Africa Market Update - August 2016

2SEPTEMBER 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
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Table of Contents
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AUGUST 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA
Cover image: http://www.blog.kpmgafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/megacities1.jpg
www.stratlinkglobal.com
NIGERIA 4
KENYA 5
TANZANIA 6
UGANDA 8
RWANDA 9
GHANA 7

3AUGUST 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
Company
902 Million
179 Million
20.0 Million
25.5 Million
797 Million
554,360,000
65.0 Million
25.3 Million
5.0 Million
1.2 Million
265 Million
320,000
40,000
19.9 Million
Capital Invested by Country (USD)
AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE JANUARY 2016 - JULY 2016
Capital Invested by Sectors
46,000
2.7 Million
82,000
20.4 Million
7.8 Million
75 Million
11.8 Million
146.6 Million
Capital Invested by Deal Type
Deals Snapshot
• On July 15th, 2016, the government of Ethiopia sold a 40.0% stake of NaƟonal Tobacco Enterprise to Japan Tobacco
• On July 14th, 2016, ConocoPhillips sold 35.0% stake in the Three ConƟguous Blocks (Senegal) to Woodside Petroleum for USD
430.0 Million
• On May 12th, 2016, Emerging Markets Payment Holdings was acquired by Network InternaƟonal through a USD 340.0 Million LBO
Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa
South Africa
Ethiopia
Egypt
Namibia
Uganda
Mozambique
Rwanda
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Kenya
Madagascar
Tanzania
MauriƟus
Morocco
Tunisia
Liberia
Nigeria
120,000
322.0 Million
430 Million Senegal
Congo
50,000Zimbabwe
Eritrea
Central African Republic
Malawi
Zambia
Sierra Leone
Ghana
Secondary TransacƟon - Private... Mergers & AcquisiƟon..
Growth & Expansion ..................... Buyout/LBO .................
Add-on ............................................. Corporate DivesƟture ....
AcquisiƟon Financing ...................... PIPE ................................
Asset AcquisiƟon ............................. Others .............................
26.7% 16.7%
12.7% 12.7%
7.6% 7.4%
2.6% 2.3%
1.5% 9.8%
4.4%CommunicaƟons
& Networking
4.1%Commercial Banks
13.3%Others
15.4%Commercial
Services
13.6%Retail Healthcare 2.9%
Metals, Minerals
& Mining
11.9%
Metals, Minerals
& Mining
5.9%
2.5%PharmaceuƟcals
& Biotech
Consumer
Non-Durables
26.0%
2.3%
1.5%
26.7%
16.7%
12.7%
12.7%
7.6%
7.4%
2.6%
9.8%

Company
Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate Slides
Further
Manufacturing continues to punch below its
weight with the capacity utilization rate having
fallen to 52.7% in Q1 2016 compared to 60.5%
in Q1 2015. This is attributable to challenges that
have been experienced with regard to foreign
exchange risks as well as energy supply shortages
that have constrained the sector’s performance.
Whereas monetary policy adjustments are likely
to ease accessibility of foreign currency to the
favor of manufacturers, the weakened Naira raises
the challenge of higher cost of factor inputs. We
expect this to continue inflicting a drag of the
aggregate economy through Q4 2016, presenting
additional headwinds for policy makers to grapple
with.
Deteriorating Conditions Threaten Risk Outlook
We maintain a cautious position over the
country’s political risk environment in view
of potential spill-overs from an adverse
macroeconomic environment. Inflation has
soared to a decade-long high of 16.5% in June
2016, undermining households’ spending power
amidst an environment of rising unemployment.
Additionally, the economy stares at the threat of
contraction in 2016 as growth engines such as the
manufacturing sector suffer stagnation thereby
dragging aggregate momentum.
Between 2014 and 2015, aggregate household
spending posted a 22.4% decline to USD 203.8
Billion, as consumers adopted belt tightening
measures to weather the economic downturn.
If left unaddressed, these pressures could begin
manifesting in the socio-political domain with
citizens growing dissatisfied with the status quo.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
NIGERIA
Naira Narrows Margin between Official and
Parallel Exchange Rate
The divide between the official and parallel
exchange rates continues to narrow following
abandonment of the currency peg in June 2016.
