Julien Le Nestour, Worldwide IT Innovation Manager, Schlumberger

How to reframe the ROI dilemma for Social
Media using Return On Attention (ROA)

Julien Le Nestour

@jnestour | coreedges.com
Social Media Innovation 2010 | London - June 10

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Organizational Management
Strategy Consulting

Strategy Consulting

M&A

Consulting Consulting

IT “Innovation” M&A

Problem 1:
Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual
Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative
programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that
the exact scientiﬁc estimate of the consequences of the programs
are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people
will be saved and 2/3 probability that no people will be saved.

Which of the two programs would you favor ?

This slide is intentionally blank

Problem 2:
Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual
Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative
programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that
the exact scientiﬁc estimate of the consequences of the programs
are as follows:

If Program C is adopted 400 people will die.

If Program D is adopted, there is 1/3 probability that nobody will
die, and 2/3 probability that 600 people will die.

Which of the two programs would you favor ?

Framing Effects: the Framing of Outcomes

Risk Risk
adverse seeking
72% A
Problem 1 Framed as
28% B 72% 28%
gains

22% C Framed as
Problem 2 22% 78%
78% D loss

A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, Science, 1981

Framing Effects: the Framing of Outcomes

Risk Risk
adverse seeking
72% A
Problem 1 Framed as
28% B 72% 28%
gains

22% C Framed as
Problem 2 22% 78%
78% D loss

“Choices involving gains are often risk averse and
choices involving losses are often risk taking.”
gains = current achievements
losses = current value potential not realized

➡ to change: make losses concrete
➡ status quo is very attractive
A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, Science, 1981

Agenda

1. Macro-Trend: Attention is the scarcest resource
2. Employees are optimizing their scarce resources
3. Understand ROA at individual level
4. Measure aggregated and weighted ROA at org. level
5. Take decisions based on ROA
6. In practice: video sharing and micro-messaging
7. ROA and the eﬃciency of social media

Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing

Macro-Trend: attention is the - increasingly - scarcest resource Attention

Measuring the forces of
long-term change
The 2009 Shift Index

Deloitte Center for the Edge
John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang
Davison
long-term change
The 2009 Shift Index Core Research Team
Duleesha Kulasooriya Tamara Samoylova
Brent Dance Mark Astrinos
Deloitte Center for the Edge Dan Elbert
John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang Davison

Core Research Team
Duleesha Kulasooriya
Tamara Samoylova
Brent Dance
Mark Astrinos
Dan Elbert

Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm

Exponential increase in fundamental ICTs - 1 Current situation
Attention

Exhibit 15: Computing Cost Performance (1992-2008)

1000

$222
$ per 1 MM transistors

100

10

1
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$0.27
0

Source: Leading technology research vendor

Even if there is a gap between silicon technology and
Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/ will have disproportionate
disproportionately made,
whatever comes next, Moore points out that it will “not
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm impact. Already today, we have seen two students from
be the end of the
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 world…You just make bigger chips.”9 coreedges.com
Stanford invent a search algorithm that forms the basis
licensing

Over time, the Shift Index will look for changes in storage’s would take you around the earth 2,200 times.”12
performance or cost curves, but we expect this metric to During this time, the compounding effects of technology situation
Exponential increase in fundamental ICTs - 3 Current
Attention
be highly persistent over time. As a recent industry report innovation, competitive pressures, market demand, and

Exhibit 16: Storage Cost Performance (1992-2008)

1000 $569

100
$ per Gigabyte (GB)

10 11
John
Diverse
Univers
2008),
collater
1
explodi
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12
Quot
Storage
0 ZDNet A
$0.13 zdnetas
Source: Leading technology research vendor specialr
800011
(created
2009 Shift Index Measuring the forces

bandwidth cost/performance. Like computing, the bandwidth cost/performance curve
has persistently decreased over time. According to an
Exponential increase in fundamental ICTs - 2
Given the impossibility of devising a single metric that analysis done by a leading technology research vendor,14situation
Current
Attention

measures bandwidth across the Internet, the Shift Index the cost of 1,000 Mbps (megabits per second), which
measures bandwidth cost/performance in the data center refers to data transfer speed, dropped 10 times from over
ﬁber channel. $1,197 in 1999 to $130 in 2008.

