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Monetary Instability




  The Age Wave                       How can we prepare for the               Climate Change
                                     possibility of monetary crisis?




                                 The Future
                                                                             How can we resolve the
How will society provide the
                                                                           conflict between short-term
 elderly with the money to
                                                                           financial interests and long-
   match their longevity?         Information Revolution                       term sustainability?




                               How can we provide a living to additional
                               billions of people when technology makes
                                       jobless growth a possibility?
my parent’s expectations
                          used to be simple
“Family”                                                          Was
responsibility

10


 8


 6


 4
                                Own
         Live with             family
 2        parents
                                               Children
                                             leave home     Partner dies
 0                                                                         Age
     0         10    20   30            40   50       60   70        80
today’s expectations
                                     very complicated
“Family”                                                    Second marriage
                                                            extended family                   Was
responsibility
                                Relocate           Have
                                                                                              Contemporary
10                                 Live with      children
                                                           Relocate
                                   a partner Get         Divorce
                    Student
     Live with Travel                        married
 8                        Start                        Parent                           Relocate
      parents abroad      work             Buy          dies                              Live
                                          home                           Relocate
                                Rent                                                    with third
 6                              home                                       Children      partner
                                                                         leave home
                                                                                    Partner
 4                                                                                   dies
                                           Own
         Live with                        family
 2        parents
                                                              Children
                                                            leave home               Partner dies
 0                                                                                                   Age
     0         10        20          30            40       50        60         70             80
Population Ageing
• Unprecedented: without parallel
  in human history—and the
  twenty-first century will witness
  even more rapid ageing than did
  the century just past.

• Pervasive: a global phenomenon
  affecting every man, woman and
  child—but countries are at very
  different stages of the process.

• Enduring: we will not return to
  the young populations that our
  ancestors knew.

• Profound.
              http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/
Information Revolution

• 1940’s, Thomas Watson
 predicted world market for
 ‘maybe five computers’
• 1975, 50,000 were operating
• 1997, >140 million
• 1999, >600 million
• 2010, >1.8 billion
Information Revolution

We now spend:
• 22.7% of our internet time on social networks
• 10.2% online gaming
• 8.3% emailing
• 4.4% on portals
• 4% instant messaging

Source: Nielsen, August 2010
Mobile Planet
There are:
• 5 billion active mobile phone
  subscribers out there
• 4.1 billion actively used mobile
  telephones
• 4 billion text message users, increasing
  at 19% per annum
• 2.2 billion bank accounts in use
• 1.6 billion television sets
• 1.4 billion email users, increasing at
  7% per annum
• 1.25 landlines at its peak, as there are
  now 1.15 billion and falling
• 1.2 PCs of any kind
Killing the Planet?
• UK emissions of carbon dioxide currently
  account for about 2% of the global total
• Emissions from transport are increasing –
  10% increase nationally since 1990
• Air travel currently accounts for about
  6.3% of total carbon dioxide emissions
• Each UK resident was responsible for 10.5
  tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2007
• The UK is committed to cutting carbon
  dioxide emissions to 50% below 1990
  levels by 2050
Climate Change
• Worldwide, 10 of the hottest years
  on record have occurred since 1990
  (records began in 1861)
• Global sea level rose by between
  10 and 20 cm during the 20th
  century
• Average yearly temperatures in
  central England have risen by
  almost 1°C over the last 100 years
• The highest temperature ever
  recorded in the UK is 38.5°C, on 1st
  August 2003 in Kent
Monetary Instability
A global money meltdown in 2008
$600 trillion in OTC Derivatives outstanding

Lehmans collapsed with $400bn in debts
amounting to $10tn in risk

$5 trillion is traded in foreign exchange markets
every day
    • 300 times more than the trading volume of all
      the stockmarkets of the world combined
Only 2% of these foreign exchange transactions
relate to real goods and services
    • 98% is purely speculative
Cause of the foreign exchange crises in Mexico
in 1994-5, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998
•   Of the 100 richest economies, 51 are now corporations, e.g. sales by General Motors
    are greater than GDP of Denmark, or Ford than South Africa
•   The world’s 200 largest corporations control 28% of the global economy and employ
    <0.3% of its population to achieve that
•   The sales of the world’s largest 200 corporations are equivalent to 30% of Global GDP,
    and are more than the combined GDP of all but the top 9 countries
•   33% of global trade is intra-company
•   American corporations pay less in US taxes than they receive in public subsidies
•   In 1960, the CEO earned 30 times more than the average worker; today, the CEO earns
    200 times more
The Challenge

