AFRICA’S NEW ECONOMY: INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY AS CATALYSTS FOR ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
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23rd ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS OF THE AFRICAN EXPORT-IMPORT BANK (AFREXIMBANK) MAHE, SEYCHELLES , 20-22 JULY 2016
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AFRICA’S NEW ECONOMY: INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY AS CATALYSTS FOR ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
- 1. Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 23rd ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS OF THE AFRICAN EXPORT-IMPORT BANK (AFREXIMBANK) MAHE, SEYCHELLES , 20-22 JULY 2016 AFRICA’S NEW ECONOMY: INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY AS CATALYSTS FOR ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION Plenary Session: The Blue Economy or Economy in the Blues: Can Africa’s Seas and Oceans Transform the Continent?
- 2. What is the potential? Where is the potential? Why do we need to unlock the potential? How do we unlock the potential? What are the problems?
- 6. Marine and Fresh water NASA Planet Earth Photo About 72% of the Earth’s surface, with about 97 in oceans BUT Share of fishery products in total food supply % 1998 2011 Calories 1.1 1.3 Proteins 6.0 6.7
- 7. 795 million people estimated to be undernourished in 2014–16, down 100 million in the last decade. The vast majority, 780 million, live in developing countries. Hunger
- 8. Share of fish in animal protein • >20% for more than 3 billion people • >50% in many developing countries: Cambodia (69%) Maldives (67%) Sierra Leone (65%) Gambia (57%) Bangladesh (56%) Indonesia (55%0 Sri Lanka(54%), Ghana (50%)
- 9. A source of the long-chain omega-3 fatty acids Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) Important for optimal brain and neural system development in children (1000 day window!) Lowers the risk of coronary heart disease related (CHD) mortality. A daily intake of 250 mg of EPA and DHA per adult gives optimal protection against CHD. At least two meals of fish a week! 9 Fish and Nutrition
- 10. Fisheries Important Employer Employment growth in FI + AQ higher than in traditional agriculture Millions of people are directly engaged in the fisheries sector Women represent half of those involved in the fisheries sector FI + AQ support the livelihoods of 10-12 % of the global population
- 11. Capture Fisheries Marine Fresh Aquaculture Marine Fresh Brackish Finfish Bivalves Seaweed Crustaceans What are we achieving now?
- 12. What are we achieving now? Fish production and utilization Fish production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita fish supply (kg) Excluding aquatic plants. 2014/2015: estimates/forecast 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 Non-food uses Capture for human consumption Aquaculture for human consumption Per capita food fish supply Excluding aquatic plants. 2015: estimate; 2016 forecast
- 13. What are we achieving now? Capture fisheries production million tonnes live weight Including aquatic plants 2014 Including aquatic plants 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Inland waters Marine areas Freshwater fishes 11% Diadromou s fishes 2% Marine fishes 70% Crustaceans 7% Molluscs 8% Miscellane ous aquatic animals 1% Aquatic plants 1%
- 14. million tonnes live weight Including aquatic plants What are we achieving now? Aquaculture production 2014 Freshwater fishes 42% Diadromous fishes 5% Marine fishes 2% Crustaceans 7% Molluscs 16% Miscellaneous aquatic animals 1% Aquatic plants 27% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Brackishwater Freshwater Marine
- 15. Global Primary Production Total Continental 115 billion tons a year Total Marine 55 billion tons a year What is the potential?
- 16. Primary Production Mean NPP (g/m^2/year) Total Continental 773 Total Marine 152 What is the potential?
- 17. World Biomass/Standing Stock Total Continental 1837 billion tons Total Marine 3.9 billion tons What is the potential?
- 18. We are only using a fraction of the Ocean Space and PP today. 1.What can we achieve with in the conventional? 2. Can we use more of the PP? 3. Can we increase the PP? Are there limits? Yes ( Technical, Environmental) What are the limits? We don’t know
- 19. How do we unlock the potential?
