Presented by Matthias Spöttle, Transport expert, Ecofys

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TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
ROLE IN FACILITATING THE
TRANSITION TOWARDS
NEW ENERGY SYSTEMS
4TH ARAB FORUM FOR
RENEWABLE
ENERGY AND ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
7TH MAY 2018
TRANSITION TO E-MOBILITY

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Contents
1. Ecofys – a Navigant company
2. Transition to e-mobility
3. Flagship references

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AT A GLANCE: ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY
Global consulting company founded in 1984 with the mission to enable sustainable
energy for everyone – since 2016, Ecofys has been part of Navigant’s global Energy
practice
We have over 600 experts skilled in energy, climate, environment, economy,
communication, law, and psychology – in 2007, 11 of our experts supporting the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were awarded the Nobel Prize together with
Al Gore
More than 30 years of experience in developing and evaluating policies, sustainability
strategies, and scenarios for companies and sectors provides us with deep knowledge of
markets and consumer behaviour
Our strength lies in our strategic understanding of complex energy and climate transition
issues: Ecofys connects the dots within the triangle between governments, energy
players, and energy-intensive end-users
Ecofys has five offices in four countries: Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cologne & Berlin,
Germany; Brussels, Belgium; London, United Kingdom – as part of Navigant, our experts
are based in more than 20 offices in the US and Canada, Hong Kong, and the Middle
East
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A SELECTION OF ORGANISATIONS THAT ECOFYS SERVED
Department of Energy and Climate Change UK (DECC) | GIZ Germany | Dutch Railways (NS) | European Commission |
EuropeAid | Federal Environment Ministry GER (BMUB) | Federal Institute for Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial
Development GER (BBSR) | Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) | Hamburg | Kosovo | MASDAR |
Ministry of Economic Affairs NL | Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment NL | Netherlands Enterprise Agency
(RVO) | Port of Rotterdam | Umweltbundesamt GER (UBA)
Corporate
clients
Agora Energiewende | Asian Development Bank (ADB) | ASN Bank | Climate and Development Knowledge Network
(CDKN) | Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) | European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(EBRD) | European Climate Foundation (ECF) | European Investment Bank (EIB) | Global Green Growth Institute
(GGGI) | KR Foundation | SNS Bank | World Bank | World Resources Institute (WRI) | World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
Alpro | Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI) | Catalyst | CEFIC | CEMBUREAU | Coca-Cola | Danone | Electrolux |
ENECO Group | E.On | EURIMA | Eurofer | European Copper Institute | European Lime Association (EuLA) | EWT Project
B.V. | Gasunie | H&M | HP | IKEA | Johnson & Johnson | International Air Transport Association (IATA) | International
Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA) | International Post Cooperation (IPC) | LEGO | National Geographic | Nokia
Siemens Network | Philips Lightning | Royal KPN NV | Shell | Siemens | Tennet | Tetra Pak | Vattenfall
NGOs and
Institutions
Public
clients

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Contents
1. Ecofys – A Navigant company
2. Transition to e-mobility
3. Flagship references

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INTRODUCTION
WHY E-MOBILITY?
<50 kW
AC charging at home
DC charging
 Electrification of road transport leads to noise reduction in cities and GHG reduction
 Electrification of road transport has to be combined with transition to renewable energy sources
29 billion
tons CO2

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INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS E-MOBILITY?
 Plugin Electric vehicles (PEV) can be fueled at different rates of speed and at different locations
 Typical battery capacity and charging modes:
 PEV users have a preference to charge at home or at work, due to lower costs and price transparency
 Public charging is needed for flexibility and to mitigate range anxiety
 Set up of charging mode depends on grid connection and available capacity in kW at location
<50 kWh
AC charging at home
3.7 - 11 kW
AC charging at work
11- 22 kW
DC charging
22 kW – 50 kW
Ultra DC charging
> 50 kW

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E-MOBILITY
FRONTRUNNERS ON E-MOBILITY
2017 NOR NL UK DE F USA China
PEV market share
new registrations
39.2 % 2.2 % 1.9 % 1.56 % 1.75 % 1.2% 1.4 %
PEV share of total
stock
7.7 % 1.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.7 %
Public AC
charging points
8,292 32,120 11,497 10,878 14,407 36,883 52,779
Public DC
charging points
2,058 755 2,759 566 1,904 5,128 88,476
Based on PEV share of total stock diffusion of innovation theory distinguishes between:
1. Early Majority – Only Norway is in that stage with more than 7 % PEV share of total stock
2. Early Adopters – This stage would require more than 2.5 % PEV share of total stock
3. Market Stage Innovators – Other frontrunners are still in this stage
4. Late Majority
5. Laggards

