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Ken Weinberg, Director of Water Resources
Supply/Demand Analysis and Scenario Planning
Evaluation Thresholds and Decision Metrics
Baseline System Performance
Storage Utilization Analysis
New Supply and Conveyance Options (Long-Term)
Recommended Near-Term System Improvements
In-Line Hydroelectric Opportunities
Project Costs & Supply/Conveyance Comparisons (MWD Rates)
CEQA Process
Selection of Preferred Project List
2
 Demand Uncertainty and Sensitivity
◦ Conducted sensitivity using SANDAG
Series 13 population forecast
◦<5% in 2035 lower than UWMP
 Role of Storage
◦ Connected surface water storage
is optimized for regional and local
management of supplies
◦ Increasing connected regional
Storage limited by infrastructure
constraints and supply availability
3
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
RegionalStorageCapacity
Dead Pool
Emergency
Pool
Carryover
Pool
Local
Operations
Pool
Not Connected
to Aqueducts
Miramar
Otay
Perdue
Levy
Alvarado
Twin Oaks Valley
100 MGD
Escondido/Vista ID
Poway
Badger
Olivenhain
Weese
Untreated Water Delivery System Conveyance Constraints
4
Future System Capacity
Constraint - Pipelines 3 and 5
(beyond 2020)
Existing / Future System
Capacity Constraint – Serving
South County WTPs
Crossover Pipeline to serve
WTP (beyond 2025)
SV Pump Station
(to optimize storage use)
5
5%
25%
10%
Lines represent % of traces (frequency)
Urban Water Management Plan Scenario (Expected)
45 days
60 days
90 days
120 days
50% 75%
6
5%
25%
10%
Lines represent % of traces (frequency)
Maximum Local Scenario (IPR and Other Local Projects)
45 days
60 days
90 days
120 days
50%
75%
7
5%
25%
10%
Lines represent % of traces (frequency)
Urban Water Management Plan Scenario (Expected)
45 days
60 days
90 days
120 days
50%
 Measuring System Performance
◦ Untreated Water Constraint
 Additional untreated water conveyance capacity at MWD
delivery point
 2020 to 2025 time frame
◦ Internal system bottlenecks need to be addressed
 South County untreated water service
 Immediate need to expand capacity – temporary repair
insufficient
 Review timing/scope of other long-term improvements
◦ Need for new supply development is 2025-30 or later
 Dependent on local supply development & conservation
8
Project Purpose Prelim Estimated Cost
New 30-inch South
County Intertie*
Alleviate conveyance
bottleneck south of Alvarado
$6,000,000
Pipeline 3/4
Conversion
Address untreated water
conveyance constraint at
MWD delivery point
~$220,000,000
(includes MWD portion)
North County ESP
Pump Station
Meet ESP treated water
delivery needs
$21,563,000
Construct as Defined
Project Purpose Estimated Cost
Mission Trails Suite of
projects
Increase untreated water conveyance
to serve South County WTPs.
(*May replace 30-in. intertie)
$63,917,000
Regulatory Storage
Provide operational storage for
increased deliveries
$55,650,000
Third Pump San
Vicente PS
Meet ESP, Carryover Storage needs $8,044,000
Revise Scope, Size and Timing (May Decrease Cost)
Project Purpose Estimated Cost
Pipeline 6
(Water Authority
Facility)
Address untreated water
delivery constraint at MWD
delivery point
$480,000,000
Second Crossover
Pipeline
Address untreated water
delivery constraint s/o Twin
Oaks
$371,041,000
Other Facilities
Flow Controls and Pipeline
Rehab (LMSE)
$20,000,000
Current CIP Budget Delay Beyond 2030
10
 June 25th Meeting with Member Agency TAC
◦ Reviewed cost and technical data
◦ Comments and input on selecting a preferred list of projects for CEQA analysis
 Comprehensive evaluation of proposed projects and
modifications to current CIP
◦ Integrating long-term supply options into analysis
◦ Project cost estimates and comparison to future imported water costs
◦ Opportunities for in-line hydroelectric generation
◦ Analysis of reliability improvements
 Decision matrix on project timing
◦ Dependency on Member Agency actions
◦ No regrets actions
◦ Timing of future Water Authority Board decision
11
12
July 11, 2013 Special Meeting of the Water Planning Committee – Review
draft Master Plan document, project costs, and rate impacts
and draft Staff Recommended alternative for PEIR analysis
July 25, 2013 Water Planning Committee – Board input for final
preparation of the draft Master Plan, Committee
consideration of Staff Recommended Preferred List of
Projects for analysis in PEIR
August 2013 Water Planning Committee – Board input and direction for
Final preparation of Climate Action Plan and PEIR
September 2013 Release Draft Master Plan, CAP, and PEIR for member agency
and public review and comment
October 2013-
January 2014
Water Planning Committee- Updates and Informational
reports on progress of Draft Master Plan and Program EIR
February 2014 Regular Board Meeting - Certification of Final PEIR and
approval of Final Master Plan and CAP.