In July 2016, the Naira averaged 285.0 units of
exchange to the greenback in the official market
against 352.4 in the parallel market a trend that
is likely to prolong through August 2016 in view
of removal of limits to bid-offer spreads in the
foreign exchange market on July 18th, 2016 . The
following are key points to observe:
• In line with our expectation, the Central Bank
sent a hawkish signal in the July 25th – 26th,
2016 meeting in a bid to support the local
unit against pressures. This is likely to be trend
through Q4, 2016 as the devalued currency is
watched closely to forestall potential risks to
the economy
• Thenarrowingdividebetweenthetwoexchange
rates places the government at a better position
to align monetary policy with developments
defining the business environment
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Short-term Investors Jittered by Inflation
Between June 2016 and July 2016, yields nudged
upwards in the short-term end of the curve while
posting marginal rise in the medium to long term.
Movement in the short-term is informed by
widespread concern over the unrelenting rise in
inflation which is likely to be accelerated further
by the weakened Naira.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows Crosses
USD 1.0 Billion in 2015
Despite posting one of the slowest year-on-year
growth in ten years, FDI inflows crossed the USD
1.0 Billion in 2015. Kenya’s FDI as a percentage of
the East Africa region’s (including Ethiopia) has
steadily risen over the last decade from 1.3% in
2005 to 21.5% in 2015. We expect this growth to
continue as Kenya’s diversified economy places it
strategically as an alternative market as investment
flows shift from being predominantly resource-
targeted.
In Q1 2016, the economy accelerated by 5.9%,
90.0 bps higher than the same period in 2015,
with key engines of growth being the hospitality
and construction sectors which grew by 12.1%
and 9.9%, respectively. These sectors continue to
generate new investment opportunities that will
support growth in FDI in the near term. We remain
concerned over slow growth in the manufacturing
sector, having expanded by 3.6% in Q1 2016 down
from 4.1% in the same period in 2015, which is
undermining a potentially strong growth engine in
the economy.
UNCTAD Conference Cements Kenya’s Position
Kenya’s hosting of the fourteenth United Nations
Conference on Trade and Development in July
2016 serves to further solidify its position as a
trade and commercial services hub within the
East and Central Africa region. This conference
came on the back of the country’s hosting of
the Global Entrepreneurship Summit in 2015 in
which outgoing USA President, Barrack Obama,
visited the country. The conference put the wider
Eastern Africa region on the map as the Western
and Southern regions grapple with the threat of
the general economic downturn spilling over into
the socio-political environment. In 2015, Ghana
witnessed protests over the energy crisis whilst in
Nigeria, the slash in fuel subsidies has threatened
to elicit protests from a section of unions.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
KENYA
Shilling to Face Benign Pressure
In January 2016, we tabled prognosis for a broadly
favorable economic environment characterized,
principally, by a resilient shilling whilst facing risks
from fiscal consolidation challenges. The shilling
has been trending within our target band (101.0
– 103.0) for the past six months with a discernible
downtrend over the last three months. This can
be ascribed to a blend of short and medium-term
factors:
Short-term:GeneralAnticipationofExpansionary
Policy
As indicated in our July 2016 update, this is a likely
reflection of a rise in liquidity, notably between
June and July 2016 that came on the back of a
dovish signal from the Central Bank in view of the
100.0 bps slash in the benchmark rate, to 10.5%,
in May 2016. Anticipation of further expansion
between Q3 and Q4 2016, against a tightening
environment in advanced economies, is also
bound to be informing deceleration in foreign
capital inflows.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Long-Term Yields Rise on Low Demand and
Inflation Risk
Yields declined in the medium-term end of the
curve (1 Year - 5 years) whilst rising in the long-
term end. The trend suggests that the 80.0 bps
in inflation between May 2016 and June 2016 to
5.8% could be compelling investors to revise their
risk assessment with regard to medium to long-
term expectations whilst remaining confident of
the short-term. Demand for medium to long-term
papers has also been subdued lately, effectively
depressing yields.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Company
