3. Introduction
Before 20th century, increases in crops and animal
production through enlarging the area cultivated.
By the end of century, all increases were coming from
increasing land productivity.
Transition of developed, developing and poorest countries.
Population increase, cause the demand to double in
2050, so there would be high income elasticity for food.
Most difficult challenges as population and income
continue to grow rapidly (By 2050, 9 and 10 billion).
4. Introduction
Most growth is expected to occur in poor
countries where income elasticity for food
remains high.
Population growth will slow substantially in
countries like India and China, and demand for
food will decrease as income rises, so income
elasticity for food declines.
To keep pace, particularly the world’s poorest
countries require increase in scientific and
technical effort.
5. Agriculture In Development Thought
Agriculture sector was viewed as a sector for
extracting resources and funding the industrial
sector. But was never thought of how to improve
it.
By early 1960s, it became clear that the
agriculture technology is location specific.
W. Schultz in his book “Transforming Traditional
Agriculture” insists that if the agrarian societies are
given modern counterparts they too could
succeed. They are “poor but efficient”.
6. Agriculture In Development Thought
For agricultural sector development high payoff
investments are:
1) Capacity of agricultural research institutions to
generate new location specific technical knowledge.
2) Capacity of technology of supply industries to
develop, produce, and market new technical inputs.
3) Schooling and non-formal education of rural people
to enable them use the knowledge and technology
effectively.
7. Agriculture In Development Thought
“High pay-off input model” was not able to
explain two major points:
1) How economic conditions induce an efficient
path of technical change for the agricultural sector
of particular society.
2) How economic conditions induce the
development of new institutions.
8. Agriculture In Development Thought
Early 1970s, Hayami and Ruttan formulated a model of
induced technical change.
In this model the direction of technical change in
agriculture was induced by changes in relative
resource endowments and factor prices. (Substitution
of expensive factors with cheap ones.)
Two kinds of technology are:
1) Mechanical Technology
2) Biological and Chemical Technology
10. Agriculture In Development Thought
A fully mechanized agriculture is typically very capital
intensive.
Biological advances involves:
1) Water and resource development to provide a more
favorable environment for plant growth.
2) Addition of organic and inorganic sources of plant
nutrition to soil.
3) Breeding of new biologically efficient crop varieties.
11. Agriculture In Development Thought
The implications of this model are:
1) In labor-abundant and land-constrained
developing countries like, China and India, research
resources are most productively directed to
advancing yield enhancing biological technology.
2) Land-abundant Brazil has realized very high returns
from research directed to releasing the productivity
constraints on its problem soil. Heavy lime application
on acidic aluminum soil has open region to extensive
mechanized production of maize and soya beans.
12. Measuring The Rate And Direction
Of Productivity Growth
Three stages of comparative research on rate and direction of
productivity:
1. Inter-country cross section and time-series comparisons of output per
unit of land and labor.
The several country and regional growth paths fall broadly into three
groups:
A) Land-constrained path in which output per hectare has risen faster
than output per worker.
B) Land abundant path in which output per worker has risen more rapidly
than output per hectare.
C) Intermediate growth path in which output per worker and per
hectare have grown at somewhat comparable rates.
14. Measuring The Rate And Direction
Of Productivity Growth
2) It involves the estimation of cross-country
production functions and the construction of
multifactor productivity estimates. Factor inputs –
land, labor, livestock, capital equipment (machinery)
and current inputs (fertilizer).
Result; land and livestock, machinery and
fertilizer, general and technical education each
accounted for 1/4th of differences in labor productivity
between developed and less developed countries as
groups.
Scale economies account for 15% of the difference.
15. Measuring The Rate And Direction
Of Productivity Growth
This implies that:
A) Labor productivity in less developed countries is
encouraging.
B) Pressure of population against land resources
was not a binding constraint.
C) Scale diseconomies were not immediate
constraint.
16. Measuring The Rate And Direction
Of Productivity Growth
3) Convergence of growth rates and levels of multi
factor productivity between and among developing
and less developed countries.
The frontier productivity approach have been
employed (To construct the best practice and
measure the distance of each country in sample from
the frontier by linear programming method.
Widening of agricultural productivity gap between
developed and developing countries between the
early 1960s and 1990s.
Developed countries converge at the same point
other than northern and southern Europe(diverge).
18. Measuring The Rate And Direction
Of Productivity Growth
This concludes that:
Technical change in Asia has been strongly
biased in a land saving direction in response to
severe constraints in land resources.
