A personal view on how to think and reason about the Covid-19 pandemic, and other similar issues in general, targeted at a Pakistani/Urdu-speaking audience.
2. This presentation is not about suggesting or
finding answers.
It’s on how to think about the questions.
Eventually, not even about the Covid-19
pandemic specifically, but such issues in
general.
11. Science Questions
• What kind of disease does this virus cause?
• How does it spread?
• How fast can it spread?
• Which group(s) of people are at higher risk?
• What steps can be taken to prevent it? (not “should”)
• What steps can be taken to cure it? (not “should”)
12. Science cannot give you ultimate answers
Specifically, science is silent on issues of
religion, ethics, morality
13. Scientific View: Issues
• There will almost always be opposing views
• Scientists are humans:
• make mistakes, can be overconfident, can have vested
interests, etc.
15. Scientific View: What to do?
• Science will (usually) not give you final answers
• There will almost always be opposing views as well.
• Scientists are humans:
• make mistakes, can be overconfident, can have vested interests, etc.
• Follow the consensus view of relevant professionals/bodies
• Overall consensus of scientists
• Especially professionals and experts who have spent decades looking
into the topic
• Consensus of scientific bodies
• NHS, CDC, WHO, Country-specific health bodies (e.g. NIH in Pakistan)
16. Scientific View: What to do?
• Science will (usually) not give you final answers
• There will almost always be opposing views as well.
• Scientists are humans:
• make mistakes, can be overconfident, can have vested interests, etc.
• Follow the consensus view of relevant professionals/bodies
• Consensus of scientists
• Especially professionals and experts who have spent decades looking
into the topic
• Consensus of scientific bodies
• NHS, CDC, WHO, Country-specific health bodies (e.g. NIH in Pakistan)
• “Respectable” mainstream media
• Have their biases, but unlikely they will tell outright lies
• Look at a combination: e.g. BBC + Guardian + Atlantic + Aljazeera + Dawn?
• Science magazines: New Scientist, Scientific American
18. Scientific View: What NOT to do?
• Try to Ignore social media posts unless they
LINK to a “respectable source”.
• Simply “Dr XYZ” said something, is not
enough.
• Someone looking like a doctor in a video is
also not credible on its own.
19.
20. Avoid “science denial” attitude
(Well-informed criticism is a different thing.)
Scientific View: What NOT to do?
26. Scientific View: What NOT to do?
https://skepticalscience.com/agw-denial-explained-2.html
27. Scientific View: Note
• Scientists tend to use very careful language
• “probably”, “likely”, “there’s a good chance”, “almost
certain”, “high degree of confidence”.
• They can come across as unsure, whereas they are
trying to be careful.
• We are used to giving more weightage to (over)
confident tone and body language
• Try to ignore all that “air”, and focus on the content
and actual argument being made
29. Origin Questions
• How did this virus originate?
• Where did this originate?
• Did some people or a country do this in purpose?
• Has 5G got anything to do with it?
30. Origin Questions
• How did this virus originate?
• Where did this originate?
• Did some people or a country do this in purpose?
• Has 5G got anything to do with it?
• Should rely heavily on science
• But understanding of history, politics, and current affairs will also help
• Eventually, people have different “worldviews” and that will have impact
• Try to base views on sound evidence as much as possible
35. What is the “simple” explanation for
the Covid-19 pandemic?
• 1.5 million viruses in wild that we don't know about;
any one of them could be lethal to us.
• SARS and MERS, both coronaviruses.
• Potentially dangerous viruses have been tracked since
SARS
• one 96% similar to SARS-COV-19 was found not too long ago.
• WHO report few months before Covid-19: Respiratory
pathogen very real risk, and the world is not prepared.
36. “It is highly likely that future SARS or MERS-
like coronavirus outbreaks will originate from
bats, and there is an increased probability that
this will occur in China”
— this is what a study concluded in January 2019.