Tanzania’s Exit from Trade Pact a Test to Regional
Integration
TheexitofTanzaniafromtheEconomicPartnership
Agreement (EPA) that was expected to be signed
in the just concluded United Nations International
Conference on Trade (UNCTAD) in Nairobi by
the European Union (EU) and other East Africa
Community (EAC) member states serves as a
litmus test to the regional integration process. The
EPA has faced opposition from both Tanzania and
Uganda, on the back of what the two countries
have termed as unfavorable trade terms. Tanzania
cites economic and constitutional uncertainties of
the exit of Britain from the EU which supposedly
weakens its bargaining power since Britain is
Tanzania’s core market from the EU. This threatens
to widen the wedge splitting EAC member states
in the perceived factions of those willing to further
the integration agenda versus those unwilling to
do so. However, in the long run, the key detriment
stemming from Tanzania’s action is likely to be
deceleration of the EAC integration process in
view of distrust and inconsistency in the general
application of agreements by member states.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Magufuli takes the Mantle as CCM Chair
President John Magufuli has taken over the
mantle as ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM)
chairman from former President, Jakaya Kikwete,
a responsibility that may prove to be one of
his toughest political tests yet, given recurrent
criticism of the party’s members in public offices
over corruption allegations. Magufuli is now
saddled with the challenge of providing leadership
to a party which is still emerging from an election
cycle that saw internal dissent threaten its
dominance in the political landscape.
TANZANIA
Up-Turn in Gold Prices Promises to Relieve Fiscal
Pressures
We could witness improved fiscal conditions in the
medium to long-term if the up-turn in gold prices
in the global market is sustained over the coming
months. This development is likely to trigger
investors’ revision of a broadly negative position
of the country’s fiscal risk position. It could also
prop Tanzania’s pursued credit ratings that should
pave the way for the country’s debut Eurobond
issuance. We expect the general price trend of
gold to continue heading north through Q3 2016
based on the following consideration:
• Perceived turbulence and uncertainty in global
markets that is like to continue pushing investors
towards perceived safe assets
• With the greenback having moderated, the
price of gold is likely to remain on the uptick
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Low Appetite for T-Bills on Tight Liquidity
Low appetite for treasury bills prevailed through
July2016 on the back of tight liquidityin the money
market that undermined investor participation in
theshort-termgovernmentborrowinginstruments
leading to under-subscription of auctions with the
exception of the 364-Day tenure. Consequently,
yields in the short-term market continued rising
with the interbank rate rising by 80.0 bps, month-
on-month, to average 13.8% in July 2016. Similarly,
inflation registered mild uptick to 5.5% in June
2016 from 5.2% recorded in May 2016.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Company
Ghana Emerges as Largest FDI Recipient in West
Africa
2015 marked the first year since 1990 in which
Ghana attracted more FDI than Nigeria and
emerged as the top FDI destination in West
Africa. Over the last decade, Ghana’s allure as
a destination has grown with the economy’s
proportion of the region’s FDI inflow rising from
2.0% in 2005 to 32.3% in 2015 . This is a favorable
indicator for a country that has been grappling
with an adverse macroeconomic environment for
the last two years as it signals investor confidence.
Ghana’s performance in FDI attraction in 2015 can
also be ascribed to Nigeria’s economic downturn
andhotlycontestedgeneralelection.We,however,
expect that 2016 will be characterized by relative
slowdown in FDI inflows in Ghana, a trend that has
been witnessed historically within electoral cycles.
Growth Forecast Signals Primacy of Economy in
Election
Downward revision of the economy’s growth
forecast for 2016 (please see Economic Outlook)
augments our view that the country heads to
the November 2016 election with the state
of the economy standing out as the key issue.
The economy’s slowdown, high cost of living
characterized by runaway inflation and energy
crisis are likely to make the forthcoming poll a
referendum on the National Democratic Congress’
economic reform agenda. Other issues that are
bound to elicit interest in the run-up to the poll
include corruption and security.
