Applications of the GAINS model for integrated policy design

1. Pallav Purohit
(MAG Program, IIASA)
Applications of the GAINS model
for integrated policy design
GAINS Seminar
Pakistan Institute of Engineering & Applied Sciences (PIEAS), Islamabad
6th November 2012
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2. Contents
• Integrated Assessment Modeling
• The GAINS Model
– Methodology
– Policies, Measures and Technologies
– Emissions, Costs and Impacts
• Summary
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3. Economic development → Economic development and air pollution
… to global
climate change
… and regional pollution …
… over urban smog …
From indoor pollution …
Scale of pollution →
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4. Integrated assessment
Meteorology/Physics
Human health
Costs
Socio-Economic Activities
Technologies
Emissions Ecosystems
Atmospheric Chemistry
Existing Regulation
Provide useful information to decision makers in a timely manner
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5. Policy questions for an IAM
• What are the implications of current legislation on future
environmental impacts?
• How far could future impacts be reduced?
• How much would it cost?
• How can it be done in the most cost-effective way?
• Who would have to pay?
• How much would it cost to reduce air pollution levels to
a given standard in a country/region?
• For the worst-affect areas only?
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6. Policy questions for an IAM (Cont’d)
• What is the cheapest way to reduce health impacts on
the population?
• Which measures should be taken?
• In which economic sectors?
• Which pollutants should be addressed?
• In which regions?
• Which air pollution controls maximize the reduction of
greenhouse gases?
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7. The Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution INteractions and
Synergies (GAINS) Model
• is an integrated assessment modeling and policy planning tool
that helps to identify smart strategies to protect the local,
regional, and global atmosphere while imposing the least
burden on economic development
• is used by the EU, UN-ECE, and various individual countries
(Sweden, Netherlands, Italy, Ireland, China, Japan, …) for
developing air quality policies
• its predecessor RAINS was instrumental in designing important
protocols of the LRTAP Convention
– 2nd Sulfur Protocol
– Gothenburg Protocol
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8. Air pollution policy in Europe
(with support of the GAINS model)
• UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (1979)
– SO2 protocols 1985, 1994
– NOx protocol 1988
– VOC protocol 1991
– Protocols on heavy metals and POP 1998
– Gothenburg Protocol (acid., eutroph. and ozone) 1999
• EU Legislation
– Air Quality Directives (1980 - 1998)
– Technology-related Directives (LCP, IPPC, solvents, Auto-Oil, etc.)
– National Emission Ceilings Directive (2001)
– Thematic Strategy on Air pollution (2005)
– National Emission Ceilings Directive (ongoing)
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9. Why GAINS is different?
• It’s transparent:
– Online model: Results of analysis + input data
– Reviewed (by scientific peers and stakeholders)
• It’s participatory:
– Close consultation with governments and experts from
different countries (in Europe: over 35 countries)
– Plug-in interaction with other models (e.g. PRIMES in EU)
– Web 2.0 technology.
– Download, MODIFY and share input data  develop policy
scenarios. 9

10. The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework
including near-term climate impacts
PM HFCs
(BC, SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2O PFCs
OC) SF6
Health impacts:
PM (Loss in life expectancy)
O3 (Premature mortality)
Vegetation damage:
O3 (AOT40/fluxes)
Acidification
(Excess of critical loads)
Eutrophication
(Excess of critical loads)
Climate impacts:
Long-term (GWP100)
Near-term forcing
(in Europe and global mean
forcing)
Black carbon deposition
to the arctic 10

11. The GAINS approach
for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies
(GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)
IIASA’s GAINS
optimization model
PM SO2 NH3 NOx VOC GHGs
Health Eutrophication Acidification Ozone Policy
target on
GHG
Policy targets on air quality emissions
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12. GAINS Pakistan – the Approach
• Compilation of time-series data at five-year intervals
from 1990 to 2030 (past and projected)
• 4 administrative regions of Pakistan: 1) Punjab, 2)
Sind, 3) Karachi, and 4) North West Frontier
Provinces (NWFP)- Baluchistan
• Activity data for
– Macro-economic indicators (GDP, population, VA at factor cost in
sectors such as energy, tertiary sector, construction and
manufacturing industry)
– Agriculture
– Energy (including transport), and
– Industrial and other processes
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13. GAINS framework – air pollution part
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14. Sectors in GAINS
Energy Transport Agriculture Processes Other
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PP Cars Livestock Cement Glue
Boilers Trucks Crop area Aluminum Leather
Residential Buses Fertilizer Fertilizer Paint
Refinery 2-stroke Grassland Mining Waste-water
&tc Air, Ships Soils &tc &tc
&tc
&tc
43 26 32 106 53
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15. Activities in Sectors
Sector Activity Unit
Power plants Hard Coal PJ
Brown Coal PJ
Natural Gas PJ
…
Refineries Crude oil processed PJ
...
Dairy cows Cows in liquid manure M#
management
….
Transport Trucks driving with diesel M#
…
Total: 888 combinations for each geographic region 15