Wp   [final]master plan may 16 workshop summary

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Wp [final]master plan may 16 workshop summary

  • 1. Ken Weinberg, Director of Water Resources
  • 2. Supply/Demand Analysis and Scenario Planning Evaluation Thresholds and Decision Metrics Baseline System Performance Storage Utilization Analysis New Supply and Conveyance Options (Long-Term) Recommended Near-Term System Improvements In-Line Hydroelectric Opportunities Project Costs & Supply/Conveyance Comparisons (MWD Rates) CEQA Process Selection of Preferred Project List 2
  • 3.  Demand Uncertainty and Sensitivity ◦ Conducted sensitivity using SANDAG Series 13 population forecast ◦<5% in 2035 lower than UWMP  Role of Storage ◦ Connected surface water storage is optimized for regional and local management of supplies ◦ Increasing connected regional Storage limited by infrastructure constraints and supply availability 3 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 RegionalStorageCapacity Dead Pool Emergency Pool Carryover Pool Local Operations Pool Not Connected to Aqueducts
  • 4. Miramar Otay Perdue Levy Alvarado Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD Escondido/Vista ID Poway Badger Olivenhain Weese Untreated Water Delivery System Conveyance Constraints 4 Future System Capacity Constraint - Pipelines 3 and 5 (beyond 2020) Existing / Future System Capacity Constraint – Serving South County WTPs Crossover Pipeline to serve WTP (beyond 2025) SV Pump Station (to optimize storage use)
  • 5. 5 5% 25% 10% Lines represent % of traces (frequency) Urban Water Management Plan Scenario (Expected) 45 days 60 days 90 days 120 days 50% 75%
  • 6. 6 5% 25% 10% Lines represent % of traces (frequency) Maximum Local Scenario (IPR and Other Local Projects) 45 days 60 days 90 days 120 days 50% 75%
  • 7. 7 5% 25% 10% Lines represent % of traces (frequency) Urban Water Management Plan Scenario (Expected) 45 days 60 days 90 days 120 days 50%
  • 8.  Measuring System Performance ◦ Untreated Water Constraint  Additional untreated water conveyance capacity at MWD delivery point  2020 to 2025 time frame ◦ Internal system bottlenecks need to be addressed  South County untreated water service  Immediate need to expand capacity – temporary repair insufficient  Review timing/scope of other long-term improvements ◦ Need for new supply development is 2025-30 or later  Dependent on local supply development & conservation 8
  • 9. Project Purpose Prelim Estimated Cost New 30-inch South County Intertie* Alleviate conveyance bottleneck south of Alvarado $6,000,000 Pipeline 3/4 Conversion Address untreated water conveyance constraint at MWD delivery point ~$220,000,000 (includes MWD portion) North County ESP Pump Station Meet ESP treated water delivery needs $21,563,000 Construct as Defined Project Purpose Estimated Cost Mission Trails Suite of projects Increase untreated water conveyance to serve South County WTPs. (*May replace 30-in. intertie) $63,917,000 Regulatory Storage Provide operational storage for increased deliveries $55,650,000 Third Pump San Vicente PS Meet ESP, Carryover Storage needs $8,044,000 Revise Scope, Size and Timing (May Decrease Cost)
  • 10. Project Purpose Estimated Cost Pipeline 6 (Water Authority Facility) Address untreated water delivery constraint at MWD delivery point $480,000,000 Second Crossover Pipeline Address untreated water delivery constraint s/o Twin Oaks $371,041,000 Other Facilities Flow Controls and Pipeline Rehab (LMSE) $20,000,000 Current CIP Budget Delay Beyond 2030 10
  • 11.  June 25th Meeting with Member Agency TAC ◦ Reviewed cost and technical data ◦ Comments and input on selecting a preferred list of projects for CEQA analysis  Comprehensive evaluation of proposed projects and modifications to current CIP ◦ Integrating long-term supply options into analysis ◦ Project cost estimates and comparison to future imported water costs ◦ Opportunities for in-line hydroelectric generation ◦ Analysis of reliability improvements  Decision matrix on project timing ◦ Dependency on Member Agency actions ◦ No regrets actions ◦ Timing of future Water Authority Board decision 11
  • 12. 12 July 11, 2013 Special Meeting of the Water Planning Committee – Review draft Master Plan document, project costs, and rate impacts and draft Staff Recommended alternative for PEIR analysis July 25, 2013 Water Planning Committee – Board input for final preparation of the draft Master Plan, Committee consideration of Staff Recommended Preferred List of Projects for analysis in PEIR August 2013 Water Planning Committee – Board input and direction for Final preparation of Climate Action Plan and PEIR September 2013 Release Draft Master Plan, CAP, and PEIR for member agency and public review and comment October 2013- January 2014 Water Planning Committee- Updates and Informational reports on progress of Draft Master Plan and Program EIR February 2014 Regular Board Meeting - Certification of Final PEIR and approval of Final Master Plan and CAP.