#NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015
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A new version of the talk that describes what software estimates are used for, and alternatives that might serve you better. (This time with added logs ;)
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#NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015
- 1. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io #NoEs5mates does not mean “no es5mates!” Seb Rose seb@cucumber.io
- 2. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Your company NEEDS that es5mate
- 3. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Why do we es5mate? Analysis of requirements Priori5sa5on Predic5on Blame!
- 4. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Predic5on
- 5. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Warren Ellis, author & humanist “I try not to get involved in the business of predic'on. It's a quick way to look like an idiot.”
- 6. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io The Cone of Uncertainty in Project Management
- 7. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
- 8. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Overconfidence
- 9. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
- 10. ©ClaysnowLimited2014 How long is a piece of string?
- 12. ©ClaysnowLimited2014 120 cm 100 cm 70 cm 60 cm 40 cm E. D. C. A. B.
- 13. ©ClaysnowLimited2014 ... these studies which have for a few years now given rise to the claim that "research shows that people are be)er at rela5ve than absolute es5ma5on" do not in fact seem to square with that claim. This doesn't entail that rela5ve es5ma5on doesn't work -‐ only that it is not proven. h)p://guide.agilealliance.org/guide/rela5ve.html
- 15. ©ClaysnowLimited2014 12 cm 10 cm 7 cm 6 cm 4 cm E. D. C. A. B.
- 18. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Why predict?
- 19. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Resource alloca5on Release planning How much? When?
- 24. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
- 25. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
- 26. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Probabilis5c planning ...uses historical data or a model of expected capability to build a forecast of the project outcome
- 27. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
- 28. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Priori5sa5on (or ordering?)
- 29. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
- 30. ©ClaysnowLimited2014 Cost of delay http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/ ... is a way of communicating the impact of time on value.
- 31. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io “... rather than trying to improve the ini>al project es>mates, the budgets and deadlines must be set based on the value of delivery (not the cost).” h)p://www.gilb.com/dl460 Es5ma5on: A Paradigm Shig Toward Dynamic Design-‐to-‐Cost and Radical Management
- 32. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Analysis
- 34. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io "We aren't really bad at es5ma5ng. What we are really bad at is enumera5ng all the assump5ons that lie behind our es5mates." -‐Paul Rook
- 35. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Is it small, or just far away?
- 36. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io #NoEs5mates
- 37. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Woody Zuill h)p://www.agileroots.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/WoodyZuill_2013-‐150x168.png
- 38. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io BANG HEAD HERE Observed Cycle h)p://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg
- 39. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Vasco Duarte h)p://2013.itakeunconf.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/03/vasco-‐duarte-‐300x400.jpg
- 40. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io h)ps://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrink_200_200/p/7/000/2c4/38d/0ea9e25.jpg Neil Killick
- 41. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io h)p://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1176417752/Headshot_2.jpg Glen Alleman
- 42. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io The idea behind the #NoEs5mates approach to sogware development isn't to eliminate es:mates [it is] to explore other ways to solve problems without specifically asking, 'How long will it take?' h)p://www.cio.com/ar5cle/2381167/agile-‐development/-‐no-‐es5mates-‐in-‐ac5on-‐5-‐ways-‐to-‐rethink-‐sogware-‐projects.html
- 43. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Giving sogware projects an API ... [is] about “yes, yes, yes”. h)p://xprogramming.com/ar5cles/ar5facts-‐are-‐not-‐the-‐problem/
- 44. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Ask yourself whether the value you get from es5mates jus5fies the cost of producing them. #NoEs:mates is the banner under which people look for alterna:ve ways of gerng the benefits that they want, without the waste that they don’t. Finally....