Toc Education

Spherical Angle Critical Chain Software for Microsoft Project  

Managing Project Risk Using Critical Chain Project Management

The Theory of Constraints ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Where has TOC been applied? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Job Of Management ,[object Object],- W. Edwards Deming - “ The New Economics” Project Plans must be predictive models

Multitasking – A Key Limiting Process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],T

Multitasking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S

Multitasking Is Killing Productivity Task A Task B Process Time A Process Time B Elapsed Time A Elapsed Time B A/4 A/4 A/4 A/4 B/4 B/4 B/4 B/4

Additional Damage Task A Task B Process Time A Process Time B Elapsed Time A Elapsed Time B Mental setup penalty A/4 A/4 A/4 A/4 B/4 B/4 B/4 B/4

Damage Via Logistics ,[object Object],[object Object],Sort Black Mix White Orange Sort Black Mix White Orange Sort Black Mix White Orange

What Are We Causing? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Boyd Cycle

Say ‘NO’ to Multitasking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Overcoming Human Nature ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We must foster a “Relay Runner” mentality

A Critical Chain Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Process Variation Dr. Deming’s Classic Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],32 60 … … 55 5 24 4 35 3 27 2 25 1 Time Day

What do you get? ,[object Object],Duration Duration 0 0 50 50 100 100 150 150 Log-normal Distribution F F R R E E Q Q U U E E N N C C Y Y

Our Current Practice! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Project Due Date 0 50 100 150 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

“ How to make the Change?” Model The Mean ,[object Object],[object Object],Duration Duration 0 0 50 50 100 100 150 150 Log-normal Distribution Mean 30; S.D. 15. 30 30 F F R R E E Q Q U U E E N N C C Y Y Mean

How Variation Changes with number of tasks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Run with 2 tasks. (b) Run with 1 task. (a) 150 0 50 100 Run with 4 tasks. (c) (d) 150 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 Run with 8 tasks. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Do you feel good about 50%??? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],100 150 T 1 0 50 (50%) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

How about 95% Probability? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],100 150 0 50 T 1 T 2 (95%) (50%) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Protect the Project Due Date “Project Buffers” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],100 150 T 1 0 50 Commitment Date Buffer 95% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Variation And The Parallel WBS Component Start Project Start Component Start 70 For seven tasks only For four tasks only For four tasks only Task 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

A Logical Solution ,[object Object],95% 95% P[1st 7] = 0.5 Buffer Buffer Feeding Buffers Project Start 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Component Start Component Start 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Managed Variation 95% 95% Buffer Buffer Buffer 95% Project Start 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Component Start Component Start 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Calculate Buffers and Tolerance Level

Apply Buffers and Schedule Network

Operational Data The Protection Ratio ,[object Object],50 days duration * 30% Buffer (15d) 15 day Buffer 30 days remaining* 30% Buffer (9d) 7 days PR = 1.0 (15d / 15d) PR = 0.7 (7d / 9d) 20 days Complete

Buffer Management (TOC) Project Buffer 1.0 .5 Project Schedule 0.0 Project Start Date Project End Date “ SHIFT happens!!!” Protection Ratio = Remaining Buffer/Required Buffer PR

Portfolio View From cc-Pulse 30 13 7 7 7 7 7 93 135 168 210 252 301 6 61 52 70 76 86 100 25.5 PR=114% PR=14% PR=136% PR=78% PR=89% PR=90% PR=100% 9-Sep-03 23-Sep-03 7-Oct-03 21-Oct-03 4-Nov-03 18-Nov-03 2-Dec-03 16-Dec-03 30-Dec-03 13-Jan-04 27-Jan-04 10-Feb-04 24-Feb-04 9-Mar-04 23-Mar-04 6-Apr-04 20-Apr-04 4-May-04 18-May-04 1-Jun-04 15-Jun-04 29-Jun-04 13-Jul-04 27-Jul-04 10-Aug-04 24-Aug-04 7-Sep-04 21-Sep-04 5-Oct-04 19-Oct-04 2-Nov-04 16-Nov-04 30-Nov-04 Test 2 PB protecting z Youth Center PB protecting End Of Project 5 Buffers.mpp PB protecting System I&T 5 Buffers.mpp PB protecting System I&T 5 Buffers.mpp PB protecting System I&T 5 Buffers.mpp PB protecting System I&T 5 Buffers.mpp PB protecting System I&T Completed Duration Remaining Duration Buffer Remaining Portfolio Name: Master Schedule 10/14/2003 Report Date List of deliverable names, hyperlinked to corresponding time histories of remaining duration. Time of this report. Elapsed time for this deliverable. Duration remaining for this deliverable. Expected completion for this deliverable, as of the date of this report. Protection Ration, as of the date of this report.

Advantages Of This Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Toc Education

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