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Thinking Exponentially
How to anticipate the next 4 consumer-driven disruptions
                    Dennis W d id
                    D    i Woodside




                                                Google Confidential and Proprietary
I’m a Mac. I’m a Nexus One!
Technology progresses exponentially!




      Progression of Flight   Progression of Computing
Consumer adoption of internet = exponential!

                                                                              TV

                                                                              Internet
                                                                              Radio




                                                                              Print
          1836




                        1895
   1450




                                         1922
                                         1927
                                                1941




                                                                1990


                                                                       2010
                 Tech          Content      Users      Advertising
Where we stand today




   1.6B             $500B              60B                       20 hrs
 people online       2009             searches              Video uploaded
(up from 500M    eCommerce sales    conducted per           every minute to
   in 2003)                        month worldwide             YouTube




                                                     Google Confidential and Proprietary
What’s next? 4 disruptions


   1. Search: Richer, more intense and more global



   2. Video: Addressable & “on-demand”



   3. Mobility: More important than the PC



   4. Computing: From the hard-drive to the cloud
1. Search: Richer, more global, more social
1. Search: Richer information faster
1. Search: Travel research intensifies
      Log on:                          Search:                       Click:                   Back-Up:                      Click:            Back-Up:
    Google.com                   “Galveston Cruises”          AffordableTours.com            Google.com                  Cruise.com          Google.com

            Refine Search:                     Back-Up:                      Click:                     Back-Up:                       Click:
      “Galveston Cruises Cheap”
                             p                Google.com
                                                 g                   GalvestonCruises.com              Google.com
                                                                                                          g                     VacationsToGo.com

          Click:                      Back-Up:                 Click:              Direct Type:                Search:                       Click:
    CruiseMagic.com                  Google.com            eCruises.com            Google.com              “Vacation Spots”             Travelocity.com

                Click:                                      Refine Search:                Back-Up:
                                                                                                 p                   Click:               Back-Up:
                                                                                                                                                 p
    DiscountThemeParkVacations.com                     “Disney World Vacations”          Google.com                About.com             Google.com

    Direct Type:                     Search:               Refine Search:                Click:                 Back-Up:                   Click:
    Google.com                   “Free Vacations”        “Cheap Vacations”             Orbitz.com              Google.com             CheapTickets.com

                            Refine Search:                  Back-Up:              Click:                     Refine Search:                 Back-Up:
                     “All Inclusive Puerto Rico”           Google.com          Expedia.com             “All Inclusive Vacations”           Google.com

          Click:                         Back-Up:                      Click:                      Back-Up:                Click:              Back-Up:
    CheapCaribbean.com
    CheapCaribbean com                  Google.com
                                        Google com            AllInclusiveOutlet.com
                                                              AllInclusiveOutlet com              Google.com
                                                                                                  Google com             About.com
                                                                                                                         About com            Google.com
                                                                                                                                              Google com

                Direct Type:                       Click:                          Back-Up:               Click:                      Refine Search:
                Orbitz.com              SaveOnVacationPackages.com                Google.com           Expedia.com              “Puerto Rico All Inclusive”

    Direct T
    Di t Type:                    Search:                  Click:              Direct T
                                                                               Di t Type:                                                2 Days Later:
                                                                                                               Log Off
    Google.com              “Puerto Rico Hotel”        CopaMarina.com         Expedia.com                                             Booked on Expedia


Source: Compete, Inc. May 2009
1. Search: Travel research intensifies
  Log on:                      Search:                        Click:                   Back-Up:                     Click:            Back-Up:
Google.com               “Galveston Cruises”           AffordableTours.com            Google.com                 Cruise.com          Google.com
   In the short term
                                                                           Back-Up:
       Refine Search:                   Back-Up:                      Click:                                                   Click:

   Engage at every touch point
      Click:
                         point.
 “Galveston Cruises Cheap”
                        p

                              Back-Up:
                                       Google.com
                                          g

                                                        Click:
                                                              GalvestonCruises.com

                                                                           Direct Type:
                                                                                               Google.com
                                                                                                  g

                                                                                                       Search:
                                                                                                                        VacationsToGo.com

                                                                                                                                     Click:
CruiseMagic.com              Google.com             eCruises.com           Google.com              “Vacation Spots”             Travelocity.com