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E-MOBILITY
SOUND RATIO OF PEVS PER PUBLIC CHARGING POINT IS KEY
Source: Own calculations based based on EAFO 2017, IEA 2017, US Department of Energy 2017, BDEW 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of PEVs per charging point
China France Germany Netherlands Norway UK USA
 EU legislation recommends ideal ratio at 10 PEVs per public charging point
 Higher ratio reduces accessibility of charging points, thereby limiting PEV uptake
 Lower ratio reduces profitability of public charging point

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E-MOBILITY
TRANSITION TO E-MOBILITY IS CHALLENGING BUT DOABLE
• Battery costs drive PEV price but these costs are decreasing (8% / year). We
expect cost parity of PEVs and conventional vehicles by 2020
• Policy incentives are needed to support PEV market uptake (e.g. tax exemption
in Norway)
• Public investments in sufficient charging infrastructure are necessary to
mitigate range anxiety
• Charging points need to be registered in publicly accessible real-time database
showing location and availability of charging points
• Regional or international defined standards for plugs, communication and
payment protocols will ensure that PEV drives can charge ad-hoc at every
charging point without the need for a contract with specific charge point
operator
• Charging requires sufficient coverage of power supply
• PEVs will have an impact on the grid, but smart and bi-directional (V2G)
charging reduces the need for investments in the grid
• Transition of power system to 100 % renewable energy sources is needed to
maximize GHG emission reduction due to the electrification of road transport
PEVs are expansive
Range Anxiety
Standardization
Grid connection and
power system
Transition towards
renewable energy

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Contents
1. Ecofys – a Navigant company
2. Transition to e-mobility
3. Flagship references

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FLAGSHIP REFERENCES
EXPERTS ON E-MOBILITY
Assessment of challenges of EV charging infrastructure in the EU
• Assessment status quo of charging infrastructure and respective
policies
• Analyzing the linkage between EV uptake and charging infrastructure
• Identification of global business models for charging
• Drafting of policy recommendation to promote resource efficient,
productive, and resilient EU e-mobility policies
AC 2030 scenarios for e-mobility and impact analysis
• Compiled all e-mobility and other low or zero emission
technologies and assessed them to demonstrate their potential for
GHG emission cuts from road transport in 2030
• Development of scenarios in which 10%, 30% and 50% emission
reductions are realized compared to the 2005 situation
Long-term E-mobility vision
• Forecast of market uptake of EVs and required charging
infrastructure to fulfil demand
• Scenario analysis for the optimal charging infrastructure rollout to
facilitate the electric vehicle uptake scenarios

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FLAGSHIP REFERENCES
SUPPORTING GERMAN CLIMATE & ENERGY COOPERATION
Support of the German Energy Partnership with the Gulf
Countries
• Focus: Supporting the German government in the establishment
of energy relations with the Gulf countries incl. working papers,
expert workshops and study trips on energy efficiency
• Client: BMWi
Support of the Climate & Energy Working Group of the German
G20 presidency
• Focus: Support of the German G20 presidency in its negotiations
for the climate & energy working group incl. energy efficiency & in
high-level workshops & conferences
• Client: BMWi
Support of German Climate Protection Communication
• Focus: Support of „Climate Protection in Numbers“ flagship
publication communicating German climate action
• Client: BMUB

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FLAGSHIP REFERENCES
STRONG TECHNICAL AND REGIONAL EXPERTISE
MED-ENEC I & II: Energy Efficiency in the Construction Sector
in the Mediterranean area
• Focus: improve overall conditions for the use of energy efficiency and
renewable energy technologies in the building sector
• Client: EU Commission (part I), GIZ for EU Commission (part II)
Towards a low-carbon building sector in the
MENA region
• Focus: increase use of efficient and/or renewable energy-based
heating and cooling systems
• Client: BMUB
Development of sectoral marginal abatement
cost curves for Turkey
• Focus: development of a sectoral GHG mitigation
plan and climate mitigation strategy
• Client: World Bank Group

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THANK YOU!
MATTHIAS SPOETTLE
Managing Consultant
+49 (0)30 29773579-44
matthias.spoettle@navigant.com

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