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Planning
Define
OBS
Construct
PBS & WBS
Obtain Partner
Estimates
Define Team
Define Tasks &
Estimate Work
Obtain Supplier
Quotes
Define Schedule
Assess Estimation
Uncertainty
De-Risking
Tasks
Contingency
Zero Risk Cost
Estimate
Total Project Cost
Estimation
Risk Pot
Construct
RAM and/or RACI
Safety Costing
Stakeholder
Definition
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What is Planning?
‘Planning is bringing the future into the present so that you can do
something about it now’
‘Failing to plan is planning to fail’
Alan Lakein, Time Management Expert
How to Get Control of Your Time and Your Life, 1973
Identifying the methods, resources and activities to accomplish a project’s objectives
APM
Preparing a sequence of action steps to achieve some specific goal
Wikipedia
Planning creates a map to guide the journey to our destination
- art rather than science
- based on experience, domain knowledge and technical skill
- requires innovative thinking
- a team activity
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Why Plan?
Don’t plan on success – be realistic
Planning identifies and documents the optimum approach to delivery
20% into a product development project 80% of the cost of ownership is set
Change requires development iteration – so ideally, get it right first time
Planning defines the right activities, in the right order to avoid nugatory work
Well planned projects are more likely to succeed and enable easier communication
The schedule, budget and risk pot form a baseline to manage performance against
0%
100%
Concept Development NPI Operation
Cost
Time
Opportunity for Improvement
Committed Costs
Actual Costs
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Best Practice
Association for Project Management
Planning, Scheduling, Monitoring & Control [2015] 
Introduction to Project Planning [2008] 
The Scheduling Maturity Model [2012] 
Project Management Institute
Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures, Second Edition [2006] 
Practice Standard for Scheduling, Second Edition [2011] 
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Planning
Process
Optional elements
in yellow
Decide based on
project value, risk
& complexity
Manage Team & Customer
Review: Solution, Cost, Schedule, Risk, Price & Offer (Value & USPs)
Requirements
Define Delivery
Strategy
HSE Risk
Assessment
Define Tools
& Process
Write PM &
Quality Plan
Construct RAM
and/or RACI
Define
OBS
Construct
PBS & WBS
Obtain Partner
Estimates
Stakeholder
Definition
Define Team
Define Tasks &
Estimate Work
Obtain Supplier
Quotes
Propose
Solution(s)
Risk
Management
Set Terms
& Cash Flow
Commercial
Check & Offer
Estimation
Uncertainty
Write SoW
(Proposal)
Define SoW
Content
Hazard
Identification
Safety Costing
De-Risking
Tasks
Contingency
Risk
Register
Zero Risk Cost
Estimate Total
Project Cost
Estimation
Risk Pot
Schedule &
Risk Graphs
SoW
(Proposal)
Exec Summary
Requirement
Solution
Assumptions
Dependencies
Compliance Matrix
Process & Tools
Team
Communications
Change ManagementRAM, RACI
Team
Stakeholder Plan
& Map
Plans:
PM & Quality
Configuration Management
Communications
Define
Schedule
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Keep People Safe
HSE: Health, Safety and Environment
Do a Risk Assessment to expose potential hazards
EN ISO 14121-1 is a useful guide in defining potential hazards
Consider the whole lifecycle: hazards may differ from one phase to the next
Plan actions to deal with the hazards identified and reduce to an acceptable level the
probability of harm to the team and other stakeholders
There may be tasks and costs arising from the risk assessment: include these in planning
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Break It Down
Break the project down to help plan the work, assign responsibility, estimate and cost work
PBS: Product Breakdown Structure
Hierarchical breakdown of the
project output starting from the
primary deliverable
For ‘product’ think ‘deliverable’
WBS: Work Breakdown Structure
Hierarchical breakdown into a
series of work packages:
groups of tasks that can be
estimated and assigned to a
department, team or person
1 Event
1.2 Speakers1.1 Venue
1.2.2 Invite1.2.1 Select
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
1 Car
1.2 Engine1.1 Body
1.2.2 Clutch1.2.1 Gearbox
Number of levels to suit size of project and degree of control required
WBS is often lower levels of PBS with addition of tasks
Level 1: Product
Level 2: Sub-Assembly
Level 3: Work Packages
1 Remote
1.2 Electronics1.1 Case
1.2.1 Radio
Key Detect
Function Select
User Interface
1.2.2 Software
Tasks (not part of WBS)
Work Packages
at Lowest
WBS Level
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WBS: Product or Function
Draw the WBS based on the products or deliverables to ensure none are forgotten
Different products mean every WBS will be unique
Draw the WBS based on function and it is possible to have a template covering all functions
for the type of project undertaken, e.g. in an electronics product development business
Level 1: Product
Level 2: Function
Level 3: Work Packages
Product
ElectronicsMechanics
Bluetooth
Key Detect
Function Select
User Interface
Software
Schematic
Layout
Level 4: Tasks
Software Manufacture Integration Test Management
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Allocate & Communicate Responsibility
OBS: Organisational Breakdown Structure
Hierarchical breakdown of the project management structure and people
Used to convey the project communication routes and reporting lines
Useful for large complex projects in matrix based organisations