- 20. FAO Blue Growth Initiative Aim: To contribute to the promotion of sustainable use and conservation of aquatic living resources Four components: Capture Fisheries Aquaculture Ecosystem services contributing to livelihoods, and Trade/markets/post harvest and social support
- 21. Capture Fisheries: Increase, Sunken Billions, CCRF, EAF. Biological management and conservation, business management, political/economic management. Contribution to Blue Growth : - 10 - 20 million tons - USD 50-100 billion annually Capture fisheries are an important source of food, nutrition, employment and income for millions of people, particularly in remote rural areas - Capture fisheries face serious challenges: Degraded environment and ecosystems Overexploited fish stocks IUU fishing Climate change and ocean acidification
- 22. • . OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2025) Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2013-15 average. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red. WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red Country/ region Fish Demand (2030) Total fish prod. (2012, mil. tonne) S-D gap 2030 (col. 4 minus col. 3) kg/cap. Total (mil. tonne) WORLD 29.1 261.2 156.5 -104.7 S.S. Africa 10.8 15.1 6.9 -8.2 L.A. & C. 12.2 18.3 14.8 -3.4 N. Africa 12.9 3.7 2.8 -0.8 Europe 27.3 23.4 16.0 -7.4 N. America 29.8 12.9 6.7 -6.1 Oceania 31.9 1.8 1.4 -0.3 Asia 37.0 186.3 107.8 -78.5 Future fish supply and demand projections FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results) Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged 49.1 47.2 31.7 24.3 26.4 22.2 16.7 12.2 9.1 6.7 21.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Japan China Australia and New Zealand North America Asia and Oceania dev.ing Europe Northern Africa Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa India WORLD 2025
- 23. Aquaculture: GAAP, EAA, biological management and conservation (incl. bio-security), business management, planning and regulatory implementation Contribution to Blue Growth: • 50-100 million tonnes a year
- 24. Trade/markets/post harvest and social support: Waste reduction, non-food v. food utilization, customs tariff issues, most traded, social complexities in Small Scale Fisheries. Contribution to Blue growth: • From non-food: 10 million tonnes • From waste food: 15 million tonnes
- 25. Other or “novel” ecosystem services: Mangroves, storm/wave bulwarks, sea-grass carbon sequestration and UN-REDD, greater symbiosis with crops (rice etc./fish production, fertilizer/pesticide runoffs), tourism (nature, culinary, culture), salt beds, algae and phytoplankton primary production. Contribution to Blue Growth: The sky’s the limit !!!
- 26. …”in cod we trust”…..but Source: Statistics Iceland 1981: catch of 460 th.tn 1984 quota system 2008: catch of 151 th.tn. 263 thousand.tn: average catch 1945-2014 2014:catch of 238 th.tn.
- 27. Implementation of research outcomes creates impact
- 28. State of World Marine Fish Stocks
- 29. Where is the potential?
- 32. Global Policy and Trade Session: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges, 1st March 2016, Bergen, Norway http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/global-policy-and-trade-session-outlook-for-world-seafood-trade-2030-prospects-and-challenges Combatting IUU Fishing through the implementation of the Port State Measures Agreement and other instruments , 15th February 2016, London, United Kingdom http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/combatting-iuu-fishing-through-the-implementation-of-the-port-state-measures-agreement-and-other- instruments Celebrating 20 Years of the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries 153rd Session FAO Council , Rome, 30 November - 4 December 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/celebrating-20-years-of-the-code-of-conduct-for-responsible-fisheries-presentation-under-fao-council- 153rd-session-rome-30-november-4-december-2015 International Trade in Fish and Fish Production“Foro Económico de Pesca y Acuacultura 2015”Mexico City 26-27 November 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/international-trade-in-fish-and-fish-production Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact, Boracay Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y Blue bio-economy - unlocking the potential of seas and oceans, International Conference Growth in Blue Bio-economy, FAROE ISL ANDS • 2-3 JUNE 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/rniMatthiasMathiesen/blue-bio-economy-unlocking-the-potential-of-seas-and-oceans Outlook for Fish Trade 2030, 10th North Atlantic Seafood Conference, Bergen, 4-5 March 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/outlook-for-fish-trade-2030-10th-north-atlantic-seafood-conference-bergen-45-march- 2015?ref=http://www.fao.org/fishery/DirectorsMedia/en Future Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture and their contribution to preserving food security, Lima, Peru, 24 February 2015 Future Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture and their contribution to preserving food security - YouTube Presentations
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Fishing is an ancient practice dating back at least forty thousand years to a time during the Paleolithic when we were still hunter gatherers. To put this timeline in perspective homo sapiens our own species appeared 200.000 years ago and by this time we had started to wear cloths, moved away from home, that is out of Africa and further afield. But we didn’t start farming until about 20.000years later. However, there were still some very interesting beast around like wooly rhinos, mammoth and sabre toothed cats. And a lot of climate change was still to be experienced. Techniques were very simple hand gathering, spearing possibly angling and netting and trapping came later. Evidence of this early fishing engagement can be seen from isotopic analysis of skeletal remains of Tianyuan man in China as well early examples of settlements are always associated with fishing as a major source of food as e.g. in Lepenski Vir in Serbia. Fishing then develops steadily through the ages and is basically an important part of most ancient societies and is accredited to the Chines folklore hero Fu Xi, has its own champion in the Greco-Roman God Neptune with is fishing trident and has its important place in the Bible. It is also clear that trade developed early and to a large extent around fishing and the trade in fishing was also often linked to and related to the trade in salt. This is not surprising since when permanent settlement started to appear fishing communities were perhaps less self-sufficient than others for many items and therefore needed to trade more than others. This is not at all at odds with their still hunter gatherer nature since they are known to trade extensively with outside communities. In fact trade in certain products and trade-links in these products that still exist today can be over a thousand years old as is the case in the trade between the Nordic Countries and Italy in stockfish.
