Empirical Analysis of 2014 Budget This analysis takes a look at the Nigerian 2014 Budgetary allocations to different Ministries, Departments and Agencies of the Nigerian Sector. A comparative analysis of allocations to the 4 Components as outlined in the Budget is also carried out. A review is carried out to know if this and previous budgets meets the UNDP Recommendation. How well can we ascertain that the Government will cut down on Foreign travels.

1. Analysis of
2014 Budget

2. This analysis takes a look at the Nigerian 2014
Budgetary allocations to different Ministries,
Departments and Agencies of the Nigerian Sector.
A comparative analysis of allocations to the 4
Components as outlined in the Budget is also
carried out.
A review is carried out to know if this and previous
budgets meets the UNDP Recommendation.
How well can we ascertain that the Government
will cut down on Foreign travels.

3. The Nigeria budget is made up of four
components:
 Part A – Statutory Transfers
 Part B – Debts Service
 Part C – Recurrent Expenditure (non-debt)
 Part D – Capital Expenditure
MDA Expenditure
Statutory
Transfer
Debt Service
Recurrent
Expenditure
Capital
Expenditure
Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation

4. Total 2014 National Budget:
N4,642,960,000,000
Statutory
Transfer
Debt Service
Recurrent
Expenditure
Capital
Expenditure
399,687,801,891
1,100,606,836,512
712,000,000,000
2,430,665,361,597

5. Statutory
Transfer
The Federal Government is required
by law to make certain mandatory
expenditures annually in respect of:
NJC
68,000,000,000
NDDC
61,940,000,000
UBEC
70,470,000,000
INEC
45,000,000,000
NASS
150,000,000,000
NHRC
1,350,000,000
PCC
2,927,801,891
399,687,801,891

6. Debt
Service
Domestic
Debts
Whenever the Federal Government spends
more money than the revenues it earns, it
must find the financial resources to pay for
this additional spending.
663,610,000,000
Moneys borrowed
within Nigeria
moneys borrowed from
outside Nigeria
Foreign
Debts
48,390,000,000
712,000,000,000

7. Recurrent
Expenditure
Spending by the Ministries, Departments
and Agencies (MDA) of Government on
Salaries, Pensions & Overheads
Salaries
1,973,418,403,241
Pensions
Overheads
457,246,958,356
2,430,665,361,597

8. Capital
Expenditure
Infrastructure
Capital Expenditure is used to provide infrastructure
such as roads, water and power; fund educational
services such as schools, colleges and universities; and
provide healthcare facilities and services among
others.
Educational
Services
Healthcare
1,100,606,836,512

9. Budget Component
Statutory Transfer
Debt Service
Recurrent Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
UNDP
Recommends
Allocation
399,687,801,891
712,000,000,000
2,430,665,361,597
1,100,606,836,512
%
8.61%
15.34%
52.35%
23.70%
United Nations Development
Programme recommendation
“Allocate 70% of Budget to
Capital Expenditure and 30%
to Recurrent Expenditure.”

10. Budget Component
Capital Expenditure
23.70%
Recurrent Expenditure
Debt Service
Statutory
Transfer
0.00%
52.35%
15.34%
8.61%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%

11. Aggregate Recurrent
Total Capital
Total Allocation
3,542,353,163,488 1,100,606,836,512 4,642,960,000,000
76.3%
23.7%
76.3% of total allocation would be spent on Salaries, Pensions & Overheads while
23.7% goes to Infrastructure, Educational services and Healthcare facilities.
Year
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Recurrent %
67.49%
72.21%
76.20%
59.77%
72.24%
72.99%
65.52%
71.26%
65.71%
80.46%
Capital %
32.51%
27.79%
23.80%
40.23%
27.76%
27.01%
34.48%
28.74%
34.29%
19.54%
Year 2010 was when
Capital Expenditure
got 40% allocation,
so far the highest
ever.

12. "We are very worried that over 70% of
the budget is actually going for recurrent
expenditure and less than 30% on capital
expenditure. No country develops under
such provisions because what grows a
country or builds the economy is the
amount of investments you are making
on infrastructure and other structural
issues that you required to strengthen
your economy”.
Actionaid Country Director, Hussaini Abdu

13. How well does each MDA perform
according to the UNDP Recommendation?
The following MDA (6) fulfills the UNDP recommendation
S/N MDA
1
2
3
4
5
6
Power
Aviation
Water Resources
Transport
Works
Lands & Housing
Recurrent% Capital%
5.44
94.56
19.04
80.96
20.08
79.92
21.78
78.22
22.15
77.85
30.38
69.62
MDA with appreciable Recurrent : Capital Allocation
7
8
9
10
11
Women Affairs
Police Service Commission
Agriculture & Rural Development
Niger-Delta (including NDDC)
Office of NSA
33.95
43.58
47.26
57.80
60.17%
66.05
56.42
52.74
42.20
39.83%

