The document discusses the future of subscription business models. It predicts that subscription services will proliferate as more categories adopt this model. Eventually, subscription services will become mainstream but reach a point of saturation as consumers accumulate too many subscriptions. This will lead to innovations like flexible subscriptions that allow pausing/activating accounts, subscription sharing between users, and more mindful subscribing as consumers reevaluate constant access versus ownership. The future of the subscription model involves a synthesis with product delivery as services, adoption by both niche and mass brands, and evolution of the subscription format and experience.

1. SUBSCRIPTION
/// TREND CASE STUDY ///
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PART 3 of TREND TRAINING COURSE

2. TREND ANALYSIS
FRAMEWORK

3. INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
MACRO-
DIMENSIONS
FUNDAMENTAL
LEVEL
Innovation landscape encompasses
business and organizational
innovations that can appear in the
form of start-ups, new features,
models of operations or value
creation
the dimensions that have influence
on our everyday lives: culture,
lifestyle, consumption,
environment, governance,
organization, technology,
community, demographics or
education
behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
the underlying ideological system/s
where every phenomenon is
marked by evaluation
the expression of the underlying
ideological system – through
stories, conversations, actions,
choices and needs

4. SUBSCRIPTION
MODELS

5. -content-
-sampling and
curation-
-product
supply-
MODELS
The oldest form of
subscriptions – content.
Now this is not only news
media, but also books,
music, video games and
video content.
Subscription for a
consumable or short-life
product that needs to be
replenished pretty often
Subscription as a curated
range of products or
samples distributed to
subscribers

6. MODELS
-product as
service-
With most software
providers moving onto
subscription models,
other unrelated categories
will also turn their
offerings into service

7. SOFTWARE
SERVICES
CONTENT
SERVICES
OTHER
CATEGORIES
AREAS OF APPLICATION

8. SOFTWARE
SERVICES
CONTENT
SERVICES
OTHER
CATEGORIES
AREAS OF APPLICATION

9. PRODUCT AS A
SERVICE
-INNOVATION AREA #1 -

10. https://www.birchbox.com/
https://barkbox.com/
https://clubw.com/
HYBRID SERVICE
https://www.dietchef.co.uk/
TRADITIONAL
CATEGORIES, NEW
WAYS OF DELIVERY

11. SUBSCRIPTION
AS CURATION
-INNOVATION AREA #2-

12. https://one.mistobox.com/
https://clubw.com/
https://www.carnivoreclub.co/
SERVICE SUCCESS
EQUALS CURATORS
REPUTATION

13. SUBSCRIBED
PERSONALIZATION
-INNOVATION AREA #3 -

14. http://www.teabox.com http://justtherightbook.com/ https://www.bombfell.com/
SUBSCRIPTION
SERVICE IS ABOUT
ME

15. CHANGES IN OUR
EVERYDAY LIVES

16. -cheap delivery infrastructure
-internet usage
-cloud services
Deliveries and logistics have evolved in giant leaps – everything can be delivered to
most places within realistic time-scales and without breaking a sweat. Delivery
infrastructure becomes available even to small business owners.
Internet and mobile usage is peaking, the scale of e-service is increasing even in
countries where the number of internet user has already reached it peak. DATA is
the most essential metric.
We are relying more and more on cloud services and they are becoming both the
storage points and service/application points for most of the things we do.

17. NOMADIC
LIFESTYLES
DECLUTTERED
LIVING
We tend to surround ourselves with abundance of stuff and
things. But eventually they pile-up, require additional attention
and slow us down. The declutter trend is about simplifying our
lives by getting rid of the unnecessary and unessential things; it
manifests itself in interior design, consumption and
organizational habits and ideologies.
We are leading nomadic lifestyles in terms of
where we live, where we work and where we
socialize. These places are no longer tied
together and we are not stuck with them for such
long periods of time as we used to be.