- Aquaculture is much younger than capture fisheries and much younger than agriculture. The cradle is undoubtedly in China and in the second millennium BCE even though eels may have been raised as early as 6000 in Australia. Farming is thought to have started when fish, probably the common carp ended up accidentally in flooded rice paddies after bad weather. A fortunate genetic mutation later during the Tang dynasty led to the emergence of gold fish. However, aquaculture was known in various areas of the world such as Japan, Hawaii and romans also bred fish in ponds. This tradition migrated to monasteries in central Europe which in that way kept themselves stocked with fish in spite of long distance from the ocean. Aquaculture as we know it today has however evolved from the late 19th. Century but the production levels we know today only started appearing after 1950. In spite of great production strides in salmonids in western countries China is the by far the greatest producer in a production volume which now totals half the fish supplied for human consumption.
- I cannot update this graph to 2013, as only a limited number of countries are updated to 2013 for agricultural products and no world aggregate is available
- The latest FAO estimates indicate that global hunger reduction continues: about 795 million people are estimated to be chronically undernourished in 2014–16 most of them in developing countries. This is down more than 167 million over the last decade, and 216 million lower than in 1990–92. In the same period, the prevalence of undernourishment has fallen from 18.6 percent to 10.9 percent globally and from 23.3 to 12.9 percent for the developing countries. We can not say that there haven’t been improvements but there is still a long way to go until we reach our goal. ALTERNATIVE GRAPH
- Cambodia (69%) Maldives (67%) Sierra Leone (65%) Gambia (57%) Bangladesh (56%) Indonesia (55%0 Sri Lanka(54%), Ghana (50%)
- 56.6 million people in the primary sector only in 2014. For the sentence relative to women: A recent publication estimates that, globally, when primary and secondary fishery sector engagement are combined, women make up half of the workforce (SOFIA 2016)
- Aquatic plants are not included. The graph includes also estimates for 2015 and forecast for 2016. In 2014, aquaculture has overtaken capture fisheries as the main source of fish for human consumption. In FAO apparent fish consumption statistics aquatic plants are at present not considered as difficult to determine the share of aquatic plants consumed as food. Total production in 2014: 167.2 million tonnes. In 2015 171 million tonnes and 2016 175 million tonnes. 2014 2015 2016 Capture fisheries 93.4 93.5 93.6 Of which for human consumption 72.5 71.9 72.2 Aquaculture 73.8 77.5 81.4 Per capita consumption was 20.1 kg in 2014 and estimates for 2015 are for 20.3 kg and could reach up to 20.6 kg in 2016 according to forecast.
- These graphs refer to 2014 data, the latest year available for comprehensive fishery production statistics of FAO. Respect to the previous slide, and as requested last time, this graph includes aquatic plants Total capture fisheries production of fish, crustaceans, molluscs, other aquatic animals and aquatic plants was 94.6 million tonnes in 2014
- Aquatic plants included as well Total aquaculture fisheries production of fish, crustaceans, molluscs, other aquatic animals and aquatic plants was 104 million tonnes in 2014. So if aquatic plants are included, aquaculture has overtaken capture fisheries since 2013.
- This graph is not clear to me on how it has been calculated and to what refers The production of capture and aquaculture in marine waters in 2014 was 108 million tonnes
- This graph is not clear to me on how it has been calculated and to what refers The production of capture and aquaculture in marine waters in 2014 was 108 million tonnes
- This graph is not clear to me on how it has been calculated and to what refers The production of capture and aquaculture in marine waters in 2014 was 108 million tonnes
- The aim of the Blue Growth Initiative BGI is to promote the sustainable use and conservation of aquatic renewable resources, in an economically, socially and environmentally responsible manner. It is a cross-cutting initiative which would provide global, regional and national impact to increase food security, improve nutrition, reduce poverty of coastal and riparian communities and support sustainable management of aquatic resources. Within the SPF and for the implementation of PWB 14-15, the Blue Growth Initiative is now a Major Area of Work anchored in SO2 where it clusters relevant P/S and underpinning activities, but reaches out to related P/S in other SOs and activities in the other technical units, which impact on the health and performance of the aquatic eco-systems and dependent communities. At the regional level, it aligns its support with the RAP regional initiative on aquaculture and contributes to other regional initiatives such as water scarcity in RNE and Rice Initiative in RAP. At the national level, several countries have adopted national strategies for blue growth and are seeking FAO technical support in implementing these strategies. Work has been recently initiated in Indonesia, and about to be initiated for Gabon, Algeria and Senegal. Finally, at the global level, the BGI aligns with major organizations (such as UNEP, OECD, World Bank and the EU) and their initiatives launched to promote the concept. These organizations have welcomed a collaboration with FAO on the Blue Growth/Blue Economy. As Global Initiative, it is conducive to resource mobilization (e.g. GEF 6) and advocacy in major events discussing major issues related to Oceans.
