2. About This Presentation
⢠I put this together from publicly available stats, surveys and
research into Appleâs iPad tablet.
⢠The idea is to provide an overview of the device, as it
prepares to go on sale in the US.
⢠Who am I? UK-based journalist Stuart Dredge. I write for
Mobile Entertainment, Music Ally and other publications.
⢠I also run a daily newsletter, iPhone Games Bulletin, which
covers the iPhone (and now iPad) games industry.
3. Early Sales Estimates
⢠Investor Villageâs AAPL Sanity Board estimated that Apple sold
nearly 120,000 iPads on its first day of pre-orders (Source)
â 69% of those were Wi-Fi only models according to its reckoning
â Sales were split equally between the 16GB, 32GB and 64GB models
⢠Daniel Tello, part of that group, claimed that 240k iPads had
been pre-ordered by Fri-26-Mar (Source)
â These figures donât include reservations for in-store pickup
4. Consumer Buying Intentions
⢠18% of all consumers expressed an interest in buying an iPad,
although that rose to 27% for 18-34 year-olds (NPD Group)
â 9% of all consumers said they were âextremelyâ or âveryâ likely to buy one
in the next six months
⢠27% of 18-34 year-olds expressed an interest in buying one
â 10% of them said they were âextremelyâ or âveryâ likely to buy in the next
six months
â 57% of them said pricing was their main reason to not buy
â 51% said theyâd ârather use a notebook or netbook insteadâ
⢠24% of Apple owners were âextremelyâ or âveryâ interested
â 10% said they were âextremelyâ or âveryâ likely to buy in the next six
months
â 37% of Apple owners cited âliking the Apple brandâ as top reason to buy
5. Consumer Buying Intentions
⢠When comScore surveyed US
internet users in mid-March, 1%
had already pre-ordered an iPad,
while 15% were seriously
considering buying one in the
next six months (Source)
⢠iPadâs awareness and purchase
intention ratings are very similar
to those of Amazonâs Kindle.
6. Likely Consumer Usage
⢠comScore asked US
consumers what theyâd be
most likely to do on an
iPad, with internet and
email the two most
popular choices (Source)
⢠Music, films and books
were quite popular, but
apps were surprisingly low.
7. Likely Consumer Usage
⢠More than half (52.3%) of US smartphone users plan to use a
tablet device to conduct work (Source)
â 48.2% said they plan to watch TV/films
â 35.4% say that plan to play games
⢠A survey by RBC/ChangeWave found that internet and email
are the most popular likely uses (Source)
8. Analyst Predictions
⢠Barclays Capital thinks Apple will sell 1.2m iPads in Q1 2010 (i.e. pre-
orders) and 5m for 2010 as a whole (Source)
⢠BMO Capital predicts 7.2m iPad sales in Appleâs fiscal 2011 (Source)
â BMO also thinks iPad will take 11% of the netbook market in 2010
⢠Canaccord Adams expects 1.2m iPad sales in fiscal 2010, and 3.5m in fiscal
2011 (Source)
⢠Needham & Company predicts 2m sales in fiscal 2010, and 6m in fiscal
2011 (Source)
⢠Piper Jaffray predicts 3-4m sales in iPadâs first 12 months on sale, and
double that the next year (Source)
⢠FBR Capital Markets claims that 5m iPads will be manufactured in the first
half of 2010 (Source)
⢠Broadpoint.AmTech thinks content sales will be 10% of total iPad
hardware revenue by Dec-10, and 30% by Dec-11. (Source)
â The company predicts 4m units in 2010 calendar year
9. iPad Applications
⢠In mid-March, 44% of
apps being tested on
iPad devices were
games according to
Flurry (Source)
⢠The analytics firm had
previously reported
that iPhone project
starts tripled in
January, when the
iPad was unveiled.
10. iPad Gaming
⢠When PocketGamer.biz
analysed its confirmed list
of iPad launch games,
Puzzle was the most
popular genre (Source)
⢠65% of them were iPhone
ports, with indie
developers the biggest
source (see next page)
12. Essential Reading for Developers
⢠Matt Legend Gemmellâs
in-depth blog post on iPad
application design, and user
interface conventions.
⢠Notes on iPad UI conventions
â an excellent 53-photo
Flickr set with notes.
13. Thanks For Reading!
⢠Mobile Entertainmentâs iPad section carries regular news and
analysis of iPad and the tablet market.
⢠If youâre making, investing in or tracking iPad games, my
iPhone Games Bulletin is a free service â read a sample and
sign up if you like it!
⢠Iâve published other presentations on Android; Trends in
iPhone Gaming; iPhone Casual Games; and a comparative
analysis of different app stores.
⢠Contact me: sdredge@gmail.com