16. Energy (fuels)
• Coal and lignite • Not considered for Pakistan:
– Hydrogen
• Petroleum products – Heat
– Geothermal energy, etc.
• Natural gas
• Hydro power
• Nuclear power
• Biomass fuels
• Other renewable energy sources
• (Electricity) 16

17. Macro-economic development and energy use
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18. Fuel consumption - trends
• Fuel consumption increases across all sectors
• 2005: domestic sector - largest consumer of energy (39%)
• 2030: power and industrial sector - larger consumer of energy (51%) 18

19. Energy consumption across regions/provinces
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20. Energy consumption across sectors in regions
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21. Industrial & other processes
• Construction and mining activities
• Primary and secondary aluminium production
• Other non-ferrous metals
• Iron and steel production
• Cement and lime production
• Bricks production
• Production of chemicals
• Production in paper pulp mills
• Oil and gas related parameters
• Storage and handling related parameters
• Wastewater related parameters
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22. Projections of agricultural activities
200%
180%
160%
140%
Relative to 2005
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Cattle Chicken Horses Buffalos Camels Fertilizer use
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23. GAINS framework – air pollution part
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24. Measures and Technologies
• Technical vs. non-technical measures
• Appropriate detail?
• Appropriate scale?
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25. GAINS Scenario(s)
• Current legislation (CLE)
– Implementation of emission control measures that are
currently laid down in Pakistani legislation (until 2005)
• Advanced control technology (ACT)
– Implementation of control measures applied in industrialized
countries
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26. Legislative framework and environment related policies
• National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP), 2001 • National Environmental Policy, 2005
– Water supply management
• National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS) – Air quality and noise
– Waste management
• Pakistan Clean Air Programme (PCAP) – Forestry
– Biodiversity and protected areas
• National Policies and Strategies – Climate change and ozone depletion
– National Conservation Strategy, 1992 – Energy efficiency and renewables
– National Environmental Policy, 2005 – Agriculture and livestock
– National Sanitation Policy – Multilateral environmental agreements
– National Water Policy – Cross-sectoral guidelines (poverty,
population, gender, health, trade, local
– National Drinking Water Policy governance, disaster management)
– National Forest Policy
– National Rangeland Policy • Energy Policies and Actions
– National Operational Strategy for CDM – Policy for power generation (2002)
– National energy conservation policy
– Policy for development of renewable energy
for power generation
Source: World Bank (2009); Ayaz (2010) – Energy security action plan (2005-2030) 26

27. Options to control emissions of air pollutants
Stationary sources:
• SO2 (180 control options)
– Use of low sulfur fuels, In-furnace control , Flue gases desulphurization, Process
emissions controls
• NOx (400 control options)
– Combustion modification, Catalytic and non-catalytic reduction
• NH3 (110 control options)
– Dietary changes, Animal housing adaptation and air purification, Manure storage and
application techniques, Urea substitution
• VOC (500 control options)
– Basic management techniques, Solvent substitution, End-of-pipe measures
• PM (850 control options)
– Cyclones, ESP, other Filters, Cleaner industrial processes, Improved boilers and
stoves, Good practices
Mobile sources:
• EURO standards
• Non-road EURO equivalents

28. Costs
• Total costs are determined by combination of
– activity levels
– control strategies
– unit costs
Costs = Activity level
* % of capacity controlled
* unit cost
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29. GAINS framework – air pollution part
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30. Emissions
• Total emissions are determined by combination of
– activity levels
– control strategies
– emission factors
Emissions = Activity level
* % of capacity controlled
* abated emission factor
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31. Air pollutant emissions by sector
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32. GAINS framework – air pollution part
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33. Example: Pakistan
Ambient concentrations
of PM2.5 in Pakistan
for 2020
CLE ACT
Health impacts due to
ambient concentration
of PM2.5 in 2020
Source: Munir (2008) CLE – 100 months ACT – 60 months 33

34. Summary
• Current economic growth will counteract ongoing efforts to improve air
pollution problem in Pakistan unless pollution control laws are
significantly upgraded.
• Advanced emission control technologies are available to maintain
acceptable levels of air quality despite the pressure from growing
economic activities.
• Costs of implementing air pollution control measures prescribed in the
current legislation are estimated more than 0.2 percent of GDP until
2020, and this share would increase to 1.0 percent in 2030 with the
application of ACT.
• A cost-effective strategy may help to reduce costs for air pollution
control as compared to conventional approaches.
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35. The GAINS model is freely accessible on the Internet:
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
• Access to on-line versions
– South Asia
– China
– Europe
– Annex-I
– Global
• Policy reports, user tutorials,
model documentation, etc.
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36. Data management
Continue analysis
Download Upload
Update:
• Activity projections
• Policy assumptions
• Technology characteristics
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