• 1% of the World
  Population get 80% of
  resources
• Half of the world’s
  peoples live on less than
  $1 a day
• 50,000 people die every
  day due to manmade
  poverty
Opaque

Hidden

Shareholding

Monetary
The End of


Old
                    Sustainable


      The Future




         Social

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Future trends

  • 1. Monetary Instability The Age Wave How can we prepare for the Climate Change possibility of monetary crisis? The Future How can we resolve the How will society provide the conflict between short-term elderly with the money to financial interests and long- match their longevity? Information Revolution term sustainability? How can we provide a living to additional billions of people when technology makes jobless growth a possibility?
  • 2. my parent’s expectations used to be simple “Family” Was responsibility 10 8 6 4 Own Live with family 2 parents Children leave home Partner dies 0 Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
  • 3. today’s expectations very complicated “Family” Second marriage extended family Was responsibility Relocate Have Contemporary 10 Live with children Relocate a partner Get Divorce Student Live with Travel married 8 Start Parent Relocate parents abroad work Buy dies Live home Relocate Rent with third 6 home Children partner leave home Partner 4 dies Own Live with family 2 parents Children leave home Partner dies 0 Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
  • 4. Population Ageing • Unprecedented: without parallel in human history—and the twenty-first century will witness even more rapid ageing than did the century just past. • Pervasive: a global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child—but countries are at very different stages of the process. • Enduring: we will not return to the young populations that our ancestors knew. • Profound. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/
  • 5. Information Revolution • 1940’s, Thomas Watson predicted world market for ‘maybe five computers’ • 1975, 50,000 were operating • 1997, >140 million • 1999, >600 million • 2010, >1.8 billion
  • 6. Information Revolution We now spend: • 22.7% of our internet time on social networks • 10.2% online gaming • 8.3% emailing • 4.4% on portals • 4% instant messaging Source: Nielsen, August 2010
  • 7. Mobile Planet There are: • 5 billion active mobile phone subscribers out there • 4.1 billion actively used mobile telephones • 4 billion text message users, increasing at 19% per annum • 2.2 billion bank accounts in use • 1.6 billion television sets • 1.4 billion email users, increasing at 7% per annum • 1.25 landlines at its peak, as there are now 1.15 billion and falling • 1.2 PCs of any kind
  • 8. Killing the Planet? • UK emissions of carbon dioxide currently account for about 2% of the global total • Emissions from transport are increasing – 10% increase nationally since 1990 • Air travel currently accounts for about 6.3% of total carbon dioxide emissions • Each UK resident was responsible for 10.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2007 • The UK is committed to cutting carbon dioxide emissions to 50% below 1990 levels by 2050
  • 9. Climate Change • Worldwide, 10 of the hottest years on record have occurred since 1990 (records began in 1861) • Global sea level rose by between 10 and 20 cm during the 20th century • Average yearly temperatures in central England have risen by almost 1°C over the last 100 years • The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK is 38.5°C, on 1st August 2003 in Kent
  • 10. Monetary Instability A global money meltdown in 2008 $600 trillion in OTC Derivatives outstanding Lehmans collapsed with $400bn in debts amounting to $10tn in risk $5 trillion is traded in foreign exchange markets every day • 300 times more than the trading volume of all the stockmarkets of the world combined Only 2% of these foreign exchange transactions relate to real goods and services • 98% is purely speculative Cause of the foreign exchange crises in Mexico in 1994-5, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998
  • 11. Of the 100 richest economies, 51 are now corporations, e.g. sales by General Motors are greater than GDP of Denmark, or Ford than South Africa • The world’s 200 largest corporations control 28% of the global economy and employ <0.3% of its population to achieve that • The sales of the world’s largest 200 corporations are equivalent to 30% of Global GDP, and are more than the combined GDP of all but the top 9 countries • 33% of global trade is intra-company • American corporations pay less in US taxes than they receive in public subsidies • In 1960, the CEO earned 30 times more than the average worker; today, the CEO earns 200 times more
  • 12. The Challenge • 1% of the World Population get 80% of resources • Half of the world’s peoples live on less than $1 a day • 50,000 people die every day due to manmade poverty
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  • 16. The End of Old Sustainable The Future Social