Climate Change Applications of Ecological Niche Modeling
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A talk given at Wildlife Institute of India
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Climate Change Applications of Ecological Niche Modeling
- 1. Effects of Global Climate Change on Birds Town Peterson Biodiversity Institute University of Kansas
- 9. Niche Modeling and Climate Change • Move from speculation to prediction • Objective, quantitative approaches to anticipating climate change effects on biodiversity • Techniques broadly applicable … understanding and anticipating biodiversity shifts, species invasions, disease risk, etc.
- 10. Abiotic niche Biotic interactionsAccessibility Area presenting appropriate combinations of abiotic and biotic conditions (= potential distribution) Actual geographic distribution (abiotic and biotic conditions fulfilled, accessible to dispersers)
- 12. Niche Conservatism and Climate Change • Niches are conserved across reasonable periods of evolutionary time • Niches of species are not expected to change over time periods as short as in the current period of “global warming” • Therefore, we can—at least as an initial assumption—be confident that niche evolution will not be an important factor in species’ responses to current climate change
- 17. Steller’s Jay beforeSteller’s Jay afterPygmy Nuthatch beforePygmy Nuthatch after
- 18. Baird’s Sparrow beforeBaird’s Sparrow afterLesser Prairie-Chicken beforeLesser Prairie-Chicken after
- 19. Mountains vs Flatlands Percent Change - No Dispersal 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Percent change Frequency Centroid Distance - No Dispersal 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Distance (km) Frequency Green = montane species Blue = flatlands species
- 20. It’s Happening …
- 23. INDirect effects via marine intrusion
- 24. Coastline Topography and Marine Intrusion
- 25. New Zealand - Coromandel Coast
- 26. South Coast New Guinea
- 27. The Americas
- 28. Global Projected Extinctions from Marine Intrusion Global Species Losses: 181 species under the 1 m scenario 337 species under the 6 m scenario out of 18,628 current species considered
- 29. North Carolina Coast Study • Department of Energy funding • Special opportunity because digital elevation model resolved to 1 cm vertically for NC coast • First exploration of climate change effects on ecosystem shifts using correlational tools
- 33. COMPOUND effects: Climate change and marine intrusion
- 34. Mexican Sheartail Doricha eliza
- 35. Joint Effects Double whammy More species affected
- 36. Joint Effects (Preliminary) 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 80 Percentlossowingtoinundation Percent loss owing to climate change
- 37. Conclusions
- 38. General Geographic Expectations for Biodiversity Species will respond in general by – moving to track appropriate conditions – adapting to new conditions – going extinct if failing both of the above Geographic tracking will generally be – upward in elevation – poleward in latitude BUT Species are individualistic in their responses Dispersal abilities will be key in system behavior Effects will be more serious in flatlands systems than in montane systems Effects will be more serious in bounded systems than in continuous/contiguous systems