AACIMP 2009 Summer School lecture by Yoshio Matsuki. "Environmental Externalities of Energy Options - Basics and Applications" course. 6th hour.

1. Externalities, Global Warming
Effects
Y. Matsuki
August 14, 2009, at 15:00 a.m.
Presented at the NTUU “KPI”

2. Basic approaches for estimating the
global climate change impacts are?
Estimate the CO2 and other
greenhouse gas emissions
Use these estimates in a global
climate model to estimate the global
temperature rise
Use the temperature rise in an effects
(impacts) model to estimate the
possible impacts and damage

3. Potential impacts of global warming
Response of vegetation
Increases in crops and forest growth
associated with enhanced
atmospheric CO2 concentration
Response of agriculture
Response of managed forest and
grasslands
Water resources

4. Potential impacts of global warming
Marine and coastal environments
Natural landscapes and ecosystems
Human health
Industry and energy
Coastal settlements and structures
Importance of adaptation

5. Response in vegetation
Is quantitative response function for
temperature well established?
No.
Are potential CO2-temperature
interactions in plant response
understood?
No, even more poorly understood.
One more important issue?
Water, moisture

6. Increases in crops and forest
growth associated with enhanced
atmospheric CO2 concentration
What is it?
Beneficial effect of the global
warming.
Fertilizer effect – mitigate the impact
- Positive effect on agriculture
Indirect effect – weed, pest, insect
Others – nitrogen and other nutrients

7. Response of agriculture
Positive impact
Drought, flood
High interest rates, low price,
changing consumer preference
Adaptation?
Out put in 2030 – Cline – 10% loss
Kane 13,000 million USD,
Adam 34,000 million USD

8. Response of managed forest and
grasslands
Do trees more ability to adapt?
No. Trees have long lifetime, so less
adaptable then agricultural crops.
Young trees may be.
But middle aged trees are problem.
How the forests in future look?
Different. – Musselman and Fox

9. Response of water resources
Regional change in precipitation
Impacts on surface/ground water
Are these easy to quantify?
No.
Adaptive project – what are they?
Dams, canals
Engineered improvement in efficiency
of crops, tech. innovation in industry.

10. Response of marine and coastal
environment
Are they adaptive?
No, least adaptive options exist.
Nature is slower in adapting than human.
What are the adaptive measure of Sea level
rise?
Dykes and sea walls
However, ecological and economic impacts
Is sea level rise fast?
Rather slow. --- general view

11. Response of natural landscapes and
ecosystems
Are successful adaptation likely for
them?
No. Less likely.
Because
Time scale of global climate change is
rapid then the nature’s
Isolation of natural ecosystem by
agricultural and urban land.

12. Response to human health
Remarkably adaptable?
Change distribution of disease, and
indirect health impacts.
Industrialized countries - adaptable
Poorer countries

14. Economic valuation of impacts of
global climate change
Estimates of economic damages by
Nordhaus and Cline
Illustrative estimates of damages
Summary of estimates from several
studies
Uncertainty in estimates

15. Estimate of economic damages by
Nordhaus and Cline
Cline – only market effect
Doubling CO2, 2.5°C temperature rise
Without aggressive policy, additional 7.5°C
above 2.5°C, doubling CO2 in 300 years.
Non linear damage function from 10°C back to
2.5°C warming.
Nordhaus – with non-market effect
Summary is in the next Tale XXVI.
Reilly and Richards point out:
Cline and Nordhaus point to a loss of World GDP
about 1%

17. Illustrative estimates of damages
Reilly and Richards
Global warming potential index
On agricultural impacts estimated by
Kane
Fertilization benefits

19. Summary of estimates from several
studies
Fankhauser --- the best?
240,000 deaths annually from all global
warming impacts
Value of statistical life = 0.1 million USD
Hohmeyer and Gartner
Less moisture in soil lower the
agriculture
45 million deaths per year from
starvation alone
Value of statistical life = 1 million USD

22. Uncertainty in estimates
Non-market impacts
Sensitivity of damage estimates to
different assumption
Time paths of emissions
Improve understanding on economic
damages.