Project Manager
ProcurementEngineering
Hardware Software
Production Service Logistics
RAM: Responsibility Assignment Matrix
Combination of OBS and WBS
RF Engineer 1 UI Engineer
SMD Assembly
BB Engineer
RF Engineer 2
PM
Product
WBS2
WBS3
WBS1
WBS4
WP2
OBS3OBS2OBS1
WP1
WP3
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Detail Roles
RACI: Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed
Hierarchical breakdown of the project management structure and people
Used to convey the project communication routes and reporting lines
Useful for large complex projects in matrix based organisations
WP: Work Package
PM Sponsor QA MD HR EPG
CMMI
Expert
Project Planning R A I I I C C
QA Gap Analysis C R C A R I
CMMI Gap Analysis C A C I I R
Site Communications R R C A I C C
Proposal Analysis R C C I I R A C
Improvement Projects A R C C
CMMI Level 2 Achievement A R C I I I I R
CMMI Level 3 Achievement A R C I I R
Site Process Library Update R A R I C
Responsible
Do the WP work
Can be multiple per WP
Accountable
Ultimate authority for the WP
Only one per WP
Consulted
Their opinions are sought
Two-way communication
Informed
Kept informed of progress
One-way communication
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Estimate and Manage Uncertainty
Risk Management: Separate presentation: Risk Management
Use to manage uncertainty, threats (negative impact) and opportunities (positive impact)
Manage estimation uncertainty separately
Estimating: Separate presentation: Estimating
Decide type and estimate duration of effort and materials required to deliver the project
Estimation Uncertainty
All similar projects and past performance indicates suitable value?
Add a percentage
All projects different or no past delivery history?
Use Range Estimating, 3 (or 4) point – described in separate presentation: Estimating
PERT: Program Evaluation & Review Technique developed by US Navy in 1950s
Uses 3 estimates per task: Optimistic, Most Likely & Pessimistic
Calculates task duration as (O+(4xML)+P)/6 (not same formula as used in 3 point estimating)
Schedule Contingency: Adding a time contingency to the project end date
Useful where estimation uncertainty risk pot is used to fund keeping to most likely dates
(i.e. with extra/better resource) rather than to fund additional time after most likely date
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Plan Payment and Manage Stakeholders
Commercial Considerations
Cash flow: compare planned spend and planned invoicing, accounting for payment terms
A neutral cash flow is fairest but can be hard to achieve; negotiate to get the fairest deal
Do a commercial check and maybe an anti-corruption check, e.g. Transparency International
Team Definition
A Team Structure picture
helps to understand roles
and provides a handy
contact sheet
Stakeholder Management
Know the stakeholders
Decide where to invest time
Separate presentation:
Stakeholder Management
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Plan then Schedule
Planning is an activity that precedes scheduling
Planning defines the strategy, methods, tools, risks
More art than science
Scheduling records the activities in a time ordered presentation:
Network Diagrams or Bar Charts (Gantt) being the most used
More science than art
Scheduling uses the Work Breakdown Structure to organise the tasks that must be
undertaken to deliver the project goals
All but extremely simple projects require use of a specialist scheduling tool
There are many tools available: Wikipedia PM Tool List
Tool choice depends on a lot of factors, including integration with other tools
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Scheduling
Scheduling implements the plan
 Incorporating all tasks
 Including Risk Management tasks: threat mitigation and opportunity enhancement
 Managing interdependencies
 Developing a logical sequence of work
 Accounting for working time
 Optimising resource use:
 Smoothing: Reduce peak resource demand without affecting Project Duration
 Levelling: Solve limited resource issues – perhaps affecting Project Duration
 Determining the Critical Path and Float
 Calculating Work Package and overall Project Duration and cost
 Determining the feasibility of project delivery within desired completion dates and cost
Schedules should have a level of detail appropriate to the target audience
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Scheduling: Network Diagrams
Network Diagrams
Clearly show the logic between tasks and are often where new project managers start
Early Start Duration Early Finish
Late Start Float Late Finish
Task NameNetwork Node
ES D=0 EF ES D=2 EF ES D=5 EF ES D=0 EF
LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF
ES D=3 EF ES D=10 EF
LS F LF LS F LF
E Drink Juice
F Finish BreakfastA Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal
D Prepare Juice
C Eat Cereal
Earliest the
task can finish
Earliest the
task can start
Latest the task
can start
Latest the task
can finish
Tasks with Float > 0 can be
delayed with no change in
Project Duration
Start by mapping the tasks,
durations and dependencies
Finish-to-Start
dependency
Milestone
(zero duration task)
Task
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Scheduling: Network Example
1. Forward Pass
Calculate ES & EF
Start at first task where ES is always 0
ES = maximum EF of all predecessor tasks
EF = ES + Duration
Conclusion: Project Duration = last task EF = 13 minutes
2. Backward Pass
Calculate LS & LF
Start at last task where LF is the EF
LF = minimum LS of all successor tasks
LS = LF − Duration
If start task LS is not 0, check maths!