Opposition Angle for Hotly Contested Election
In May 2016, the National Democratic Party
elected former first lady, Nana Konadu Agyeman-
Rawlings, as its presidential candidate, casting her
as the change candidate and potentially riding on
an established political brand. On the other hand,
Nana Akufo-Addo is the flag bearer for the New
Patriotic Party, creating the scenario of a re-run of
the 2012 contest with incumbent president, John
Dramani Mahama.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GHANA
Growth Target Reviewed Downward as
Headwinds Prevail
In a move bound to rattle investor confidence
further, the Ministry of Finance has slashed
anticipated economic growth for 2016 to 3.2%,
220.0 bps lower than earlier projected. StratLink
Africa Ltd views the following as the key headwinds
facing Ghana’s economy:
• Runaway Inflation
The erosion of purchasing power by a steady
rise in inflation presents a key threat to Ghana’s
economy. The predominant concern is not that
Ghana is experiencing an episode of double digit
inflation but that inflation has surged untamed for
a period stretching three years. Reforms such as
the scrapping of fuel subsidies, with media reports
indicating the phasing out was due for completion
at the end of Q3 2015, are bound to be amongst
the key drivers of inflation due to the adjustment of
price levels in the economy to reflect this change.
• Election Cycle and Cedi Pressures
We expect the tightening cycle to be sustained
through 2016 with the general election set for
November 2016 approaching and threatening a
rise in pressures on the Cedi. The local unit has
been ceding ground to the greenback inching
closertofourunitsofexchangetotheUSD.Growing
weakness of the Cedi could further deteriorate
inflation in the coming quarters triggered by pass
through effects.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
T-Bill Yields Flat-Line
Short-term yields have flat-lined after the decline
posted in Q4, 2015 with the 91 Day, 182 Day
and one year note averaging 22.8%, 24.6% and
23.0%, respectively, in June 2016. This has come
on the back of a similar trend in the interbank
rate suggesting stable liquidity conditions after an
episode of tightening between Q3 2015 and Q4
2015.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Company
Economy’s Loss of Momentum to Undermine
Investor Confidence
We expect investors to adopt a gradually cautious
stance on the country given the economy’s loss of
growth momentum. The economy grew by a paltry
3.5% in Q1 2016 compared to 5.4% in the same
period in 2015. Key areas of interest for investors
are likely to be the following:
• Agriculture: At 0.3% growth in Q1, 2016,
the sector, constituting about 25.0% of GDP,
has effectively stagnated and is bound to
drag the economy further in 2016. This has
had a knock-on effect on the manufacturing
sector, which is driven considerably by agro-
processing
• Manufacturing and Industry: The sector
grew by 2.6% in the period under review,
compared to 9.7% in Q1 2015. A major risk to
the sector, further to the general slowdown
in agriculture, has been resurgence of an
unstable environment in the key export
market of South Sudan that is likely to have
depressed demand for Uganda’s exports.
Another risk factors has been a relatively
weak local currency which has translated in
expensive factor inputs for the sector
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
External Environment: Resurgence of Lord’s
Resistance Army Threat
Reports that the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is on
resurgence in Central African Republic, abducting
at least 344 people in the first six months of 2016,
could potentially complicate Uganda’s plans to
withdraw its troops from the country. LRA has
been a source of recurrent strife in North Uganda
and its resurgence in Central African Republic
could undermine stability in Uganda. Uganda now
faces the twin challenge of addressing the inflow
of refuges following deteriorated conditions in
South Sudan and maintaining watch over the
North’s susceptibility to the LRA resurgence.
UGANDA
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Inflation Rises on Low Rainfall
After a general decline since December 2015,
inflation edged up in June 2016 to 5.9% from
5.5% in the preceding month and 5.1% in April,
2016. Inflation, which shot up after the currency
weakenedsteeplylastyear,hadstabilizedataround
5.0% allowing the central bank to start easing
the benchmark rate (the benchmark rate was
slashed for the second time in the year by 100.0
bps to 15.0% in June 2016). The recent increase
in inflation has been attributed to an increase in
energy, fuel and utilities (EFU) inflation which rose
by 6.5% in June 2016, 100.0 bps higher than the
previous month’s increase. This can be ascribed to
a general uptick in global oil prices that has seen
the OPEC Basket average price rise from USD 26.5
in January 2016 to USD 45.9 in June 2016.
Food Index on the Rise
However, the food index which accounts for 28.5%
of the Consumer Price Index, continued trending
downwards but with signs of rising recording a
1.3% decline in June 2016 compared to the larger
5.0% in May 2015.