Exhibit 17: Bandwidth Cost Performance (1999-2008)

10000

$1,197
1000
$ per 1,000 Mbps

100 $130

10

1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Leading technology research vendor

Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/ 14
F
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm ple
Me

Attention available is decreasing massively Current situation
Attention

Exhibit 15: Computing Cost Performance (1992-2008) Exhibit 15: Computing Cost Performance (1992-2008) Exhibit 15: Computing Cost Performance (1992-2008)

1000 1000 1000

Exponential perf. increase in $222 $222 $222



100 100 100

10 10 10

fundamental ICTs 1
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$0.27 $0.27 $0.27
0 0 0

Source: Leading technology research vendor Source: Leading technology research vendor Source: Leading technology research vendor

Even if there is a gap between silicon technology and disproportionately made, will have disproportionate Even if there is a gap between silicon technology and disproportionately made, will have disproportionate Even if there is a gap between silicon technology and disproportionately made, will have disproportionate
whatever comes next, Moore points out that it will “not impact. Already today, we have seen two students from whatever comes next, Moore points out that it will “not impact. Already today, we have seen two students from whatever comes next, Moore points out that it will “not impact. Already today, we have seen two students from
be the end of the world…You just make bigger chips.”9 Stanford invent a search algorithm that forms the basis be the end of the world…You just make bigger chips.”9 Stanford invent a search algorithm that forms the basis be the end of the world…You just make bigger chips.”9 Stanford invent a search algorithm that forms the basis
This refers to the fact that semiconductors are built on for hundreds of billions of dollars in economic value. We This refers to the fact that semiconductors are built on for hundreds of billions of dollars in economic value. We This refers to the fact that semiconductors are built on for hundreds of billions of dollars in economic value. We
wafers—thin slices of silicon crystal. Today, cutting- have seen small, far-flung groups using very expensive wafers—thin slices of silicon crystal. Today, cutting- have seen small, far-flung groups using very expensive wafers—thin slices of silicon crystal. Today, cutting- have seen small, far-flung groups using very expensive
edge fabs manufacture 300mm wafers. The next step is instruments—such as the electron scanning microscope— edge fabs manufacture 300mm wafers. The next step is instruments—such as the electron scanning microscope— edge fabs manufacture 300mm wafers. The next step is instruments—such as the electron scanning microscope—
450mm wafers. Vendors have already agreed on a spec, remotely on a time-share basis, which has effectively put 450mm wafers. Vendors have already agreed on a spec, remotely on a time-share basis, which has effectively put 450mm wafers. Vendors have already agreed on a spec, remotely on a time-share basis, which has effectively put
and industry experts believe that new 450mm production material science back in the garage. What will increasing and industry experts believe that new 450mm production material science back in the garage. What will increasing and industry experts believe that new 450mm production material science back in the garage. What will increasing
fabs could come online in 2017-2019 at a staggering computational power bring next? One thing seems clear: fabs could come online in 2017-2019 at a staggering computational power bring next? One thing seems clear: fabs could come online in 2017-2019 at a staggering computational power bring next? One thing seems clear:
cost of $20-$40 billion to develop the new requisite Winners and losers will be separated only by the ability of cost of $20-$40 billion to develop the new requisite Winners and losers will be separated only by the ability of cost of $20-$40 billion to develop the new requisite Winners and losers will be separated only by the ability of
manufacturing technology and bring it to market.10 talent and organizations to effectively harness the power manufacturing technology and bring it to market.10 talent and organizations to effectively harness the power manufacturing technology and bring it to market.10 talent and organizations to effectively harness the power
Moreover, additional cost savings are being achieved by of this processing capability to deliver new innovations to Moreover, additional cost savings are being achieved by of this processing capability to deliver new innovations to Moreover, additional cost savings are being achieved by of this processing capability to deliver new innovations to
increasing the surface area of wafers. market. increasing the surface area of wafers. market. increasing the surface area of wafers. market.