3. Calculate Float & Critical Path
Float = LF - EF or LS – ES
Free Float = Task EF – Successor Task ES
Start and Finish tasks have zero float
Delay float tasks without changing Project Duration
Delay free float tasks without affecting other tasks
Critical Path is longest path through network, lowest float (usually 0) – Can be more than one – Can change
Conclusion: Critical Path = A D E F = Shortest Project Duration
ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13
LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF
ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13
LS F LF LS F LF
A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal F Finish BreakfastC Eat Cereal
D Prepare Juice E Drink Juice
ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13
LS=0 F LF=0 LS=6 F LF=8 LS=8 F LF=13 LS=13 F LF=13
ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13
LS=0 F LF=3 LS=3 F LF=13
A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal
D Prepare Juice
C Eat Cereal F Finish Breakfast
E Drink Juice
ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13
LS=0 F=0 LF=0 LS=6 F=6 LF=8 LS=8 F=6 LF=13 LS=13 F=0 LF=13
ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13
LS=0 F=0 LF=3 LS=3 F=0 LF=13
F Finish Breakfast
D Prepare Juice
A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal
E Drink Juice
C Eat Cereal
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Scheduling: Bar Charts
Bar or Gantt Charts
Developed in 1910 by Henry Gantt, this is the most used format in scheduling software
Show tasks on a common timescale unlike Network Diagrams
Careful structure & style needed if logic is to be clear
Can be rolled-up, hiding and revealing detail as necessary
Mark key outputs as Milestones – often with major milestones grouped at the top
Typically Finish-to-Start, dependencies can be Start-to-Start, Start-to-Finish or Finish-to-Finish
Minutes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
A Start Breakfast
F Finish Breakfast
B Prepare Cereal
C Eat Cereal
D Prepare Juice
E Drink Juice
Float
Finish-to-start
dependency
Milestone
(Zero Duration)
Critical Path
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Schedule Design
Task ID: Unique task identification, often following WBS element or finance system number
Task Descriptions: Use meaningful, specific text to describe a task
Milestones: Zero duration tasks – group significant milestones at the top
Lag: a time period between tasks where no work is done
Lead: a negative Lag, which makes no sense as time only runs forward, so don’t use!
