change
in
provision,
2005
-­‐ 2050
Cambodia
Laos
Vietnam
Thailand
Cambodia
Laos
Vietnam
Thailand
Legend
Country boundaries
Watersheds
Change: 2005 - 2050
High decrease
Medium decrease
Low decrease
Increase
Figure
4:
Projected
change
in
suitable
habitat
for
biodiversity
and
ecosystem
funcHon
provision
under
the
Land
of
the
Golden
Mekong
scenario
by
watershed

22. • Under
this
scenario,
there
is
a
significant
increase
in
pasture
area,
parJcularly
to
the
west
of
lake
Tonle
Sap
increasing
already
exisJng
pasture
areas.
The
total
area
of
cropland
remains
roughly
the
same
and
urban
areas
expand
to
nearly
double
the
current
extent.
Only
a
marginal
area
of
forest
is
lost.
• Figure
4
shows
the
resulHng
changes
in
biodiversity
and
ecosystem
funcHon
provision
under
this
scenario
by
watershed.
The
increases
in
pasture
around
Tonle
Sap
cause
a
high
decrease
in
biodiversity
whereas
some
small
gains
are
observed
in
the
adjacent
watershed
to
the
east.
This
is
mostly
the
result
of
former
cropland
being
converted
into
pasture
which
provides
habitat
to
more
species.
Overall
most
watersheds
show
a
loss
in
biodiversity
and
ecosystem
funcHon
provision
with
broadly
similar
spaHal
pacerns.

23. What
does
it
means?
• There
are
mulHple
futures
for
the
Greater
Mekong
• What
will
be
the
future
of
Food
and
Agriculture
in
the
region
in
35
years?
• What
are
the
legal
and
normaHve
frameworks
that
are
protecHng
the
livelihood
of
the
farmers?
The
ecosystem?
• Do
we
understand
the
big
pictures
and
the
impact
on
the
food
system?
Does
Countries
of
the
GM
understand
value
chain
and
food
trading?
• Do
we
have
smart
investments
and
robust
policies?
• It
is
as
much
about
the
producHon
and
the
demand..
Zooming
to
the
consumers!

24. CLIMATE SMART VILLAGE
Knowledge
smart
• Farmer-­‐farmer
learning
• Community
seed
and
fodder
banks
• Market
info
• Off-­‐farm
risk
management
Nitrogen
smart
• Site
specific
nutrient
management
• Precision
ferHlizers
• Catch
cropping
/
legumes
Carbon
smart
• Agroforestry
• ConservaHon
Hllage
• Land
use
systems
• Livestock
management
Water
smart
• Aquifer
recharge
• Rainwater
harvesHng
• Community
management
of
water
• Laser
leveling
• On-­‐farm
water
management
Weather
smart
• Weather
forecasts
• ICT
based
agro-­‐
advisories
• Index
based
insurance
• Climate
analogues
Energy
smart
• Biofuels
• Fuel
efficient
engines
• Residue
management
• Minimum
Hllage
Key
IntervenJons
in
a
Climate-­‐
Smart
Village

25. EvaluaJng
innovaJons
Look
at
the
technology
soluHons
just
introduced
and
test
them
against
different
scenarios
What
did
you
develop,
noHce,
feel,
or
learn?
So,
what
are
the
implicaHons
for
scenario
based
learning
in
your
own
work?
Now,
what
lingering
uncertainHes,
quesHons
or
curiosiHes
do
you
have?
What
acHons
are
suggested
next
for
you?
Focus
on
how
these
technologies
and
soluJons
provide
adapJve
capability
regardless
of
the
future
scenario

26. ReporJng
on
the
robustness
What
are
the
strengths
and
benefits
of
these
adapHve
measures?
What
opportuniHes
or
possibiliHes
do
you
see
for
implemenHng
and
scaling
these
innovaHons
in
your
own
work?
What
challenges
or
obstacles
do
you
anHcipate
in
spreading
these
technology
soluHons?
(
confronHng
to
mulHple
futures)
What
other
key
technologies,
services,
or
innovaHons
do
you
see
for
increasing
the
robustness
of
the
regional
response
to
these
scenarios?