            Click:                                  Refine Search:                 Back-Up:
                                                                                          p                  Click:               Back-Up:
                                                                                                                                         p
DiscountThemeParkVacations.com                 “Disney World Vacations”           Google.com               About.com             Google.com

Direct Type:                 Search:               Refine Search:                 Click:                Back-Up:                   Click:
Google.com               “Free Vacations”        “Cheap Vacations”              Orbitz.com             Google.com             CheapTickets.com

                      Refine Search:                 Back-Up:              Click:                    Refine Search:                 Back-Up:
    In the long term

               “All Inclusive Puerto Rico”          Google.com          Expedia.com            “All Inclusive Vacations”           Google.com


    Expect search to influence
      p
      Click:
CheapCaribbean.com
CheapCaribbean com
                                  Back-Up:
                                 Google.com
                                 Google com
                                                                Click:
                                                       AllInclusiveOutlet.com
                                                       AllInclusiveOutlet com
                                                                                           Back-Up:
                                                                                          Google.com
                                                                                          Google com
                                                                                                                   Click:
                                                                                                                 About.com
                                                                                                                 About com
                                                                                                                                       Back-Up:
                                                                                                                                      Google.com
                                                                                                                                      Google com


    almost all travel purchases.
         Direct Type:
         Orbitz.com
                                           Click:
                                SaveOnVacationPackages.com
                                                                           Back-Up:
                                                                          Google.com
                                                                                                  Click:
                                                                                               Expedia.com
                                                                                                                              Refine Search:
                                                                                                                        “Puerto Rico All Inclusive”

Direct T
Di t Type:                 Search:                 Click:               Direct T
                                                                        Di t Type:                                               2 Days Later:
                                                                                                       Log Off
Google.com           “Puerto Rico Hotel”       CopaMarina.com          Expedia.com                                            Booked on Expedia
2. Video: How we watch, then vs. now




                     vs



     12 million              110 million



             9.2x more reach
2. Video + Community + Creativity = Engagement


                  #2               1B
                                   1B+           20
                                                 20+              #2
                  site in global   video views   hours of video   global search
                  minutes          each day      uploaded each    engine
                                                 minute



  Entertainment                Information                Community
2. Video: Interactive storytelling
2. Video: Interactive storytelling

In the short term

Engage with consumers on their
terms


In the long term

50% of all video advertising will
  %                        g
be addressable
3. Mobile: Too big to ignore




                                     6.7B          4B




  8X                                 4X     3.5X    3X   2.5X


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 2009
3. Mobile: Relevance increasingly means mobile
3. Mobile: Get it all on the go
3. Mobile: Get it all on the go

In the short term

Test your user experience.
               experience



In the long term

30% of online bookings will
  %                 g
come from mobile.

                                  18
4.4. Cloud computing:Then and now
   Cloud Computing: then and now
Google’s big bets
Search & ads        Video




Cloud computing     Mobility
Opening Keynote Presentation: Dennis Woodside

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Opening Keynote Presentation: Dennis Woodside