Lags and Leads are both hidden in a schedule
Dummy: No work tasks used to provide visibility, e.g. Tooling Leadtime
Use a Dummy Task rather than a Lag
Hammocks: Task which expands and contracts depending on the tasks that it is linked to
Calendars: Include common non-working time in schedule calendars, e.g. public holidays
Include typical holiday periods or individual calendars per resource where useful
Plan on standard working hours – overtime and weekends should be for crises only
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Other Flavours are Available
Rolling Wave Planning is planning in phases, sections or waves as the project proceeds
High level overall milestones are set and the most immediate section planned in detail
Later sections of work are planned only in outline
As the current section nears completion and later details become clearer, the next section of
work is planned in detail, and so on
What If planning is used to look at outcomes, assuming the What-if scenario succeeds
Probabilistic planning is used where a number of branches are possible, each with a
probability of occurrence which can be modelled using monte carlo simulation
BIM: Building Information Modelling is the generation and management of digital
representations of the physical and functional characteristics of an asset – starting from a 2D
or 3D model and adding time and cost information
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Critical Chain
CCPM: Critical Chain Project Management is derived from the Theory of Constraints
Developed in 1997 by Eliyahu Goldratt as an alternative to Critical Path analysis
Credited with achieving projects 10% to 50% faster and/or cheaper than older methods
CCPM asserts that estimation contingency is generally wasted due to poor multitasking,
student syndrome, Parkinson's Law and poorly synchronized integration
CCPM planning aggregates the task contingency time into buffers
Buffer management instead of EVM is used to assess the performance of a project
Critical Chain Planning Process
1. Create WBS
2. Work backwards from the end date moving all tasks to start as late as possible
3. Adjust task to two durations: 50% and 95% likely (or remove a fixed percentage)
4. Assign resources to tasks and level resources using 50% likely durations
– we assume half will be early and half will be late, so the net result will be time
5. Critical Chain is the longest sequence of resource levelled tasks from project start to end
6. Accumulate the 95% durations minus the 50% durations in a buffer at the end of the project
– for the Critical Chain tasks
7. Do the same for each sequence of tasks that feed into the Critical Chain
8. Give the date at the end of the Critical Chain project buffer as the project delivery date
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Agile Software Development
A collection of tools, structure, culture and discipline, and planning integrated with execution
A framework aimed at helping a team respond effectively to changing requirements
Does not require an upfront effort to document all requirements
A prioritized list of desired features, the Product Backlog is developed as more is learned
Features are written as Stories and allocated points based on their level of definition
Rather than assigning tasks to team members (‘push’), team members choose tasks (‘pull’)
In Scrum, a Sprint is a fixed iteration of typically 1-4 weeks, fixed prior to each Sprint
Backlog items are planned into each Sprint prior to starting and cannot be added during
Team members choose tasks prior to starting a Sprint and all must be done before the end
Tasks that would exceed the Sprint duration are split into smaller tasks
In Kanban the team works continuously, typically with releases shorter than 1 week
Scrumban is continuous work with short iterations for planning and longer cycles for release
Unlike Scrum, tasks are chosen during Kanban or Scrumban rather than at the start
Demand Planning occurs when the team run out of product backlog items
Alternatively, Release Planning occurs when the code or version is released
Backlog items can be added during a sprint as long as the team has capacity to do them
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Agile Methods
As well as Scrum, Kanban and Scrumban, there are many other Agile Methods
XP: Extreme Programming
In 1999 Kent Beck published a book advocating taking existing best practices to extremes
e.g. code reviews are best practice so XP advocates continuous code review (pair
programming)
LSD: Lean Software Development
In 2003 Mary & Tom Poppendieck applied the 7 Lean principles to software development
DSDM: Dynamic Systems Development Method is an Agile project delivery framework
Fixes cost, quality and time and uses MoSCoW prioritisation to deliver the project
Mixes Agile and plan-driven approaches without sacrificing what makes Agile work
DSDM uses: Facilitated Workshops
Modelling and Iterative Development
Timeboxing: e.g. Scrum, Kanban, Scrumban
MoSCoW Prioritisation: Must Have, Should Have, Could Have, Won’t Have
- Often interpreted within the current timebox
- ‘Must’ often meaning Minimum Useable Subset
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Summary
Planning ensures the appropriate work is done at the optimum time
to avoid nugatory work and so minimise cost
Plan holistically and agree the right approach, method and tools
Base the plan on the business case
Actively manage Risk – throughout the lifecycle, not just at the start
Planning is a team activity, not for project managers working alone
Quality of early work is critical
Understand the business case and the stakeholders
Do enough work to understand the requirements
Get the scope and the concept right – cost is largely set by start of implementation
Ensure PM competence is a match for project value, risk and complexity
Bid using the PM and core team that will run the project, if won
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Author Profile
In my board role I led a team of 22 Project Managers and 5 Quality Engineers, and ensured Roke’s £79m
project portfolio delivered better than budget profit. I set-up and ran a virtual PMO and created REP,
the Roke Engineering Process, also managing the engineering tools to support it.
After 4 years as an electronics engineer for Siemens, achieving Chartered Engineer,
I moved into project management for 14 years, at Siemens and Roke Manor Research.
Successfully delivering Roke’s most challenging whole lifecycle product developments
on time and under budget led to a role as Director and board member for 6 years.
In 2013 I returned to hands-on project management as Programme Director at
Cambridge Consultants, founder member of the Cambridge Science Park.
Creator of the APM corporate accredited PM Excellence Programme,
I chaired a quarterly PM forum to share best practice and built a
supportive PM community. I coached seven PMs to RPP, five to PQ,
and all passed APMP.
These investments in PM professionalism led to a turn-around and
annual improvement in project results across a 400 project portfolio
and delivered an above budget performance in five consecutive years
with profits totalling ÂŁ7.9m above budget.
Passionate advocate of PM professionalism, Fellow of the APM and
the IET and author of articles published in Project and PM Today.
Professional Development
Winning Project Work
Planning
Estimating
Risk Management
Earned Value Management
Change Control
Stakeholder Management
3 Steps to Professional Project Management: Case Study
ProjectManagementTopics

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Planning

  • 1. 1 of 24 Planning Define OBS Construct PBS & WBS Obtain Partner Estimates Define Team Define Tasks & Estimate Work Obtain Supplier Quotes Define Schedule Assess Estimation Uncertainty De-Risking Tasks Contingency Zero Risk Cost Estimate Total Project Cost Estimation Risk Pot Construct RAM and/or RACI Safety Costing Stakeholder Definition
  • 2. 2 of 24 What is Planning? ‘Planning is bringing the future into the present so that you can do something about it now’ ‘Failing to plan is planning to fail’ Alan Lakein, Time Management Expert How to Get Control of Your Time and Your Life, 1973 Identifying the methods, resources and activities to accomplish a project’s objectives APM Preparing a sequence of action steps to achieve some specific goal Wikipedia Planning creates a map to guide the journey to our destination - art rather than science - based on experience, domain knowledge and technical skill - requires innovative thinking - a team activity
  • 3. 3 of 24 Why Plan? Don’t plan on success – be realistic Planning identifies and documents the optimum approach to delivery 20% into a product development project 80% of the cost of ownership is set Change requires development iteration – so ideally, get it right first time Planning defines the right activities, in the right order to avoid nugatory work Well planned projects are more likely to succeed and enable easier communication The schedule, budget and risk pot form a baseline to manage performance against 0% 100% Concept Development NPI Operation Cost Time Opportunity for Improvement Committed Costs Actual Costs
  • 4. 4 of 24 Best Practice Association for Project Management Planning, Scheduling, Monitoring & Control [2015]  Introduction to Project Planning [2008]  The Scheduling Maturity Model [2012]  Project Management Institute Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures, Second Edition [2006]  Practice Standard for Scheduling, Second Edition [2011] 
  • 5. 5 of 24 Planning Process Optional elements in yellow Decide based on project value, risk & complexity Manage Team & Customer Review: Solution, Cost, Schedule, Risk, Price & Offer (Value & USPs) Requirements Define Delivery Strategy HSE Risk Assessment Define Tools & Process Write PM & Quality Plan Construct RAM and/or RACI Define OBS Construct PBS & WBS Obtain Partner Estimates Stakeholder Definition Define Team Define Tasks & Estimate Work Obtain Supplier Quotes Propose Solution(s) Risk Management Set Terms & Cash Flow Commercial Check & Offer Estimation Uncertainty Write SoW (Proposal) Define SoW Content Hazard Identification Safety Costing De-Risking Tasks Contingency Risk Register Zero Risk Cost Estimate Total Project Cost Estimation Risk Pot Schedule & Risk Graphs SoW (Proposal) Exec Summary Requirement Solution Assumptions Dependencies Compliance Matrix Process & Tools Team Communications Change ManagementRAM, RACI Team Stakeholder Plan & Map Plans: PM & Quality Configuration Management Communications Define Schedule
  • 6. 6 of 24 Keep People Safe HSE: Health, Safety and Environment Do a Risk Assessment to expose potential hazards EN ISO 14121-1 is a useful guide in defining potential hazards Consider the whole lifecycle: hazards may differ from one phase to the next Plan actions to deal with the hazards identified and reduce to an acceptable level the probability of harm to the team and other stakeholders There may be tasks and costs arising from the risk assessment: include these in planning
  • 7. 7 of 24 Break It Down Break the project down to help plan the work, assign responsibility, estimate and cost work PBS: Product Breakdown Structure Hierarchical breakdown of the project output starting from the primary deliverable For ‘product’ think ‘deliverable’ WBS: Work Breakdown Structure Hierarchical breakdown into a series of work packages: groups of tasks that can be estimated and assigned to a department, team or person 1 Event 1.2 Speakers1.1 Venue 1.2.2 Invite1.2.1 Select Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 1 Car 1.2 Engine1.1 Body 1.2.2 Clutch1.2.1 Gearbox Number of levels to suit size of project and degree of control required WBS is often lower levels of PBS with addition of tasks Level 1: Product Level 2: Sub-Assembly Level 3: Work Packages 1 Remote 1.2 Electronics1.1 Case 1.2.1 Radio Key Detect Function Select User Interface 1.2.2 Software Tasks (not part of WBS) Work Packages at Lowest WBS Level
  • 8. 8 of 24 WBS: Product or Function Draw the WBS based on the products or deliverables to ensure none are forgotten Different products mean every WBS will be unique Draw the WBS based on function and it is possible to have a template covering all functions for the type of project undertaken, e.g. in an electronics product development business Level 1: Product Level 2: Function Level 3: Work Packages Product ElectronicsMechanics Bluetooth Key Detect Function Select User Interface Software Schematic Layout Level 4: Tasks Software Manufacture Integration Test Management
  • 9. 9 of 24 Allocate & Communicate Responsibility OBS: Organisational Breakdown Structure Hierarchical breakdown of the project management structure and people Used to convey the project communication routes and reporting lines Useful for large complex projects in matrix based organisations Project Manager ProcurementEngineering Hardware Software Production Service Logistics RAM: Responsibility Assignment Matrix Combination of OBS and WBS RF Engineer 1 UI Engineer SMD Assembly BB Engineer RF Engineer 2 PM Product WBS2 WBS3 WBS1 WBS4 WP2 OBS3OBS2OBS1 WP1 WP3
  • 10. 10 of 24 Detail Roles RACI: Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed Hierarchical breakdown of the project management structure and people Used to convey the project communication routes and reporting lines Useful for large complex projects in matrix based organisations WP: Work Package PM Sponsor QA MD HR EPG CMMI Expert Project Planning R A I I I C C QA Gap Analysis C R C A R I CMMI Gap Analysis C A C I I R Site Communications R R C A I C C Proposal Analysis R C C I I R A C Improvement Projects A R C C CMMI Level 2 Achievement A R C I I I I R CMMI Level 3 Achievement A R C I I R Site Process Library Update R A R I C Responsible Do the WP work Can be multiple per WP Accountable Ultimate authority for the WP Only one per WP Consulted Their opinions are sought Two-way communication Informed Kept informed of progress One-way communication
  • 11. 11 of 24 Estimate and Manage Uncertainty Risk Management: Separate presentation: Risk Management Use to manage uncertainty, threats (negative impact) and opportunities (positive impact) Manage estimation uncertainty separately Estimating: Separate presentation: Estimating Decide type and estimate duration of effort and materials required to deliver the project Estimation Uncertainty All similar projects and past performance indicates suitable value? Add a percentage All projects different or no past delivery history? Use Range Estimating, 3 (or 4) point – described in separate presentation: Estimating PERT: Program Evaluation & Review Technique developed by US Navy in 1950s Uses 3 estimates per task: Optimistic, Most Likely & Pessimistic Calculates task duration as (O+(4xML)+P)/6 (not same formula as used in 3 point estimating) Schedule Contingency: Adding a time contingency to the project end date Useful where estimation uncertainty risk pot is used to fund keeping to most likely dates (i.e. with extra/better resource) rather than to fund additional time after most likely date
  • 12. 12 of 24 Plan Payment and Manage Stakeholders Commercial Considerations Cash flow: compare planned spend and planned invoicing, accounting for payment terms A neutral cash flow is fairest but can be hard to achieve; negotiate to get the fairest deal Do a commercial check and maybe an anti-corruption check, e.g. Transparency International Team Definition A Team Structure picture helps to understand roles and provides a handy contact sheet Stakeholder Management Know the stakeholders Decide where to invest time Separate presentation: Stakeholder Management
  • 13. 13 of 24 Plan then Schedule Planning is an activity that precedes scheduling Planning defines the strategy, methods, tools, risks More art than science Scheduling records the activities in a time ordered presentation: Network Diagrams or Bar Charts (Gantt) being the most used More science than art Scheduling uses the Work Breakdown Structure to organise the tasks that must be undertaken to deliver the project goals All but extremely simple projects require use of a specialist scheduling tool There are many tools available: Wikipedia PM Tool List Tool choice depends on a lot of factors, including integration with other tools
  • 14. 14 of 24 Scheduling Scheduling implements the plan  Incorporating all tasks  Including Risk Management tasks: threat mitigation and opportunity enhancement  Managing interdependencies  Developing a logical sequence of work  Accounting for working time  Optimising resource use:  Smoothing: Reduce peak resource demand without affecting Project Duration  Levelling: Solve limited resource issues – perhaps affecting Project Duration  Determining the Critical Path and Float  Calculating Work Package and overall Project Duration and cost  Determining the feasibility of project delivery within desired completion dates and cost Schedules should have a level of detail appropriate to the target audience
  • 15. 15 of 24 Scheduling: Network Diagrams Network Diagrams Clearly show the logic between tasks and are often where new project managers start Early Start Duration Early Finish Late Start Float Late Finish Task NameNetwork Node ES D=0 EF ES D=2 EF ES D=5 EF ES D=0 EF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF ES D=3 EF ES D=10 EF LS F LF LS F LF E Drink Juice F Finish BreakfastA Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal D Prepare Juice C Eat Cereal Earliest the task can finish Earliest the task can start Latest the task can start Latest the task can finish Tasks with Float > 0 can be delayed with no change in Project Duration Start by mapping the tasks, durations and dependencies Finish-to-Start dependency Milestone (zero duration task) Task
  • 16. 16 of 24 Scheduling: Network Example 1. Forward Pass Calculate ES & EF Start at first task where ES is always 0 ES = maximum EF of all predecessor tasks EF = ES + Duration Conclusion: Project Duration = last task EF = 13 minutes 2. Backward Pass Calculate LS & LF Start at last task where LF is the EF LF = minimum LS of all successor tasks LS = LF − Duration If start task LS is not 0, check maths! 3. Calculate Float & Critical Path Float = LF - EF or LS – ES Free Float = Task EF – Successor Task ES Start and Finish tasks have zero float Delay float tasks without changing Project Duration Delay free float tasks without affecting other tasks Critical Path is longest path through network, lowest float (usually 0) – Can be more than one – Can change Conclusion: Critical Path = A D E F = Shortest Project Duration ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13 LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13 LS F LF LS F LF A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal F Finish BreakfastC Eat Cereal D Prepare Juice E Drink Juice ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13 LS=0 F LF=0 LS=6 F LF=8 LS=8 F LF=13 LS=13 F LF=13 ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13 LS=0 F LF=3 LS=3 F LF=13 A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal D Prepare Juice C Eat Cereal F Finish Breakfast E Drink Juice ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13 LS=0 F=0 LF=0 LS=6 F=6 LF=8 LS=8 F=6 LF=13 LS=13 F=0 LF=13 ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13 LS=0 F=0 LF=3 LS=3 F=0 LF=13 F Finish Breakfast D Prepare Juice A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal E Drink Juice C Eat Cereal
  • 17. 17 of 24 Scheduling: Bar Charts Bar or Gantt Charts Developed in 1910 by Henry Gantt, this is the most used format in scheduling software Show tasks on a common timescale unlike Network Diagrams Careful structure & style needed if logic is to be clear Can be rolled-up, hiding and revealing detail as necessary Mark key outputs as Milestones – often with major milestones grouped at the top Typically Finish-to-Start, dependencies can be Start-to-Start, Start-to-Finish or Finish-to-Finish Minutes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 A Start Breakfast F Finish Breakfast B Prepare Cereal C Eat Cereal D Prepare Juice E Drink Juice Float Finish-to-start dependency Milestone (Zero Duration) Critical Path
  • 18. 18 of 24 Schedule Design Task ID: Unique task identification, often following WBS element or finance system number Task Descriptions: Use meaningful, specific text to describe a task Milestones: Zero duration tasks – group significant milestones at the top Lag: a time period between tasks where no work is done Lead: a negative Lag, which makes no sense as time only runs forward, so don’t use! Lags and Leads are both hidden in a schedule Dummy: No work tasks used to provide visibility, e.g. Tooling Leadtime Use a Dummy Task rather than a Lag Hammocks: Task which expands and contracts depending on the tasks that it is linked to Calendars: Include common non-working time in schedule calendars, e.g. public holidays Include typical holiday periods or individual calendars per resource where useful Plan on standard working hours – overtime and weekends should be for crises only
  • 19. 19 of 24 Other Flavours are Available Rolling Wave Planning is planning in phases, sections or waves as the project proceeds High level overall milestones are set and the most immediate section planned in detail Later sections of work are planned only in outline As the current section nears completion and later details become clearer, the next section of work is planned in detail, and so on What If planning is used to look at outcomes, assuming the What-if scenario succeeds Probabilistic planning is used where a number of branches are possible, each with a probability of occurrence which can be modelled using monte carlo simulation BIM: Building Information Modelling is the generation and management of digital representations of the physical and functional characteristics of an asset – starting from a 2D or 3D model and adding time and cost information
  • 20. 20 of 24 Critical Chain CCPM: Critical Chain Project Management is derived from the Theory of Constraints Developed in 1997 by Eliyahu Goldratt as an alternative to Critical Path analysis Credited with achieving projects 10% to 50% faster and/or cheaper than older methods CCPM asserts that estimation contingency is generally wasted due to poor multitasking, student syndrome, Parkinson's Law and poorly synchronized integration CCPM planning aggregates the task contingency time into buffers Buffer management instead of EVM is used to assess the performance of a project Critical Chain Planning Process 1. Create WBS 2. Work backwards from the end date moving all tasks to start as late as possible 3. Adjust task to two durations: 50% and 95% likely (or remove a fixed percentage) 4. Assign resources to tasks and level resources using 50% likely durations – we assume half will be early and half will be late, so the net result will be time 5. Critical Chain is the longest sequence of resource levelled tasks from project start to end 6. Accumulate the 95% durations minus the 50% durations in a buffer at the end of the project – for the Critical Chain tasks 7. Do the same for each sequence of tasks that feed into the Critical Chain 8. Give the date at the end of the Critical Chain project buffer as the project delivery date
  • 21. 21 of 24 Agile Software Development A collection of tools, structure, culture and discipline, and planning integrated with execution A framework aimed at helping a team respond effectively to changing requirements Does not require an upfront effort to document all requirements A prioritized list of desired features, the Product Backlog is developed as more is learned Features are written as Stories and allocated points based on their level of definition Rather than assigning tasks to team members (‘push’), team members choose tasks (‘pull’) In Scrum, a Sprint is a fixed iteration of typically 1-4 weeks, fixed prior to each Sprint Backlog items are planned into each Sprint prior to starting and cannot be added during Team members choose tasks prior to starting a Sprint and all must be done before the end Tasks that would exceed the Sprint duration are split into smaller tasks In Kanban the team works continuously, typically with releases shorter than 1 week Scrumban is continuous work with short iterations for planning and longer cycles for release Unlike Scrum, tasks are chosen during Kanban or Scrumban rather than at the start Demand Planning occurs when the team run out of product backlog items Alternatively, Release Planning occurs when the code or version is released Backlog items can be added during a sprint as long as the team has capacity to do them
  • 22. 22 of 24 Agile Methods As well as Scrum, Kanban and Scrumban, there are many other Agile Methods XP: Extreme Programming In 1999 Kent Beck published a book advocating taking existing best practices to extremes e.g. code reviews are best practice so XP advocates continuous code review (pair programming) LSD: Lean Software Development In 2003 Mary & Tom Poppendieck applied the 7 Lean principles to software development DSDM: Dynamic Systems Development Method is an Agile project delivery framework Fixes cost, quality and time and uses MoSCoW prioritisation to deliver the project Mixes Agile and plan-driven approaches without sacrificing what makes Agile work DSDM uses: Facilitated Workshops Modelling and Iterative Development Timeboxing: e.g. Scrum, Kanban, Scrumban MoSCoW Prioritisation: Must Have, Should Have, Could Have, Won’t Have - Often interpreted within the current timebox - ‘Must’ often meaning Minimum Useable Subset
  • 23. 23 of 24 Summary Planning ensures the appropriate work is done at the optimum time to avoid nugatory work and so minimise cost Plan holistically and agree the right approach, method and tools Base the plan on the business case Actively manage Risk – throughout the lifecycle, not just at the start Planning is a team activity, not for project managers working alone Quality of early work is critical Understand the business case and the stakeholders Do enough work to understand the requirements Get the scope and the concept right – cost is largely set by start of implementation Ensure PM competence is a match for project value, risk and complexity Bid using the PM and core team that will run the project, if won
  • 24. 24 of 24 Author Profile In my board role I led a team of 22 Project Managers and 5 Quality Engineers, and ensured Roke’s ÂŁ79m project portfolio delivered better than budget profit. I set-up and ran a virtual PMO and created REP, the Roke Engineering Process, also managing the engineering tools to support it. After 4 years as an electronics engineer for Siemens, achieving Chartered Engineer, I moved into project management for 14 years, at Siemens and Roke Manor Research. Successfully delivering Roke’s most challenging whole lifecycle product developments on time and under budget led to a role as Director and board member for 6 years. In 2013 I returned to hands-on project management as Programme Director at Cambridge Consultants, founder member of the Cambridge Science Park. Creator of the APM corporate accredited PM Excellence Programme, I chaired a quarterly PM forum to share best practice and built a supportive PM community. I coached seven PMs to RPP, five to PQ, and all passed APMP. These investments in PM professionalism led to a turn-around and annual improvement in project results across a 400 project portfolio and delivered an above budget performance in five consecutive years with profits totalling ÂŁ7.9m above budget. Passionate advocate of PM professionalism, Fellow of the APM and the IET and author of articles published in Project and PM Today. Professional Development Winning Project Work Planning Estimating Risk Management Earned Value Management Change Control Stakeholder Management 3 Steps to Professional Project Management: Case Study ProjectManagementTopics