- Capture fisheries have the potential if we respond correctly to climate change and otherwise do the right things to improve both research, policies and management, to increase production by 10-20 million tons per year and increase global fisheries income by 50 billion USD annually.
- One of the main driving elements behind the BGI is the future predicted scenarios we see in the modeling work we have done in the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of FAO on our own or with others. The OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections to 2025, shown top left on the slide, predicts increasing consumption in most regions of the world up to an average level of almost 21.8 kg per capita per annum compared to the widely recommended level of around 15 kg per capita per annum. Consumption increases in all continents. The results from the WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 projections show world consumptions at almost 19 kg per capita per annum. However, there are very varied changes in consumption between the regions. Most of them are positive or do not cause concern but the drop in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa down to below 6 kg is very worrying as well as the drop in the already low levels in Latin America and the Caribbean region and in the North-Africa and Middle-East region to below 8 and 10 kg respectively. Here we should remember, as I mentioned earlier that the recommended levels are around 15 kg per capita per annum. It is surely obvious to all that were this to be the reality by 2030, it would be totally unacceptable to all of us. The present level of world fisheries and aquaculture consumption is 160-170 million tons a year. The predictions from the various scenarios in the Fish to 2030 report are all around 200 million tons per year. This is roughly consistent with the OECD-FAO outlook trend. In a simplified demand model done by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department using as drivers population growth and GDP growth based on the link between GDP and fish consumption, and essentially removing all production restrictions, the results are that the world would want to consume 260 million tons of fish by 2030 if supply was available. Under this scenario the world would consume on the average just shy of 30 kg per capita per annum and Sub-Saharan Africa, North-Africa and the Middle-East region and Latin America and the Caribbean region would all consume 3-5 kg more fish per capita per annum or 11-13 kg per capita per annum. This would be a result by 2030 that we could all live with but to get that result we need to produce more fish by 2030, to the tune of 100 million tons a year more than we produce today.
- Aquaculture, however, is the most important Blue Growth pathway to meet the challenge of bridging the 100 million ton gap, through the Global Aquaculture Advancement Platform, which was warmly received and endorsed by the COFI Sub-committee on Aquaculture in St. Petersburg in 2013 and then at COFI in Rome in June last year. At current growth rates aquaculture could produce an additional 50 million tons of fish annually. However, growth rates have been falling and this we must prevent. Not by any means but only by sustainable means, since, if the growth is not sustainable, then one day the industry will collapse and cause us greater problems that we can even foresee today. In the past, the industry has grown even faster than it grows today and if these growth rates could be regained, aquaculture could even bridge the gap on its own. We must however remember that the world will not end in 2030, or at least I hope not, and it is therefore good to know that the aquaculture industry can even respond to fish demand post 2030. Ladies and gentlemen, some of you will undoubtedly, and not unreasonable be thinking: “this guy is crazy, aquaculture can never produce as much fish as this without seriously damaging the environment” !! Maybe so, but who else can then produce the animal proteins, the omega 3 fatty acids and all the other nutrients we talked about earlier to feed the growing world population?
- The sector of fisheries and aquaculture contributes significantly to national economies, income and livelihood for millions of people around the world. In 2014, the first sale value of capture fisheries was estimated at US$ 100 billion and that of aquaculture at 98 billion, in addition to US$ 7.4 billion of aquatic plants. This harvest undergoes a primary and a secondary processing before distribution, generating additional value at each subsequent step, estimated in 2007 at US$ 90 billion, 180 US$ billion and 350 US$ billion respectively for primary processing, secondary processing and distribution. This value addition is also accompanied by employment opportunities, especially for women employed in first and secondary processing in developing countries. Employment in fisheries and aquaculture: - 56.6 million persons in fisheries and aquaculture 2014 as direct employment 10-12% of the population depend on the sector for their livelihoods FIGURE TO BE DELETED SEE COMMENTS SLIDE 20
- In non-traditional ecosystem services the sky is the limit, ranging from carbon capture in sea grass beds that can at best be 5-10 times as effective as tropical forests, to rice-fish systems and nature, culture and culinary tourism in coastal areas including coral reefs. This we are already working on with some of our partner countries.
- However, as mentioned earlier, aquaculture production has expanded greatly. This growth has been disproportionate around the world, which gives us reason to believe that there is still great scope for expansion for years to come. Asia, and particularly China, lead both in production of aquaculture products as well as in consumption of fish in general.