As computing power grows, today’s highly complex As computing power grows, today’s highly complex As computing power grows, today’s highly complex
problems in fields ranging from medical genetics to problems in fields ranging from medical genetics to problems in fields ranging from medical genetics to
nanotechnology will become the simple building blocks of nanotechnology will become the simple building blocks of nanotechnology will become the simple building blocks of
future innovation. And as computational power becomes future innovation. And as computational power becomes future innovation. And as computational power becomes
ubiquitous and the playing field becomes increasingly flat, ubiquitous and the playing field becomes increasingly flat, ubiquitous and the playing field becomes increasingly flat,
9
Quoted in Ed Sperling, “Gordon scale will become increasingly less important. Small moves, 9
Quoted in Ed Sperling, “Gordon scale will become increasingly less important. Small moves, 9
Quoted in Ed Sperling, “Gordon scale will become increasingly less important. Small moves,
Moore on Moore’s Law,” Moore on Moore’s Law,” Moore on Moore’s Law,”
Electronic News, September Electronic News, September Electronic News, September
19, 2007, http://www. 19, 2007, http://www. 19, 2007, http://www.
electronicsnews.com.au/Article/ electronicsnews.com.au/Article/ electronicsnews.com.au/Article/
Gordon-Moore-on-Moores- Gordon-Moore-on-Moores- Gordon-Moore-on-Moores-
Law/74412.aspx. Law/74412.aspx. Law/74412.aspx.
Search Create Account or Sign In
10
Dean Freeman, quoted 10
Dean Freeman, quoted 10
Dean Freeman, quoted
in Mark LaPedus, “Industry in Mark LaPedus, “Industry Home Videos Channels in Mark LaPedus, “Industry Subscriptions History Upload
Agrees on First 450-mm Wafer Agrees on First 450-mm Wafer Agrees on First 450-mm Wafer
Standard,” RF DesignLine, Standard,” RF DesignLine, Standard,” RF DesignLine,
http://www.rfdesignline.com/ http://www.rfdesignline.com/ http://www.rfdesignline.com/
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drastically.


Macro-Trend: attention is the - increasingly - scarcest resource Current situation
Attention

“As more and more videos, blogs,
papers, comments, articles,
advertisements, etc., clamor for our
interest, our attention comes to be
long-term change increasingly scarce.”
The 2009 Shift Index

Deloitte Center for the Edge
John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang Davison

Core Research Team
Duleesha Kulasooriya
Tamara Samoylova
Brent Dance
Mark Astrinos
Dan Elbert


Perception Cognition

ashley rose EUSKALANATO

Optimizing attention through perception

killthebird

Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Actors

VS

Image: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Care_Bears.png / http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/stephen_dyrgas/2477528998/sizes/l/

Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Current situation
Actors

➡ actors are smart, rational, have their own goals
and make their own decisions
always have margin of action, no matter what
actors’ perception, self-perception and goals are
strongly shaped by organizational context: culture,
objectives, processes, norms, altruistic needs (feel
good), etc.
optimizing their return on attention is now a
priority


Actors

➡ always have margin of action, no matter what
actors’ perception, self-perception and goals are
good), etc.
optimizing their return on attention is now a
priority


Website blocked? Surf via email...

Actors

➡ always have margin of action, no matter what
➡ actors’ perception, self-perception and goals are
good), etc.
➡ optimizing their return on attention is now a
priority


“The Physical Eﬀect on the
Individual of the Idea of Death
suggested by the Collectivity.”