Thisbias is reflected in both a land saving shift in
the production function and the substitution of
technical inputs, particularly fertilizer and pest
and pathogen control chemicals, for land.
19. Resources And Environmental
Constraints
Leading resources and environmental constraints
faced by farmers includes:
Soil loss and degradation
Water logging and Salinity of soil
Coevolution of pests, pathogens and hosts
Impact of climate change
20. Resources And Environmental
Constraints
Soil:
By 2050 it may be necessary to feed “twice as many people
with half as much topsoil”.
Natural Resources Conservation Service have been
interpreted to indicate that if 1992 erosion rates continued
for 100 years the yield loss at the end of the period would
amount to 2-3%.
Study in China; very little loss of organic matter, can
overcome nitrogen loss by use of fertilizer.
Not a serious constraint on agriculture production over next
half century. But is a serious constraint in areas with fragile
resource areas like arid and semiarid regions of sub-Saharan
Africa.
21. Resources And Environmental
Constraints
Water:
Last half century, water has become a resource of high and
increasing value in many countries.
In arid and semi arid regions water scarcity is becoming a
serious constraint.
International Water Management Institute has projected that
by 2025 most countries including China would face severe
water scarcity.
Irrigation systems can be the answer to the water scarcity.
Lack of water resources is unlikely to become a severe
constraint on global agriculture production.
22. Resources And Environmental
Constraints
Pests:
Pests has become an increasingly serious constraint.
US, pesticides have been the most rapidly growing
input over last half century.
Dichlorodiphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) effective
against almost all insect species and relatively
harmless to human, animals and plants.
One cost was that it was somewhat harmful to wildlife
and humans and other cost is that it was involved in
destruction of beneficial insects.
23. Resources And Environmental
Constraints
Pests:
The integrated pest management involved the
use of an array of pest control strategies. They
started many programs for pest control.
The pests are evolving into more resistant pests
because of the use of different technologies. So
they must be updated.
24. Resources And Environmental
Constraints
Climate:
Measurements taken in Hawaii in late 1950s
indicate that CO2 was increasing in atmosphere.
Changes in temperature and precipitation could
occur because of human induced Co2 and
green house gases.
By,
2050 Co2 will be doubled. Rise in temperature
from 2.5oC – 4.5oC
25. Resources And Environmental
Constraints
Climate:
The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases
could affect agricultural production through three
elements:
1) Higher Co2 concentration in atmosphere may have
positive “fertilizer effect” on some crop plants.
2) Higher level could result in sea level and intrusion of
saltwater into ground water aquifers.
3) Changes in temperature, rainfall and sunlight may
also alter agricultural production.
26. Scientific And Technical Constraints
Technical change in agriculture is endogenous, scientific and
technical resources will be directed to sustaining or enhancing the
productivity of those factors that are relatively scarce and expensive.
Farmers of those areas which have not acquired the capacity to
invent or adapt technology to their resource endowments will find it
difficult to respond to the growth of domestic and international
demand.
Advances in crop production would come from expansions in area
irrigated.
Advances in animal production would come from genetic
improvements and advances in animal nutrition.
Increases in crop yield would come from change plant architecture to
make possible higher plant population per hectare.
27. Scientific And Technical Constraints
The ratio of grain to straw is already high in many
crops and increasing more would result in
physiological constraints.
There are also physiological constraints in improving
animal feed in areas that have already achieved the
highest level of output per hectare.
Costs of scientist are rising faster than the general
price level.
The conclusion is that those countries that have
achieved the highest levels of agricultural productivity
have begun to experience diminishing returns.
28. Agricultural Research Systems
The institutional arrangements for the support of agricultural
research began in the middle of 19th century.
In 1843 John Bennet established an agricultural experiment
station on his family estate. Led to establishment of first publicly
supported agricultural experiment station at
Mockern, Saxony, 1852.
The progress was made in 1st several decades of 20th century
initiating public sector agricultural research capacity in Latin
America. Researched was focused on tropical export crops
such as sugar, rubber, cotton, bananas, coffee and tea.
By 1960s substantial resources were channeled to strengthen
agriculture education with focus on domestic food crops in
developing countries.
29. Agricultural Research Systems
A number of bilateral donor agencies formed
Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR).
An active agricultural research system will be
needed to sustain growth in agricultural
productivity in 20th century.
The research systems in most developing
countries have yet to establish sufficient capacity
to make effective use of existing advances in
knowledge and technology.