14. Ministry of Power
Year
Recurrent
Capital
Total
Recurrent % Capital %
2014
3,397,810,244
59,051,290,389
62,449,100,633
5.44%
94.56%
2013
4,204,008,698
73,159,378,866
77,363,387,564
5.43%
94.57%
2012
3,116,536,317
70,300,000,000
73,416,536,317
4.25%
95.75%
2011
8,150,616,175
78,100,030,625
86,250,646,800
9.45%
90.55%
2010
3,580,819,527
153,207,074,322
156,787,893,849
2.28%
97.72%
2009
4,965,947,715
88,471,515,074
93,437,462,789
5.31%
94.69%
2008
25,408,533,868
114,375,000,468
139,783,534,336
18.18%
81.82%
2007
3,867,128,061
100,784,441,479
104,651,569,539
3.70%
96.30%
2006
3,382,764,019
74,710,240,083
78,093,004,102
4.33%
95.67%
2014 Budget is the minimum in about 10years. The Power ministry
has consistently allocate more funds to Capital Expenditure even
surpassing the UNDP recommendation, however Nigerians have
not enjoyed commensurate benefit of these allocations. Therefore,
it goes beyond budgeting to actually make the people enjoy the
dividend of Democracy.

15. Ministry of Power
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
Recurrent %
50.00%
Capital %
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006

16. Top MDA with high Recurrent Allocation
S/N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
MDA
Police Formation & Commands
Federal Character Commission
ICPC
Interior
Justice Including NHRC
ICRC
Youth Development
FRC
Education Including UBEC
Petroleum Resources
Defence/Mod/Army/Air Force/Navy
Code of Conduct Tribunal
Information
Trade & Investment
Labour & Productivity
National Population Commission
Mines & Steel Development
Federal Civil Service Commission
Culture & NOA
Health
National Salaries, Incomes & Wages Commission
National Sports Commission
Recurrent %
97.68%
97.26%
97.16%
95.83%
95.10%
94.74%
93.91%
90.95%
89.96%
89.95%
89.92%
89.77%
86.11%
85.32%
84.67%
84.06%
83.92%
82.98%
82.69%
82.36%
80.52%
79.84%
Capital %
2.32%
2.74%
2.84%
4.17%
4.90%
5.26%
6.09%
9.05%
10.04%
10.05%
10.08%
10.23%
13.89%
14.68%
15.33%
15.94%
16.08%
17.02%
17.31%
17.64%
19.48%
20.16%

17. The implication of high Recurrent Expenditure as against
Capital Expenditure is that more funds are used to maintain
Personnel (Salaries, Wages, Allowances, Pension, etc.) while
less funds are reserved for Infrastructural development,
Heath Services and Educational Services.
Recurrent
Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
Nevertheless this huge personnel allocation, our Schools
lack sufficient academic strength, our Hospitals do not
have enough Medical practitioners.

18. Ministry with High Personnel & Overhead Allocation
100.00%
97.68
95.83
95.10
93.91
89.96
90.00%
89.95
89.92
86.11
85.32
84.67
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
13.89
10.04
10.00%
2.32
4.17
4.90
Interior
Justice
10.05
14.68
15.33
10.08
6.09
0.00%
Police
Youth
Education Petroleum
Defence Information Trade & Inv. Labour &
Prod.

19. How does this 2014
Budget compare
with past years?
(Statutory transfer, Debt
Services, Recurrent &
Capital Expenditure)

20. Overall Budget from 2004 - 2014
YEAR
STATUTORY
TRANSFERS
DEBTS
SERVICE
RECURRENT
CAPITAL
EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE
2014
399,687,801,891
712,000,000,000
2,430,665,361,597
1,100,606,836,512
4,642,960,000,000
2013
387,976,000,000
591,764,000,000
2,386,024,770,349
1,621,455,655,252
4,987,220,425,601
2012
397,929,101,917
559,580,000,000
2,471,814,067,335
1,319,777,651,919
4,749,100,821,171
2011
196,115,163,718
542,381,827,452
2,481,705,176,915
1,005,989,391,174
4,226,191,559,259
2010
180,279,158,994
497,071,797,452
2,077,358,560,347
1,853,906,761,420
4,608,616,278,213
2009
140,693,160,103
283,649,892,795
1,649,429,453,681
796,737,536,101
2,870,510,042,680
2008
187,600,000,000
372,200,000,000
1,259,121,253,061
673,155,465,876
2,492,076,718,937
2007
102,300,000,000
326,000,000,000
1,056,563,540,997
781,530,882,480
2,266,394,423,477
2006
86,460,000,000
289,500,000,000
961,108,775,596
539,233,587,755
1,876,302,363,351
2005
89,600,000,000
355,723,000,000
737,330,997,094
617,284,246,044
1,799,938,243,138
2004
532,324,500,000
369,369,000,000
539,286,472,751
349,868,371,837
1,790,848,344,588
TOTAL

21. Statutory Transfer from 1999 to 2014
NJC
YEAR
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
NDDC UBEC INEC
STATUTORY TRANSFERS
399,687,801,891
387,976,000,000
397,929,101,917
196,115,163,718
180,279,158,994
140,693,160,103
187,600,000,000
102,300,000,000
86,460,000,000
89,600,000,000
532,324,500,000
NASS NHRC PCC
TOTAL
4,642,960,000,000
4,987,220,425,601
4,749,100,821,171
4,226,191,559,259
4,608,616,278,213
2,870,510,042,680
2,492,076,718,937
2,266,394,423,477
1,876,302,363,351
1,799,938,243,138
1,790,848,344,588
%
8.61
7.78
8.38
4.64
3.91
4.90
7.53
4.51
4.61
4.98
29.72
2010 seems to be a golden year; 2014 Statutory
transfer shows a growing trend from 2010.

