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Reading In The Future:
Defining The
Seasonality Pattern for
OECD Countries
By:
Mohammed Salem Awad
Corporate Planning Director
28-29 Aug. 2022 Cairo Egypt

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Outline
Introduction
Forecasting Model / Previous Work
Electricity Generated
World
CECD
Data Reported – Source of Electrical Generated
Analysis – Defining the Seasonality
Results
Summary

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Introduction
In terms of setting goals and targets, we need to forecast.
Depend on our aim, objective, the right approach is
implemented.
Forecasting is a powerful tool for planning, and the good
forecast will reflects the highest R- square. (Goodness of fit)
The time span for analysis, can be a day, week, bi-weekly,
month, quarter and Year. Depend on the level of analysis.
OCED countries are published their Data on the net.
The best term to study and predict is
Electricity Generation

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Forecasting Model

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Previous Work
Concept

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Electricity Generated 2021

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a

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Electricity Generated 2021
Source: (BGR):the Federal Institute for
Geosciences and Natural Resources.

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Electricity Generated 2021

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Basic Data
Last Update
May 2022

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Analysis
Analysis
Result
Goodness of Fit
Growth
Electricity

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Electricity

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Oil and Petroleum Products

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Solar

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Wind

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Hydro

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Nuclear

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Natural Gas

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Geothermal

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Coal, Peat and Manufactured Gases

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Combustible Renewable

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Total Combustible Fuel
0.00

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Total Renewable

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Results
The Result shows most
the sources have
positive trends except
Nuclear and Hydro.
Most of the sources are
fairly fitted, in spite of
some lower values of R-
square.

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Summary
The study shows the applicability to define the seasonality pattern
of OECD.
Only two seasons only impact the results i.e Summer Season and
winter season.
To what level the Electricity Generation should supplied, this is
define by the setting target that define by the seasonality model.
Solar Energy has a clear a pattern to reflect the seasonality, it is
reflect a clear operation for those who use it.
Solar and wind as a source of electricity represent only 10 % from
the world Electricity Generation.

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Thank You