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What Is That – Monte Carlo? ,[object Object],where  g(y)  is an arbitrary function,  f(y)  is a probability density function, and A is the range of integration. To obtain an estimate of  E(g) , we pick a number  N  of sample values  (y t )  at random from the probability density function  f(y) .
[object Object],This simple equation is the quintessence of Monte Carlo method:  An integral is interpreted as the average value of a function over an interval that contains a  fixed  number of points chosen in random.
History of The Method ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Example: European Call Option ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Pricing A Caplet  ,[object Object],Where k is the fixed rate; δ  is the a time interval (LIBOR tenor); B t  is a risk-free bond (for t = 0, B t  = 1); B -1 T i-1  is a discounting factor; K = 1/(1+k δ ) is the strike price; B(T i-1 , T i ) is the underlying asset (bond)
Computing Bond Prices From CIR Model ,[object Object],Where r(t) is a short term rate obtained from the model; Y(t,T) and Z(t,T) are deterministic functions defined as follows:
 
The Discounting Factor B Ti-1 -1   The factor which discounts the option price to time 0 is determined from the following equation: Which can be approximated using the trapezoid method as
Generating Short Term Rates Simulation from CIR Model In its discretized form, the Cox Ingersoll Ross model looks the following way: Where  σ ,  θ , and  κ  are deterministic parameters, and W is a normally distributed random number. Given the parameters  σ ,  θ ,  κ , and r(t= 0) one can easily construct an iteration procedure to obtain short term rates in a given interval starting from zero.
[object Object],and the discounting factor as
[object Object],over ALL the sample paths (5000,10000,…75000?) That gives us our E Q ! The following two slides display a few sample paths chosen in random (by me) with their corresponding short rate term structures and bond prices
 
 
 
Effect Of CIR Parameters On Short Term Rates   ,[object Object],The following slide shows sensitivity of short rates to changes in Kappa (all other parameters fixed)
 
[object Object],and the following slide displays the same sample path with three different Thetas
 
[object Object],The following slide displays the same path with three different Sigmas
 
References ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you very much !

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Interest Rate Modeling With Cox Ingersoll Ross

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  • 11. The Discounting Factor B Ti-1 -1 The factor which discounts the option price to time 0 is determined from the following equation: Which can be approximated using the trapezoid method as
  • 12. Generating Short Term Rates Simulation from CIR Model In its discretized form, the Cox Ingersoll Ross model looks the following way: Where σ , θ , and κ are deterministic parameters, and W is a normally distributed random number. Given the parameters σ , θ , κ , and r(t= 0) one can easily construct an iteration procedure to obtain short term rates in a given interval starting from zero.
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  • 25. Thank you very much !

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