22. Debt Services from 1999 to 2014
Domestic Debts
Foreign Debts
YEAR
DOMESTIC
FOREIGN
DEBTS SERVICE
TOTAL
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
663,610,000,000
543,376,000,000
511,980,000,000
503,465,330,805
463,155,300,805
227,809,018,411
306,200,000,000
48,390,000,000
48,388,000,000
47,600,000,000
38,916,496,647
33,916,496,647
55,840,874,384
66,000,000,000
265,000,000,000
220,000,000,000
185,749,000,000
185,769,000,000
61,000,000,000
69,500,000,000
169,974,000,000
183,600,000,000
712,000,000,000
591,764,000,000
559,580,000,000
542,381,827,452
497,071,797,452
283,649,892,795
372,200,000,000
326,000,000,000
289,500,000,000
355,723,000,000
369,369,000,000
4,642,960,000,000
4,987,220,425,601
4,749,100,821,171
4,226,191,559,259
4,608,616,278,213
2,870,510,042,680
2,492,076,718,937
2,266,394,423,477
1,876,302,363,351
1,799,938,243,138
1,790,848,344,588
From 2009; there has been a growing
increase in the Debt Services allocation,
current allocation stands at 15.34%.
%
15.34
11.87
11.78
12.83
10.79
9.88
14.94
14.38
15.43
19.76
20.63

23. Recurrent & Capital Expenditure from 2004 - 2014
Year
2014
Total Recurrent
Total Capital
Total Budget
% Growth
3,542,353,163,488
1,100,606,836,512
4,642,960,000,000
-6.90
2013
3,365,764,770,349
1,621,455,655,252
4,987,220,425,601
5.01
2012
3,429,323,169,252
1,319,777,651,919
4,749,100,821,171
12.37
2011
3,220,202,168,085
1,005,989,391,174
4,226,191,559,259
-8.30
2010
2,754,709,516,793
1,853,906,761,420
4,608,616,278,213
60.55
2009
2,073,772,506,579
796,737,536,101
2,870,510,042,680
15.19
2008
1,818,921,253,061
673,155,465,876
2,492,076,718,937
9.96
2007
1,484,863,540,997
781,530,882,480
2,266,394,423,477
20.79
2006
1,337,068,775,596
539,233,587,755
1,876,302,363,351
4.24
2005
1,182,653,997,094
617,284,246,044
1,799,938,243,138
0.51
2004
1,440,979,972,751
349,868,371,837
1,790,848,344,588
The 2014 Capital Expenditure of 1.1tn is compared
to that of Year 2010, if inflation is put into
consideration (Deflator of 3.71), the actual/Real
Capital Expenditure budget for 2014 is
296,659,524,666.

24. Summary of 2014 Budget Components
Recurrent Expenditure
(MDA Salaries,
Pensions &
Overhead costs)
Capital Expenditure
(Infrastructure, Debts Service
Educational
Services &
Health)
(Foreign and
Domestic Debt)
Statutory Transfer
52.35%
23.70%
15.34% 8.61%

25. Foreign travel by government
personnel will be further curtailed.
This directive shall apply to all
Ministries, Departments and
Agencies of the Federal
Government.
(President Goodluck Jonathan)
Jan 1, 2014 Presidential Press Release

26. Government Allocation to Foreign Travels (2012 – 2014)
MDA
2012
2013
2014
Grand Total 15,310,545,925 19,621,732,323 14,777,749,467
Total of 14.78Billion has been allocated to INTERNATIONAL
TRAVEL & TRANSPORT: TRAINING & INTERNATIONAL
TRAVEL & TRANSPORT: OTHERS
Top 10 Ministries with High Allocation
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ministry of Defence
Presidency
Office of National Security Adviser
Ministry of Education
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Trade & Investment
Ministry of Science & Technology
Office of SGF
Ministry of Justice
Total
5,196,552,734
1,748,368,642
1,545,992,529
1,012,834,421
585,139,210
496,531,468
307,370,808
279,409,490
277,831,400
251,114,363

27. Data source:
- Nigeria Budget office (www.budgetoffice.gov.ng)
Analysis by: Wale Micaiah (M.Sc., CISM, CCNP-Sec, MCSA)
e: walegate@yahoo.com
m: 08078001800
b: walemicaiah.blog.com
w. www.statisense.com
Freely share, freely use and freely acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah