What The Weather Holds - Dr. Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University, from the 2013 World Pork Expo, June 5 - 7, 2013, Des Moines, IA, USA.
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Dr. Elwynn Taylor - What The Weather Holds
1. What the Weather Holds for
2013 and Beyond
(Implications for Corn Yield & Price)
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
setaylor@iastate.edu
www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
â˘
Likely US yield (4 June 2013) US Corn 147 BPA (9.23 K/ha)
3. Age of Risk Management
⢠Some years: Very Good Crop
⢠Some years: Very Poor Crop
4. Drought: Impact & Adaptation
Washington University: a&s magazine Spring 2013
5. ⢠Above the US Corn Yield Trend
Six Consecutive Years
6. Why is US corn production up?
⢠Corn has become profitable.
⢠No other reasons..
7. Corn Prices vs. Costs
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
$perbushel
Season-average Price Cost per BushelLow yield year Chad E Heart
8. Change of Crop Demand
⢠Food (Human or Livestock)
â Food demand increases with population
â Livestock demand increases with wealth
⢠Fiber ??
⢠ENERGY DEMAND (Bio-fuel)
â Increases with wealth
â Increases with population
â Increases with Diminished supply of conventional
fuel
â˘
9. Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)
It took 1/3 of our farm to produce the âfuelâ for our
farm equipment. We found it much better to buy
fuel for a tractor, and use the land to produce food.
People are now paying enough for fuel to go back
to growing fuel.
10. Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy
Consumption and Income are Linked
11. Why Bio-Fuel ?
⢠We Like our Energy
⢠Our hunger for Energy can
influence the Climate of the Planet
⢠Bio-Energy approaches renewable
in the short term
⢠Bio-Energy is a âfood-fuelâ trade-off
13. Midwest Precipitation
Has a multi-cyclic nature
May be a âClimate Changeâ indicator
in that a general increase is
consistent with increased
Atmospheric & Water Temperature
14. â˘
A year as extreme as 2012 is seldom
followed by a full return to normal.
15. There are 2 Kinds of
Drought
⢠Drought of âHunger for Foodâ
⢠Drought of âThirst for Water
â Amos 8:11
Sometimes called:
Agricultural and Hydrological drought
Or
Short Term and Long Term drought
18. ENSO has a Global Signal
⢠During years of El Nino
â US Soy & Corn do well
â US & Canada Wheat suffers from Drought
⢠During years of La Nina
â US Corn at risk
â Canada Wheat usually good
â Canada sometimes floods
Argentina responds to ENSO
much as does US corn & soy
19. ENSO History 2010- May 2013
⢠The La Niùa began 22 July 2010
⢠The La Niùa ended 21 March 2012
23. La NiĂąa
Rolling a â7â or a â6â is a
drought. Corn > $4.00/bu
La Ni Ăąa
Iowa State University Extension
70% Chance of
Below Trend Yield
147 $5.53
160
144
162
$4.55
155
$4.85
140
$6.45
176
Dec 2013 price by Wisner 5/14/2013
$= 84.3223+ 0.0029xBPAxBPA â 0.9623xBPA
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Tue: Dec corn $5.44 -- expectation 149BPA
29. Summary
⢠Hurricane season expected to be active
⢠Drought likely to persist/expand in West
⢠Temperature (High &/or Low) significant
⢠Climate will likely be increasingly erratic
(25 year interval)
http://www.fs.fed.us/r4/ashley/heritage/histories/swett-ranch.shtmlMore than half of our farm was for production of âfuelâ for our horse-power. We had a car and soon bought a tractor. Food was worth a lot⌠A âminimum wageâ person worked 2 hours to earn a dozen eggs, today it only takes 12 min of work. We found it much better to raise food for a good income and buy fuel at 25¢ per gallon. Fuel stayed the same relative price right up until the 1990s. Now it is looking like it might be good to go back to farming fuel again.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html The âBio Energyâ effort is driven by overall energy demand and a realization that consumption of fossil fuel is likely the major contributor to escalating Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The very low precipitation years tend to take more than one subsequent year to return to normal.
Size = 4.5
Dashed line represents the ârealized potential Iowa corn yieldâ since 1932 (when weather is âidealâ for the crop it achieves the dashed line, all other years the yield is reduced below the potential line directly or indirectly by adverse weather. The economists are quick to tell us that the âaverage $ return for corn is $0â so we see how important volatility is to YOU. This is why we are no better off at 150bpa than we were at 50bpa.