18. BEHAVIOR AND
NEEDS

19. -organizational
needs
-innovation
needs
-discovery
needs
people are constantly short on time, so it is only
natural that they require brands and businesses to
help with the following aspects: save time,
develop good habits and help organize everyday
life.
we get bored quickly - discovering new
things keeps us engaged. It is also about
things that matter specifically to us.
people evaluate brands and
businesses by how much those
brands and businesses are able to
improve, innovate and move
forward. We pay more attention to
things that evolve and quickly forget
the ones that don’t.

20. -organizational needs
-innovation needs
-discovery needs
THE MATCH
-service
-curation and
personalization

21. VALUES AND BELIEFS

22. ATTITUDE TOWARDS
CONSUMPTION
PRODUCT AS
EXPERIENCE
PRODUCT AS
OWNERSHIP
product that holds symbolic value
and has value in itself and in
prolonged ownership. The tie that
we have with it is important.
product is disposable and
continuous – only this
continuity helps to establish a
particular experience
-singular
-maintained
-claimed and owned
-continuous
-disposable
-experiential

23. if products have always had symbolic
value, only subscription services will
truly be a part of a lifestyle status
VALUE MODEL #1

24. subscription model is a
promise of an everlasting
improvement
VALUE MODEL #2

25. THE FUTURE OF THE
SUBSCRIPTION MODEL

26. the proliferation of
subscription services
the saturation
of subscription
services
subscription services becoming
acceptably mainstream

27. the proliferation of
subscription services
THE PRODUCT-
SERVICE SYNTHESIS
This phase means that even categories that have
no relation to traditional subscription categories
will move into the same model, e. g. think of
restaurants, barber shops, education services
offering subscription model for their product

28. LONG-TAIL
SUBSCRIPTIONS
MASS BRAND
SUBSCRIPTIONS
Even though subscription services have been about long-tail
subscriptions (products and services that cater for niche needs
and audiences), big brands are going to move there as well to
leverage their existing touch-points, brand presence and
infrastructure
subscription services becoming
acceptably mainstream

29. subscription services becoming
acceptably mainstream
the saturation
of subscription
services
Transition from mainstream to saturation is
going to pick up a few innovations as well –
and this is mostly going to be about evolution
of subscription formats
ON THE WAY

30. subscription services becoming
acceptably mainstream
the saturation
of subscription
services
1.MICRO-SUBSCRIPTIONS
Subscriptions will move into micro-
subscription field – just like MEDIA OUTLETS
are asking you to pay 1 $ per week to view
the site without ads. This will spread with
small subscription services emerging
everywhere and even accompanying
traditional paid products as an additional
value tier.
2. SMART SUBSCRIPTIONS
Subscription services will gather more and
more data about the consumer – but this
time around this data will have to be used for
direct consumer’s benefit: better product
development, better selection and range.
This evolutionary factor will determine dead-
end services and the ones that are worth
long-term investment.

31. the saturation
of subscription
services
This is where it will get the most interesting
as people will start noticing that they have
too many subscriptions at the same time and
they are starting to weigh down on their
finances. This is going to be the sobering
moment for the whole subscription industry.
It is also going to be a serious incentive for
further developments
BREAK-DOWN POINT

32. the saturation
of subscription
services
1. FLEXIBLE
SUBSCRIPTIONSThe providers will have to realize that in
order to get their customers back they need
to provide simple options for suspending and
activating accounts.
2. SUBSCRIPTION SHARING
Financial situation will finally spawn this
monster – by sharing we will be able to get
the most out of joint accounts and spend less
on everything.
3. MINDFUL SUBSCRIBING
At some point we will start looking over our
shoulder and wondering whether actually
owning something wasn’t such a bad idea
after all and how to get rid of this constant
access to everything.

33. FLEXIBLE SUBSCRIPTIONS
The providers will have to realize that in
order to get their customers back they need
to provide simple options for suspending and
activating accounts.
SUBSCRIPTION SHARING
Financial situation will finally spawn this
monster – by sharing we will be able to get
the most out of joint accounts and spend less
on everything.
MINDFUL SUBSCRIBING
At some point we will start looking over our
shoulder and wondering whether actually
owning something wasn’t such a bad idea
after all and how to get rid of this constant
access to everything.

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