—Marcel Mauss (1926)

Actors

Usage, adoption, value creation through IT tools and
social media simple:

If it increases the employees’ Return On Attention, it
is creating value at both individual and
organizational levels and will be used.


Defining ROA at an individual level ROA - Individual

➡ perceived return of 1 unit of time spent using one
application (as part of a defined workflow or not)

➡Return means: gains [information, power,
authority, altruistic gratification, etc.] minus cost
[reputation cost, time, opportunity cost, monetoray,
etc.]


Characteristics of ROA at individual level Current situation
ROA - Individual

➡ evaluated and estimated at the person level
➡ subjective [sometimes, just matter of tastes]
➡ situated for each unique organization, and even
each workﬂow
➡ as weak as weakest link in the chain


Hardware factor often neglected

A predictive indicator Current situation
ROA - Individual

➡ ROA at individual level is a predictive indicator of
- selﬁsh - value, hence of adoption, use and value at
organizational level

➡ Management use : aggregated and weighted ROA


Unique individual perceptions to aggregate

Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational

➡ Indicator synthesizing all binary trade-oﬀs



➡ Indicator synthesizing all binary trade-oﬀs

ROA


Current situation

Application Properties
Usability, Training needs, RSS feeds or
other pull mechanisms, etc.

ROA


Current situation


ROA Increasing Returns Dynamics
Network and viral eﬀects, increasing
returns to scale, marginal productivity
increasing, “connected consumption”, etc.


Current situation

Indicator synthesizing all binary trade-oﬀs


ROA Increasing Returns Dynamics
Network and viral eﬀects, increasing
returns to scale, marginal productivity
increasing, “connected consumption”, etc.

Alignment with Organizational
Context
Process, Culture, Objectives, Power
Relationships, etc.

Current situation

Weighted by % user population

X
ROA Subset of
Users within
Population


Current situation

Weighted by relative value for each position: factors for each class

X X $$$
ROA Subset of Relative Value
Users within per Position
Population

- deep one-oﬀ eﬀort, but then punctual and light revisions
- segmentation stable for each org
- relative scale widely accepted by all stakeholders


Examples of criteria to define strategic value ROA - Organizational
Current situation

Criteria Definition
Applications or Activities are
Corporate Specificity
unique to company?
Transformational, Transactional,
Nature of Work
Tacit
Knowledge Manipulation /
Nature of Knowledge Work
Decision-Making
“Every knowledge worker in a modern
organization is an “executive” if, by virtue of his
position or knowledge, he is responsible for a
Drucker’s executive scale contribution that materially affects the capacity
of the organization to perform and to obtain
results.”

SOURCE: McKinsey Quarterly; The Effective Executive - Peter Drucker


Current situation

X X $$$ X !
ROA Subset of Relative Value Activity
Users within per Position frequency ,
Population weighted by
strategic
value


Current situation

X X $$$ X !
strategic
value
Aggregated Impact on
and Weighted Existing
ROA Business KPIs

How to use the Aggregated and Weighted ROA? ROA - Decisions

➡ ROA is a predictive indicator of how Existing
Business KPIs will be impacted
➡ Should be used at 3 levels:
1. Portfolio management: which projects to invest
in?
2. Technology / Application choice within a project:
stop using features as main evaluation tool (blogs)!
3. Level of customization needed
➡ IT depts need to develop expertise in evaluating
ROA across large activity range


SLB BlueTube: ROA increased company-wide

Weighted ROA: Micro-Messaging (internal Twitter clone) Examples

Activity: general team management

X X $$$ X !
Important
strategic
Very Large
Weak- value
Neutral

Average -
or High! Weak


Weighted ROA: Micro-Messaging (internal Twitter clone) Examples

Activité: DeepWater real-time team management

X X $$$ X !
=
strategic
Very small High
value

Very High


Julien Le Nestour, Worldwide IT Innovation Manager, Schlumberger

Julien Le Nestour, Worldwide IT Innovation Manager, Schlumberger

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