  • 1. Thinking Exponentially How to anticipate the next 4 consumer-driven disruptions Dennis W d id D i Woodside Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 2. I’m a Mac. I’m a Nexus One!
  • 3. Technology progresses exponentially! Progression of Flight Progression of Computing
  • 4. Consumer adoption of internet = exponential! TV Internet Radio Print 1836 1895 1450 1922 1927 1941 1990 2010 Tech Content Users Advertising
  • 5. Where we stand today 1.6B $500B 60B 20 hrs people online 2009 searches Video uploaded (up from 500M eCommerce sales conducted per every minute to in 2003) month worldwide YouTube Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 6. What’s next? 4 disruptions 1. Search: Richer, more intense and more global 2. Video: Addressable & “on-demand” 3. Mobility: More important than the PC 4. Computing: From the hard-drive to the cloud
  • 7. 1. Search: Richer, more global, more social
  • 8. 1. Search: Richer information faster
  • 9. 1. Search: Travel research intensifies Log on: Search: Click: Back-Up: Click: Back-Up: Google.com “Galveston Cruises” AffordableTours.com Google.com Cruise.com Google.com Refine Search: Back-Up: Click: Back-Up: Click: “Galveston Cruises Cheap” p Google.com g GalvestonCruises.com Google.com g VacationsToGo.com Click: Back-Up: Click: Direct Type: Search: Click: CruiseMagic.com Google.com eCruises.com Google.com “Vacation Spots” Travelocity.com Click: Refine Search: Back-Up: p Click: Back-Up: p DiscountThemeParkVacations.com “Disney World Vacations” Google.com About.com Google.com Direct Type: Search: Refine Search: Click: Back-Up: Click: Google.com “Free Vacations” “Cheap Vacations” Orbitz.com Google.com CheapTickets.com Refine Search: Back-Up: Click: Refine Search: Back-Up: “All Inclusive Puerto Rico” Google.com Expedia.com “All Inclusive Vacations” Google.com Click: Back-Up: Click: Back-Up: Click: Back-Up: CheapCaribbean.com CheapCaribbean com Google.com Google com AllInclusiveOutlet.com AllInclusiveOutlet com Google.com Google com About.com About com Google.com Google com Direct Type: Click: Back-Up: Click: Refine Search: Orbitz.com SaveOnVacationPackages.com Google.com Expedia.com “Puerto Rico All Inclusive” Direct T Di t Type: Search: Click: Direct T Di t Type: 2 Days Later: Log Off Google.com “Puerto Rico Hotel” CopaMarina.com Expedia.com Booked on Expedia Source: Compete, Inc. May 2009
  • 10. 1. Search: Travel research intensifies Log on: Search: Click: Back-Up: Click: Back-Up: Google.com “Galveston Cruises” AffordableTours.com Google.com Cruise.com Google.com In the short term
 Back-Up: Refine Search: Back-Up: Click: Click: Engage at every touch point Click: point. “Galveston Cruises Cheap” p Back-Up: Google.com g Click: GalvestonCruises.com Direct Type: Google.com g Search: VacationsToGo.com Click: CruiseMagic.com Google.com eCruises.com Google.com “Vacation Spots” Travelocity.com Click: Refine Search: Back-Up: p Click: Back-Up: p DiscountThemeParkVacations.com “Disney World Vacations” Google.com About.com Google.com Direct Type: Search: Refine Search: Click: Back-Up: Click: Google.com “Free Vacations” “Cheap Vacations” Orbitz.com Google.com CheapTickets.com Refine Search: Back-Up: Click: Refine Search: Back-Up: In the long term
 “All Inclusive Puerto Rico” Google.com Expedia.com “All Inclusive Vacations” Google.com Expect search to influence p Click: CheapCaribbean.com CheapCaribbean com Back-Up: Google.com Google com Click: AllInclusiveOutlet.com AllInclusiveOutlet com Back-Up: Google.com Google com Click: About.com About com Back-Up: Google.com Google com almost all travel purchases. Direct Type: Orbitz.com Click: SaveOnVacationPackages.com Back-Up: Google.com Click: Expedia.com Refine Search: “Puerto Rico All Inclusive” Direct T Di t Type: Search: Click: Direct T Di t Type: 2 Days Later: Log Off Google.com “Puerto Rico Hotel” CopaMarina.com Expedia.com Booked on Expedia
  • 11. 2. Video: How we watch, then vs. now vs 12 million 110 million 9.2x more reach
  • 12. 2. Video + Community + Creativity = Engagement #2 1B 1B+ 20 20+ #2 site in global video views hours of video global search minutes each day uploaded each engine minute Entertainment Information Community
  • 13. 2. Video: Interactive storytelling
  • 14. 2. Video: Interactive storytelling In the short term
 Engage with consumers on their terms In the long term
 50% of all video advertising will % g be addressable
  • 15. 3. Mobile: Too big to ignore 6.7B 4B 8X 4X 3.5X 3X 2.5X Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 2009
  • 16. 3. Mobile: Relevance increasingly means mobile
  • 17. 3. Mobile: Get it all on the go
  • 18. 3. Mobile: Get it all on the go In the short term
 Test your user experience. experience In the long term
 30% of online bookings will % g come from mobile. 18
  • 19. 4.4. Cloud computing:Then and now Cloud Computing: then and now
  • 20. Google’s big bets Search & ads Video Cloud computing Mobility