1. The Future Of Social Networks
Charlene Li
Vice President & Principal Analyst
Co-author of Groundswell
Forrester Research
March 4, 2008

2. 2
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3. They are online with their social networks
3
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4. 4
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5. Theme
Social networks
will be like air.
5
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6. Components of social networks
Profile Universal identity
Relationships A single social graph
Activities Social context for activities
Business model Social influence defines
marketing value
6
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7. My multiple identities
7
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8. Universal identity
cli@forrester.com
me@charleneli.com
Mobile number
8
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9. Universal identity foundations
• Federation (OpenID approach)
• A few major players will serve as major federation
focal points
» Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
• All players must realize that they can grow the
market faster/better by working together
» Data Portability Group is the beginning
9
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10. Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web
“We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to
certain fundamental rights, specifically:
•Ownership of their own personal information, including:
» their own profile data
» the list of people they are connected to
» the activity stream of content they create;
•Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with
others; and
•Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to
trusted external sites.”
- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael
Arrington
http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
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11. My Facebook social graph
Missing
Colleagues
Parents
Extended family
School parents
Neighbors
Babysitter
Walking group
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12. My real social graph is much more complex
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13. Let’s end the insanity
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14. Relationships today are explicit – and a pain
LinkedIn
Twitter
Facebook Plaxo
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15. New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents
Millions of regular users
Search & deep content
Ad and content networks
Relationship maps
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16. Relationship mapping will be automatic and
permission-based
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17. What people do today on social networks
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18. Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
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19. But it would be more helpful on Amazon
“See friends’ reviews”
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20. How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks
Search based on what
my friends finds
relevant
Elevate stories tagged
by friends –
anywhere
See which of my
friends owns a Focus –
and what they think of
Compare daily portfolio it
performance to friends’
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21. The under-rated value of networks
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22. Endorsement value depends on your network
• Your authority on the
specific topic
• Your network’s
interest and authority
on the topic
• The trust level among
your network on the
topic
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23. The future business model for social networks
• Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable
• Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
• Social networks will compete to have the best
experience for high-influence individuals
* From Marian Salzman, JWT
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24. Evolution of open platforms
Walled
garden Ubiquitous
services social networks
Search
freedom
1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013
Data
portability
Portal
aggregators
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25. Recommendations
• Create linkages between services based on
individually-controlled identity federation
• Compete on creating the most compelling social
experience, not social graph lock-in
• Develop social applications that have meaning
• Integrate social networks into existing activities
• Design business models that reflect the value
created by people’s social networks
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26. Thank you
Charlene Li
+1 650.581.3833
cli@forrester.com
www.forrester.com
groundswell.forrester.com
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