38. Real vs Far-fetched Conspiracies
“Real” Conspiracies / Cover-ups
• Limited location
• Limited people
• Conspiracies generally unrelated
• Rarely work out according to plan
• In general: the truth comes out
eventually → Evidence
39. Real vs Far-fetched Conspiracies
“Real” Conspiracies / Cover-ups
• Limited location
• Limited people
• Conspiracies generally unrelated
• Rarely work out according to plan
• In general: the truth comes out
eventually
“Conspiracy Theories”/
Far-fetched Conspiracies
• Very large, extensive plots
• World domination, Explain everything, grand plans
• Require an (unrealistically) large number of
people to be “in on it”.
• Contradictory
• Immune to evidence
• Evidence against conspiracy becomes proof of
conspiracy
• Will typically involve “Science Denialism”
attitude
40. Real vs Far-fetched
Conspiracies: Note
• People who are believing conspiracies are eventually
looking for the truth as well
• Looking down at people, making fun, or discarding
without serious consideration will not help
• Be kind, be considerate, have empathy
• If you are “debunking” something, don’t do it to
humiliate anyone, or “win” an argument
• Do it because you care for others
• If someone comes up with something that sounds like
conspiracy to you, but has sound evidence to support it:
listen!
42. Policy Questions
• What preventive measures should be taken?
• Lockdown?
• “Smart” lockdown?
• Social distancing?
• Self-regulated? (e.g Sweden)
• Close borders?
• How long should measures last?
• What measures can the people of the country/province/town handle?
• How to deal with the side-effects of lockdown, especially economy
• Will the lockdown end up causing more harm than good?
• What should be enforced, and what should be self-regulated?
43. Policy Questions
• What preventive measures should be taken?
• Lockdown?
• “Smart” lockdown?
• Social distancing?
• Self-regulated? (e.g Sweden)
• Close borders?
• How long should measures last?
• What measures can the people of the country/province/town handle?
• How to deal with the side-effects of lockdown, especially economy
• Will the lockdown end up causing more harm than good?
• What should be enforced, and what should be self-regulated?
• Bring in scientific view, economic view, religious view from relevant experts
• Decision eventually is (should be) made by politicians/people in position of authority
46. Islamic View
• For practicing Muslims, Islam is all-encompassing
• Science should be brought it to answer the questions it CAN answer
• So, these are scientific questions
• what is the risk of spreading the disease if people go the mosque
• are there groups of people who are more vulnerable
• what precautions will reduce the risk of infection
• Then, there are some policy questions, determined by authorities
47. Islamic View
• For practicing Muslims, Islam is all-encompassing
• Science should be brought it to answer the questions it CAN answer
• So, these are scientific questions
• what is the risk of spreading the disease if people go the mosque
• are there groups of people who are more vulnerable
• what precautions will reduce the risk of infection
• Then, there are some policy questions, determined by authorities
• What do we need to do as Muslims.
• E.g., if Science tells you that there is a reasonable risk that standing together in prayers at
mosque can spread a dangerous pathogen, what should our response be as Muslims?
• If the authority make a certain policy about visiting mosques, what should our response be
as Muslims.
49. References
[1] Pandemic timeline image: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/
[2] Conspiracy theory handbook: https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-
content/uploads/2020/03/ConspiracyTheoryHandbook.pdf
[3] Netflix documentary, "This pandemic, explained“: https://www.netflix.com/title/81273378
[4] Three ways to spot a conspiracy theory: https://www.bbc.co.uk/ideas/videos/three-ways-to-
spot-a-conspiracy-theory/p07j9sjk
[5] How to spot a conspiracy theory when you see one: https://theconversation.com/how-to-spot-
a-conspiracy-theory-when-you-see-one-133574
[6] This study predicted a coronavirus outbreak one year ago:
https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/diseases-medicine/this-study-predicted-a-coronavirus-
outbreak-one-year-ago/
[7] Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial: https://skepticalscience.com/agw-denial-
explained-2.html
50. Photo credits
• Unless stated otherwise, all images sources from
• https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
• https://pixabay.com/
• This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC
• https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/96334879502134519/
• https://twitter.com/whatsthepont/status/774613683808956418