Lingering Inflationary Pressure from below
Average Rainfall
Owing to the projected poor crop harvest
attributable to below average rainfall that has
been ongoing since May 2016, we anticipate
further rise in the food index. Uganda is reported
to have recorded a decline in both value and
volume of coffee exports in May 2016 attributed to
a decrease in short-rain patterns which hampered
the final yield.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Yields Decline on Relative Liquidity Tightening
Liquidity tightening was maintained in the money
market on the back of depreciation by the shilling.
The interbank rate rose by 50.0 bps to 14.2% in
June 2016 pointing towards efforts by government
to stem further depreciation of the local unit.

Company
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
SMEs Receive Boost from New Investment Fund
The Development Bank of Rwanda (BRD) has
signed a USD 1.8 Million guarantee facility with
the African Solidarity Fund to support small-
and-medium enterprises (SMEs) with medium
to long-term projects in the real estate, energy,
and education sectors. African Solidarity Fund
facilitates investment projects that support
economic development among its member states,
as well as those that create more jobs and help
reduce poverty. Rwanda has been keen to enter
into agreements aimed at leveraging funds
to support development of the private sector
through provision of financial security as it looks
to maintain a pivotal position in the region.
Cracks Emerge in Exile-Based RNC
Rwanda’s political environment remains stable
as it moves closer to the 2017 election with the
likelihood that Kagame’s reign will continue due to
public support and a weak, almost non-existent,
opposition. The country’s opposition is bound to
remain weak since efforts to block constitutional
amendments by the Green Party were denied by
the Supreme Court. The lone opposition party has
been receiving a boost from Rwanda’s National
Congress (RNC), an opposition party in exile
formed by former close allies of President Kagame
which announced, in June 2016, a split into a new
party called New RNC, further weakening the little
opposition left in Rwanda. Despite the weakening
opposition which generally undermines the
principles of democracy, we assert that continued
political stability relative to its peers in the region
may afford Rwanda the chance to play a more
prominent role in the East Africa Community.
RWANDA
Central Bank Maintains Key Repo Rate at 6.5%
The Central Bank of Rwanda has maintained an
expansionary monetary policy, holding the key
repo rate at 6.5% on June 28th, 2016(held since
June 2014), signaling perceived stability in the
monetary environment having managed to contain
inflation within the bank’s medium target of 5.0%.
The accommodative policy stance is deemed
prudent despite looming short to medium-term
inflationary pressures on the back of a volatile
exchange rate and a slight uptick in oil prices;
crude oil prices have been on a steady rise to USD
43.7 per barrel after plunging to a historic low
below USD 30.0 per barrel at the start of the year.
Investors, however, are bound to hold a favorable
view of the economy in view of increased credit to
the private sector.
Lurking Inflationary Risks on the Back of a
Volatile Franc
The local unit has been on a general slide over the
last one month losing grip of resilience exhibited
in the first half of 2016. This has, in part, been
responsible for the surge in inflation from 2.3% in
May 2016 to 5.5% in June 2016.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Government Borrowing Rises as Liquidity
Remains Unchanged
Government borrowing reversed the downtrend
witnessed in recent months, to rise by 46.5%
between May and June, 2016. On the other hand,
liquidity conditions held steady with the interbank
rate remaining unchanged at 5.9% in June 2016.
Minimal movement in the interbank rate suggests
the government is, at present, confident of
its ability to cushion the Franc from pressure
especially in view of the IMF Credit Facility.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Company
StratLink in the News
Konstantin Makarov provided commentary on prospects for investors targeting emerging markets:
Please click the button to view the full article
Konstantin Makarov provided commentary on two sectors that are bound to be of great interest to Africa focused investors:
Our analysis of Kenya’s monetary policy environment in the remaining quarters of 2016 was cited:

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13August 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
ContactDetails
STRATLINK AFRICA
StratLink - Africa, Limited.
Delta Riverside, Block 4,
4th Floor, Riverside Drive,
Nairobi, Kenya
nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com
www.stratlinkglobal.com
+254202572792
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Africa Market Update - August 2016

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