The PV market has developed significantly in the last years, thanks to a complex combination of price decline, technology improvements and financial support schemes. This webinar intends to bring additional information about the main trends in the PV market, industry and policy support in key countries and globally. It will highlight the reasons why PV has developed so fast and what can be expected in the coming years. In particular, the current support schemes and market drivers will be analyzed, together with the question of industry development. The geographical rebalancing between western and asian countries will be commented and explained. Finally the growing role of PV in the electricity sector will be explained. Two presenters will share the floor : Izumi Kaizuka from RTS Corporation in Japan and Gaëtan Masson, Operating Agent of IEA-PVPS Task 1.

1. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Trends in PV Applications
Gaëtan Masson,
IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent
Director, Becquerel Institute
Vice-Chairman, European PV Tech. Platform
Leonardo Energy Webinar 21-01-2016

2. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
What is IEA PVPS?
• Implementing Agreement from
International Energy Agency –
Energy Technology Network.
• Established in 1993
• 29 members: 24 countries, European Commission, 4
associations
• Strategy 2013-2017: “To enhance the international
collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic
solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable
energy systems”

3. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
PV & Climate Change Mitigation

4. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
From 40 GW in 2014…
?
2015

5. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
177.000 MW end of 2014
?
2015

6. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
A Global PV Market

7. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

8. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
A changing Top 10

9. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
2 Distinct PV Worlds
Distributed PV
Centralized PVProsumers
Producers
Grid injection, PPA,
competition with
utilities generation
business
Self-consumption,
energy effiency, grid
parity, competition
with utilities
distribution business
One
technology

10. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Utility-scale dominates

11. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Feed-in Tariffs still needed

12. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
% electricity demand
World: 1%

13. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Record Low PPAs in 2014

14. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Where is the market going to?
Global PV Market Report – PV Market Alliance 2015
51 GW est.

15. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
In summary…
Competitiveness ? Which Incentives ? Which Business Models
Market Integration ? Cost of financing Quality & Reliability

16. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
The Next Step in Evolution

17. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
www.iea-pvps.org
Thank you for your attention

18. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Izumi Kaizuka,
IEA PVPS Task 1 expert / RTS Corporation, Japan
Evolution of PV Industry
from IEA PVPS Trends Report
100 kW PV system on top of the Denver Museum of Nature and Science.© Denver Museum Nature and Science / NREL

19. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Contents
• Manufacturing activities in PVPS
countries
• Trends of PV cell/ module production
• Issues for the future growth

20. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Manufacturing activities of PVPS Countries
Polysilicon Ingot/wafer Cell Module
Australia
Austria
Canada
China
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Netherland
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Thailand
USA
Trends Report covers IEA PVPS countries plus
other major PV manufacturing countries such as
Taiwan, Singapore, India, etc.
■>5,000t/year or >1GW/year of production capacity

21. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
2014 showed recovery of the industry

22. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Module production increased

23. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
China: No1 in PV module production & installation

24. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
X-Si PV modules dominates
x-Si ：~92%
TF：~8%
Source: RTS Corporation

25. Evolution of efficiency: x-Si
Average Cell Efficiency
mc : 2012 (17.0%) 2014(17.8%) +4.7%
mono: 2012 (18.6%) 2014(19.4%) +4.3%
Average Module Efficiency (no ARC)
mc : 2012 (15.1%) 2014(15.7%) +4.0%
mono: 2012 (15.6%) 2014(16.4%) +5.1%
Average Module Efficiency (ARC)
mc : 2012 (15.4%) 2014(16.0%) +3.9%
mono: 2012 (15.8%) 2014(16.7%) +5.7%
Source： Dr. Arnulf Jaeger Waldau, EC JRC, “PV technology and Trends”, Sept 2015, PV
and utility workshop, Bangkok

26. Evolution of efficiency: Thin Films
Commercial CdTe modules
Q1/2012 (12.4%)
Q2/2015 (15.4%) +24.2%
Commercial CIGS modules
2010: between 7 and 11%
2015: between 12 and 15.1%
Commercial silicon tf modules
2010: between 5 and 8%
2015: between 5 and 11%
Source： Dr. Arnulf Jaeger Waldau, EC JRC, “PV technology and Trends”, Sept 2015, PV
and utility workshop, Bangkok

27. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Cell production:

28. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Other trends of PV cell/module
production
• Major companies started announce
production enhancement plan in
2014 foreseeing the growth of PV
market
• More and more flexible production
framework to address cost reduction,
local demand and trade conflicts
• Capacity enhancement for higher
efficiency

29. PV module capacity enhancement plan of major PV players
Source: RTS Corporation

30. Manufacturing capacity of major PV playersManufacturingcapacity(MW/year)
Source: RTS Corporation
Trina Solar JA Solar Yingli Solar Canadian
Solar
Hanwha
Qcells
Jinko Solar

31. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Production status: China
Cell/Module manufacturer (or total national
production)
Total Production (MW)
Maximum production
capacity (MW/yr)
Cell Module Cell Module
Trina Solar Co., Ltd 2700 3600 3000 3600
Yingli green energy holding Co., Ltd 3100 3400 3200 4200
Canadian Solar Co., Ltd 1500 2600 1650 2500
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd 3100 2500 3200 2800
JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd 1950 2300 2000 3200
Hanhua Solar One Co., Ltd 1200 1500 1750 2070
Hareon Solar Technology Co.,Ltd 1560 900 1280 1200
EGing Photovoltaic Technology Co.,Ltd 885 878 1000 1000
Chint Solar Co. Ltd 599 830 700 900
RENESOLA LTD - 820 - 1200
Shunfeng Photovaltic International Limited 1000 - 1500 -
Total 33000 35300 47000 63000
Source: Lv Fang, Xu Honghua and Wang Sicheng, “National Survey Report of PV Applications in China 2014”

32. 2015Ranking will change
Rank in
2014
Company
2014 shipment
(MW)(actual)
2015 1Q-3Q
shipment
(MW)(actual)
Full year 2015
(estimate)
1 Trina Solar (China) 3,659 3,961 5.5 - 5.6 GW
2 Yingli Green Energy (China) 3,361 1,942.5 2.35 - 2.4 GW
3
Canadian Solar (Canada/
China)
3,100 3,278 4.15 - 4.2 GW
4 Jinko Solar (China/ Malaysia) 2,862 2,746 4.2 - 4.5 GW
5 JA Solar (China) 2,400 2,428 3.5 - 3.6 GW
6 Sharp (Japan) 2,000 ??? 1 GW
7 ReneSola (China) 1,970 1,224 1.6 - 1.8 GW
8 First Solar (USA/ Malaysia) 1,846 1,916 2.8 - 2.9 GW
9
Hanwha Q CELLS
(China/ Germany/ Malaysia)
1,466 1,966 3.2 - 3.4 GW
10 Kyocera (Japan) 1,400 ??? 1.2 GW
*Some estimates are included.

33. Trade friction over PV cell/module and polysilicon
33
Unfair subsidy
Anti damping
AD, CVD
2012
AD, CVD
(Wacker: MIP)
India
MalaysiaTaiwan
South Korea
Australia
Canada
MIP & Max.amount
AD
AD, CVD
EU
Investigation on
MIP and roopholes
AD,CVD
AD, 2014
No AD
Decide No Ads
New investigation
requested

34. SouthAfrica：
Znshine 150MW
Jinko 120MW
ReneSola 78MW
Europe
Germany ：
Chint 200MW,
acquired Conergy
Poland：
ReneSola 312 MW
Pakistan：
Csun considering new capacity
Japan
RensSola 78MW
Znshine 100MW
EVERSOL：E-SOLAR 20MW
India
Renesolar 246MW
JA Solar/Essel：Cell/ Module 500MW
Trina Solar/Wellspun Energy：Cell /Module 500MW
Canadian Solar /Sun Group： Module
Thailand
Trina Solar 700MW Cell, Module 500MW
Talesun 500MW Cell/module
Gintech（台湾） セル350MW/年
Malaysia
ReneSola 204MW
Jinko Solar 500MW Module/ 450MW Cell
JA Solar 400MW (Cell)
Gintech/Green Energy Technology： Cell
Manufacturing site by Chinese and Taiwanese companies
(Italic: under planning)
Korea
CSun： 200MW (cell)
Brasil：
BYD：400MW
US：
Shunfeng: Acuuired
majority of
Suniva
34

35. Crystalline Silicon
Emerging Production Technologies
• Passivated Emitter Rear Cells (PERC)
• 4 and 5 busbar solar cells (4BB, 5BB)
• Heterojunction Solar Cells
• Bifacial Solar Cells
Possible Efficiency Gain
• PERC: 4-5% relative, 0.7 – 1.0% absolute
• 4BB: about 0.3% absolute

36. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Issues overcapacity

37. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Other issues
• Overcapacity
• Lower margin for manufacturing
– Consolidation will continute
• Financing
– Manufacturing for new technologies
– Recent IPO cases: downstream
companies

38. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
The way forward
• Differentiation
- Products
Performance, reliability,
added-value: PV + HEMS+ Batteries, BIPV
- Customers
- Business models
Towards downstream
Equipment provider to energy provider
Towards upstream???
SolarCity acquired Silevo

39. 39
Press Conference, PVMA Becquerel Institute
39
FUTHER GROWTH IS WAITING
40 GW in 2014  > 50 GW in 2015 
70-90 GW in 2020 (medium-optimistic)

40. Acknowledgement for the support of PVPS activities
Contact : Izumi KAIZUKA, RTS Corporation, kaizuka@rts-pv.com
Thank you for your kind
attention !
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