Transition pathways as “inter-disciplinary meeting place”
•
0 gefällt mir•20 views
Transition pathways as “inter-disciplinary meeting place”
Empfohlen
Empfohlen
Weitere ähnliche Inhalte
Ähnlich wie Transition pathways as “inter-disciplinary meeting place”
Ähnlich wie Transition pathways as “inter-disciplinary meeting place” (20)
Mehr von IEA-ETSAP
Mehr von IEA-ETSAP (20)
Kürzlich hochgeladen
Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)
Transition pathways as “inter-disciplinary meeting place”
- 1. Transition pathways as “inter- disciplinary meeting place” Kristina Haaskjold Kari Aamodt Espegren Eva Rosenberg Pernille Seljom ETSAP Winter Workshop 2022 01.12.2022 Columbia University, New York
- 2. NTRANS Is a center for Energy Transition Strategies • National research center (2020-2027) • Research on the role of the energy system in the transition to a zero-emission society • Interaction between technology and society – include the role of citizens and their interaction with technology and systems • Fair and democratic transition • Develop theory, methods, competence and knowledge to support decision-making processes 2
- 3. 10-step methodology developed in NTRANS 1. Develop scenarios - based on socio-technical research 2. Quantify the scenarios – in dialog with partners in NTRANS 3. Analysis with NTRANS models 4. Discussion of analysis results and selection of case for in-depth analysis 5. Quantitative case study – in-depth analysis 6. Qualitative case study – in-depth analysis 7. Analysis/discussion: what are important measures to reduce bottlenecks in the transition? 8. Include uncertainty (short, medium, and long term) and bottlenecks in model analysis 9. Discuss policy implications from the model-based analysis and the socio-technical analysis 10.Summarize the research in a policy paper and a results presentation 3
- 4. NTRANS scenarios 4 High Low Technological change High Low Societal change Scenarios are based on socio-technical research • Technological change • Societal change TECHnological change pathway RADical change pathway INCremental change pathway SOCial change pathway
- 5. Example of assumptions 5 Technological Radical High activity/demand Low activity/demand High wind onshore Low wind onshore Unlimited transmission No new transmission 10 % rate 4 % rate Municipal waste as today No waste Wind offshore High potential, lower cost High potential, lower cost Biofuel & bio coal Expensive Expensive Hydrogen technologies High learning rate High learning rate Blue hydrogen Yes No CCS Yes No Incremental Society Medium activity/demand Low activity/demand High wind onshore Low wind onshore Unlimited transmission No new transmission 10 % rate 4 % rate Municipal waste as today No waste Wind offshore High cost High cost Biofuel & bio coal Unlimited Unlimited Hydrogen technologies Low learning rate Low learning rate Blue hydrogen No No CCS Yes No High Low Technological change High Low Societal change
- 6. Energy use per sector • Energy use in transport reduced in all scenarios, most in RAD and least in INC • Energy use in buildings reduced with 1% in INC and TECH and 23% in SOC and RAD • Energy use in industry incl. petroleum • Halved in SOC and RAD • 18% reduction in INC • Almost doubles in TECH 8 Technology change Low Low High High Societal change Low High Low High - 100 200 300 400 500 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD TWh/year Industry Commercial Residential Transport
- 7. Net domestic energy use 9 Technology change Low Low High High Societal change Low High Low High • Electricity consumption increase in all scenarios • Bio: increases compared to 2020, mostly used in INC • Natural gas: used in production of blue hydrogen in TECH • Still some use of fossil energy in industry in all scenarios - 100 200 300 400 500 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD TWh/year Gas to blue H2 Fossil without blue H2 Bio El
- 8. Electricity consumption 10 • Total use of el. in 2050 • 270 TWh in TECH • Today’s level in SOC • Use of el. in industry: • Highest increase in scenarios with low societal change (130 TWh in Tech in 2050) • Today’s level in 2050 in scenarios with high societal change • Use of el in transport and for production of hydrogen: • Highest increase in scenarios with high technology change (75 TWh in TECH in 2050) Technology change Low Low High High Societal change Low High Low High - 50 100 150 200 250 300 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD TWh/year Electricity use (excl. grid losses) H2 prod. Transport Industry Buildings
- 9. Power production • Hydro • Increase of 12-14 TWh in all scenarios to 2050 • Onshore wind • Small increase in scenarios with high societal change (14 TWh in SOC and RAD in 2050) • Higher increase in scenarios with low societal change (53 TWh in TECH in 2050) • Offshore wind • Increase largely in scenarios with high technology change (139 TWh in TECH in 2050) • Less development in scenarios with low technology change (21 TWh in INC and SOC) • Solar PV • 13-19 TWh in 2050 (highest in RAD) 12 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD TWh/year CHP PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro Teknologiendring Low Low High High Samfunnsendring Low High Low High
- 10. CO2 emissions • All scenarios follow the same trend: • Road transport is faster decarbonized compared to sea transport • Still remaining emissions in industry, can be reduced with new technology (e.g., CCS or DAC) • Production of blue hydrogen is not emission-free Emission reduction: • INC: 85% • SOC: 86% • TECH: 76% • RAD: 90% 13 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2018 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 INC SOC TECH RAD million ton CO2 District heat Other transport Sea transport Road transport Blue hydrogen Other industry Aluminium Technology change Low Low High High Societal change Low High Low High
- 11. Electricity trade • Net export for all periods and all scenarios • Largest export volumes in RAD and TECH • RAD - Example of why price elasticity is important • Iterative process to make results more trustworthy 14 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 INC SOC TECH RAD TWh/year Net power trade (import - export) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
- 12. Learnings from the process • Collaboration and dialogue with other disciplines is highly valuable • Results reflect also societal change – increases credibility • Inclusion of user-partners to give input based on their expertise • Even if we have not completed the 10-step methodology yet, our experience is that it is valuable to work in close cooperation with the other research disciplines in the center. 15